Bond Panic. Software Pileup. Borrowed AI Earnings. Are Investors Pricing the Wrong Risk?

In this Weekly Wrap, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler break down why rising long-term bond yields may be justified by stronger nominal growth, large fiscal deficits and AI-driven capital spending, and why the bigger market risk may be an AI earnings bubble rather than a valuation bubble. Featuring Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel, the episode also explores private equity’s huge software bet, the traits of elite stock pickers, and how the worldview of AI leaders could be driving unusually aggressive capital spending and risk-taking.Topics covered:Why long-term bond yields may be more rational than alarming given stronger nominal GDP, inflation, deficits and heavy Treasury and corporate issuanceHow global fiscal expansion and the AI infrastructure build-out are adding to bond supply and upward pressure on ratesWhy suppressing market interest rates can distort an important economic signal and create unintended consequencesHow private equity became a lagged momentum investor and built massive exposure to software and healthcare technologyWhy recurring revenue does not make a business bulletproof, and how AI could challenge software economics that once looked untouchableIan Cassel’s benchmarks for good, great and GOAT stock pickers, from 10-year outperformance to 20% annualized returnsThe five or six core investing skills elite stock pickers need, and why world-class investors become exceptional at one or twoHow AI CapEx can boost current supplier earnings while the buyer’s expense is spread over years through depreciationWhy an AI earnings bubble could exist even if headline valuation multiples do not look extremeHow futurism, expected-value thinking and confidence in AGI may be encouraging AI leaders to take enormous capital spending risksTimestamps:00:00 Intro: Kevin Muir, Dan Rasmussen and Ian Cassel05:09 Why suppressing bond yields could create new risks09:54 Private equity as a lagged momentum investor14:15 Why investment committees chase three- and five-year returns19:00 The skills that separate good investors from great ones23:11 Why elite stock picking takes a decade or more to judge27:18 How AI CapEx is changing cash flow, buybacks and earnings31:47 Price bubbles vs earnings bubbles36:00 Why AI leaders may be taking massive CapEx risk40:49 AI adoption bottlenecks and the need for skepticismLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.