August 20, 2026

Good morning! Today is Thursday, August 20th 2026, and this is The American Conservative's Morning Brief. Ted Snider argues Ukraine is losing the air, land, and economic wars and will soon be forced back to talks on worse terms than the 2022 Istanbul deal that Washington and London pressed Kiev to abandon. On day 173 of the Iran war, the Financial Times reports Tehran is weighing strikes on U.S. assets in southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria's Bezmer airbase, as the UAE suspends trade with Iran and gas prices remain elevated. In a stunning Florida Democratic Senate primary upset, DSA-aligned Angie Nixon defeated heavy favorite Alexander Vindman, the retired Army officer and key witness in the 2019 Trump impeachment. and now for the details. Our top story this morning concerns the war in Ukraine, where the strategic picture continues to darken for Kiev. A forty-day drone campaign ordered by President Volodymyr Zelensky back in June, aimed at forcing Russia back to the negotiating table, has by most accounts failed. Over the summer, Russian forces have advanced toward the cities of Ukraine's so-called fortress belt, with Konstantinovka reportedly falling or on the verge of falling. Ukraine faces a severe manpower shortage, its supply of Patriot air defense interceptors is at or near zero, and new jet-powered Russian drones are outpacing Ukrainian defenses, battering the port of Odessa. Writing for The American Conservative, Ted Snider argues that Ukraine, not Russia, now looks likely to be the first party forced back to talks — and that the terms on offer will almost certainly be worse than what was available in the spring of 2022. Snider assembles an extensive record of testimony from Ukrainian negotiators, foreign mediators, and Western officials indicating that a deal was within reach at the Istanbul talks that year. Ukrainian negotiator Davyd Arakhamia described the agreement as an eight out of ten, with Russia prepared to end the war in exchange for Ukrainian neutrality. Oleksiy Arestovych called it the most profitable agreement Ukraine could have reached. Snider catalogues statements from former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, Swiss ambassador Jean-Daniel Ruch, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, all pointing to the same conclusion: that Washington and London pressed Kiev to walk away. Then-Senator J.D. Vance made the same point on the Senate floor. Snider concludes that after hundreds of thousands of casualties, millions displaced, and vast territory lost, it is time to apologize to Ukrainians for pushing them off the path of negotiations in the first months of the war. Turning to the Iran war, now in its one hundred seventy-third day. The Financial Times reports that Tehran is weighing retaliatory options against U.S. assets in Europe should President Trump further escalate the conflict. Harrison Berger reports for The American Conservative that Iranian planners have reportedly considered strikes in southeastern European countries such as Bulgaria, which last month approved American military use of its Bezmer airbase for refueling. Bulgaria's defense minister had assured legislators that hosting U.S. aircraft would not make his country a party to the war. Iran has also weighed targeting underwater fiber-optic cables in the Strait of Hormuz. The chief of staff of Iran's armed forces warned Wednesday that any assistance to U.S. military operations would be treated as direct participation in the conflict. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced it would suspend all trade with Iran, citing regional escalations, and accused Tehran of firing two ballistic missiles at maritime traffic in the Persian Gulf — a claim Iran denies. The war continues to weigh on American households at the pump. Brent crude sat above ninety-two dollars a barrel Wednesday morning, and AAA recorded the national average price of regular gasoline at four dollars and nine cents per gallon. Those are today's highlights. For the full stories and more, visit theamericanconservative.com. Thank you for starting your morning with us.