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What a big minority government will be falling out across the country. From a minority government, we talked earlier with Professor Green Brat from Mount Oregon University in Alberta about what would happen in the province if there were a liberal NDP Green Coalition government with liberals winning less seats in the Conservatives. And Professor Brat had concerns about what might happen. He also talked about equalization of equalization formula.
And he mentioned my next guest, Daniel Smith from QR77, our chorus radio station in Calgary. And Daniel is part of the Global News Talk Show host panel on Global News Election coverage on Monday night. Daniel, thanks for taking the time. Professor Brat said he made a point of pointing out that you said yesterday on air.
I believe that equalization referendum is time for it now in Alberta. Well, certainly. I mean, if it is the case, I mean, it's kind of just to be here, Andrew Shearer, isn't it? Talk confidently about how he's going to form government.
I think it's quite possible that he'll get the most seats, but I'm not at all confident that he'll be able to form government. It doesn't look like the Liberals will give up power very easily, even if they get fewer seats in Andrew Shearer, which is their right under our parliamentary system. At which point, I think Albertans have got to decide whether or not they're just going to continue to take this treatment sitting down because it feels really like the entire country's been campaigning against Alberta. Or if they do something about it, I think the best way to send a message to the rest of the country is to do what Jason and Candy Promise all along.
He wanted to have a referendum to take equalization out of the Constitution in 2021 to coincide with their municipal elections. I think you should do it now. Do you think the rest of the country understands the sentiment, the emotion, and what's happened in Alberta? No, I don't think they do at all.
And part of it is that I don't think anybody really is that much campaigning in Alberta. I'm sort of surprised that you've got the Prime Minister there. I think you've been there at 11 o'clock tonight for a rally. I think it's only a second time in the province, same with Andrew Shearer.
And part of that is just the numbers. It looks like it might be an entire sweep of Alberta. All 34 seats going conservative, maybe one at Edmonton, going NDP as it did last time around. And so in some ways it's been taken for granted.
If you're taken for granted, don't take your issue seriously. So there's been this huge debate going on about do we allow pipelines? Do we shut down the oil sands now? Or do we shut them down 20 years from now?
Do we prevent Alberta from being able to build a pipeline to get back? So there've been all these ways which Alberta has been talked about. And the climate change discussion has, of course, been front and center with the visit of Credit Tumberg, a couple of times during the campaign. But I think it's really more the issues of Alberta are really more being discussed as an auxiliary issue as opposed to a bread and butter issue.
So if you shut down the oil sands by 2030, it would be devastating. If you prevent Alberta from being able to build pipelines, it would be devastating. And I don't think Alberta stands for it. So the word is brought up time and again.
And that is an Alberta separatist movement. How realistic is that? Depending on what happens on Monday? Well, a scene told in the last year to suggest that it's been as high as 25% support, maybe even higher.
I think Jason Kenny has managed to quell that because he'll have a lot of confidence that his excellent political skills, his friendships with other premiers would be allowed to move forward on some of our issues. But I have to tell you, I just don't know if you've got a jug me saying holding the balance of power to prop up the liberal. He is in the writing that is the most opposed to the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion. I can't quite see how he would continue to prop up the liberal unless they agreed to cancel that expansion.
And that would be devastating. So I think if that occurred, that would most definitely find a plain participant. I don't think there's any question about it. So you have a lot of experience in the world of politics.
You'll be on the panel on Monday Night on Global News. What are you going to be looking for as the vote start to come in East West? Well, I'll be looking at Atlantic Canada. See just how many seats the liberal lose because they're going to start losing there.
They're going to lose through Quebec because of the the Block Quebecois, which is surprising to me that they've managed to get new life. They're going to lose in Ontario too because they're not pulling anywhere near as high as they were in the last election. And they'll lose throughout the West. And in British Columbia, they're also pulling the flow, which is sort of interesting because they go into this election with 177 seats.
And I can't see any way that they'd be able to maintain a majority. And then I'll be looking to see Andrew Shear sort of the opposite. He needs to gain 75 seats to win a majority. And so we'll begin to see some early signs in Atlantic Canada, whether or not they're having a breakthrough, whether they manage to maintain or keep in Quebec or whether it really just becomes a contest between the liberals in the block there.
And then Ontario, you know better than anyone probably. That's a 9.05 all-important area of the suburban commuter, whether or not they decide that they're going to stick with the liberals or go conservative. That'll really determine how they'll come the rest of the night. I'll be speaking with only Brunswick Pringer, Blaine Higgs in the next hour on this program.
I'm asking about Atlantic Canada. But I live in 9.05 and I'll tell you Daniel, there's a tremendous interest. I sense a greater interest in this election than the last one. I think it'll last few.
And maybe that's just because it's happening around me now. But I don't necessarily. I mean, I just feel there's a great deal of interest in this one. I think there is too.
And in some ways, because we've had a few surprises. I mean, doesn't do those losses, rockstar status? And it's been gained by Jugby saying, who would have thought that he'd be the trendy hot new leader to follow? And that has really changed the dynamic.
It may not play out in Eastern Canada quite as much as it does in British Columbia. But that's one of the factors. Of course, he's also, he used to hold the writing in Brampton, didn't he? And so that's part of the reason, maybe as well.
There's a little bit more interest in the 9.05 and how he's doing. And then of course, the fact that Andrew Shearer, I think had pretty low expectations on him going in. And he's performed pretty well and started the campaign at 32%. He's ending the campaign, pulling it at 32%.
And if you look at both of the polls, he's not a pretty steady campaign. I'm not quite sure why he hasn't broken through. But maybe that's something that we'll see on Monday night. Maybe he is telling the truth from his own internal polling that people are going to be surprised that he's stronger than people think he is.
It looks confident, that's for sure. Daniel, thank you so much. We'll look for you on the rest of the Global News panelists, radio panelists on the broadcast on Monday night. Yeah, thank you again.
Take care. Daniel Smith from QR77, our chorus radio station, in Vancouver, in Calgary. And Daniel, of course, has a lot of experience in the world of politics and talk regularly. This is, this is, this is election.
It feels like it's going to throw us some really significant curves and surprises. If you want to hear more, subscribe to The Roy Green Show on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or wherever, you find your favorites. And if you like what you hear, leave us a review and tell a friend. I'm Roy Green.
Have a great weekend.