Brace for sharp oil pressure

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US blockade on the Strait of Hormuz is starting, and a notable feature is that no other country has agreed to join it. Oil prices have risen, along with prices for many other products that rely on trade from the Persian Gulf. The last tankers to exit the Gulf are now arriving at Asian refineries, so the crunch is ahead of us, and getting closer. In the US, existing home sales dipped in March as buyers held back on the growing uncertainty. Analysts had expected a dip but this one was slightly larger than anticipated at -3.6%, taking the annual sales rate below 4 mln for the first time since June 2025. It is now also lower on a year-on-year basis. Of course, unsold inventory rose, although not alarmingly. But there was a larger retreat in building consents in Canada, falling -8.4% in February from January, down -11.5% from a year ago. Most of this was caused by a sharp -24% in non-residential building consents. In fact, housing consents rose +6.4% in the month, led by multi-unit construction. And there are by-elections in Canada, with most observers seeing Prime Minister Carney in a much stronger position after the votes are counted, no longer leading a minority government. In China, new yuan loans came in at ¥2.99 tln in March, below the ¥3.36 tln in the same month in 2025, and lower than the ¥3.4 tln forecasted to be their lowest March since 2021. And a key Chinese rare earth producer has raised its prices +45% for Q2-2026, to a level that is double what it was in Q2-2025. It was their largest quarterly hike since 2023. India's CPI inflation is rising, continuing a trend that started in November. It was at +3.4% in March, its highest since February 2025. Food prices were up +3.7%. Having noted that, we should also note that a slightly larger rise was anticipated. Aluminium prices continue to rise, and are now approaching the very unusual peak we saw in February 2022. And in Australia, we should note that a final court ruling is due any time now on the decades-long dispute over whether Gina Reinhart's claim to the Hancock mining fortune is valid. Could be some fun fireworks ahead. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.30%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$9 at US$4738/oz. Silver is little-changed at US$75.50/oz. American oil prices are up +US$2.50 at just on US$99/bbl, while the international Brent price is up +US$4, also now at US$99/bbl. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at this time at 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 50 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today up +20 bps from yesterday at just on 62.1. The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,231 and up +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just on +/- 2.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI