Analyzing the Human Toll of Myanmar's Civil War

Su Mon is a senior analyst with Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) specializing in conflict dynamics and democracy in the Asia-Pacific. Her focus is on Myanmar, where her independent, non-profit organization collects real time data and analysis.According to Su Mon and ACLED, the death toll from all sides since the civil war erupted with a coup d’etat in February 2021 is about to hit 100,000 with the conflict entering a stalemate.Of particular recent concern are allegations of atrocities committed against the Rohingya by the Arakan Army (AA) in 2024-2025, during its successful offensives in Rakhine State, and whether the Rohingya can return home from the refugee camps in Bangladesh.Su Mon said the AA had not fully denied the allegations but argued militants from the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army and Rohingya recruited by the military had intermingled with civilians, resulting in civilian casualties.“Notably, these incidents occurred after the Myanmar military began recruiting Rohingyas and were reportedly cooperating with Rohingya insurgent groups to counter the AA,” she told The Diplomat’s Luke Hunt.Since then, clashes between the AA and Rohingya armed groups have intensified, accompanied by increased violence against Rohingya civilians by multiple actors, including the military, the AA, and Rohingya insurgents. It’s a trend, Su Mon says, that will be difficult to reverse.“These developments suggest that conditions remain unsafe for Rohingya repatriation, regardless of who controls Rakhine state or whether a ceasefire is reached between the military and the AA," she said.“Without credible security guarantees from all parties and broader political arrangements that address the underlying drivers of the conflict, Rohingya communities will remain vulnerable to violence and displacement."