Beyond the script: Who shapes China-Central Asia ties?

This week, we focus on one major theme: China’s evolving relationship with Central Asia. The episode centres on the China–Central Asia summit held last week in Astana and features an extended interview with Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a leading expert on China’s role in the region.We unpack what’s new and what’s not in Beijing’s outreach, from 35 percent trade growth since the last summit to Xi Jinping’s pledges of 3,000 training spots and 1.5 billion yuan in “livelihood projects.” The episode explores the deeper story behind the formal rhetoric; particularly the establishment of a China–Central Asia secretariat and the signing of a Treaty of Eternal Good-Neighbourliness.The conversation takes a critical look at how much Central Asia is shaping this agenda versus simply reacting to it. While elites increasingly articulate their own wish lists (such as Tajikistan’s call for green AI infrastructure), Umarov argues that meaningful local agency is more visible behind the scenes, including through protest dynamics and elite negotiation.We also discuss China’s soft power strategy, shifts in public attitudes, and the dangers of dependency, especially in the digital realm. As Chinese infrastructure projects gain speed across the region, questions about transparency, workforce inclusion, and long-term sovereignty loom large.In sum, this episode asks: Is Central Asia becoming a corridor, or a partner? And can it remain a free agent in a world of increasingly strategic patrons?Useful links:CAPS Unlock & Internet Society, Kazakhstan’s Internet Landscape: Understanding Threats and Opportunitieshttps://capsunlock.org/publications/kazakhstan-internet-landscape-understanding-threats-and-opportunities/Berikbol Dukeyev, How Local Realities Compelled China to Adapt Its Soft-Power Strategy in Kazakhstanhttps://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/09/kazakhstan-china-soft-power-adaptation?lang=enOxus Society Protest Trackerhttps://oxussociety.org/viz/protest-tracker/Odil Gafarov, Boots on the Ground: What Chinese Private Security Contractors Do in Central Asiahttps://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2024/07/china-private-security-central-asia?lang=enMinning Town (Chinese rural development drama referenced by Xi Jinping)World Bank, Country Economic Memorandum 2025: Kyrgyz Republichttps://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kyrgyzrepublic/publication/cem-2025 Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe