Beneath the Surface of Risk-On: Are We in the Calm Before the Avalanche?| 2025/5/2_Night

Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?Or is it the calm before an avalanche?What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?＿＿＿Free Weekly NewsletterSign up here：（⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribepage.io/ni225op⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠）