Are We Already in World War III? Ukraine, Iran, and the New Global Conflict | Paul Poast

Are the wars in Ukraine and Iran separate conflicts—or part of something larger? In this episode of At the Water’s Edge, Scott sits down with Paul Poast, Associate Professor at the University of Chicago, to unpack his argument that we may already be living in a new era of “world war.” Rather than a 20th-century style global conflict, Poast explains how today’s wars can be defined by multiple interconnected theaters, where major powers compete indirectly across regions—and where decisions in one conflict shape outcomes in another. Read is NYT OPED: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/12/opinion/international-world/iran-ukraine-world-war.html The conversation explores: What actually defines a “world war” in today’s context How the wars in Ukraine and Iran are strategically connected Whether U.S. and Russian actions across theaters are a form of great power balancing The role of alliances—and why strained relationships may still hold How munitions shortages, oil markets, and second-order effects shape modern conflict Why policymakers may be “making it up as they go” in a rapidly evolving environment And why in a conflict like this, success may mean finding the least bad outcome, not outright victory This is a wide-ranging discussion on how to think about modern warfare, great power competition, and the risks of escalation in an increasingly interconnected global system.