Bondcast Speakers' Corner: AI, productivity and market risk

In this edition of Bondcast: Speakers’ Corner, Imogen Bachra is joined by NatWest Director of Innovation, David Greenwald, to explore one of the defining market themes of 2026: artificial intelligence. The discussion examines whether markets are pricing in AI-driven productivity too quickly, how AI could reshape inflation and central bank thinking, and why governments are increasingly viewing AI as a strategic geopolitical asset.Key takeaways* Markets remain optimistic about AI, but significant uncertainty surrounds the timing and scale of productivity gains.* Infrastructure bottlenecks could keep AI investment inflationary before productivity becomes disinflationary.* The largest productivity gains are already emerging in software development and routine knowledge work.* Governments are treating AI as a strategic national capability rather than simply a commercial technology.* Geopolitics is becoming an increasingly important driver of AI adoption, investment and market risk.This episode was recorded on 25 June 2026.The views expressed in this episode are not necessarily those of NatWest Group.For any terms used please refer to this glossary: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/insights/markets/glossary.htmlPlease view our full disclaimer here: https://www.natwest.com/corporates/disclaimer.html