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That's why they call it money. I'll best save it a lot my free, but you can get up to you. From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's the Motley Fool Money Radio Show.
I'm Chris Ellen joining me in studio this week for Million Dollar Portfolio, Jason Moser, from Motley Fool Explorer, Simon Erickson, and from Motley Fool Pro and Options, Jeff Fisher. Good to see you as always, gentlemen. Hey, hey. It's a drive from Wall Street.
There's a new documentary about Herbalife. You won't want to miss. We'll talk with director Ted Braun, and as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. We begin with a surprising comeback.
Shares of Blackberry. Yes, gentlemen. Blackberry, up 13% on Friday, after fourth quarter profits came in higher than expected. The company that once had 40% market share on smartphones is attempting to remake itself as a software and services company.
Jeff Fisher, how's it going? It's going better than you might expect. I mean, I expected zero, so it is going better than I expect. And the company is probably going to pull it off.
They have more than a billion in that cash, so they're sitting pretty in that regard. They have now just more than a billion in revenue, and I will point out that compares to 20 billion in revenue in 2011. So quite a descent there. And yet it's profitable.
And they're focused, you know, Chris, what was Blackberry known for really aside from the little keyboard on phone? They had to keep on on security. But really security is it. So they're moving into enterprise software that is security focused.
Now, the one thing that I can't get my head around quite yet is where they're going to exactly focus because they're offering software, everything that can track an employee's mobile device and its usage to computer operating systems for guided missiles, to self-driving cars, autonomous cars. So they're really kind of all over the map when I read their transcripts, their conference calls. And I'd like to see where they're going to really hone in on with their software. Enterprise software, Simon.
Not exactly a space they have to themselves. Well, the mobile devices is kind of transitioning, right? We used to know them as smartphones, and now they've become known as Internet of Things devices, which also need really good security. So now I see that Blackberry is referring to this as the enterprise of things.
I mean, it's going to be the next thing we're all hearing about, but again, you need good security. You need good software for lots of little mobile devices buzzing around. I think this is the time where we got to just remind everybody that a clever little one-liner is not an investment thesis, right? I mean, Internet of Things, we can throw around.
Everybody bannies that around. It's like, oh, it's the Internet of Things. Let's invest. Internet of Things is all over the place.
Try to go a little bit further with it. I mean, the enterprise of things that just, I appreciate the fact that yes, that's what they're known for, right? Is that that software side, the security side? But let's just take it one step at a time.
It's true, but the image that they do have is helping them. They signed 3,500 new customers in the last quarter, a 16% increase. And there are some large wins in there, some big well-known companies, and not all of them are in the regulated industries where they've in the past done really well. They're expanding out.
But yeah, I'd like to see where the profit center is going to end up being because they're kind of all over the map right now. Sure, and it's got to be more than security, right? I mean, one of the reasons BlackBerry lost out to the Apple iPhone was because it was all about the user experience that Apple caught up with BlackBerry on the security side of it. But at the end of the day, people were going to buy what's offering the best experience.
BlackBerry's got to understand that. One of the biggest winners on the New York Stock Exchange this week was Restoration Hardware. Shares have 25% after a fourth quarter report that included a pretty big drop in same-store sales, Jason. Why the enthusiasm?
Well, I think the market is probably looking past that same-store sales metric and looking at the projections for the fiscal year of COVID. And they're projecting anywhere in the neighborhood of $1.78 to $2.19 an earnings per share. So we take that at the midpoint and the stock is trading at about 24 times forward estimates, which isn't all that absurd, really, for a company that sells pretty high-end retail goods. Now, that is sort of the limited customer base.
And I think, to me, it's interesting. The membership model sort of pitted that they made here this past year. It's an interesting level they can pull in the short run because I think it does help Stoke results. I'm still skeptical that it actually is something that leads to sustained long-term success and growth.
I mean, it's very easy to justify paying for that membership when you go to buy something from Restoration Hardware. I mean, you buy something for $1,000, you're going to get 25% off of it just for buying that $100 membership. So the numbers make sense right then and there. And I'd also argue that probably most people are shopping at Restoration Hardware, $100, and you're going to really make or break them either.
So then you have to ask yourself, like, longer-term years down the road, how are the renewables numbers looking with this program? And that's what I would focus on more than anything else because at the end of the day, it is a retailer. It is a high-end retailer. And I think that those problems are not quite as easily solved.
I think that membership model is an interesting one. I think it's a neat effort there, but I would pay more attention to the renewal numbers in the coming years to see if it's really gaining interaction. Yeah, the membership model is interesting, Jason, because in a way they're gaming the system. So you can just go to their website.
There's a chandelier for $5,900 regular price. It's only $4,400 if you're a member. So are you going to join for $100? You're going to buy a 25% coupon for $100.
I think that chances you're probably going there that one time that year. You probably don't set foot in that store again for maybe a year. Then that renewal comes up and you're scratching your head wondering why did I get this in the first place? And do I really need it for this?
I think you're right that it comes down to what will renewals be. But even more than that, we'll have that membership and then receiving mailings from Restoration over time, drive you to go back and buy more. Hey, I paid for the membership. I'll buy a new rug there.
I've got the solution. I mean, just a little free streaming on the side, some videos and music. It's a little value add right there. You're using that on a daily basis.
I think you'll probably give Amazon a run for their money. Absolutely. Over the past two years, shares of Dave and Buster's have doubled. Fourth-order profits came in higher than expected this week, but Simon, the company is lowering expectations for 2017.
And probably not a bad idea when you look at what a pretty nice run they've had the last couple years. Well, Jeff, this is a company that's really gaining the system, right? I really like the way that Matt Greer, our producer, described this as this is kind of a casino. They're printing money right now.
They've got amusements that's about 53% of revenue. These are the games that have got really, really high margins after you put them in the stores. And of course, food and beverages is the other half of the business. And of course, people that are older, that are able to drink high margin ticket items is working for them, too.
Chris, the story for me at Dave and Buster's is the unit economics of the new stores that they're building out. They've now got a total of 92 stores and they're hoping about 11 or 12 a year. But the cash on cash return, which means if you took the revenue that they're making, I'm sorry, even though they're making the first year, dividing by the development cost of the stores is at 52% right now. That's fantastic.
That means they're paying off all of the development costs in 20 months, and that's an excellent business proposition for anyone who wants to buy shares. My concern with a company like Dave and Buster's is that it really does seem like such a discretionary spending type of business. We've been in an economic boom here in the US for a bunch of years. And at some point, when the next recession hits, it seems like Dave and Buster's is going to be among the first businesses to be hit.
Yeah, I think that's right. They're kind of targeting their cash on cash returns of about 35%. So when you see that their management is expecting that to be about 17% lower than what they're getting, you're definitely getting the consumers that have discretionary income right now. We might see that contract a little bit in the next couple of years if we have a recession.
Yeah, it's almost like a casino in that regard. It's not where you're going to go in times of tough. That's what I wonder how much the maintenance is going to be in the locations and to keep the games up to date and any thoughts on that? To be determined, I mean, I think that a lot of it is the upfront cost that they're putting in there, and they're still getting 52% on.
So, very high margin. This week, Facebook unveiled Facebook Stories, a new feature that bears a very striking resemblance to Snapchat. Jeff, if you're a snap, and more specifically, if you're a shareholder of a snap, how worried are you about this? Well, you should be a bit worried, but Facebook for the past five years at least has released feature after feature, service after service that mimicked or copied some of Snapchat's own features.
And some most have actually failed, but some have gone on to become part of Facebook experience, Instagram being the biggest example of lately taking on more and more Snapchat features, and those are going well so far with their stories. So now Facebook is doing the same thing with mainly with photographs and your ability to tell a story individually with someone, one of your friends directly or with your audience. Directly my wife and I tried this out right before taping. It was just like a Snapchat sent a photo to her.
She sends one back. Or like, this is stupid. But kids will like it. What Facebook is trying to do is attract younger people, the 17 to 24 audience that Snapchat is so strong.
And that said, these services are tougher to monetize. So it's kind of funny that right now Facebook is trying to grab those younger people. Well, Snapchat is trying to have more kind of Facebook type revenue from their advertising. So they're both kind of melding into each other.
So if you're Facebook, can't you look at this new feature as essentially a loss leader? If Snapchat is under more pressure, if Snapchat is under more pressure to monetize Snapchat, maybe that means ads start popping up in these stories. And it becomes a less compelling experience for younger people. And if you're Facebook, you're able to say, hey, ours is completely not free.
Yeah, and they don't plan to monetize it anytime soon. And I think even the longer term thought maybe, well, we need younger people to be more involved than over time, they'll evolve to the Facebook platform itself. So yeah, Chris, I think that's true. And I think the main thing Snap needs to be worried about is just growing its audience period.
I mean, this is far more important for Snap to be able to evolve beyond the teenage messaging. I mean, that ultimately is what it is at the end of the day. And I know they like to consider themselves a camera company. I mean, I don't know.
That's the wise and the course of action either. Facebook can place all these bets all day long every day. I mean, they've got so many platforms and so many ways to continue to add little bells and whistles to their platforms. I mean, it's nothing but them to try anything.
I mean, Snapchat is really faced with a tremendous uphill battle here of trying to figure out how to attract people beyond sort of that teeny, younger 20s demographic because, yeah, sure, they're engaged. But I mean, they aren't really big money spenders, right? I mean, how are you going to really monetize that audience in a meaningful way? I don't think you can.
And I mean, yeah, and Snap prides itself on making it's happening. I'm kind of complex and Facebook has gone and done the same thing, but made it very simple. So I will say that it did a good job. It's really easy.
It was like a snap to use in your future. It's as it's charms. We got Simon Fisher over here. I'm loving that, Jeff.
Up next a couple of headlines and a few stocks on our radar. This is Motley Cool Mine. As always, people on the program may have interested in the stocks they talk about in the Motley Cool Mine, a formal recommendations for or against. So don't buy your cell stocks based solely on what you hear.
Welcome back to Motley Cool Mine. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Mozart, Simon Erickson and Jeff Fisher. Shares of Lulu Lemon, ASELETAka fell 23% on Thursday after a bad fourth quarter report and guidance Simon that was dramatically lower than what Wall Street analysts were expecting. Chris, this is what happens when Roto Picchu leaves a company, right?
The executives of the company were saying that they're predicting the first same store sales decline in the past 28 quarters. So obviously that's what the street was reacting forward. When Ford looked and guidance is that bad. A lot of this was because they really botched a lot of their online sales channel, visual merchandising they were trying for the new depth of color in spring.
They didn't work out, they're course directing, they said, don't worry about it. We got it in control. I'll get them a quarter to figure that out. But it is something that we did see improved.
I think bigger picture for Lulu Lemon is this is a company that's really carved out a very profitable niche in yoga. And they don't have very well and they've got a great margins off of that. And now the company needs to learn how to expand their product categories. And we've seen them grow very well with men's.
They've got the ABC line of pants and various other items, 20% growth in men's year over year. We see the Aviva line for teenagers. That was a 28% year over year. And now you've got international expansion too.
They're trying out some new stores in China. But I think that you have to see calculated growth from Lulu Lemon because it's not just a niche retailer of yoga pants anymore. It's got to become a larger entity. And that's what the street wants to see.
Our email address is radioetfull.com from Longtime listener Dr. Rick Zabrodsky in Calgary, Alberta. A few months ago, my son left Uber to work for Lulu Lemon's e-commerce division. He left his stock options to get rid of a toxic work culture.
He'll be loading up on Lulu Lemon's stock as soon as possible. P.S. he has yet to meet. Wrote a picture.
Well, hopefully she'll stop by the office. And she's Uber-like. Shares of Darden restaurants hitting a new high this week after third quarter profits came in higher than expected. Darden is the parent company of Olive Garden, Longhorn Stechhouse, the Capitol Grill.
And now Jason Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen. Never been there, but I sure do like the name. And that's the $800 million acquisition that Darden pulled off. Rolls right off the tongue.
I'm not really, I'm not sure what I'm more impressed from this recording. Olive Garden's success in the to-go segment of the business continues to just sound. I mean, growth of 17% of the quarter. Or the fact that it was Olive Garden's 10th consecutive quarter of St.
Store sales growth. I mean, clearly, that's a concept that's resonating with a lot of people. And I have a feeling our man behind the glass there probably went at least once this past quarter. Absolutely.
I think they did a good thing in spinning off a lot of those restaurants with the real estate where they owned, spinning that property off of the Ford Corners Property Trust. I think that allowed them to monetize that real estate while focusing more on just operational excellence. And I think that the Cheddar acquisition, it seems like a pretty good one. I mean, when you look at the unit economics, they're bringing in about $4.5 million annually per restaurant, average check of around $13.50.
So it's affordable. Bringing in about $617 million to the top line immediately with a restaurant base that should be able to grow. I mean, they have somewhere in the neighborhood of 123 restaurants today. So, I'm sorry, 165 actually.
Excuse me. So there are a lot of reasons why I think Darden could continue to perform well. They obviously have a big portfolio of different restaurants, which certainly plays into a strength here in this restaurant segment. So all in all, they continue to perform very well.
All right. We'll get to the stocks on our radar. And I'm behind the glass. Steve Brodell hit you with a question.
Also behind the glass this week, longtime listener Joe Dolan in the house. So thanks for talking about Joe. Simon Erickson, you're up first. What are you looking at this week?
Chris, I'm looking at iRobot, the Titter is IRBT. This is a company that makes a lot of the home cleaning products you've gotten used to the Roomba vacuum cleaner, the Brava Mop. And these have been devices that have just kind of buzzed around and, you know, cleaned the floors and done household chores before. But now they're getting integrated to the cloud and they're becoming smarter.
They're not going to be connected through Amazon Alexa. And you've got artificial intelligence that's actually making them able to clean rather than just run around on your floor. I think that's a lot more valuable in the smart home of the future. So I'm keeping an eye on these guys.
Steve, question about iRobot? How much time does a company like iRobot have to get this right? Because it seems like they've been at this for a very long time. Yeah, I think that the internet connectivity and the real push for the smart home right now, Steve, gives them a really window of opportunity.
They've got the spatial recognition figured out for years. It's just a matter of how do you actually get it to do what you want it to do, which is actually clean your house. I give them a year to really see how this goes in the smart home because I think now's the time to do it. Jason, what are you looking at?
My wife gave me a room before my birthday leisure. I think we get the things we can run hard with. I'm going to have the dogs pretty well actually. I've got Teladoc on my radar.
Ticker is TDOC. They provide telehealth services via mobile devices, internet, video phone, basically connecting patients to doctors and preventing you from having to actually go to that doctor's office, which we know is typically a very inefficient process. And following this company since it went public a little bit more than a year ago, stock is having a great year thus far, better than 50%. And that's because they continue to grow their top line at 65% plus rates.
They're adding more visits, adding more members. This is an interesting business that is disrupting sort of the traditional doctor visit sort of model that we've grown up with. I think it's one that's got some likes here. I'm going to keep following it.
Steve, are insurers bullish on this company? Yeah, it's interesting. They get more partnerships with not only companies, but health plans and whatnot. And making sure is they're finding ways to add this sort of feature as supplemental to plans that they're selling out.
So yeah, I do think they find this type of offering very attractive. Jeff Fisher, what are you looking at? So Momo, the ticker is M-O-M-O, it's fun to say. And the business that they offer is also called Momo.
It's a social networking platform in China. They have 81 million monthly active users earnings per share have been soaring and are expected to grow about 60% this year. This company's revenue, Steve, has gone from 3 million in 2013 to 550 million the past year's astronomical trades at 25 times forward earnings. Again, it's a Chinese company, so you know, you need to watch that.
But Momo. Steve, do you trust numbers coming out of China? I do. I'm starting to more and more when you got by-do.
You got transparency is growing. Yes. All right. Thanks for being here, guys.
Up next, the conversation with documentary filmmaker Ted Braun. This is Momo. All right, before we get to my conversation with Ted Braun. I'm going to say we're about rocket mortgage by quick and loans.
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So skip the bank, skip the waiting, and go completely online at quickandloans.com. I'm interested in making a film about the battle between a hedge fund manager and a company like Herbalife. I came back from Sudan curious about the place of money in American life. I was in a country where an entirely different set of values were operating.
People were motivated by a deep desire for functioning justice, if they made it by a desire for the international community. And all of that made me quite fully understand how central money was to ourselves as Americans, in many cases. And that had just been kind of rattling around inside of me for a couple of years and glenn zipper the truth of this with a line on financing a film set in the world of American corporate conflict. I want to get to Ackman in a second, but you've got people in this film who are involved in Herbalife.
And Herbalife is, if you asked someone at Herbalife who told me about the business, they would talk about nutrition and how this is a company all about helping people lead healthier lives. Watching your film, it is clear that largely if not entirely, it is a company that is a multi-level marketing company. It is all about recruiting other people to sell Herbalife products and the profits flow up that way. And what blew me away was just the very, very personal stories that you tell here with people in big cities like Chicago, but also smaller towns in Oklahoma who get involved with Herbalife and end up, in some cases, losing their life savings.
Those are counterbalance, the thing that Herbalife is about. You mentioned the American Dream, and that's one of the things I was thinking about during a scene in your film, and yours is a documentary film. And yet I was reminded of a scene in the movie The Big Short, where in the Big Short, the American Dream is represented by American housing. Everyone wants to own a home, and you have people in The Big Short who are selling homes to people who really have no business owning a home.
They just don't have the financial means to do so. And in your case, in your film, it's Michael Johnson, the longtime CEO who stepped down as CEO last year, he's still chairman of the board. But video of him talking about how we're all about recruiting. This is an internal video where he's selling, we're all about recruiting.
You need to recruit people to sell our products no matter who they are. And I thought, well gosh, that's kind of like The Big Short, only it's recruit people to sell, even if they have no business being in the business of selling anything. Recruiting that be a central to a definition of a pyramid team, and whether urban life's profits are drawn principally from recruiting to members or from retail sales outside of the network of distributors. The dramatic question, Ackman pressed throughout his long campaigning against urban life, and one that ultimately the Federal Trade Commission in their settlement with urban life last summer came down with a very clear verdict.
And the verdict was quite damning. They found their life in violation of federal law. They charged urban life with four counts of false deceptive and unfair. And the centerpiece of the complaint was this issue of recruiting versus retail.
And they found that the company was a company that relied upon and in that way vindicated what Mr. Ackman. Bill Ackman, for those unfamiliar, is a billionaire hedge fund manager. And he gets involved because he sees a company stock that he thinks is ripe for shorting and gets involved.
First in kind of a small way with a small short and then increases his position. And it's interesting to watch this play out in your film because Ackman is so convinced he is right, which, and we talked about this on the show from time to time, it's one thing to buy, share something. It's one thing to buy, shares of a company, and bet on it to go higher. You almost need a stronger conviction and a stronger stomach to short a stock and bet on it to go down because you can be right in the long run, but in the short run you can get crushed.
And in the case of Bill Ackman, right out of the gate, he's looking very much correct both in terms of his conviction and in terms of what's happening with the money, with the hundreds of millions of dollars that he has put at stake on this short. And then it's not too long before he starts to lose in a very big way. When you were going through this process of making the film a following Bill Ackman, what did you observe about his temperament throughout the process as this begins to go very badly for him and for his investors? And unwavering in his convictions.
In the most challenging hours of this conflict, you know, stay the course. And that conviction and steadiness, I think, was one of the more fascinating parts of him as a character. And it's something that I think the film probes and explores. Where does this conviction come from?
To some extent, you know, it comes from an enormous amount of confidence in his analysis. Though the phrase never made it into the finished film, at one point in an interview with me, he felt that, you know, in most cases investments involve a certain degree of uncertainty. But in this case, he felt that his analysis was solid to a degree of absolute certainty, which also to him, a moral dimension of this investment, not just for his investors, but for the country as a whole. Elevated the conflict and incited the ire of a number of people who were on the other side of the trade, from him in particular, from Michael Johnson's CEO of Herlife, who, to one point very, very, very much.
And it actually led him to say that even if he were to get out of the investment, he would continue to Herlife. That makes for a very unusual and interesting character in a film and a very unusual and interesting Wall Street figure. You still see that every day. Yeah, I mean, Bill Ackman, beyond the fact that he's a billionaire, has a reputation for being arrogant.
So the fact that you've made a reportedly arrogant billionaire come off as a sympathetic character that the audience is largely rooting for is a pretty amazing accomplishment. Speaking of billionaires, this is a story that gets more interesting when a billionaire jumps in on the other side of the equation. And that's Carl Icahn, who, and this is part of why the investment, the short of Herbalife stock, begins to go badly for Bill Ackman, is because Carl Icahn comes in and buys about 10, 12% of the company. And correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the main reason Carl Icahn buys the stock is not because he believes this is an amazing business that's changing the world for good.
I think he just hates Bill Ackman's guts. And that's certainly the view of William Cohen, the writer who has observed both men at close range and written about both of them at length. He wrote about their battle for that year and of the famous 13. And I think there's a lot of evidence to support that.
Mr. Icahn claims that this is nothing more than a good investment for him, that he believes in the company, and thinks he's made simply a smart and shrewd decision about where to invest his resources. But the timing of his stock purchase and the fact that it occurred very shortly after he had a famous battle with Ackman on the end of the battle that I'm sure many of your listeners are familiar with. One of the most colorful episodes in business television ended in name calling and a lot of really, a lot of vengeance and feud on a personal level.
Coming up, we'll talk about just how badly Herbalife does not want you to see this film. You're listening to Motley Fullman. Welcome back, Motley Fullman, Chris Hill, talking with Ted Braun, director of the New Documentary, betting on zero. One of the things that you show very vividly in your documentary is something that you've alluded to, and that is Michael Johnson's CEO of Herbalife and the reaction to Bill Ackman's short.
It would be one thing if Ackman was not so public about it, but he's very public that this is not just what he believes to be a good business decision. He makes it very personal. And Herbalife doesn't just sit on their hands feeling insulted. They go after Bill Ackman.
They do everything they can to boost their profile, bringing in high-profile athletes to promote the Herbalife brand. They don't sit still when they feel like they're being attacked. All of that, Ted, is prelude to this question. Now that your film is out, what is Herbalife's reaction to your documentary?
Well, it's been disturbing. I had no agenda when I set out to make this film. I thought the antagonist in this battle had competing and very interesting claims. I was interested in dramatizing this problem.
You said you found it surprising to feel sympathetic for Bill Ackman. I think one of the goals of good documentary filmmaking, as with any kind of good storytelling, is to get the audiences in the shoes of people they would not otherwise know or understand. I very much had the goal of getting the audience into the shoes of both Mr Ackman and Herbalife and Herbalife and his executives. Ultimately, despite two plus years of conversations with her life, the time that we locked the picture of the film, they declined to participate.
We engage in conversations like a lot of off-the-record conversations tell me to understand. It's ultimately a declined to participate. It says you have to participate. But within weeks or two of announcing that the film was premiering at Tribeca Film Festival in April, one of their lobbyists in Washington DC, Hillary Rosen, tweeted at Jane Rosen's Fall Robert De Niro's partner, that the Tribeca Film Festival's reputation was a stake because they were screening the film that the film had been bought and paid for by Bill Ackman.
This was not true. And Ms Rosen tweeted this without disclosing the fact that she was paid. This sort of intimidation went on after the film premiered. And then the sort of crazy culmination in October when we were screening the Double Exposure Film Festival in Washington, the Festival devoted to.
And see exactly half the house of the National Port Kingdom filmmaking and so there were a lot of investigators journalists, at the virtually optimal of the press there and being a story in Politico. But these are troubling actions on the part of the company that had an opportunity to participate. Most of them were taken without ever having seen the film. So where do you think this is going in terms of Herbalife's business and therefore in terms of Herbalife's stock price?
One of the things that you establish very early in the film is that Bill Ackman, when it comes to shorting a stock, is nothing if not patient. In one example, he waited seven years for a short of a stock to pay off. And he's a lot younger than Carl Icahn. So I'm just curious if you have any gut feeling of where this is going over the next couple of years.
I have been endlessly, at least substantial, that the FTC had settled a long-term investigation to come and as part of that settlement, that their revenue not from reforest and Herbalife will be a very, very different company able to bring a lot of that is the question of. betting on zero is in theaters around the country now and is available on iTunes. In April, for more information you can go to bettingonzeromovie.com. Ted Braun, thank you so much for being here.
Chris Beck, great pleasure. Thanks for pledging to it in the whole personal. That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motley Fool Money. Our engineer is Steve Broido.
Our producer is Mac Greer. I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. We'll see you next week.