Are The Markets Just Gambling Now?

Polymarket is a strange place. You can bet on the price of Ethereum, whether Russia and Ukraine will agree to a ceasefire this year or who the next French prime minister will be. As silly as this might sound, Polymarket is worth $8 billion, according to an investment by the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. This deal comes on the heels of the new partnership between the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and sports betting site FanDuel. Now, in addition to betting on wheat futures, you can bet your life savings on the Lions making it to the Super Bowl. (Side note: Please do not put your life savings on the Lions going to the Super Bowl).  For decades, Wall Street has fought the accusation that investing was “just gambling.” Banks, financial institutions, regulators and the US government have spent decades establishing credibility, legitimacy, oversight and institutions to distinguish Wall Street as much as possible from the nickel slots. Now it seems that Wall Street is embracing its inner casino. Does this shift mean investment banks, hedge funds and bond traders are really all about gambling now? Is there a difference between shorting Tesla and picking which Taylor Swift song will be the least streamed this week? (At least $500,000 is riding on Honey—check out our recent podcast on this very subject. This week , Bloomberg Odd Lots podcast co-host Joe Weisenthal joins Max and Stacey to talk betting markets, investing and what these new partnerships mean for the economy.  Also this week, Casey Newton, host of the Hard Fork podcast, joins to talk about the future of artificial intelligence. Worries about AI companies and technologies being over-valued have been making the rounds. If AI is indeed a bubble, the economic implications could be dire. At the same time, companies, think tanks and workers are desperately trying to game out what kind of impact AI will have on jobs and industries. Everyone, it seems, is placing their bets—and the stakes are high.  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.