Analyst Talk - Timothy J Smith – Quantifying the Unquantifiable

Episode: 00317 Released on May 4, 2026 Description:  This week on Analyst Talk, Jason sits down with Timothy J. Smith, a former CIA analyst who helped reshape how intelligence professionals think about data and decision-making. Tim shares his journey from building a UN voting analysis tool that uncovered global alignment trends to leading the development of the Global Power Index (an effort focused on quantifying national power in a meaningful, actionable way). He explains how analysts can turn complex, qualitative concepts into measurable insights, while still acknowledging uncertainty. The conversation also dives into analytic tradecraft, emphasizing how clear writing and audience-focused communication are essential for impact. Whether you're working with data, briefing leadership, or refining your craft, this episode offers practical lessons on turning analysis into influence. 🎧 Listen, share, and keep talking! [Note:  Description produced by ChatGPT.] Name Drops: David Singer (00:22:40), David Cariens (01:18:21) Public Service Announcements: Robert Aboumitri (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-robert-aboumitri-the-triple-v-analyst/) Megan Cruz (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-megan-cruz-from-burnout-to-leadership/) Dr. Greg Thomas (https://www.leapodcasts.com/e/analyst-talk-dr-greg-thomas-%e2%80%93-from-organized-crime-to-geoint/) Related Links: https://www.cia.gov/ https://www.rand.org/ https://rcmp.ca/en https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Fast-Slow-Daniel-Kahneman/dp/0374533555 Association(s) Mentioned: Vendor(s) Mentioned: Contact:  https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothy-j-smith-66b1b9173/ , [email protected]    Transcript:  https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/aengqh3v6usnjep7/TimSmith_transcript.pdf  Podcast Writer: Podcast Researcher: Theme Song: Written and Recorded by The Rough & Tumble. Find more of their music at www.theroughandtumble.com. Logo: Designed by Kyle McMullen. Please visit www.moderntype.com for any printable business forms and planners. Podcast Email: [email protected]  Podcast Webpage: www.leapodcasts.com  Podcast X: @leapodcasts 00:00:17 – Introducing Timothy 00:04:13 – Getting recruited by the CIA 00:10:55 – Building the UN voting tool 00:17:41 – Developing the Global Power Index 00:30:12 – Break: Aboumitri, Cruz, & Thomas 00:32:22 – Measuring hard-to-quantify concepts 00:51:09 – Transition to consulting & training 00:52:32 – Break: Aboumitri, Cruz, & Thomas 00:58:17 – Writing principles for analysts 01:11:22 – Advice for analysts 01:14:00 – Personal Interests:  Out of the Park Baseball 01:20:53 – Word to the World