Betting Dork: Advanced Stats Day-to-Day Principles

Forum Guest Basewinner joins Host Gill Alexander for their regularly scheduled sabermetrics show, but this time the notion of adherence to advanced stats principles on a day-to-day basis is put to the test.  Would you still bet on the Orioles if the numbers tell you to?  If you get killed on Cleveland one night, would you still bet on them the next if the numbers led you there?  Plus, what MLB pitcher has been unlucky for 3 straight seasons, and Basewinner's 4 MLB plays of the day, on Wednesday's Betting Dork (July 7, 2010).