August 13, 2026

Good morning! Today is Thursday, August 13th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Day 166 of the Iran War brings dueling claims over a Hormuz ceasefire, a deadly Houthi strike in the Bab el-Mandeb, and mounting economic pain at the American pump. James Pinkerton likens Washington's munitions panic to Britain's 1915 Shell Crisis, arguing the real failure is strategic — underestimated drones, a Patriot pipeline that won't catch up until 2030, and a CENTCOM still pushing for more bombardment. Karoline Leavitt announces she will step down as White House Press Secretary at the end of August, citing her young children, with no successor yet named. and now for the details. We begin with the Iran War, now in its one hundred and sixty-sixth day. A senior Iranian official told Reuters Wednesday that there are no ongoing discussions between Tehran and Washington to extend the ceasefire under the June memorandum of understanding. That contradicts a report from Turkey's Anadolu news agency, which cited anonymous Pakistani sources claiming an extension to the sixty-day ceasefire had been agreed to. Pakistani officials also claim the U.S. and Iran are nearing "some sort of arrangement" over the Strait of Hormuz, but Qatar, Iran, and Oman all describe those talks as strictly bilateral between Muscat and Tehran. On Truth Social, President Trump insisted, quote, "The U.S.A. has total control over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT." Shipping data tells a murkier story. Kpler reported fourteen Hormuz crossings Tuesday, while Reuters counted only eight — which would be the lowest daily total since August 5th. In the Bab el-Mandeb, Yemen's Houthis struck the Egypt-flagged Tihamah, killing at least four crew members and two first responders. Harrison Berger reports Brent Crude sat at $88.75 a barrel Wednesday morning, with the national average gas price at $4.04. Moody's Analytics estimates the war has now cost the typical American household about $1,000 in fuel costs and Pentagon-related taxes. Staying with the war, a debate has erupted in Washington over whether the U.S. is running dangerously low on precision munitions and missile interceptors. Reuters reported the U.S. has used "virtually all" of its long-range precision missiles, and Fox News cited data suggesting nearly 80 percent of key interceptors have been depleted. The White House flatly denies it. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt called the reports "100 percent fake news," and the President has vowed to hunt down the leakers. In a sweeping essay for The American Conservative, James P. Pinkerton draws a parallel to Britain's 1915 "Shell Crisis" during the First World War, when Prime Minister Asquith's government fell over munitions shortages and David Lloyd George rose as the "Welsh Wizard" of wartime mobilization. Pinkerton argues the deeper problem isn't just shell counts — it's that American war planners underestimated Iranian and Houthi drones, and that the Patriot supply isn't projected to meet demand until roughly 2030. He notes CNN's reporting that Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Caine is "looking for an off-ramp," while CENTCOM keeps agitating for more bombardment. Pinkerton's judgment: Trump tried on the role of War President, and it didn't fit. He points to TAC's Jude Russo and the new Mecca Agreement — Saudi Arabia to be defended by Pakistan and Turkey — as a sign the Gulf may build its own stabilizing order. Trump, Pinkerton concludes, would do well to return to being the Peace and Prosperity President. A major personnel shift at the White House. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will step down at the end of August, President Trump announced Wednesday. Leavitt, who returned to the podium after the birth of her daughter, said in a statement on X that she could not "be the best mom my two young children deserve while devoting the constant time, energy, and attention required" of the role. President Trump called her one of his most trusted aides and said she will remain a top outside adviser and a Republican voice heading into the November midterms. Joseph Addington reports that Leavitt served as an assistant press secretary in the first Trump administration, later as communications director for Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, and ran unsuccessfully for Congress in New Hampshire in 2022 before joining the 2024 Trump campaign as national press secretary. Her successor has not yet been named. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.