August 14, 2026

Good morning! Today is Friday, August 14th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. On day 167 of the Iran war, the CIA reportedly doubted Israeli intelligence about a plot against Trump's life that sent him fleeing Air Force One in a catering cart, as the Pentagon has now lost a quarter of its Reaper drone fleet. Eldar Mamedov reports that Tehran, judging Washington incapable of honoring any deal, has settled on a strategy of "neither war nor peace" while waiting out Trump's term. But that patience carries a price: as Iran leans harder on proxies like the Houthis, it risks driving Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey—now bound by the new Mecca Joint Defense Agreement—into open hostility. and now for the details. We begin on day one hundred sixty-seven of the Iran war, where new reporting from the Washington Post raises fresh questions about the intelligence driving American decisions. According to the Post, the CIA doubted the veracity of a purported Iranian threat against the President's life during last month's NATO summit in Ankara. That threat prompted Trump to secretly leave Air Force One via a catering cart and fly home on a second plane. The intelligence, it turns out, came from Israel's spy services. One U.S. intelligence official described the assassination threat as, quote, "Israeli-derived, not U.S.-generated, and viewed by the CIA as low confidence." Meanwhile, the Pentagon has lost at least forty-five MQ-9 Reaper drones during the war—about a quarter of its total fleet—amounting to over one point three billion dollars in equipment. On the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's central military headquarters flatly denied Trump's claim of American "total control" over the waterway, insisting no commercial ship or oil tanker will pass without permission from Iran's armed forces. And in Israel, Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel will, quote, "under no circumstances," withdraw troops from occupied territory in Lebanon, Gaza, or Syria. Harrison Berger notes that the International Energy Agency now predicts oil demand will fall by one point six million barrels a day this year, with continued war disruptions undermining global supply. Brent crude sits at eighty-six dollars sixty cents a barrel, and AAA reports the national average price of gas at four dollars and seven cents per gallon. Staying with the Iran conflict, a senior advisor to Iran's Parliament Speaker was recently quoted saying, "Trump will not reach an agreement with us. We will put up with him until his term ends." That posture reflects a broader shift in Tehran. Following the February U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and the assassination of moderate figure Ali Larijani, Iran's Supreme National Security Council has been reshuffled, with hardline IRGC veteran Mohsen Rezaei now ascendant. As Eldar Mamedov reports, Tehran has concluded that Washington is simply too dysfunctional to honor any agreement. A prior memorandum, brokered with Pakistani and Qatari mediation, required Washington to lift sanctions and unfreeze Iranian assets—commitments Tehran says were not kept. So Iran is pursuing what one advisor calls "neither war nor peace," betting on strategic patience until a new American president takes office. But Mamedov warns this strategy carries hidden costs. To keep pressure on Washington, Iran must lean harder on proxies like the Houthis, whose closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb to Saudi vessels is antagonizing Riyadh. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have just signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, partly aimed at Houthi threats. Mamedov argues that if Tehran waits out Trump while its proxies alienate its neighbors, Iran could find itself isolated from the very regional powers now laying the groundwork for a new Middle East. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.