Bayesian Teaching Enables Probabilistic Reasoning in Large Language Models

This paper from Google Research investigates the ability of large language models (LLMs) to perform probabilistic reasoning in interactive settings, specifically focusing on their capacity to infer user preferences over multiple interactions. The research finds that off-the-shelf LLMs struggle with this task compared to an optimal Bayesian model, demonstrating limited improvement as more information becomes available. To address this, the study introduces Bayesian teaching, a method where LLMs are fine-tuned by mimicking the predictions of the optimal Bayesian model. This approach significantly enhances the LLMs' performance on the training task and enables generalization to new domains, suggesting that LLMs can learn and apply probabilistic reasoning strategies effectively. The findings highlight both the limitations of current LLMs in dynamic, uncertain environments and the potential of guided fine-tuning to instill complex reasoning abilities.