Bonus Episode: Pat Herrity Drops Out

00:00.83Sam ShiraziHi everyone, I'm Sam Shirazi and this is Federal Fallout the 2025 Virginia Elections. This is a special bonus episode to go over some breaking news that happened on Monday in the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor. So the front runner, Fairfax Supervisor Pat Herrity has announced that he is withdrawing from the Republican Lieutenant Governor's race.00:23.72Sam ShiraziAnd that means by default, the other candidate on the primary ballot, John Reid, will be the Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor. So to set things up, Pat Harrity, he's a supervisor in Fairfax County.00:35.17Sam ShiraziHis dad also had that role. So both of them were well known in Fairfax County. And the sense was that he was more of the front runner because he had raised more money. He was more of the establishment figure and he had more backing from the party.00:49.54Sam ShiraziAnd so there was a sense that in all likelihood, he was more likely than not going to be the Republican nominee. Obviously, the fact that he withdrew is a big deal. The reason he withdrew was that he recently had heart surgery and he had been attempting to soldier on in the primary, but obviously that was not possible given his health issues.01:10.56Sam ShiraziAnd it goes without saying that I send Pat Herrity my best wishes. I hope he makes a speedy recovery. Hopefully this is not something that will affect him long term and he can make a full recovery.01:21.69Sam ShiraziBut obviously it was something that meant that he was not going to be able to continue on the campaign trail.01:28.76Sam ShiraziSo this also means that the Republican ticket for this November is set in Virginia. So for governor, we are going to have as the Republican nominee, Lieutenant Governor Winston Sears.01:40.22Sam ShiraziFor attorney general, we are going to have the incumbent Jason Miyares running for reelection. And then obviously for Lieutenant Governor, we will have John Reid as the Republican nominee. And I looked up Virginia election law, so you didn't have to. And it appears that because,01:57.46Sam ShiraziPat Herrity withdrew before the start of early voting that the Virginia can just go ahead and cancel the Republican primary for LG because if Pat Herrity withdraws, there's only one other candidate. By default, John Reid is going to be the Republican nominee.02:14.59Sam ShiraziAnd so there's no need to have a statewide primary for Lieutenant Governor on the Republican side. Obviously, there's still going to be some primaries for Republicans in the House of Delegates in some seats, and there's going to be some local seats where there might be primaries for the Republicans.02:32.05Sam ShiraziBut that's obviously a lot fewer than having a statewide primary where every voter in Virginia, in theory, could choose to vote in the Republican primary. The Democrats are still going to have their statewide primary, both for LG and AG. So there will be a primary on June 17th.02:48.68Sam ShiraziAgain, Virginia voters have the option of voting in either the Republican or the Democratic primary. There's going to be a lot fewer people on the Republican side who are going to have a primary in a few districts, whereas the Democrats, the entire state, there's going to be a primary on the Democratic side. So one interesting thing that this change might do right off the bat is we'll see if some more independents and other people who who typically lean to the Republicans, because there's not going to be a primary on the Republican side statewide, do they choose to go into the Democratic primary and vote in June 17th? Will that make a difference? Who are they going to vote for?03:32.83Sam ShiraziI mean, realistically, my sense is that and most of the time people don't cross over and vote in the other party's primary. It's just, I mean, you hear about it, but the practical thing is it's just not something that typically makes a huge difference in these races. So I don't anticipate that being a huge deal.03:50.99Sam ShiraziBut at the same time, the Republicans have their nominees set. And I wanted to talk a little bit about what this might mean for November. So as I mentioned, Pat Herrity, he is known to be more of the establishment figure. There was a hope by some Republicans that he might be able to win over some crossover voters in Fairfax County.04:14.18Sam ShiraziAnd there there was even a sense that, well, maybe the top of the ticket's looking pretty tough for Republicans, but Pat Herrity might win some of these more traditional Republicans that have moved away from the GOP in recent years towards the Democrats. He might be able to get people to split their tickets. So even if the Republicans lose at the top of the ticket, there was a chance that maybe Pat Herrity might win for lieutenant governor.04:37.96Sam Shirazithink obviously now that he's withdrawn, that becomes less of a possibility. I think on the flip side, John Reid, he is more of a political outsider. He's had a long career in politics, but he hasn't necessarily had elected office. And in recent years, he's been more known for being a radio host.04:58.72Sam ShiraziI will say that compared to Pat Herrity, John Reid is probably closer to the MAGA side of the political aisle on the Republican side. So it's possible that him being the nominee will fire up more of the base, which obviously at the top of the ticket with Winsome Sears, there isn't necessarily as much of a excitement for her among the more hardcore MAGA base because she has been a little bit arm's length in the past to President Trump.05:28.01Sam ShiraziHowever, now it doesn't appear that Lieutenant Governor Sears is going to distance herself from Trump, but still there have been statements in the past that I think have upset some of the more hardcore MAGA base. And John Reid, maybe being on the ticket, might be able to excite some of those people to come out.05:44.07Sam ShiraziNow, realistically, I don't think this is something where people are that swayed by who the lieutenant governor nominee is. I think it's unlikely that... This is going to change that many votes in the grand scheme of things. But obviously it shakes things up because I think most people were assuming that Pat Herrity was going to be the Republican nominee.06:04.70Sam ShiraziAnd I think Democrats are excited at the possibility of John Reid being the Republican nominee because whenever someone's on radio, they've said a lot of things. And I think there's a lot of things that Democrats now are going to spend time going back, looking at his record, trying to bring up some of the things that he said in the past.06:23.78Sam ShiraziAnd then when he's on the ticket with Winsome Sears, the Democrats will try to tie that to Winsome Sears because they'll say, oh look at this thing that John Reid said that – Winston Sears is running with him and she hasn't distanced himself from him.06:35.33Sam ShiraziSo I think the Democrats are going to try that dynamic. And I will say in recent Virginia history, there was something that happened kind of like this in the Democrats were successful in 2013 with the Republican Lieutenant Governor candidate E.W. Jackson.06:53.12Sam ShiraziSo the Democrats were able to find a lot of the things E.W. Jackson had said. They put that out there. Compared to the rest of the ticket, E.W. Jackson did pretty poorly in 2013. He lost by almost 11%, even though the governor's race was relatively close.07:11.46Sam ShiraziAnd so I think you could see Democrats trying that strategy with John Reid. I think the only issue with that is realistically, there just isn't a lot of ticket splitting these days, even compared to 2013. So I do think that most people vote based on the top of the ticket.07:26.72Sam Shirazithink most people are going to be straight ticket voters on both sides. The only slight change might be that in in theory, Pat Harity might have gotten some people who voted for Spanberger at the top of the ticket to vote for him and in LF that's not going to happen now. In theory, maybe some people who vote Sears at the top of the ticket, they vote Republican. Maybe they don't vote for John Reid for LG.07:56.06Sam ShiraziAt least that's the Democrats hope. Again, I don't I think we're talking about handfuls of votes here and there. this isn't going to be any sort of Huge game changer for the LG race. But I do think it it kind of sets November up early for the Republicans. And so another benefit the Republicans are going to have is their ticket set. They can start coordinating more. They can start running more. The local cam committees know who their statewide nominees are going to be.08:24.34Sam ShiraziAnd so in that sense, that might help a little bit. The Democrats will have to wait until after June 17th to figure out who their LG and AG nominees are going to be.08:34.38Sam ShiraziYou know, the the one person I'm curious to see what happens in his future is Pat Herrrity. So if he's not running for lieutenant governor this year, he's up for reelection in 2027 for his Fairfax County supervisor seat. That's something that's been targeted by Democrats in the past.08:51.86Sam ShiraziI think, obviously, if there's going to be hits to the local economy due to the cuts in the federal government, I'll be curious to see what Herrity decides to do in his future. Does he decide to run for reelection in 2027?09:04.67Sam ShiraziOr does he decide maybe it's the time for him to retire due to his health issues? And again, I, you know, my heart goes out to Pat Herrity. I hope he takes time and makes a full recovery and is back out on the campaign trail one way or another in the future.09:18.76Sam ShiraziBut obviously, it'll be interesting to see what he decides to do in 2027. And if he decides to run for reelection. So there's been a lot of twists and turns already in the 2025 Virginia elections, and we're just getting started. I'm sure we'll see more things happening. I'd be shocked if this is the only surprise before November, and I think I will try my best to keep everyone updated. I'm not going to always be doing these special bonus episodes, but I do think that this was important enough, given that we won't have a statewide Republican primary, to just give an update.09:51.38Sam ShiraziLet people know that the Republicans ticket is set. Let people know that the Democrats still have a primary on June 17th. And I will say this. I do think the June 17 primary on the Democratic side is important for a couple reasons. One, I talked about it in the past, you know, it looks like Democrats are in.10:11.70Sam Shiraziin the driver's seat right now in Virginia, obviously that could change, but right now it looks like things are looking pretty good for the Democrats. And so whoever wins the Lieutenant Governor nominee on Democratic side on June 17th, there's a decent chance that they may end up being the next Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General in Virginia.10:29.30Sam ShiraziSo I think it's an important election in that sense. You know, I think sometimes with these primaries, there's not a lot of focus on them. People are focused on November. But obviously, you need to get through the primary first.10:41.74Sam ShiraziAnd i know some of us who are hardcore political people like to pay attention to the races, like to pay attention to what's going on, who the candidates are.10:51.34Sam ShiraziI'll probably do another episode at some point before the primary on the LG and AG race on the Democratic side. But I encourage everyone who feels inclined to vote in the Democratic primary in Virginia on June 17th to do their research, pick the candidates they think would be the best for the LG and AG spots, and to just take some time and think about June 17th as opposed to just focusing on November, because I think that's going to be an important11:19.76Sam Shirazidate for the Democrats. And, you know, overall, it's It's going to be an interesting year in Virginia, as I mentioned. I think this announcement on the Republican side settles things, but obviously we have to wait and see what happens on the Democratic side. So anyways, thanks everyone for listening. I will be out back on Saturday morning with the regular podcast episode, but just wanted to do this quick update on what happened today in Virginia. And so thanks everyone for listening, and I will catch you next time on Federal Fallout. This is a public episode. 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