August 03, 2026

Good morning! Today is Monday, August 3rd 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On the 156th day of the Iran War, President Trump called off weekend airstrikes and claimed a deal had been reached to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran flatly denied any agreement and dismissed the announcement as a fresh lie. Esfandyar Batmanghelidj reports from a three-hour debate with a leading Iranian analyst that Tehran's policy establishment has concluded no deal with the Trump administration is achievable, pointing to unfulfilled confidence-building measures, a widening Rubio-Vance rift, and the president's own inconstancy. Jennifer Kavanagh argues that despite Pentagon warnings shaping Trump's hesitation, the United States is not actually running out of missiles to fight Iran—the real munitions crisis is a deeper industrial problem that transcends this war. and now for the details. We begin with the latest developments in the Iran War, now in its 156th day. On Saturday night, President Trump called off anticipated airstrikes on Iran, announcing on Truth Social that Tehran had agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end what he described as its nuclear threat. Trump said the United States and Israel would hold off attacks because, in his words, the perimeters of a deal had been reached. Iran, however, quickly denied any such agreement. Iran's Mehr News agency, citing military officials, called Trump's claim "nothing but a new lie," and the Fars news agency reported no agreement on Hormuz had been made. As Harrison Berger reports, Trump spoke by phone Saturday with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who expressed concern about the president's plans to escalate militarily. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned counterparts in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan that Iran would act decisively if the U.S. and Israel followed through with massive strikes. Meanwhile, Axios reports Qatari mediators held separate talks with Omani officials, Araghchi, and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on management of the Strait. The memorandum of understanding signed last month between Trump and the Iranian president broke down largely over disagreements about Hormuz. From Tehran, the mood on diplomacy has darkened considerably. As Esfandyar Batmanghelidj reports, Iranian policy analysts and officials increasingly believe a deal with the Trump administration is simply not achievable. Batmanghelidj recently joined a three-hour debate with Majid Shakeri, a former foreign policy advisor influential in Tehran, who argued Iran must now focus on proactively managing an ongoing American threat rather than pursuing a diplomatic breakthrough. The pessimism, Batmanghelidj writes, rests on hard counting. Iranian analysts point to the administration's failure to execute even basic confidence-building measures from the memorandum of understanding signed earlier this year—no Iranian assets were released, and an oil export waiver was issued, never fully implemented, and then rescinded. They point to a widening rift between the Rubio and Vance camps inside the cabinet, and to a sense that President Trump is too erratic to hold to his own agreements. Even Saudi Arabia, Batmanghelidj notes, could not shield its recent nuclear deal from that inconstancy. His conclusion is striking: rather than press for a comprehensive deal Washington seems unable to deliver, the best path may be for Trump to step back entirely, allowing regional powers—Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—to advance a neighborhood diplomacy that has, over the past decade, done more than Washington to prevent a full regional war. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.