August 04, 2026

Good morning! Today is Tuesday, August 4th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Jude Russo argues that Washington's cycle of extravagant threats and equally extravagant walkbacks—most recently over Iran—is corroding American diplomatic credibility and pushing the country toward the costly lever of force. Iran has flatly denied President Trump's claim that negotiations would begin Monday, even as oil markets briefly swung on the news and CENTCOM reportedly asked analysts for "creative and unconventional" ways to pressure Tehran. Fraser Myers examines why Labour's pro-EU wing is quietly eyeing a return to Brussels—not because voters want it, but because rejoining could lock in open borders, Net Zero, and other policies beyond the reach of British democracy. and now for the details. We begin this morning with a hard look at American credibility on the world stage. Last week saw a familiar cycle out of Washington: rumblings of a massive escalation against Iran, reports that CENTCOM's Admiral Brad Cooper had drawn up a "go-big" option to strike Iranian military assets, and speculation about hitting so-called "Pickaxe Mountain" near the Natanz nuclear site. On Friday, President Trump himself said the U.S. would "be hitting them very hard," and officials leaked to the Wall Street Journal that an attack was imminent. Then, by Sunday, the attack was off — Trump citing interventions from Gulf allies wary of Iranian retaliation against their oil and desalination infrastructure. The president claimed negotiations with Iran would begin Monday. The Iranians promptly denied it. As Jude Russo writes at The American Conservative, this pattern of extravagant threats followed by equally extravagant walkbacks is becoming its own kind of problem. Russo argues that America's diplomatic credibility is eroding — through revised premises, toggled mediation channels, and the use of negotiations as cover for surprise attacks. He points to Trump's post-signing effort to retroactively condition a Saudi civilian nuclear deal on normalization with Israel as another example. His warning: as threats and agreements lose their power, Washington will be pushed toward the one lever that remains — physical force, which he calls limited, expensive, and messy. Russo notes that Iranian elites, according to reporting by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj in TAC, are increasingly convinced the United States is structurally incapable of honoring any agreement it signs. Salvaging that credit, Russo suggests, may require follow-through on the concessive parts of the June memorandum — sanctions relief and the like — and, at minimum, an end to apocalyptic but empty threats. Staying with the Iran file: Iranian officials have publicly denied President Trump's claim that talks to end the war would begin Monday. Trump told reporters Sunday evening that negotiations were set to start the following afternoon, and that he had cancelled planned attacks because of the development. But Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said flatly that "at present, we are not having any negotiations with the US." Iran acknowledged separate talks with Oman focused on establishing a new route for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, but Baghaei tied any real change in the Strait to a lifting of the American naval blockade and an end to what he called U.S. military aggression. Harrison Berger reports for TAC that Trump's remarks did move oil markets briefly — Brent crude fell five percent Monday, back below $84 a barrel — though Iran's denial produced no significant follow-on movement. AAA has the national average price of regular gasoline at $4.10, and Trump used Truth Social to publicly pressure Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and other oil companies to bring retail prices down. Berger also notes CNN reporting, citing anonymous sources, that CENTCOM's intelligence branch has asked analysts to develop "creative and unconventional" ways to pressure and punish Iran — even as the administration publicly pivots toward diplomacy. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.