Asia's oil scramble is reshaping crude markets, with Lin Ye and Priya Walia

This episode was recorded on Thursday, 30 April 2026. Join us for our annual Summits in Singapore, Houston and London: https://rystad.info/4dgjr2qLet’s Talk Energy and look at how oil-importing countries in Asia are coping with the loss of vital Middle East supply as benchmark prices hit four-year highs above $120. Following the start of the war in the Middle East, many refiners in Asia, who are the largest buyers of barrels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, have spent the two months scrambling to find alternative supplies and bidding up spot cargoes of certain grades. But, at least in one country, that is changing. Recently, China’s refiners have flipped their approach and are selling cargoes back into the market, as export curbs, price controls and price-sensitive consumers hurt the economics of turning the crude into fuel. The change comes at a time when so-called alternative supplies, including those from Russia and Iranian cargoes that had continued to transit until the most recent US blockade of Hormuz, come under increasing pressure. But first, we look at the dynamics surrounding the departure of the UAE from Opec+ and how it could impact the markets in the near-term and further into the future.  How are major Asian importers finding the barrels they need at a price they can afford, while also shielding consumers from higher fuel costs? How has China’s strategic shift impacted both physical and futures markets and how might we expect that behavior to evolve?  And will sanctions on one of China’s largest teapot refineries create a bidding war with Indian refiners over a limited available volume of Russian barrels.   Related Analysis China resells crude as Asia absorbs the supply shock unevenly (clients only) The oil chokepoint: China’s evolving playbook for Strait of Hormuz crisis  (clients only) The UAE's exit and the limits of OPEC+ control: Special report #4, Middle East conflict (available to non-clients) US sanctions on China’s Hengli aim to choke Iran - petroyuan gets a boost (clients only) Oil Trading Market Update: Demand destruction is here, but not where you may think (available to non-clients) UAE’s OPEC exit can help alleviate pain for Indian refineries  (clients only) Gulf shut-ins could reduce regional crude output by 70% if US-Iran war drags on (available to non-clients) Russian supply hit by drone attacks, but worst-case risks fade for now (clients only)  Related Episodes How the Middle East war is reshaping Asia’s upstream strategy, with Prateek Pandey The Hormuz crisis and the real cost of a barrel of oil What China’s oil stockpiling means for OPEC+, prices and global trade, with Lin Ye  Let’s Talk Energy is a Rystad Energy Production.    Produced by Elliot Busby & Både Og.    Executive producers: Noah Brenner, Elliot Busby, Evodie Fleury-Greaker & Erik Means.    Follow us on:   LinkedIn    YouTube    Instagram    X