Best Bets For Texas State/ Best Bets TEXAS LONGHORNS LIVE CALL IN SHOW 1

Texas Longhorns Live — Best Bets vs. Texas State + Thursday Call-In Hosts: Thomas Bresee & Matthew Miller | Caller: Darrell Special Thursday best-bets edition (FanDuel sponsor). First of the weekly in-season series. Wi-Fi drops on Matt early; show still covers the slate, process goals, Ohio State week, and a live call. 00:00–04:00 — Open + Tommy’s main-game bets Weekly Thursday best-bets show for Texas (and Texas State) throughout the season. Week 1 slate is thin on film; more juice later. Texas -29.5 (-110 FanDuel). Tommy feels very good. Sark has stressed scoreboard/CFP optics; home openers under Sark average ~35-point wins (Sam Houston last year). Texas State is better and faster (high-pace team) and could backdoor late, but Texas defense should create sacks, INTs, TFLs, and fumbles that keep TXST from settling in. Bo Sparks and Chris Donwell will have spurts; Texas should answer with a big play every time. Over 59.5 (-110). Both sides pedal-to-metal. Texas State was one of the fastest teams last year. Texas will hit explosives even if down-to-down efficiency isn’t perfect (Relique Brown, Ryan Wingo, Cam Coleman). Tommy can see Texas scoring 50 by itself against a rebuilt TXST defense that struggled a year ago (four one-score losses). Lean ~28-0 at half, then keep rolling. 04:00–07:15 — Matt joins; run-game emphasis + 3Q bet Matt likes a team rushing over (main backs) more than the team passing over. Goal of the game/season: take it off Arch Manning’s shoulders. Relique Brown, Hollywood Smothers, Derek Cooper should tell the story—not Arch scrambling. TXST gave up ~180 rush YPG last year; if Texas can’t clear 200, OL questions linger. Texas -7.5 3rd quarter (+130 FanDuel). Sark home-opener 3Q point differential: 80–6 across five games (stat via Tyler Horka / Inside Texas). Expect TXST to want the ball first to avoid playing from behind; that would give Texas the second-half open. Plus-money hook at 7.5 is appealing. 07:15–12:20 — Anytime TDs, 1Q, Wingo, TXST team total Hollywood Smothers anytime TD (Matt). Six–seven guys could hit; wealth should be spread; wouldn’t shock if all three main backs score. Look down the depth chart too. Derek Cooper anytime TD (+310 FanDuel) (Tommy). Red-zone/run-game emphasis; extra snaps for second-line guys. Trevor Goosby will play but come out early; Andre Kojo gets the bulk. Cooper has popped all offseason. Texas -6.5 1st quarter (Matt). Shocked the number is that low—a 7–0 first quarter cashes. Sark has talked tempo and starting faster after past slow starts. Ryan Wingo over 48.5 receiving yards (Tommy). Could hit on the first play (Vandy-style screen/swing). TXST will have to account for Cam Coleman; Wingo should see a lot of singles. Sark praised him Thursday. Last year a high share of opening plays were Wingo screens. One catch can clear the number. Texas State under 14.5 team total (both; Tommy’s least favorite). Tommy’s score prediction was 41–13. Red-zone questions: Greg Burrell dismissed in April; Terrence Burgess Jr. and Jalen Jenkins now the run group. Short TXST WRs (5-11 / 5-9) are better in space than in tight. Could be a FG-fest (12 points after multiple stalled trips). 12:20–16:50 — Recap of the card + what “winning” this game actually means Tommy’s card: Texas -29.5 | Over 59.5 | Texas -7.5 3Q | Wingo o48.5 rec | Cooper ATD Matt’s card: Team rush over (main backs / ~200+ implied) | Texas -6.5 1Q | TXST u14.5 | Smothers ATD Process over final score (USC–San Jose State reminder): Rebuilt run game + OL look right vs. a defense they should dominate. Fast start. Cleaner penalties. Arch high completion %; Wingo/Coleman drops ≤1 over 2–3 quarters. Defense: get to the QB, stop the run. Fun later: KJ Lacey, Diabell first snaps, who is at LG with the ones. If it’s not put away by half (~28-3 / 28-7), Ohio State week gets nervy. 16:50–21:20 — Call-in open, Week 1 viewing, Ohio State notes StreamYard open until 7 p.m. CT tonight (test night); longer windows once Ohio State / Oklahoma / LSU / A&M weeks hit. Postgame Saturday ~6:45–7:00 p.m. ET, earlier if it’s a blowout. Week 1 nationally is weak. Ohio State–Ball State is 12:30 p.m. ET at the Shoe (odd window). Watch Arthur Smith’s first OSU offense vs. last year’s version; won’t show the full Week 2 package. Keldrick Luster (Ball State, listed ~2.50 QB) is a name Tommy likes. Other stray games: Houston–Oregon State, Alabama–ECU (Keelan Russell / Duncanville angle). Texas–Ohio State preview flavor: new OSU OC (Arthur Smith, two-TE guy) vs. new Texas DC (Patricia). Sark has seen Patricia before. OSU TEs are not a strength; Smith’s Falcons run-game identity will test Texas’s front. 21:20–29:50 — Darrell’s call Playbook vs. Texas State (Ohio State next): Matt: Expect deep shots and basics (Coleman gos/posts), establish the run, no trickery. If they have to get cute, that’s a problem. Tommy: Weekly plan looks similar on the surface; wrinkles are tiny (route depths, screen angles). Keep it vanilla. Ohio State has seen Sark. In-game / season metrics: Arch 65%+ completions (UTSA last year was 11-of-24 and messy; opponent doesn’t excuse it). Zero turnovers (camp was noisy; don’t know if it was O or D). Fewer than five penalties; no pre-snap / 3rd-and-3-to-8 killers. Discipline required if they’re chasing 15–16 wins and a title. Magnificent Seven title contenders (Darrell’s list; both hosts agree): Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Ohio State, Indiana, Miami. Tommy: not personally “title or bust,” but the people writing the checks may be. Realities exist where falling short isn’t the end. Matt: Notre Dame / Oregon / Texas are the three most talented rosters. Next step is getting to a national championship (two recent Final Fours; goal-line stands vs. Washington and Ohio State). Must leave with a championship of some kind—SEC title and/or CFP title game. Beating Georgia (SEC or playoff) is the priority “have-to.” Winning the SEC then losing a semi to a clearly better Indiana would still feel like a success to both hosts; check-writers may disagree. Sark bulletin-board material: Rutgers 7, UMass 14 in the second quarter (after it had been 7–7). Cheap motivation without reaching back to App State. 29:50–end — Close See how the card hits. Postgame Saturday. “We’ll see you on Saturday.” Clip-friendly timestamps 00:45–02:30 Texas -29.5 rationale + Sark home-opener history 02:45–03:30 Over 59.5 / pace + explosives 06:15–07:10 Texas -7.5 3Q + 80–6 stat 07:20–08:00 Smothers ATD 08:00–09:05 Cooper ATD + Goosby/Kojo 09:15–09:45 Texas -6.5 1Q 09:50–11:00 Wingo o48.5 + opening-play prediction 11:00–12:15 TXST u14.5 / red-zone / Burrell dismissal 14:50–16:40 Process checklist heading into Ohio State week 21:20–22:50 How much playbook to show 23:10–24:30 Arch 65% / zero TOs / penalties 24:35–28:50 Magnificent 7 + title vs. SEC vs. beat-Georgia debate Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.