Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind

In the third episode of First Principles with Andy Constan, Andy breaks down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.Follow First Principles on SpotifyFollow First Principles of Apple PodcastsTopics covered:Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public marketsHow Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO workedWhy issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricingThe shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuanceWhy AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for sharesHow hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stockThe economic test for whether AI investment pays offDisinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacementWhy the current economy is still supported by consumptionThe role of wealth effects and consumer dissavingWhy falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressureWhat Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuanceHow Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheetTimestamps:00:00 Intro and key themes04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply26:42 The economic test for AI tokens32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy?41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet58:42 Closing thoughtsNo information on this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed in the podcast may be holdings of the firms of the hosts or their clients.