Betting on War: Inside the $54M Iran Wager Scandal

from The Smerconish Podcast · host Harry Crane, Michael Smerconish

Are these markets more accurate than traditional polling? Do they invite insider trading and corruption? Should Congress ban wagering tied to government decisions? And is betting on regime change ethically different from betting on the Super Bowl? From Iran to Texas Senate races to the Oscars, this conversation explores the explosive rise of prediction markets — and whether they’re a powerful forecasting tool or a dystopian step too far. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What this episode covers

When news broke of a strike targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, prediction markets exploded — with more than $54 million wagered on the outcome. Then came the backlash: frozen trades, reversed bets, and accusations of profiting from war. Michael sits down with Rutgers statistician and prediction markets expert Dr. Harry Crane to unpack what really happened — and what it means for the future of betting on politics, war, and government action. Original air date 5 March 2026.

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Betting on War: Inside the $54M Iran Wager Scandal

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This episode is 29 minutes long.

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This episode was published on March 6, 2026.

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