EPISODE · Apr 4, 2024 · 1H 39M
Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold
from Forward Guidance · host Blockworks
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024. __ Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker (03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s (13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market (20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started? (23:55) VanEck Ad (24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business (29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market (36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh (40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales (44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds (50:18) Tesla (53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.) (54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers (01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis (01:12:50) Macro (01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis (01:22:12) Options __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
What this episode covers
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024. __ Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker (03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s (13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market (20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started? (23:55) VanEck Ad (24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business (29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market (36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh (40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales (44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds (50:18) Tesla (53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.) (54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers (01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis (01:12:50) Macro (01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis (01:22:12) Options __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold
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