Economy Watch

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news financial markets are awaiting a Kevin Warsh speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, specifically about how he sees the Fed's role when the US Treasury seems to be undermining it. What he says about the fight against inflation, if anything, will be revealing. This has markets hesitating today in anticipation. Although, equity markets are bullish off the strong Nvidia results. US initial jobless claims fell marginally last week, and by marginally more than seasonal factors would have anticipated. There are now 1.78 mln people on these benefits, little different to a week ago but -7.5% less than a year ago. The US merchandise trade deficit has come in at -US$119 bln in July, up US$17.4 bln from unusually high -US$101 bln in June and the -US$101 bln in the same month in 2025. Apart from the rush to beat upcoming tariffs just after Trump took office in early 2025, this latest result is a record high. Americans seem happy to pay these tariffs to get the products they need. Exports fell from June while imports rose on the same basis. At the same time, the stockpiling trend seems to be gathering pace. US retail inventories rose in July as did wholesale inventories and both at an unexpectedly faster pace. Both are now at record high levels. Retail inventories are +3.9% higher than year ago levels now, with wholesale inventories up +5.6% on that basis. There could be an unwelcome reckoning if firms come to decide they are over-stocked. History shows their boardrooms are usually unhappy with excessive stocks. Meanwhile the Kansas City Fed factory survey shows this with a little-changed report that is holding its expansion. New order levels are similar to last month but are falling for export orders. Input costs are rising faster than selling prices. There was a US Treasury 7 year bond auction earlier today where the median yield came in at 4.46% (4.51% high). That is more costly that the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Canada, they reported a surprise current account surplus of +C$8.8 bln in Q2-2026 from a deficit of -C$8.3 bln in the prior quarter and an expected -C$2 bln deficit. It is their first quarterly surplus since the 2022 and the largest since 2005. Across the Pacific, China said it’s industrial profits rose more than +11% in July from the same month a year earlier. As good as that is, it was the softest pace this year. The Bank of Korea has raised its policy rate by +25 bps today to 3.00% in a second consecutive move up. They target a 2% inflation rate. Korea has inflation at 2.8% although it did dip in July. And the Philippine central bank raised its policy rate by +25 bps to 5%, all as expected. They target a 2-4% range and have current inflation at 6.2%. Taiwanese consumer sentiment was little-changed in August, staying better than it was earlier in the year. But from a long term perspective, it has been relatively low since the pandemic. Locally, after Wednesday's above expectation Australian CPI result - and plenty of evidence in that that non-fuel, less volatile items are rising in price faster now - we noticed an uptick in the pricing for a chance of a late-September rate hike by the RBA. True, it isn't an odds-on chance yet, but a notable one-day reaction. Currency markets rose on the prospects too. NAB is tipping a September rate hike now. And staying in Australia, household spending leapt +7.0% in July from a year ago, the fastest growth in the past ten years (apart from during the pandemic recovery). The +1.1% rise in July from June builds on the June +1.0% monthly rise, and the +1.2% May rise. This is impressive momentum. Financial markets had expected only a +0.4% monthly rise and a +4.4% year-on-year rise. It was a broad-based expansion in every sector other than for "furnishings & household equipment". Likely no one saw a result this positive coming. It will bolster bets the RBA will push through a rate rise sooner. Global container freight rates have stayed high, dipping just -1% over the past week. That puts them +111% higher than a year ago. Bulk cargo rates are up +10% for the week and nearing their yearly high again. From a year ago these rates are up +50%. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, unchanged from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.19%, and also unchanged.  The price of gold is now at US$4604/oz, and virtually unchanged from yesterday at this time. Silver has risen +US$1 to just over US$69/oz. Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up the same at just over US$90/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 59.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 82.7 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9, and little-changed from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,434 and up +2.5% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more data that suggests the US economy is not regaining any momentum, and may be about to be tested by record high diesel prices. US mortgage application levels dipped again last week from the prior week, mainly due to much lower refinancing levels as the high (6.78%) mortgage interest rates stay firm at these levels and a one year high. Meanwhile US PCE inflation stayed up in July at 3.7% when it was expected to show a small dip. The month-on-month rise was much more than expected. Personal spending rose +5.8% while personal disposable incomes were up +4.2%.from a year ago. So the squeeze continues, and although masked by inflation, many households will be feeling it. And US diesel prices are now at record highs. US GDP Q2-2026 second estimate came in at a modest +1.5%, and unchanged from its first estimate. Marginally stronger consumer spending was offset by weaker investment and more imports. The US July durable goods order report came in positively, up +12.9% from the same month a year ago. But without aircraft or defense, it was up +8.7%. Capital goods orders on the same basis were up +13.5%, probably reflecting data center activity. US crude oil stocks were little-changed last week, a bit less than the modest rise expected. Diesel stocks have hit record lows. Meanwhile, Meta has agreed to an US$18 bln penalty to be paid over the next decade to resolve claims it designed its social media platforms to addict children. It will change the way it interacts with children. Four of the states who brought the court claim - California, Colorado, Kentucky and New Jersey - were expected to seek substantial civil penalties as wells. In China, they have China has opened applications for an ¥800 bln policy-based financing tool for local government projects to shore up its slowing economic growth. But there are questions about how much impact this will have in 2026. Singaporean industrial production extended its very positive run in July, up +5.8% from the same month a year ago and gains similar to most month in 2026. In Australia, inflation fell in July as expected but not by as much as expected. Their June 3.8% rate fell to 3.5% in July but still well above the expected 3.2% rate assumed by financial markets. That gave the AUD a bounce, likely on the basis that the RBA's tolerance for still-high inflation may be about to get tested. The next RBA rate review is on September 29 however, and the August CPI data won't actually be known by then (September 30) - by the markets, at least. The RBA's inflation target is "between 2 and 3 percent", but it has been over 3% consistently every month for more than a year now. Global wheat prices are up sharply again today, and to new post-pandemic highs, as Black Sea shipments from both Russia and Ukraine have essentially stopped and prospects for resumption look grim. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +3 bps from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.19%, up +1 bp.  The price of gold is now at US$4603/oz, down -US$45 from yesterday at this time. Silver has fallen -US$1 to just over US$68/oz. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$88.50/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at just over 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -50 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -20 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.9, down -30 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$78,459 and down -0.5% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price has eased overnight on signs of new negotiations between the US and Iran, and relief that the US sanctions weren't as advertised. They exempted Chinese banks, for example. And China said it will support Iran. But first overnight, the Pulse dairy auction delivered higher prices from last week's full auction event - in USD terms at least. For example WMP was up almost +1%. But the rising NZD turned that into a -0.7% softening. In the US, ADP weekly private jobs update remains very low with less than +12,000 new jobs added over the past four weeks. Sales of new homes in the US were unusually low as well with the July level the lowest for that month since 2017 (apart from the pandemic 2022 drop). That puts them -6.5% lower than year-ago levels. The Richmond Fed's factory survey came in with a positive overall outcome in August, but lower than for July and the lowest since April. Re-shoring isn't a thing in the Mid-Atlantic states. The growth rate of prices paid and prices received rose in the month. Meanwhile their services survey in the region revealed slowing activity, with only slight increases in prices and costs. And that is consistent with the pullback in consumer sentiment as measured by the Conference Board in the US. It is measure that has been falling away since early 2025. There was a less well supported US Treasury 2 year bond sale overnight, but the yield dipped to 4.16% (4.20% high) from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.27%. In Canada, they reported lower wholesale sales in July, ending a run of expansions. The decline mainly reflects lower sales of agricultural supplies and minerals and ores. Otherwise little change. In the escalating trade war the US is waging on Canada, Canada has responded with 50% duties on American dairy products, steel, farm equipment, and appliances. And copper has risen to a new record high on the uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies. It isn't the only metal trading in the stratosphere of uncertainty. Tin is another example. Taiwan's July update of industrial production extended its outsized growth reporting (+26.9% from a year ago). And that was matched with high growth of retail sales there (+7.7%) Later today we will be watching the July CPI update from Australia where a fall in the rate from June's 3.8% to 3.2% is anticipated. Meanwhile, they are dealing with some major events. Firstly in NSW, a major home builder has collapsed. The Bathla Group has failed owing AU$3.6 bln in debt supposedly due to soaring construction costs which they can't recover just as a sharp decline in property sales hit them. Construction activity has frozen across approximately 15,000 homes, townhouses, and apartment developments currently underway. The vast majority of the AU$3.6 bln of debt is owed to private credit funds and non-bank lenders. There are sure to be cascading impacts. And bird flu is spreading faster now in Australia. So far more than 300 dead bird events have been confirmed out of 27,000 reports of unexplained dead bird events. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.64%, down -6 bps from yesterday at this time. The 30 year yield is at 5.18%, down -5 bps.  The price of gold is now at US$4648/oz, up +US$12 from yesterday at this time. Silver has firmed +50 USc to just under US$69/oz. Oil prices are down -US$3 from yesterday at just over US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is just under US$88.50/bbl and down -US$3.50.  The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just over 59.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +10 bps at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 63.2, up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$79,195 and up +0.4% from yesterday at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

US makes big economic threats at Iran. Iran blacklists tankers. US economic activity weakens. Canada gets new tariff threat. Singapore inflation up, baby bonus expanded. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we head into the final week of the northern holiday season with financial markets reacting to tough news on multiple fronts. US missteps are catching up with them and that is driving higher interest rates and a lower USD, both a which involve an economic squeeze. Then there is the collapse the US-Canada trade relations which has pushed Canada to matching the new US tariffs. This will hurt both countries, Canada as expected, but the US more than they realise. Carney has brought back the Trudeau response, and this time Canadians have rallied around that reaction. Some significant parts of the US are going to get much higher prices. And as Canada supplies the most of its imported oil and gas, if Canada adds tariffs there, the impact on the US will be magnified. All this will be grist for the Jackson Hole symposium which will be on from Friday to Sunday (NZT). There will be some worried central bankers showing up, and that probably includes Kevin Warsh, likely feeling undermined by Scott Bessent. The outlook on global interest rates and long-term sovereign yields will again be a key focus this week as investors grapple with rising energy prices, increasing deficit spending, and soaring corporate debt. In the US it will be about personal income and spending, PCE inflation, and durable goods data for July, in addition to the key annual revision to nonfarm payrolls. Japan will release consumer confidence survey results and its jobless rate, while rate decisions are due in Korea and Thailand which are widely expected to keep their policy rates unchanged at 1% and 2.75%, respectively, while the Philippine central bank could deliver a +25 bps rate hike to 5% as the country continues to face elevated energy and food prices alongside recent wage increases. Locally it will be about Q2-2026 retail trade outcomes and current employment indicators, some mortgage and KiwiSaver data, and the week will end with the June update to the RBNZ's Dashboard. And in Australia, investors will watch July inflation data where an easing from 3.8% to 3.2% is expected. And Q2 capital expenditure and household spending figures will also drop this week In China, investors will focus on the National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in Beijing from August 25-28, where authorities could signal additional policy support following a string of weak economic data. They will also release July industrial profit results. Over the weekend, China reported US$11.1 bln in foreign direct investment in July, which was half the US$22.8 bln in July 2025. Year to date, their foreign direct investment is running -8.8% lower than in the same period a year ago. And also over the weekend China said its forklift sales are going gangbusters in 2026, both for internal use and for export. CPI inflation rose to 1.9% in Japan in July, their highest since December 2025. (Food prices were up +3.5%.) While the headline rate and the core rate both remain below the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target, the rising trend may be enough for them to raise their 1% policy rate at their next review on September 18, 2026. They have other reasons to raise their policy rate (like, defending the yen, yielding to the US, needing to get back to 'normal' at some stage, etc.) so this may swing it. Japanese business activity is expanding at its quickest rate for six months in August, according to the 'flash' PMI data released today. There were good gains for the factory sector, and these were bolstered by modest gains in their services sector. Of not was a steeper rise in new orders. Cost pressures continued to ease from June's recent record, but remained sharp overall, leading to another near-record increase in selling prices. Businesses are finding they can pass on the extra costs. The 'flash' August PMI's for India show rising activity, especially in their services sector. In the US, the August 'flash' PMI survey from S&P Global shows factory activity easing and now at a five month low. But the services sector is rising with a marginally stronger expansion. Input cost pressures have remained elevated but mainly due to rising fuel prices. Diesel is up +8.4% from a month ago, petrol up +2.2%. Consumer price inflation is biting harder now in the US. Trump announced he will temporarily ease beef tariffs to help lower prices. Local beef producers weren't impressed, warning the move would hurt efforts to rebuild herds. And industry observers say the move will have little effect on the high prices. For someone who claims to love free-market capitalism, he acts in a very interventionist, the-government-knows-best manner. Canada posted a good retail increase for the year to June, up +5.2% although this was a slowing from May. But their July result looks like it will fade somewhat. The weekend USMCA trade deal failure won't help of course. The EU consumer sentiment survey retailed its July improvement in August. It is still deeply negative, but less so that at any time since February. And the ECB updated its inflation expectations survey for July and that shows a minor decrease to 2.9% over the next twelve months, from 3.0% in June. Eurozone business activity continues to rise in August amid stronger manufacturing growth, with their factory PMI now at a 51 month high. According to the S&P Global 'flash' PMIs for August, growth in the Australian private sector is softer this month as the cost environment becomes more challenging in both the factory and services sectors. But both are still expanding. They are still getting rising new orders (in both sectors), but cost pressures have picked up in August. However the ability to pass those extra costs on retreated to its weakest of 2026. And in freight news, El Niño is having an impact on Panama Canal traffic volumes. The authority which runs it says it is reducing traffic levels to 32 ships per day from 36 currently, due to the low water levels. That is an -11% reduction. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.74%, unchanged from Saturday, up +5 bps for the week.  The price of gold is up, now at US$4607/oz, down -US$14 from Saturday at this time, up +US$230 or +5.5% for the week. Silver has dipped -50 USc to just over US$69/oz. Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just over US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$94.50/bbl and up +US$1. From a week ago these prices are +7% higher from then.  The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just over 59.8 USc, up +90 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 63.2, down marginally from Saturday on a yen shift, but up +80 bps from this time last week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$77,147 and down a minor -0.3% from Saturday, but up a whopping +23% jump from last week at this time. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/-1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID  TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may be seeing the end of markets regarding US Treasuries as safe-haven assets – although to be fair it isn’t clear what would replace it. Long-maturity US Treasury yields rose today to reverse the drop we noted yesterday. The yield on the US 10-year bond rose back towards the earlier 20-month high this week before the Bessent action, and the yield on the 30-year bond rose back too. A couple of points are worth making first before we review today's data updates. The first is that it has been the role of the Fed to do QE activity. Maybe Warsh isn't keen now because he is committed to shrinking the Fed's balance sheet. It grew because the Fed wanted to push down rates, and that came with the consequence of massive bond buying. In fact, they moved the needle with "whatever it takes" to the tune of US$3.5 tln in the GFC and the subsequent stabilisation. And then another US$4.5 tln for the pandemic response that started in 2020. They have only paid down US$2.5 tln since. Warsh wants to get that significatly lower. Now Bessent wants to do his own QE, in his case to avoid the political consequence his boss will face - at least push it off "till later'. But his announcement talks of a 'doubling', and that is only an extra of +$2 bln. The Fed was effective with trillions. But Bessent wants to do the same thing with billions. Wall Street hedge funds will be looking for a Bessent put, and unless he delivers his objective the hole thing might collapse rather quickly. Bessent should know - he was a billionaire hedge fund manager on Wall Street who made his fortune gaming the system. The Bessent initiative hardly lasted one day. And this comes as the US Treasury's latest daily cash and debt balances statement shows public debt now exceeds US$40 tln (Table IIIC). Why is this important for us? Well, the world's economy is still being driven by US middle-class consumer demand, the only economic engine large enough to shift the global needle. And we rely on a healthy upbeat global economy. China says it is making an attempt to duplicate this internal consumer demand, but by all accounts it is not succeeding, in part because Chinese consumers are still very risk averse and prioritising savings over consumption, and more so recently. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US fell to 172,000 last week, a slightly larger dip than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.8 mln people on these benefits, also marginally lower than the week before. The August Philly Fed factory survey came in much stronger than expected, building on an outsized July expansion. This is all about current activity. Oddly, new order levels fell. But price pressures did moderate this month. The Conference Board said its Leading Index for the US ticked up in July, marking the fourth increase over the past six months. Most components were positive in July except consumer expectations, which continued to be a notable drag. In Canada, their July producer prices index rose from the prior month to be -12.4% higher than year ago levels. Their raw materials index is up more than +18% on the same basis. Across the Pacific, Japan said its exports swelled +23% in July from a year ago and to an all-time record high, boosted by AI-related semiconductors and data center equipment. Meanwhile, imports were up almost +28%, boosted by fuel imports which were up more than +53% in value. and total imports also hit a new record high. The net was a small trade deficit on merchandise. China held its key lending rates at ultra low levels in the regular monthly update. But these very low rates aren't exactly generating a boom, more just holding things together. The People's Bank of China kept its key lending rates at these record lows for a 15th straight month. And that is what analysts were expecting. And remember Evergrande? Well yesterday a Chinese court sentenced its founder and boss to life imprisonment for "massive fraud". Orders for Taiwanese exports soared +62% in July from a year ago to a new record high of US$98 bln. That follows an outstanding +59% jump in June. Booming global demand for AI-related and technology products continued to fuel overseas sales. This is on top of a July 2025 increase of +21% which at the time seemed like an outstanding achievement. Malaysian exportsjumped an outstanding +38% in July from a year ago to a record high. This was led my electronic exports to the US. Meanwhile, their imports rose +36%, with the fastest rises from India, South Korea, and then China. In Europe, German producer prices rose in July too, only at a +3.0% year-on-year rate but that was their fastest since April 2023. Australian inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage points in August to 4.9%. This follows a three-month period of moderating inflation expectations. Wage expectations also rose in August, after remaining static for a prolonged period. Staying in Australia, full-time jobs rose +16,300 in July but part-time jobs fell -32,200 in the month for a new decrease in employment levels. So instead of the expected +15,000 rise in jobs, they had a -15,800 net fall. While this may seem like a big movement, in fact the June positive result was quite elevated so a leveling out is probably to be expected. Global container freight rates were up +4% last week from the prior week to be double what they were a year ago. Outbound rates from China to the US drove the increase with those up +9% for the week, up +180% from a year ago. Meanwhile bulk cargo rates fell -7.5% this past week to be +40% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.24% and up +4 bps.  The price of gold is up sharply, now at US$4520/oz, up +US$17 from yesterday at this time. Silver has risen another +US$2 to just over US$68. Oil prices are up US$1 from yesterday at just over US$86.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$93.50/bbl and up +US$2.  The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just over 59.4 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +30 bps to 83.6 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.9, up +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$72,813 and up another large +6.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been high at just on +/-3.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Trump Administration has been unnerved by the rising yield investors are demanding for their long-dated bonds. Thy have now moved to "provide liquidity support" for the UST 30 year bond, effectively spending deficit dollars to bid the yield down and the price up on secondary markets. They didn't like the free-market signals, so they are using resources to twist them. Bond professionals are sceptical today's move is anything but a short-term salve because they are still raising huge new funds to support their deficit spending, more than US$½ tln in just the past 60 days. It is a move that has seen the USD fall, gold rise, and pushed up the price of commodities including crude oil. Bitcoin sparked back into life with a sharpish rise too. Elsewhere today, the minutes of the July Fed meeting were released today, the one where there were three dissenters all who wanted to raise rates to counter inflation threats. And it also revealed many non-voting members supported hiking rates too. But to be fair subsequent data has shown that their labour market is cooling rather faster than they anticipated, and that inflation has dipped slightly. It is still well above their policy target however. Today's Treasury interventions and the related inflation-inducing market reactions will be being watched by the twelve voting members closely. Meanwhile, US mortgage applications fell slightly last week, staying weak, and back to levels they were at in the first half of 2025. And US commercial crude oil stocks rose sharply last week taking the rising run to three straight weeks. However, their strategic reserves fell again and is now a levels so low that there are concerns about the physical infrastructure. The USMCA renegotiation deadline with Canada has been pushed back a few days. The Americans say it is because a deal is close. The Canadians say there is still details to be agreed although a deal is close and one far different to the "50%" threat. It will be interesting to see how the Canadian dairy sector fares in all this. The exchange rate market reaction to the US Treasury move has taken the pressure right off the Japanese yen. Japanese machinery orders continued their yo-yo pattern in June, now up +16.9% from a year ago (excluding volatile items). Export orders were particularly strong. In Australia, Big Tech is raising bond financing to support their global AI rollout ambitions. Google raised more than AU$5 bln yesterday after being flooded with more than AU$18 bln in market offers. This is a honeypot sure to attract more Big Tech borrowers. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.20% and down -8 bps.  The price of gold is up sharply, now at US$4503/oz, up +US$150 from yesterday at this time. Silver has risen +US$2 to just over US$66. Oil prices are up another +50 USc from yesterday at just over US$85.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$91.50/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just under 59.3 USc. Against the Aussie we have risen +40 bps to 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.8, up +50 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$68,163 and up a sharp +5.4% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been high at just on +/-3.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news global oil prices have risen again with no end to Trump's Hormuz adventure. In something of a gigantic own-goal, the US economy is losing momentum rather quickly now. But first, the overnight full dairy auction came in better than the futures market had signaled, up +2.3% from the prior full event. This was largely driven by the milk powder gains with WMP up +3.0% and SMP up +7.6%. However, most of the milk fats fell. The overall gains in NZD were slightly better, up +2.6%. But despite this recent turn higher, prices are still almost -9% lower than year-ago levels, even if they are up almost +10% from the start of 2026. In the US, the latest weekly jobs update from ADP has stayed low with less than a +10,000 gain over the past four week. In contrast to the positive July factory report in the New York state region we noted yesterday, their services survey in the same region wasn't very good. The business climate index remained deeply negative, with almost half of respondents reporting unfavourable business conditions. US industrial production data for July was modestly positive from June and that has resulted in a +1.1% gain from a year ago, although lower than the June +1.3% expansion. US pending home sales were lower in July, both from June, and from a year ago. There is no spark in evidence in this sector, and perhaps not surprisingly when home loan interest rates are high at 6.8% and likely to rise from here. Every region is posting both month-on-month and year-on-year declines now. US housing starts fell back sharply in July, down -13.5% from year-ago levels. In fact, the last time they had a July this low was in 2019. And in Canada, they also reported a sharp drop in new housing starts in July, their lowest for that month also since 2019. But July housing market sales actually rose and delivered the highest levels they have had in 2026 (even if this isn't a particularly high bar). Meanwhile, negotiations between Canada and the US over Trumps 50% tariff threat seem to be going nowhere, and they are due to come into effect tomorrow. Interestingly, included in the stoush is Canada's aluminium exports and if they are tariffed, the hurt to US businesses will be significant. In China, they have a slowing momentum too. Households are clearly worried because they hare paying down debt faster and prioritising cash reserves in the face of a glum outlook. In Australia, their consumer sentiment has improved from low levels but it is still net-negative and still below last year's level at this time. The improvement was driven by mortgages holders who were relieved that the RBA didn't increase rates at its last decision. The survey also shows house price expectations declined as the housing market weakened. But renters are less likely to expect price falls and are more downbeat about home purchases. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.71%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold is falling back, now at US$4353/oz, down -US$30 from yesterday at this time. Silver has fallen -US$ to just under US$64. Oil prices are up another +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91/bbl and up +50 USc. Hormuz transits have stayed very low. There has been only one crude tanker and 4 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) and eight entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. There have been deadly attacks on a few of these ships crossing. The Red Sea activity is still only about 20 exits at the Yemen chokepoint, little-change. The Kiwi dollar is down -25 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we have dropped -20 bps to 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -25 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.3, down -30 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,667 and up +0.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran has decided to shift its policy from defensive to "fully offensive" due to the deadlock in efforts to agree a permanent end to its war ​with the United States, a senior Iranian official told Reuters overnight. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a Gulf emirate and until recently an ally. All this is unnerving bond markets with the yield on the US Treasury 30 year bond now at a 22 year high. And they aren't the only long bond yields to rise. Its a trend of higher money costs that is probably only getting started. However domestically in the US, there have been two third-tier data items out today, and both somewhat positive. The NAHB home builder sentiment survey increased very slightly in August from its unusual July low. But it still remains lower than foir most of 2026 as the core affordability pressures haven't really gone away. Meanwhile, the NY Fed's regional Empire factory survey was more positive in its August report with reporting strong current activity and new order flows stayed positive. Employment hardly changed however, and input cost increases rose fast again even if prices received eased. Meanwhile, Canadian inflation was reported back at 3.0% for July, a bit higher than the 2.9% expected and possibly bringing a rate hike there back into play. Rising fuel prices are a key driver here. Across the Pacific in Singapore, they reported very strong July export growth, up +24% from a year ago to a new all-time monthly July record of S$76 bln but not quite eclipsing their June levels. This is all based on the export of electronic equipment. Their big export destinations are the US, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan and India. This exporting strength enabled them to post a very large trade surplus in July. (Imports from China were up, but nowhere near enough to account for the export gains overall. So this isn't a re-export story of the paranoid type.) Japan reported a softer economic activity expansion in Q2-2026 than expected. Analysts had expected their GDP to grow by +2% and up from +1.9% in Q1. But the data released today only shows a +1.1% expansion. But today's data is preliminary and may well be revised higher. Japanese industrial production rose +1.9% in June from May and exceeding the earlier flash indication (which was very good on its own), and far exceeding the May +0.1% rise. This was the third consecutive monthly expansion and the strongest growth since January. And it took the year on year expansion up by an impressive +4.9%. China's industrial production was claimed to be up +4.5% in July from a year ago and basically meeting targets. Within that, they claim hi-tech +16.9% on the same basis. But just like most month before they claim they are doing this with electricity production up only +1.9% in July from the same month in 2025. It seems very implausible, the only country with fast growing industrial output with essentially no growth in electricity used - and over the very long haul. More realistically, China said its retail sales were up only +0.6% in July from a year ago. According to these official sources. China house prices are falling less now. New housing was down -3.2% from a year ago, essentially unchanged from June. In fact many more cities had no change or a small increase especially top-tier cities. Second tier cities aren't getting the same boost however. Existing home sales prices are easing less too. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.73%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.31% and up +4 bps, and that is its highest in more than 20 years.  The price of gold is rising, now at US$4413/oz, up +US$37 from yesterday at this time. Silver has risen +US$1.50 to just over US$66. Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$90.50/bbl and up +US$2.  The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from yesterday at just on 59 USc. Against the Aussie we have dopped -10 bps to 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.6, up +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,245 and up +1.8% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been modest at just on +/-1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US economy is starting to show signs of exhaustion - just as the Chinese economy looks like it can't actually transition to one where internal demand replaces their industrial exports engine, as they were planning. But locally this week it will be all about how July retail sales turned out, and an update on our June population. And there will be a rush of earnings reports out this week from listed companies. In Australia we will get their July labour market update, and both the August Westpac consumer confidence survey results, along with an update of inflation expectations. Globally. t\e ongoing standstill between Iran and the US should continue to dictate energy prices and influence global interest rates. Rates will also take the spotlight with minutes from the last divisive meeting of the Federal Reserve, which included three dissents. More US data is expected to confirm their slowing economy. In Japan there will be a raft of data updates for the world's fourth largest economy, including for GDP, exports, inflation, machinery orders and flash PMI data. Indonesia and Sweden will review policy rates and settings this week. In China, July data released this week will include industrial production, retail sales, house prices, fixed asset investment and their unemployment rate. The People’s Bank of China is also widely expected to leave its one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged at 3% and 3.5%, respectively This will come even though they have surprised with their bank lending actually contracting in July, only the third time ever this has happened and by far the largest retreat. Net new yuan loans fell by -¥340 bln in July when a weak no-change was expected (actually a minor +¥45 bln). July is often a lowish month for new bank lending but this latest data represents some real weaknesses. A slowing economy and poor consumer sentiment, particularly for housing, limited the demand for loans. About -¥460 bln of this fall was for consumer debt. But the swing also reflects the downturn for the traditional business sectors of the economy. Their tech sector commonly raises cash in the bond market instead of bank loans. So within this result there may be evidence of a structural shift. Taiwan said its economic activity came in +12.9% higher in Q2-2026 from a year ago, lower than the +15.4% rise in Q1-2026.GDP. It was still the second-best growth pace they have recorded in almost 50 years. Malaysia said its economic activity expanded +6.0% in Q2-2026, a rise from the +5.4% in Q1-2026 and better than the expected +5.7%. In India, the bank lending impulse has the taps open fully, with lending up more than +19% at the end of July from the same point a year ago. This is a new modern record rise rate, and to record levels. Across the Pacific, US retail sales took an unexpected dip in July from June. They fell -0.6% on that basis when a +0.1% rise to compliment June's rise was expected. This is a big miss and was the first decline since October 2025 and the largest in over a year. Weaker sales at online retailers, car dealers, petrol stations and electronics stores shifted the needle, so it was a broad based dip. From a year ago, these July sales were still up +5.2% from earlier gains. Also dipping was US consumer sentiment, but this is for August, so the dour mood is extending. The widely-watched University of Michigan survey came in back at levels that followed the US attacks on Iran, so the July rise was an anomaly. A small easing was expected, but not one this big. Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up from 4.2% in July to 4.3% this month. Inflation and inflation expectations are key for the Fed. The new boss Kevin Warsh may not want to talk about the elevated threats, but other regional governors are, some who vote. The Atlanta Fed's boss isn't one of those but she says inflation is too high and risks staying like that and embedding unless the Middle East situation resolves quickly. The Chicago Fed's boss is worried too. Current CPI is 3.4% officially, but the Cleveland Fed nowcasts the PCE measure of inflation and their latest update has it at over 3.7%. These levels are a long way from the mandated 2% policy rate and Warsh is likely to get out-voted when they next meet in Mid-September. Financial markets currently price in one chance in three of a +25 bps rise then. And for the record, current US petrol prices are now +5.7% higher than month-ago levels. Diesel is +11% higher on that same basis. Their inflation threat is not receding. Meanwhile the EU reported that Q2-2026, economic activity rose +0.4% in the euro area and by +0.5% in the overall EU compared with the previous quarter, up +1.0% and +1.2% respectively from a year ago. So recent activity is picking up, although in a way that was broadly anticipated. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +5 bps for the week.  The price of gold is stable, now at US$4376/oz, up just +US$2 from Saturday, up +US$39 from this time last week. Silver has held at just over US$64.50/oz, up a net +US$1 for the week. Oil prices are unchanged from Saturday at just under US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$88.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$78 and US$83.50/bbl respectively, so a +6% weekly rise.  The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc and unchanged for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are still at 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just over 62.5, unchanged from this time Saturday and very similar to a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,102and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -2.6% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been very low at just on +/-0.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news ship traffic in the Hormuz Strait is now at a complete standstill. But oil prices have eased slightly all the same. So, Wall Street rose and to new record highs. In the US, there were +187,000 initial jobless claims last week, a slightly larger increase than seasonal factors can account for. There are now just over 1.8 mln on these benefits, a fall from last week as the very much tighter qualification requirements keep people off these unemployment programs. US producer prices came in slightly lower than expected for July, up +4.7% from a year ago, down from +5.5% in June and lower than the +4.9% expected. A notable fall in July fuel costs offset all other rises in the month. There was a well supported US Treasury 30 year bond auction earlier today, but investors wanted and got higher yields. They came in at a median 5.16% (high 5.22%) which is a 25 year high and something of a warning to the US Administration. This was up from the prior equivalent event median of 5.01% a month ago. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Hammack restated her view that the ‌US central bank should raise rates immediately to bring down too-high inflation and restrain business growth and investment. She is a current FOMC voting member. She said she "lacks confidence" the current do-nothing policy will get inflation back to its target. Meanwhile the Richmond Fed boss Barkin says he is happy to wait. Barkin is not a current FOMC voting member. In Japan, their central bank wants to raise its 1% policy rate from here, and reports indicate that it has government backing for the move now. It could come at the next review in mid-September. Markets have priced in a 75% chance. Japanese producer prices have been rising fast recently and were up 7.2% in July from a year ago. But there was essentially no rise in July from June, so they are starting to see some heat dissipate. India reported strong exports, its third highest monthly total ever, in July, and up +19% from the same month in 2026. But they also reported record high imports, driven by fuel imports. In the EU. euro area industrial production rose in June, very slightly (+0.1%), when a fall (-0.8%) was expected. In the wider EU region, the gain was even better. Production of consumer goods led the way with a strong June result. Gains in Denmark, Poland and Finland were notable. Germany and France dipped. In Australia, regulators there are warning that online brokers are targeting retail investors with complex or high-risk products without clearly disclosing their risks or conducting proper onboarding, leaving those who respond exposed to risky products that could see them lose their investments within hours.  New semi-annual pay data out yesterday in Australia revealed a softening trend in the private sector. Overall average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults were AU$2,084 in May, up just +1.6% overall in the period, up +3.7% for the year. These are the slowest increase rates since 2022. Rises in public sector pay are running at nearly twice the pace of the private sector. Recall, CPI inflation there was at 3.8% in the year to June - so no real gains. Global container freight rates were up a mere +1% last week from the prior week but are +85% higher than year-ago levels. That weekly data masks sharply higher rates to the US from China, offset by lower rates from China to the EU. Bulk cargo rates fell -4.2% in the past week from a cycle high and are now +45% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold is falling, now at US$4357/oz, down -US$60 from yesterday. Silver has fallen almost -US$1 to just over US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are down -US$1 from yesterday at just under US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$88/bbl. Hormuz transits have virtually vanished. There has been no crude tankers and only 1 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and just two entering for new loads (0 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is now less than 10 exits at the Yemen chokepoint. The Kiwi dollar is down another -10 bps from yesterday at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding soft at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.1 which is also down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,141 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the pressure is off the US Fed from inflation threats, temporarily at least. First today, and as markets had expected, US CPI inflation came in at 3.4% in July, dipping from 3.5% in June. Food prices were up +3.0% from a year ago, petrol prices up more than +24%. From June petrol prices fell -2.9% however, which was a bit more than expected. (In August, petrol prices dipped slightly in the first week, but have since started rising again.) Rents were up +3.2%. Electricity prices were up +4.2%. US core inflation - without food and energy - was up +2.5% and this is probably the Fed's get-out-of-jail card. US PCE July inflation data is next due August 27. US mortgage applications recovered notably last week, up +3.6% from the prior week after four of the prior six weeks were decreases. The rise was driven by refinance activity, borrowers who could not wait any longer and taking advantage of a very minor dip in mortgage rates to 6.77% (which will seem high to our readers). Last week, the US reported a huge surge in crude oil stocks, the larges weekly rise in more than three years. It wasn't expected - in fact another retreat was expected. It is not clear why, because it wasn't driven by imports, according to this data. Strategic reserves will next be reported at month-end. The August USDA WASDE report has raised its estimates for beef imports in 2026 and 2027, and lowered its expected milk prices marginally. The US Treasury reported a much larger budget deficit for July than expected, and the expected July deficit was outsized to start with. They ended up with almost a -US$½ tln deficit in the month alone. The public mismanagement is now epic. For their fiscal year to September, they will be reporting a deficit of at least US$2 tln (-US$1.95 tln over the past 12 months), easily a new record. Trump's swamp creatures are helping themselves. Meanwhile, a well-supported UST 10yr auction delivered a yield of 4.63% today (high ofg 4.68%), compared to 4.53% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Canadian building consents jumped notably in June, up +18% from the same month a year ago driven by non-residential construction. Residential construction rose too, just not as sharply as the commercial sector. In Japan, the Reuters Tankan index for manufacturers rose in August to its highest reading since March. Leading the mood improvement was solid semiconductor demand. But the chemicals also rose along with the metal and machinery sector. Non-manufacturers' sentiment also rose, buoyed by strong domestic consumption. This survey likely points to a similar rise in the official Tankan survey that will come later in August. Japanese machine tool orders continued their very strong growth in July, up +50% from a year ago and which the value wasn't a record, it was very close. These orders have taken off since March 2026. Demand was huge from both domestic and export customers. China's vehicle sales slipped below 2.5 mln in July and recorded a year on year dip of -0.3%. But it is the September to December period when their domestic vehicle sales usually peak. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, dipping -2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold is holding at US$4417/oz, up +US$51 from yesterday. Silver has risen +US$1 to just over US$65.50/oz. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low.  The Kiwi dollar is down -25 bps from yesterday at just under 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -40 bps at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we have retreated -20 bps to 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -30 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,420 and down a -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts its conditions. So, stalemate there. However, financial markets are kind of shrugging off these risks. Pakistan claims both sides are still talking however. First up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought a stabilisation in prices with the powders rising about +2% and the milk fats little-changed from last week's full dairy auction. In the US, the ADP weekly jobs monitoring of private payrolls continues to slide, and is under +10,000 and its lowest level since the Christmas holiday season. US existing home sales fell -1.7% in July from June, to be now just +1.7% higher than year-ago levels. US household debt data shows it having topped out with the June quarter lower than the March quarter, which itself was lower than the December 2025 year end level. This is essentially because standard mortgage debt levels fell. But home equity loans rose, as did credit card debt, and car loans. Delinquency rates for credit card debt and car loans remained elevated but didn't get worse in this Q3-2026 data. Sentiment in the US SME sector rose in July, but only back to levels that it had prior to the start of Trump's war on Iran. It is now little different to levels they had from the start of 2025 until March 2026. Eyes are now turning to tomorrow's US inflation data for July. This is expected to stay high at 3.4% and only marginally lower than June's 3.5% and as such it will put pressure on the Warsh-led Fed to move to get inflation back into its policy band around 2%. There seems little likelihood of any progress without some policy action. Across the Pacific, Singapore’s economy grew +5.9% in Q2-2026, slowing from a +6.3% expansion in Q1 which was their strongest annual growth since Q3-2024. But this latest updated exceeded advance estimates of a +5.7% expansion. In Malaysia, industrial production slowed again in June and is now 'only' +6.5% higher than year ago levels. It was +8.3% higher on that basis in the month before. But their factory production was up almost +10% on the year-ago basis and that is an accelerating rate. It has been their mining sector that is the one that is falling away. In Australia, the rebound in business confidence as tracked in the influential NAB survey stalled in July as Middle East uncertainty and oil price volatility continued to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile business conditions showed signs of stabilising after weakening earlier in the year. A Westpac survey for the same period showed the same thing. The RBA has left its cash rate target at 4.35% as widely expected. But is has raised expectations that hikes could come soon if inflation does not retreat in the way they want, but only if market conditions don't move first as they need. One thing they do expect is lower house prices and that will help the affordability crisis. Abd we should probably note that aluminium prices are on the rise again. Although not back to their record high levels in early June, they have shifted sharply up in the past week, perhaps due to their central role in the US-Canada trade discussions. It is a key card Canada holds over the US. Trump's punitive 50% tariffs on Canada are due to kick in on August 20 (NZT). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.69%, dipping -1 bp from this time yesterday but essentially holding its new level.  The price of gold is holding at US$4366/oz, up merely +US$2 from yesterday. Silver has dipped -50 USc at just over US$64.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$83.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low. There have been two crude tankers and only 1 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and seven entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is where the focus is shifting and still low with less than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.5 which is unchanged from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,563 and down a -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news rising oil prices are reigniting inflation concerns and even equity investors have noticed. Bond investors have bid up benchmark bond rates. The Fed next has to deal with this risk in just over a month, but that investors are moving now indicates the heightened concern that Trump's quagmire isn't getting resolved anytime soon. Certainly, his promise of a deal with Iran "very soon", has vanished. Meanwhile, the Yemeni Houthis have struck Saudi related tankers and hit a Saudi oil refinery. So, the conflict is spreading. Markets have reacted as though they expect inflation to rise from here. In Japan, their official 'economy watchers' July survey is signaling continued improvement, especially in their services sector. These survey results took a sharp tumble when the US attacked Iran and the Strait of Hormuz was shuttered. But since then it has climbed back as time has shown that most of the world has adapted effectively, and that includes Japan. Strong exports and a weaker currency have helped. You may recall the recent deadly earthquake in the historic city of Kumamoto. But that hasn't stopped Sony and Taiwan's TSMC announcing yesterday a US$6.3 bln new joint investment into an advanced image sensor plant there. Nikkei has the details. Indonesia’s consumer confidence fell in July from June to its lowest level since April 2025 although still in positive territory. The moderation was largely driven by weaker assessments of current economic conditions. And staying in Indonesia, their government has appointed the long-experienced deputy central bank governor to the top position made vacant by the President firing him, foregoing the opportunity to appoint the daughter of the President. This will reassure financial markets that some Turkish-like instability is being avoided. In Australia, bank shares are took a beating yesterday, with Westpac down -5.9%, CBA down -2.1%, ANZ down -1.7% and NAB down -2.4%. The reason is a Westpac Q3 market update that shows their mortgage applications down -11% in the period and are running down -20% following their Federal Budget. Almost all of this fall away is because residential investors are pulling back because the expectation of capital gains is vanishing. Westpac says investor "credit growth" will fall from +9.1% this year to about +4.5% in the next two years. They expect little change in demand by owner occupiers. And don't forget there is an RBA monetary policy review later today. No-one expects any official rate change, but given the high and sticky inflation levels, there will be a lot of interest in their analysis of why they aren't moving to quash it. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4364/oz, up +US$21 from yesterday. Silver has risen +US$1.50 at just over US$65/oz. Oil prices are up +US$4 from yesterday at just under US$82/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$87.50/bbl, Hormuz transits have dried right up. There have been no crude tankers and only 2 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and five entering for new loads (1 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is where the focus is shifting and still low with less than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,860 and down a full -2.0% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just on +/-1.2%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are facing a new burst in inflation as commodity prices rise, oil and gold both are rising, and benchmark interest rates are stuck high waiting to see where these tea leaves settle. Locally this week we will get June migration data, and inflation expectation updates. There also will be the July PMI update and probably the July REINZ results as well. In Australia, look out for their NAB business sentiment update, but the key event will be the RBA's rate review on Tuesday even if no-change is expected or priced in. That is despite their CPI at 3.8% and running way above their target range of 2% to 3%, and showing little sign it will get back within range any time soon. In the US, they will release their July CPI data too (expect 3.4%), their PPI (expect 5.5%) and another consumer sentiment update. In China, we are awaiting their new yuan debt data which should come late this week and be another quite weak result (expect just +¥45 bln). Over the weekend China released their CPI inflation data, revealing an annual inflation rate of just 0.5% in July, down from 1.0% in the previous month. Analysts had expected an 0.8% rate in July so this was their lowest level since January. Food prices dropped 1.5% year-on-year, following a 1.6% decline in the previous month and marking the fourth straight month it fell. But beef prices rose +4.5% and lamb prices by +6.2% in July from a year ago. Dairy product prices were -1.5% lower however. Meanwhile, China’s producer prices rose +3.5% in July from a year ago, slowing from a 4.1% rise in June, and that is their steepest rise in nearly four years. The retreating pace is due to weaker commodity prices, softer domestic demand, and continued pressure from overcapacity. There is also intense price competition in some industries. China’s exports surged almost +24% to US$398 bln in July in a better than expected result. The gains were driven by strong demand for AI-related technology products and a rush by manufacturers to ship goods to the US ahead of potential new tariffs. Outbound shipments to the US rose +17%, the EU by +16%, and to ASEAN nations by +38%. And while China reported relatively stable foreign exchange reserves as at the end of July, they also reported that their official gold holdings rose +640,000 oz, almost +20 tonnes in one month. That is the most in a 21 month streak of gold buying. Meanwhile Typhoon Dolphin is heading for the China coast after clipping Okinawa, due to strike south of Shanghai. It is a Cat 3 storm and over 1 mln people have been evacuated to safer ground. Taiwanese exports stayed very high at US$75.3 bln, just off record levels, but as time rolls on with these high or record high levels, the year-on-year gains are fading. Still, they managed to report a +33% rise from a year ago, an unusually strong gain. And their trade surplus remained unusually large at +US$17.2 bln, up from +US$14.3 bln in July 2025. Across the Pacific in the US economy, and even with Trump loyalists controlling the data agency, US non-farm payrolls were reported contracting in July, down -23,000 at the headline level when a very modest +80,000 was expected. That is their worst July result in at least a decade. And it get much worse if you look at actual data because payrolls shrank almost -1.1 mln in July from June before seasonal adjustment. This is the real number of people who lost employment in the month. Their participation rate inched down while their jobless rate was little-changed at 4.1%. US inflation expectations for one year ahead edged down to 3.6% in July from 3.7% in June which was the highest since September 2023. The July level is the new baseline since the US attacked Iran. Prior to that, this survey recorded about 3% for the prior two years. Earnings in the same survey are seen to rise +2.8%, so that continues to record an underwater expectation for household finances. US consumer debt levels rose +3.3% in June with revolving credit rising +6.0% on the same basis as both credit card debt and car loans rising sharply. Student loans recorded an unusual fall. A weakening labour market and both stubbornly high inflation and inflation expectations will complicate the discussions in Warsh's Fed meetings. Do they cut, hold or raise. There are probably votes for all three options. Markets currently price in half a chance of a +25 bps hike in September. And Trump is back trying to screw the scrum. There was quite the contrast in Canada with them reporting their employment rose +75,100 in July from June. It will have been a very long time since they had a gain that exceeded their southern neighbour. Their jobless rate fell to 6.4% and a two year low while their participation rate inched up. Bird flu is spreading in Australia, even if the number of reported cases is still quite minor. There is no way to properly track it, and by the time reports are received, infection is well established.... The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.66%, up +2 bps from this time Saturday but down -8 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4343/oz, up +US$6 from Saturday, up +US$293 or +7% from a week ago. Silver has held little-changed at just over US$63.50/oz. That is up +US$5.50/oz for the week or a +9.5% gain. Oil prices are unchanged from yesterday and still just over US$78/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just on US$83.50/bbl, A week ago these prices were US$84.50 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There have been only three crude tanker and 6 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and eight entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with just 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just over 58.9 USc, making it unchanged for the week. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is up a bit less than +10 bps from this time Saturday essentially unchanged for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,151 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday, up +3.3% from last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low however at just on +/-0.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the lurch. Through all this, crude prices are rising again, and US pump prices never dopped back during the recent fall in crude prices. That has bond markets worried that inflation may be about to turn up again, and yields rose somewhat today. In the US, July job cut announcements were very low. In fact, US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in the month, the fewest in two years. But AI led all reasons for job cuts for a fifth straight month and was responsible for almost 11,000 during the month. The tech sector cut the most jobs, followed by the financial sector. Cut is government , and services were almost non-existent. This data comes ahead of tomorrow's July non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show jobs growth a very low +80,000. US jobless claims dipped last week but only by what seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.84 mln people on these benefits slightly lower than a year ago, and two years ago. Tough eligibility restrictions are restraining enrollment in conjunction with tougher restrictions on eligibility for SNAP (food stamps). More than 4 mln people have been cleared from these programs and much tougher restrictions are coming. The USDA has restricted access to data recording the numbers of people receiving this assistance. While still elevated, the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eased low in July. In Europe, retail sales sagged slightly in June, dipping -0.1% from May when a +0.1% rise was expected. That leaves them up +1.2% from a year ago on a real/volume basis. Meanwhile, German factory orders rose +3.1% in June from May to be +6.5% higher than year ago levels, an accelerating pace from May. Apart from a few newsworthy bumps in between, in fact these order levels have been on an upswing since September 2025. Strong export growth in June delivered Australia an unexpected trade surplus, of +AU$1.9 bln when a deficit of -AU$1.1 was expected after May's -AU$2.4 bln deficit. Their exports rose +8.6% from a year ago, boosted by an unusual rise in gold exports, up more than +25% from the same month a year ago. Global container freight rates turned up marginally last week from the prior week to be +77% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China to the US drove the rise, which rates to and from the EU were lower. Those rates have to compete with the very fast & successful overland rail service out of China. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates jumped more than +12% in the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has dipped to US$4245/oz, down -US$8 from yesterday. Silver has dipped -50 USc at just over US$61.50/oz. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday and now just under US$77.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$82.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been no crude tanker and 11 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and nine entering for new loads (4 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with just a few more than than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. Alternative routes are now making a significant, if costly, difference. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.4 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,550 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran and Oman say they have a deal on the Hormuz Strait, and the US says it is still hoping for a deal to open it up. But the US no longer has any cards, it seems. Away from all that in the US, mortgage applications fell again last week with both new loan and refinance activity falling, probably due to the continued rise in home loan interest rates and pushing them up to year-ago levels of 6.81%. Their ADP jobs report only signaled +44,000 July jobs added to private payrolls, much less than the expected low +70,000 and the low June level of +95,000. This report is the precursor to Saturday's July non-farm payrolls release where analysts expect July payrolls to have expanded +202,000. Those analysts may be in for some disappointment. The ISM services PMI for July came in little-changed at a modest-to-moderate reading, boosted by good new order levels but held back by faster rising costs. Also, jobs in the sector contracted. Meanwhile the S&P Global version of the US services PMI recovered to a similar level, reporting activity rises at their strongest rate since October 2025, job creation at highest for eight months amid an improved outlook, but much steeper rises in both input costs and selling prices. US crude oil stocks recovered somewhat last week with a rare rise. But this may have been because they are still drawing down their strategic reserves at a rate that is worrying many and now at almost an all-time low since 1983. In China, their private S&P Global (RatingDog) services PMI fell back sharply. It is still expanding, but now only just. Total activity and new business both expand more slowly. Employment rose for third month running, the longest sequence since the second half of 2024. And they recorded the weakest rise in average input prices since January. Yes, this survey is better than the contracting official version, but the fall-away was faster in this report. Singapore's retail sales rose sharply in June to be +4.0% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile their PMI rose faster and near its best-ever, but largely because firms there built stocks to retain resilience. Japan's services PMI expanded at a slower pace in July as cost pressures remain intense there. And Indonesia said its economic activity was +5.3% higher in June than a year ago with the expected rebound from the Q1 dip coming as expected - but slightly better than anticipated. The copper price has surged again, now at a new all-time high of US$14,825/tonne (NZ$25,000/tonne, and at $25/kg no doubt a new target for thieves.). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.62%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4253/oz, up +US$165 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$2.50 at just over US$62/oz. Oil prices are down another -US$1.50 from yesterday and now just on US$74.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$79/bbl and down -50 USc. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been only one crude tanker and 6 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and eleven entering for new loads (6 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with much less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday at just over 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,698 and up +1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price has taken another large retreat today even though the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz remain essentially closed. Alternative ways to shift crude oil out of the region are gathering pace and effectiveness. But this big price drop is directly related to Scott Bessent saying a deal with Iran to reopen the Streat is imminent, comments that have moved markets. But first up today, there was another full dairy auction earlier this morning and prices in USD were virtually unchanged overall (+0.1%), but they did dip in NZD by -0.9% on the higher currency. Of note is the new season volumes offered, very similar to the same event a year ago. But prices are now a full -10% lower this year than then. In the US, job openings fell in June, coming in slightly less than expected. The number of job openings fell in almost all industries except in the logistics sector and in federal government. Regionally, openings fell in the Northeast (-62,000), the South (-50,000), and the Midwest (-97,000), but rose in the West (+32,000). Also falling were US factory orders. They dipped -0.3% from the previous month in June, extending the revised -1.1% decline in May. This was disappointing because analysts had expected a +0.2% increase. It was the first month of back-to-back declines in nearly one year. Still, they are up more than +10% from June a year ago, reflecting the earlier stockpiling urgency. Meanwhile US exports of both goods and services fell -0.9% in June while their imports of both fell -1.8% on the same basis. That narrowed their trade deficit although not be as much as expected. The US Logistics Managers Index is still very high, but is now slowing as the stockpiling urgency seems 'full' now. July demand for warehouse capacity and transportation both actually retreated in the month. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index edged down in August from July, missing market expectations of an improvement and remaining below the neutral level. The Six-Month Economic Outlook index fell on weaker expectations for the US economy. In Canada's June exports rose as did their imports, both much more than expected and delivering a larger trade surplus than expected, to a four year high. Canada's transition away from dependence on its now-unreliable southern neighbour has been impressive, you have to say. In China, they have set a new target to reach 50% of electricity produced from non-fossil fuels by 2030, up fron 42% now. It is a heady and fast goal. In Australia, household spending rose +0.8% in June from may to be +6.0% higher than year-ago levels. This is a very consistent rising trend from September 2024 when it was at under +1% from the prior year. This high gain was largely due to increased spending on cars, especially EVs, and for travel. And we must note that the H5 bird flu is killing more birds in Australia now. It is getting closer, even in Eastern states. As we noted yesterday, the copper price has risen again and is now over US$14,000/tonne and back at record highs. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4088/oz, up +US$55 from yesterday. Silver is up +US$2 at just over US$59.50/oz. Oil prices are down another -US$4 from yesterday and now just under US$76/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$79.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There have been only three crude tanker and 9 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (7 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with much less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is back up +30 bps from yesterday at just over 58.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we have firmed +10 bps to 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is back up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,915 and up +0.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.7%. Join us later this morning for the June update of the New Zealand labour market. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we are now in the peak vacation season in the northern hemisphere with policy activity relatively low. But US petrol costs are high in this summer driving season. Trump continues to claim he is negotiating with Iran. Iran continues to deny any talks are taking place. Still, this stalemate is a relatively peaceful one, but one that leaves Iran and Oman holding all the cards in the Hormuz Strait. In the US, their widely-watched ISM factory PMI came in slightly better than expected with a good expansion, one marginally stronger than the S&P Global PMI result we noted yesterday. This ISM version recorded stronger new order flows and prices increasing at a slower pace. In China, their top leadership is 'vacationing' as usual at the beach resort of Beidaihe. Oddly, Xi doesn't appear to be there. Over the weekend we noted that China's official factory PMIs all turned down, and into contraction territory. The private S&P Global version has been less gloomy in the past, but yesterday's release also shows a sector slipping in July from June. But at least this alternate version is not yet contracting. And they feature rising new order levels, which is promising. India's July factory PMI is still expanding at a solid pace, but that paces has now slipped to its lowest in five years. New order intakes are rising but slower, and input cost pressures are easing there. And while we are at it, we should note that the factory PMIs for Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia all remained quite positive and expansionary. All of these noted that cost pressures are also easing now. The Australian version is rising too, but cost pressures there are still elevated. In Australia, the Cotality Home Value Index dropped -0.7% in July from June, the sharpest monthly decline since December 2022 and accelerating from a -0.4% fall in the prior month. The drop was after higher mortgage rates, affordability pressures, and soft consumer sentiment that all hurt housing demand. Sydney and Melbourne lead the downturn, with home values falling -1.4% and -1.2%, respectively in a month. Staying in Australia, the Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge increased materially in July, after falling in the previous two months. The increase was broad-based, with annual headline inflation of 4.0%. The monthly cost of living also increased across a range of household types. Later this week we will jet the June household spending data from the ABS and also their cost of living indicators. This MI data suggests whatever those ABS results in June, things will get worse in July. We should note that the copper price is rising again, making another tilt at the record highs it reached in May and June this year. It is now back up at US$14.330/tonne, just -2% below that record peak. At the rate it moves, it could breach that very soon. AI build-out demand, as supply constraints deepen, are driving this latest rush. Some of it is stockpiling in the expectation Trump will queer the pitch with a tariff move. In any event, the world's big mining firms are shifting away from iron ore to copper mining, chasing these riches. We could probably also note that SpaceX 'listed' at US$135/share but opened at US$160. It is now struggling to hold US$110/share today. Not helping are that 'lockup' investors and staff are now net sellers. Shorting SpaceX seems to be a growth game. We should probably also keep an eye on accounting firm KPMG. The consequences of its horror story in Australia are about to be played out, with maybe global implications. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.69%, down -6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4033/oz, down -US$9 from yesterday. Silver is little-changed at just over US$57.50/oz. Oil prices are down -US$4.50 from yesterday and now just under US$80/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$83.50/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been only one crude tanker and 6 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and five entering for new loads (2 dark), all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low at about 20 either way. That is kept low because only Chinese-bound vessels are getting Houthi exemptions. The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday at just over 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.4 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,851 and up +0.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now we are in August, there are only 100 working days until Christmas, and less than 70 until our 2026 general election! You will need to pull your finger out to ensure your 2026 goals are on track to be accomplished. This week will see the release of a number of updates on how the July real estate market performed. More importantly, we will get the June labour market update and that is expected to show rising joblessness (to 5.4%). To be fair, labour market data are lagging indicators. In Australia, Cotality and Domain will report what they saw in their residential real estate markets. And we will get both household spending and cost of living updates for June this week, neither expected to show improvements. We should also note that their fuel excise tax suspension ended last night. From April to June the discount was 32 AUc/liter, for June and July it was 16c. Now there is no relief discount there. Globally it will be all about July PMIs (other than keeping an eye on the warmongers who all show a distinct lack of any idea on how to end the conflicts they started). In the US, the other important data will be their end of week labour market updates in their non-farm payrolls report. There is little evidence to suggest it will be a strong one and markets currently expect another month of less than +100,000 gains (+91,000) and a rising jobless rate (4.3%). We will be tracking their bond market signals closely too. And that the Trump Organisation is regarded by banks as a money-laundering entity barely raises an eyebrow these days, indicates how low the US has fallen. But also, a key background reason risk premiums are rising. In India, they will get a central bank review but no-change to their policy rate (5.25%) is anticipated. We will be tracking those PMIs too, especially in China to see if the private S&P Global versions continue to be more upbeat than the dour official versions. After four months of minor expansion, those official factory PMIs has slipped back into small contraction with a much sharper shift than was expected. After two months of minor expansion, their official services PMI also slipped back into a small contraction, also a sharper shift lower than expected. China's overall growth targets are looking less likely to be achieved the longer the year goes on. But lets not overstate these pullback signals; most countries would love to have their growth levels even at the reduced impetus. China's key issue is that new order levels are fading and exports are the key driver, not internal consumption (which is their goal). So more induced infrastructure stimulus is on the way. Korean industrial production bounced back sharply in June after the minor but unexpected dip in May. The June level was +5.8% higher than a year ago, up +2.3% from May, a heartening rebound for them. The Korean stock market bounced back sharply on Friday after the earlier dives, but they still ended the week down more than -3%. Japanese industrial production recorded a similar recovery in June, up +4.2% from a year ago, up +1.3% for the month. But that was not matched by retail sales in Japan which took a rather large tumble, down -4.1% from the strong year-ago level, up +0.5% from May. The Japanese central bank intervention support for their currency may have been significantly expensive, even if it has succeeded in halting the devaluation with a 3% recovery. Reports indicate they spent US$45 to US$50 bln on the few-days effort. It happened again on Friday, this time in a joint action with the US. And more may be coming. EU inflation came in at 2.9% in July as expected, up marginally from June's 2.8%. Australian producer prices rose +3.6% in June from a year ago, the most since early 2025 and above the anticipated +2.5% and even the 'high' Q1-2026 3.0% level. Inflation is embedding and it is a result that will focus attention by officials. In the US, even though the US Fed held its policy rate unchanged last Thursday (despite 3 dissenters wanting higher rates), markets have pushed US benchmark rates higher anyway. The UST 10 year is +27 bps higher at the end of July than at the beginning. Their 30 year benchmark is also +27 bps higher. Most of these increases came in the past two weeks, and will resonate soon for American home loan borrowers. The updated July University of Michigan sentiment survey confirmed its better July levels, and confirmed lower inflation expectations. Still, these new levels are -11% lower than year-ago levels with perceptions of current conditions -19% lower. These measures are still in the down-trend that started in 2024 even after these better July results. They noted that US consumers remain focused on pocketbook issues like purchasing power, while political or military developments remain more in the background. Also improving in July were the results of the Chicago PMI, clearly benefiting from stockpiling and reshoring still. In the current Q2-2026 earnings season reporting, 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 77% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive revenue surprise. In Canada, they reported their GDP rose modestly in June, a third consecutive rise and the fifth gain in six months as their economy gathers steam. Q2-2026 results aren't yet available but it is clear they will be quite positive, in contrast to the small dip in Q1-2026, and the weak Q2-2025 result. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.75%, up +1 bp from this time Saturday, up +7 bps for the week. We make that its highest since January 2025 (briefly) and prior to that October 2023. The 30 year yield is at 5.28% and a 20+ year high.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$8 from Saturday down -US$6 for the week. Silver is down -50 USc at just over US$57.50/oz, down -US$1 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday still at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just over US$88/bbl.  The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.9 USc, but up +100 bps for the week and back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 83.8 AUc. Against the euro we unchanged at 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.6 which is also unchanged from this time Saturday, and also up +100 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,293 and up +0.4% from this time Saturday, down -1.4% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the giant US economy is slowing. It hasn't had three consecutive lackluster quarters in at least a decade, certainly not since the GFC. US jobless claims fell last week but by less than seasonal factors would have suggested. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than last year at this time but only marginally less than two years ago. US PCE inflation fell in June to 3.7% from 4.0% in May, as analysts had expected. But that is way higher than the Fed used to say it would tolerate. Personal disposable income rose less than personal spending, and for a fifth consecutive month. Meanwhile, their Q2-2026 GDP update sagged in its first estimate, now up +1.5% and lower than the Q1-2025 final reading of +2.0%. Analysts had expected Q2 to come in at 2.1% so this data is a disappointment. It does mean a Fed rate hike is probably off the table, so equity markets rose. But so did long term bond yields although there was a notable pullback in short term yields and so their rate curve steepened sharply. The USD also took a tumble and is now down -1.6% in just the past two days. As expected, China’s top leadership pledged to roll out targeted stimulus measures to support their economy in the second half of the year. The directives, issued at a Politburo meeting yesterday, come as the world’s second-largest economy faces weak domestic demand and deepening structural imbalances. Second-quarter growth has been lower than they need to reach their targets. In Japan, observers see a Bank of Japan market intervention to support the yen. The yen rose sharply to the 157 range against the US dollar at one point yesterday, its strongest level since mid-May. Staying in Japan, consumer sentiment picked up in July but that is off a lowish base and it is barely back to its 2023-2024 levels. Sentiment surveys in the EU were out too for July and they rose again to extend their streak for both consumers and business sentiment.. EU GDP results for Q2-2026 were also released overnight, rising to 1.2% from a year ago. For them, that is quite positive. In Germany, CPI inflation rose 2.8% in July, up from 2.3% in June which was below what they had in prior months, so more back at trend. The Bank of England reviewed their monetary policy overnight, but made no changes. In Australia in a briefing released on the ASX, banking major NAB noted that their "total Australian home lending applications were 15% lower than the prior quarter". Staying in Australia, they reported that the number of new dwellings consented rose +7.2% in June from May to 18,328 (up +8.9% from a year ago). Houses were up only +0.4% but other dwellings were up almost +18% from May, although that doesn't quite take them back to year-ago levels despite this recent surge. Yesterday, Ampol (the owner of Z Energy here) reported sharply increased margins. Clearly refiners have been adding much more to retail prices than just the higher cost of crude. Global air travel fell in June, not by a lot, but essentially driven by sharp retreats in Middle East travel. Also unusual is a fall-off in both domestic and international travel in North America, an unexpected shift. Domestic air travel in China was also unusually weak. Container freight rates fell again last week, down -3% but they remain +70% higher than year-ago levels. Bulk cargo rates also fell marginally to be -24% lower than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is nearly at a 20 year high. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +44 bps (+13 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (+8 bps) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +100 bps (+6 bps). There has been a sharp steepening of the US rate curve today, a harsh market verdict on the Warsh performance yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4105/oz, up +US$30 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have dipped by -50 USc from yesterday at now just under US$84/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$89/bbl and down -US$1.50. Hormuz transits are still constrained. There have been 3 crude tankers and only 7 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and ten entering for new loads (4 dark). The Red Sea activity is still low at less than 20 either way. The Kiwi dollar is up +100 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc and suddenly back to early June levels. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have risen +30 bps to 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.5 which is up +80 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,802 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US and the world are facing a new jolt of inflation as the hot war activity spread. The US central bank response? ignore the risks and pretend things will return to normal soon. But first, US mortgage applications fell sharply last week, their largest dip since mid-May, and driven by a -10% fall in refinance activity. And that came as their benchmark mortgage interest rate rose yet again, now its highest in a year. Also falling sharply last week were US crude oil stocks, down much more than expected. They have fallen in 12 of the past 14 weeks, and this latest one is one of the larger retreats. Worse perhaps, their strategic oil reserves are now at at levels they last had in 1983 just after they started building these reserves in 1982, and their economy is now nine times as large. These strategic reserves have gone from double the private system holdings, to only 75% of them. It is poublic mismanagement on an epic scale. The US Fed held its policy rate unchanged, even while noting they have high inflation that isn't easing and they have "supply shocks that have driven price increases" well above their 2% goal. But it was a split decision with three members voting to hike +25 bps. One of those was not Jerome Powell; he was in the nine who voted for the hold. Chairman Warsh's style is all over this statement because it was very short with little transparency. And Warsh's inflation fighting vow seems to be just talk. Across the Pacific, Singapore reported that their producer prices rose more than +30% in June from a year ago, maintaining the pace of increase for non-oil goods they have had since March. In South Korea, there has been real drama on their stock exchange with declines so sharp they had to temporarily suspend trading. It is all related to perceptions about tech valuations. Even though these companies are reporting sharp profit increases, investors worry that Chinese chipmakers are about to eat their lunch. At one point yesterday the share market there was down -13%, suddenly wiping out all the prior AI gain euphoria. But it ended down 'only' +6% to cap a five-day retreat of -17%. In Australia, June CPI inflation came in at 3.8%, and less than the 4.0% expected. It was kept up by the expiry of household energy support measures, but the falls in fuel costs more than offset that. More here. Will this deter the RBA from moving their policy rate on August 11? It may do, but inflation expectations remain very high. Some analysts now expect a hawkish hold. The lower CPI hit the AUD hard yesterday, presumably because FX markets no longer see higher interest rates imminently. The global credit risk environment has evolved heading into the second half of 2026 but continues to be driven by two main sources of short-term risk, according to Fitch Ratings; rising vulnerability to an AI-related market correction and persistent geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East. This is on top of a broader context of slowing US consumer momentum, high inflation risks stemming from the 2Q energy shock and structural public finance pressures limiting the ability to respond to risk events. Credit risk premiums will rise, says Fitch. Iran was annoyed Trump claimed talks were taking place when they weren't, so they reinforced their point. Then the US and Saudi Arabia attacked Iran-linked forces in Iraq. And the Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers off Yemen. This mess isn't going away. June air cargo demand rose in June, at a time of a relative lull in Middle East tensions. It was up +8.5% overall, up +9.6% for international trade. Asia/Pacific activity was up +9.5% from a year ago. There were larger increases in air cargo trade with North America. Meanwhile the China-to-Europe cargo train trade is surging, added to by very fast 15 day transit times for peak demand of air conditioning units, for example. Shipping via the Suez canal chokepoint will probably never recover for consumer goods. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday and with a small push higher after the Fed decision. The price of gold has risen to US$4075/oz, back up +US$45 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, back up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have risen sharply by +US$5.50 from yesterday at now just over US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$90.50/bbl and up +US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 8 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (6 dark with transponders off) and 16 entering for new loads (11 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday at just under 57.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,890 and up +0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news China's clear need for less oil has pushed its price sharply lower even as both the Gulf of Hormuz and the Red Sea remain effectively shut. As other sources raise their output, global demand is being undermined, essentially by this Chinese transition. But first up today, we should note the overnight dairy Pulse auction. Prices achieved were a bit more than -1% lower than the prior week's full auction in USD, but a bit less than that in NZD. In the US, the ADP weekly private payrolls monitoring recorded another easing, only +15,000 and extending the easing trend that has been in place since early May. The US merchandise trade deficit came in more than -US$100 bln in June, a second straight month of an unusually high negative level. Year-on-year, exports were up, but imports rose faster. Meanwhile both their retail (+3.1%) and wholesale inventories (+4.1%) rose in June, reflecting the stockpiling trend that has been in place for a while now. The expected improvement in the Richmond Fed factory survey didn't eventuate in July from June, but it remains modestly positive. New order flows edged lower while price and cost levels remained elevated. But there was a solid improvement in the Dallas Fed services sector recorded in their July survey. Nationally, the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey in the US took a step lower in July. This extends its falling trajectory that started in early 2025. The auction for the US Treasury 7yr Note was well supported earlier today but again, investors are getting higher yields for the elevated risk they perceive. This latest one delivered a median yield of 4.41% (high of 4.47%) compared to 4.20% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. In Japan, a major 7.1 earthquake in the south has caused widespread damage and deaths. And Japan's parliament has approved a plan to create a "second capital" capable of keeping the country running if disaster strikes Tokyo. It is likely to be in Osaka. Malaysia said producer prices there were +9.2% higher in June than a year ago. This was an unexpected jump from the anticipated +7.7% which was similar to the May rise. Staying in the region, Singapore reported its birth rate for 2025 and for the first time since its independence, it has fallen below +30,000 in a year. It, like many places, is on a steep trajectory of lower fertility. Industrial production in India rose +7.3% in June from a year ago, more than expected and the sharpest pace of expansion in nearly two years. It seems to be bouncing back from the initial shocks from the Middle East conflict. Later today, we will be getting the June CPI result from Australia and a no-change 4.0% rate is anticipated. But yesterday Governor Michelle Bullock was out speaking and affirming that they are worried that these high levels are embedding, so their 1-3% target range is not likely in the medium term. Some are wondering if this was a signal that an unexpected hike is about to be delivered next week. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, down -5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4030/oz, down -US$48 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$57/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen another -US$3.50 from yesterday at now just over US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl and down -US$5. Hormuz transits are still basically halted. There have been no crude tankers and only 3 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and three entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is even less active than the prior day. The Kiwi dollar is up +20 bps from yesterday at just under 57.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +40 bps at 83 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,568 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just on +/-1.7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news Iran is claiming control of the Strait of Hormuz as the US backs away, unable to exert the pressure it thought it could. The pause in fighting there has calmed markets significantly even if few ships are actually transiting. Elsewhere, the US durable goods order report for June was a strong one, up +8.9% from the same month a year ago, but only up +0.3% from May, so most of the gain was in prior months and the June rise was much less than the expected +2.5%. Capital goods were up +4.1% from a year ago, but excluding defense and aircraft, they were up a good +14%. The Dallas Fed regional factory survey was positive too, even if only marginally. That completes seven consecutive months of only marginal changes, some up, some down. Price and wage pressures remained markedly elevated, they said. There were two large US Treasury bond auctions overnight, both well supported. But both saw sharpish rises in yields from the prior equivalent events a month ago. The two year median yield rose +13 bps, and the five year yield rose +21 bps on the same basis. In Canada, their central bank surveys market participants quarterly and these professionals were less upbeat than at the previous survey. They foresaw no policy rate changes in 2026, but rises in the next two years. They also foresee a 25% chance of recession, although more likely growth in the 1-2% range. This is lower than in the prior survey. Trump's trade tensions are the main risk they see. Singapore has surprised markets with another tightening move, its second consecutive such shift. Singapore regulates its monetary policy via its exchange rate (the S$NEER). It is raising its exchange rate to dampen inflationary pressures. The June CPI inflation rate there rose to 1.9%, its highest since August 2024. Singapore's industrial production growth came in less than expected in June, up +7.2% from a year ago when a +9% rise was expected, down from the almost +18% in May. China reported strong industrial profit growth in June, up +15% from the same month a year ago although this was less than the claimed +18% growth rate for the first half of 2026. They say their factory sector profits rose more than 20% on the year-to-date basis, but companies producing electricity saw theirs fall more than -4%. Local listed companies did well, but foreign companies hardly made any gains. Local private companies came in in-between. Expectations are rising that the current CCP summit in Beijing will deliver new stimulus programs. The Indonesian central bank chief has been pushed out with two years left on his term. The Indonesian government wasn't happy with the standard approach of the experienced governor, and wanted the central bank to support it's all-out drive for economic growth rather than inflation control. It was a sudden change, but one preceded by the President appointing a family member as a deputy governor earlier in the year (remember Turkey?). Indonesia has been suffering a weak currency due to the political interference. In Europe, Spain, France and Italy are all battling out-of-control wildfires. Everywhere is battling intense heat. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.65%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4078/oz, up +US$26 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$58.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices have fallen sharply and by US$8 from yesterday at now just over US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89.50/bbl and down -US$9. Hormuz transits are still basically halted There have been 3 crude tankers and only 2 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and two entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is only marginally more active. The IEA has been reviewing why oil markets have proven more resilient through the current crisis than some had feared and they point out that oil output in countries not directly affected by the Persian Gulf troubles has risen notably and most countries are permitting export flows. They also point o the major release of strategic reserves to cushion the shocks, with 290 mln barrels released so far with more than 1 bln still in reserve. But they note that markets for refined products are considerably tighter than for crude oil. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just on 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82.6 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,917 and up +0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that after more bellicose threats, Trump has backed off hitting Iran as he had signaled, another TACO twist. The region isn't quiet, but the threatened escalation by the US hasn't happened, not yet anyway. The oil price hasn't really eased back yet on this lull and is holding most of last week run-up towards US$100/bbl again. Trumps policy twerking has everyone unnerved. Away from that and looking ahead locally, this week will feature the big data dump of the June quarter RBNZ series. We will especially be watching household deposit growth, which stalled in May. In Australia, it will be all about Wednesday's CPI release (expect a small rise to 4.1%) and Friday's PPI (expect a rise to 3.5%). In the US, the spotlight will be on the Thursday Fed meeting. Analysts expect no-change at 3.75% even though CPI inflation was at 3.5% for June and rising, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. Even their PCE inflation was running at 4.1% for May. We will get their June update on Friday. In the meantime, financial markets are pricing in more of a chance of a hike - if not at this meeting then two by the end of the year. There will be a lot of other US data out this week, including a Q2 GDP update, and the Conference Board's sentiment survey. The week will also feature some Big Tech profit results. In Japan, all eyes will be on Friday's central bank decision, especially on how they intend to respond to their currency problems. Not no change from their 1% rate is anticipated. In China, it will be all about a big set-piece Communist Party meeting. There will be a lot of interest to see if big new stimulus is announced there. Their PMI's may signal how urgent that is. Over the weekend in Japan, CPI inflation stayed low in June even if it did rose to a six month high. It came in at 1.7% in June from 1.5% in May, its highest since December. The pickup was largely driven by a slower decline in electricity and fuel prices as government energy subsidies were scaled back. Japan's private sector expanded to a five-month high in July via a sharp rise in manufacturing production and an improvement in their factory PMI which was driven mainly by the sharpest increase in manufacturing orders for five years. The July PMIs for India came in notably lower than for June as private sector growth receded and inflation pressure, especially for fuel, intensified. This is putting them in a tough spot with spreading social unrest. Their factory PMI dipped only marginally but their services PMI registered a notable easing. In the US the first of the July PMIs shows that business activity growth rose modestly but to an eight-month high in July although that isn't an especially high benchmark. However selling prices rose sharply and at their fastest rate for nearly four years. Input cost inflation was at a 14 month high. Their factory sector expansion was little-changed however from June with new orders little-changed. It was their services sector that expanded more, albeit modestly US new home sales were little-changed in June but maintained the modest level they have had all year. That makes then -5.6% lower than year-ago levels. Canadian producer price growth fell back slightly in June from May but are still +12.4% higher than year-ago levels. Raw material input costs by manufacturers were up more than +20% from a year go. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank trimmed -25 bps from its key policy rate, taking it to 14.0%. A year ago, this rate was 21%. They have CPI inflation officially at 6.0%, although this seems an unlikely level. In the EU, eurozone business activity has risen for first time in four months in July amid renewed expansion of new orders. Their factory PMI inched up, and their services PMI inched up too. But to be fair, these higher levels are not significant and the expansion is minor compared to other global regions. But at least it isn't a contraction. The German versions of these PMIs was generally better than the overall set. German consumer sentiment didn't budge however. In Europe, their ugly heat and worrying fire season isn't easing. In fact a new wave of extreme heat is forecast over the next few weeks. It is part of an accelerating trend that will likely extinguish European glaciers far faster than anticipated just ten years ago. Australia also got better new factory order levels in July, the first increase in new business in five months. Improved demand conditions underpinned a stronger expansion in output, led to upgraded recruitment activity and enabled greater protection of profit margins. This data confirms the good labour market data released yesterday. But overall Australian growth is likely to remain sluggish. Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra house prices actually fell in the June quarter, an unusual but necessary shift to make their housing more affordable. It takes serious political bravery to turn a frothy market where gains just fell from the sky. Bitumen prices are surging again on the closed Hormuz and Red Sea shipping lanes. They are back to levels that we had in mid-March and which lasted to mid-June. Interestingly, urea prices are staying low as are potash prices (minor rises) but sulphur prices never fell after the March spike. Naphtha (used for plastics manufacturing) is rising sharply again. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.68%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +13 bps for the week. The price of gold has firmed to US$4052/oz, virtually unchanged from Saturday up +US$49 for the week. Silver is now just on US$58/oz, down -50 USc from Saturday, up +US$2 for the week. Oil prices have risen back +US$1.50 from Saturday at now just over US$90.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$98.50/bbl and up +US$2. A week ago these prices were US$82 and US$88/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have almost halted entirely There have been no crude tankers and only 1 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) and none entering for new loads (0 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). Still almost 800 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just on 57.9 USc but down -50 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just over 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.8 which is unchanged from this time Saturday but down -50 bps from a week ago. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,673 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday and up +1.0% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just on +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news tankers in the Red Sea have been hit by missiles fired from Yemen. This is unnerving global markets today, and oil prices have jumped everywhere. Bond yields are surging, pushing up mortgage rates and weighing on equity valuations, especially for tech firms. But first in the US, there were 192,000 initial jobless claims last week, a notable drop and far lower than seasonal factors would have accounted for and lower than expected. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, also lower than a year ago but actually an increase from a week ago as claimants are staying on benefits longer even if it is now much harder to get initially qualified. The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index came in slightly below trend, but enough to suggest the US economic expansion was still in place in June. But if the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracking is to be believed, that expansion is at a modest level. Consensus forecasts are being trimmed too. The US Treasury 10 year TIPS yield of inflation-protected bonds jumped about +30 bps today and back to the highs we last saw in the pandemic and prior to that in the GFC. Canadian retail sales expanded in June, extending their positive track to six consecutive months. This was for both value and volume terms, to be +5.9% higher than year ago levels. Canadian CPI is running at 2.8%. Across the Pacific, China's foreign direct investment rose +US$11.1 bln in June, better than expected and better than the -US$7.6 bln fall in the same month in 2025. Meanwhile, China's consumer trade-in subsidy program is losing momentum as appliance and car demand weakens. South Korea said its economic activity expanded an impressive +3.7% in Q2-2026, almost the same as the +3.8% in Q1. This is their fastest expansion since Q4-2021, and came in above market estimates of +3.5%. Strong exports were a key factor in this result. Singapore's June CPI came in at +1.9% in June and although that was its highest since August 2024 it was less than the 2% expected. And that was because there was no change from May. In India, we should keep an eye on youth protests, because they are spready and gaining surprisingly wide support. In Europe and as expected by many, the ECB left its key interest rates unchanged at its July meeting overnight, following the +25 bp hike in June. Since then, policymakers have struck a more cautious tone, adopting a "wait-and-see" approach as softer inflation, wage growth, economic activity, and inflation expectations have reduced the urgency for another move. But that may have changed today with the unexpectedly large spike in oil prices. But who knows how fast that may change again? Markets anticipate another ECB rate hike in September. Staying in the EU, consumer sentiment improved in July. That is to say it got less negative. And in a decision likely to intensify trans-Atlantic trade tensions, European Union regulators overnight hit Google with a €890 mln fine for illegally undercutting competition through its dominance in search. Google will not be hurt by this directly in the short term because it reported almost +US$41 bln in profits in Q2-2026 alone. If it is hurt, it will be from their heavy cash burn for its AI buildout. The Australian labour market grew surprisingly strongly in June, adding +76,300 new jobs, far better than the +15,000 expected. Their jobless rate was stable at +4.4%. More than half the new jobs were in NSW, with good gains also in Queensland and Western Australia. But Victoria shed jobs in the month. This strength will add spine to the RBA's fight against rising inflation (4.0%) because they will be now less worried about a weak economy The RBA next meets on August 11, 2026 - 17 days away. Global container freight rates fell -4% last week to be +74% higher than year ago levels. Outbound rates from China were the basis of the pullback from the prior week. Bulk cargo rates were down -8% for the week, and these are now a third higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.70%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday and its highest since January 2025.  Wall Street is -1.4% lower today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq down -2.5%.  The price of gold has fallen to US$4042/oz, down -US$98 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$6 higher from yesterday at just on US$93/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$101.50/bbl and up +US$7. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been no crude tankers and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -40 bps lower from yesterday at just over 57.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -40 bps at 82.8 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at just over 50.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 61.6 which is down -40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,762 and down -2.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been extreme at just on +/-7%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news we may be facing a renewed oil supply shortage and this time reserves are at unusually low levels. The combined impacts of extended closures in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea are mounting, and just as we thought the May-June stresses had faded. US mortgage applications rose slightly last week and that was despite an unexpected fall in refinance activity. But since mid-June this US housing market indicator has essentially been flat. And US mortgage rates are now at an 11 month high. US crude oil stocks rose unexpectedly last week when another fall was anticipated. Yes, it was minor, but still. Maybe it indicates that local production is rising faster than some assume. Or surging imports from Canada or Venezuela? Or maybe that demand is lackluster. Or all three. US Strategic Reserve levels fell again and to their lowest level since 1983. Today's US Treasury 20yr bond auction saw its yield surge through 5%, ending with a median yield of 5.12% and a high of 5.16%. That is up sharply from the prior equivalent event a month ago of 4.88%. And demand was lower too (-4%). It is quite the rate move. Not to be outdone, the overnight German 20 year bund auction rose to 3.60%, up from 3.38% a month ago. Across the Pacific, Japanese exports rose faster than expected in June, up more than +19% from a year earlier. The weak yen helped as did strong demand for electronics and other data center equipment. The June export level was their second highest on record, just a whisker off the March record. At the same time their imports surged as well, up +25% and also more than expected to a new record high, just eclipsing the October 2022 level. Oil prices were high but oil import volumes retreated. The net result was a modest but stable trade deficit in June (from May), but slightly worse than the small trade surplus in June a year ago. None of this helped the yen however because it fell to a 40 year low against the USD. Against the NZD it has only been this low in 2024 and 2007. In case anyone is still confused, or unaware, the Chinese regulator, China Securities Regulatory Commission, has been organising the SOE home team to bolster the Chinese stock markets recently, after they showed some negative indications. This has driven some good rises, but also a creeping state ownership in many listed Chinese companies. The Shanghai Composite closed up +1.8% yesterday, the Shenzhen Component was up +4.8%, while the ChiNext was up +7.1% and the STAR Market index jumped 8.8%. This is not to claim other governments don't manipulate markets; they do (Trump, Japan, etc.). But the Chinese moves don't seem sustainable unless the reasons for the dour conditions that prompted the artificial buying are resolved. In other economies, regulators would get punished by investors if issues aren't resolved. In China it is the other way around. The Philippine-China dispute about who controls the sea off the Philippine coast is taking an ugly turn with China posting racist trope video targeting Filipino's. It is unnecessary and grubby diplomacy. But 'going low' isn't something China invented. Surprising most observers, the Indonesian central bank did not raise its policy rate overnight following its June out-of-cycle shift higher. It judged that that earlier move was all that is needed at this time to defend the rupiah. In Australia, the latest update of the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, suggests growth there is stalling. While the latest growth pulse is still not overly weak it is broadly consistent with stalling activity through the middle of the year. Later today the June labour market report will be released in Australia. It is expected to show tame jobs growth. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.66%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and matching its recent mid-May highs.  The price of gold has risen to US$4140/oz, up +US$71 from yesterday. Silver is now just on US$60/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are another +US$2.50 higher from yesterday at just under US$87/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$94/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 2 crude tankers and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 5 entering for new loads (3 dark). Three of these outbound ships were hit by missiles. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen although a small handful of ships are still getting through (less than 20 each way). More than 700 vessels are waiting for things to calm down. The Kiwi dollar is another -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -10 bps at 83.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just under 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,141 and down -0.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at just over +/-0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news many countries are awaiting news of a new barrage of US tariffs, although the fear level is nowhere near as high this time as this weapon has proven relatively limp in the past, and mainly hurts US consumers. First today, the overnight dairy auction surprised somewhat with an end to the recent weakness, rising +1.5% in USD terms although down almost -1.0% in NZD terms on the firmer NZD. Perhaps surprisingly, milk fats did quite well, other than cheddar (-6.5%). Powders were all up. Some say that northern hemisphere heatwaves have buyers nervous that this will soon weigh on production levels there, so stocks are being built in case. In the US, the slower hiring trend that started in early May continued last week with the ADP weekly tracking reporting its lowest level since March, just after this weekly tracking series started. US timber prices are rising and quite sharply recently. That is because of forest fires in the US Pacific Northwest states, and in British Columbia, the main exporting Canadian province to the US. Trump's new tariffs on Canada are making things worse for US housebuilders. The early outcomes for the Q2-2026 earnings reporting season (with 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 88% of these companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive revenue surprise. The US summer holiday season is starting to peak now and will stay like this until early August. The season overall ends on their Labor Day on September 7. We note this because commercial activity is different during this period and financial market activity is lighter than usual. The same is true for Canada of course. But US border states are doing it tough because Canadians are choosing to avoid the US for their holidays as the insults and tariff actions from Trump's Washington swamp stay aggressive. In China, new stimulus is being rolled out. Its gigantic "Six Networks" buildout is getting a major boost as part of more infrastructure spending. Those six are: water networks (canals), power grids, data centers, 6G development, undergrounding pipelines, and supply-chain efficiency upgrades. But they are also trying to get their service sector re-energised as well with targeted 'investments'. Meanwhile, China is re-thinking its tax rebates that are driving its export competitiveness. It needs those funds for its domestic projects, and it doesn't need the international alarm their mercantalist export policies are creating. In Europe, the ECB's Q2 lending survey has found banks have tightened credit standards moderately for firms on higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Corporate loan demand rose while demand for housing loans and consumer debt decreased. Interestingly, companies seeking green loans were found to have much better financial profiles. Germany's ZEW sentiment survey recovered notably in July after four months on weakness, and this is mirrored in their wider survey for the EU. The price of copper is rising again, getting near the record highs it posted at the start of the Iran-US conflict. Driving some of this are unusually low copper stocks in China. Meanwhile the FAO is reporting that hunger in the world fell again in 2025 and for a third consecutive year. Around 645 million people, or 7.8% of the world's population, experienced hunger last year, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022 The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and approaching its recent mid-May highs.  The price of gold has risen to US$4069/oz, up +US$65 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$92/bbl and up +US$3. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 11 entering for new loads (3 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.2 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,421 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Hamilton Confidential is a podcast about Worldclear Ltd, based on leaked documents from the New Zealand financial services provider. Obtained by Interest.co.nz and shared with the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project, Lithuania's 15min.lt, the Belarusian Investigative Center, and Sweden's Expressen, the leak shows Worldclear processing money transfers for a colorful global clientele over a five year period. With a staff of no more than a dozen people, one internal document claims Worldclear had "grown to process about $500 million in payment values per year." Worldclear was found by Department of Internal Affairs supervisors to have failed to comply with several anti-money laundering requirements. And two minority Worldclear shareholders had convictions for financial crimes overseas, with one having an Interpol red notice out in his name for an unserved jail sentence in Panama for money laundering. There is no evidence that Worldclear or its staff knowingly facilitated financial crimes. David Hillary, Worldclear's founder and managing director, denied any wrongdoing by himself or the firm, saying neither had ever; “knowingly or recklessly facilitated criminal offending, acted for the purpose of assisting any person to commit an offence, or designed or operated services for the purpose of concealing the source, destination, or beneficial connection of illicit funds.” Here are the first four episodes in the series. Episode 1, What was Worldclear and what did it do? An overview of what Worldclear was, how it operated, who its customers and owners were, and why the story matters for New Zealand. Episode 2, Richard Whitham; from Hamilton to Changi prison. Featuring an interview with Richard Whitham, who worked for Worldclear as a banking relationships establishment project officer, and ended up spending more than two years in Changi prison. Whitham was the key source of the leak. Episode 3; International customers; Michael Wilson, Guenther Klar & Odebrecht Overseas Ltd. Featuring a customer wanted by the FBI who chartered a private jet and fled Canada for Vietnam, along with his wife, mother, and three dogs. A British citizen who was later convicted in Denmark of defrauding Danish tax authorities. And a Bahamas company whose Brazilian parent company had pleaded guilty in the US to involvement in a multi-billion dollar bribery scandal. Episode 4; The Belarus & Lithuanian connection. A discussion with Belarusian and Lithuanian journalists who worked on the investigation, looking at why the Worldclear leak is of interest in their countries, and what it's like to be a Belarusian investigative journalist working from exile. Podcast hosts Gareth Vaughan and Emanuel Stoakes, producer Erica Wood. Separate text stories published as part of the investigation can be found here. Interest.co.nz is grateful for funding support from the Brian Gaynor Business Journalism Initiative and the readers who Support us, in helping bring this project to fruition. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Yemeni Houthis have announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia but effectively closing the Red Sea. Elsewhere new mediation efforts are underway again. In the US, the Conference Board's leading indicator tracking turned negative in June. The shift down isn't a lot because it wasn't very positive in earlier months. But it is consistent with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking showing an exhaustion of the pace of the US expansion. Off balance sheet debt at the big US tech giants is exploding, making investment assessments harder to make. It is now an estimated US$1.65 tln as artificial intelligence investments ballooned, a Nikkei study shows, and now exceeds actual reported debt. The problem is particularly acute at Meta. These companies are about to report Q2-2026 results and these debt levels are sure to become an issue. The main way these debt obligations stay off balance sheets is via "innovative" lease transactions centered around timing issues. And US Big Tech valuations are also under threat from Chinese alternatives, especially the relatively new Moonshot K3 version. It is hard not to to get a sense that financial markets are facing a revaluation crisis in the tech sector. In Canada, their CPI inflation rate came in at 2.8% in June, with a core rate of 2.1%. Both these measures were lower than in May and slightly lower than expected. The Malaysian export boom is carrying on (+45% from June a year ago), especially for electronics (+57%) and petroleum (+56%), and especially to the US (+109%). But they needed all of that because imports surged sharply too, up 44% from a year ago. The People’s Bank of China kept its key lending rates at record lows for a 14th straight month in July, as widely expected. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), the benchmark for most corporate and household borrowing, was held at 3.0%, while the five-year LPR, a reference rate for mortgages, remained at 3.5%. However, rate cut expectations are rising there as their domestic economy slows. German producer prices were up a modest +1.8% in June from a year ago, similar to the prior two months. But this new level is in contrast to the PPI deflation they had reported for the earlier twelve consecutive months. A number of major countries are struggling to contain the devaluation of their currencies against the US dollar. Japan is seeing its currency at its weakest level since 1996. India is seeing levels back to near the record lows they had in mid-May. And Indonesia is battling record low levels as well. All these are major economies and all are trying to work what level of higher interest rate differential is needed to stabilise their situation. This is just part of a rising interest rate background, not helped by the prospect of higher US interest rates from their inability to tackle inflation effectively. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.60%, up +4 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4003/oz, down -US$14 from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$56.50/oz, up +50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from yesterday at just under US$83/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads (8 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is marginally firmer from yesterday at just under 58.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 51.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$65,541 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day. Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however. In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change. But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises. In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency. There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications. We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks. Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation. Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit. Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well. In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report. But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months. Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month’s rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party. Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows. Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat. The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.) In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week. Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic isl Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the US-Iran conflict seems to be intensifying. Market responses don't reflect that yet however. In the US, initial jobless claims rose last week to 245,000 but this was less of a rise than seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.85 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. US retail sales were up a healthy +8.4% in June from a year ago but virtually unchanged from May. If you take out cars and petrol, then the rise is +5.7% from a year ago, and a fall from May. Still good, but boosted by their claimed +3.5% inflation. Online sales of electronics goods were particularly strong, suggesting buyers were looking to get ahead of tariff and trade impacts. Meanwhile, new order levels reported in the Philly Fed's July factory survey were impressive. But this came with a fall-away in sentiment about the future, and with unusually high input cost inflation. More signs of stockpiling behaviour. And US petrol prices are rising again. US homebuilder sentiment fell in July in the NAHB survey. Not by a lot, but keeping it in the depressed state this sector has been in since the pandemic. They have an input cost problem too. The other side of this industry is in lackluster conditions too. Pending home sales fell in June from May, and came in slightly lower than year-ago levels. That was their biggest retreat in six months. The weakness was broad based across the whole country. In Canada, their June housing starts were -13% lower than year-ago levels. These were weak in Vancouver with a big fall-off in multiunit construction, but quite strong in Toronto. In Korea, their central bank raised its policy rate yesterday, raising it from 2.5% to 2.75%. This was as expected however. It was their first rise in more than three years as it grapples with inflationary pressure at least partially stemming from a faster economic expansion. Their previous change was a cut of -25 bps in May 2025. In Australia, the respected Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations has come in with a 4.7% July result after it's 5.5% in June after topping out at 5.9% in April. Australia's official inflation was 4.0% in May after topping out at 4.2% in April. Their June CPI is due to be released on Wednesday, July 29. Global container freight rates stayed very high last week even though they dipped -2% from the prior week. That leaves them +75% higher than year-ago levels. Meanwhile bulk freight rates were little-changed over the past week to be +55% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday.  Wall Street has started today with the S&P500 down -0.7% and the Nasdaq down -1.6%.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3984/oz, down -US$78 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$55.50/oz, down -US$2 from yesterday. Oil prices are little-changed from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still just under US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 8 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 18 entering for new loads (5 dark) and almost all Iran-linked. More ships are exiting the Red Sea now, but much fewer want to enter. This rush out may be because Iran has told the Houthis to close the waterway if the US strikes Iran's civilian electricity network. The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.4 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just over 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.2 which is down -20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,111 and down -1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news there is a growing sense that the world is close to running on empty the longer the US-Iran flareup carries on. But markets are ignoring that risk. In the US producer prices fell -0.3% in June from May, marking the first decline since August 2025 and an unexpected dip. A sharp decline in energy prices is getting the credit and the fact that energy risks are still around is being ignored. From a year ago US PPI was up +5.5%. Without that, the core index rose +0.2%, to be +4.7% higher than a year ago. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped 10 points to +15.6 in July 2026, signaling a significant pickup in business activity across New York State. Price increases remained elevated and supply availability continued to worsen, they said. The region is in a stockpiling mode, still expecting more cost impacts from tariffs. (Although the New York Fed boss indicated they are looking through these likely impacts. However, not every Fed member is so sanguine.) The July Fed Beige Book reported "modest to moderate" activity, with prices rising, with greater price sensitivity among consumers. US crude stocks fell again although not be as much as was expected this week. Their strategic reserves show not letup in their draining track. Across the northern border, the Bank of Canada left the target for its overnight rate unchanged at 2.25% for a sixth consecutive decision in July 2026, and as expected. But they are seeing an improved economic outlook, however. Across the Pacific and after impressing in April, Japanese machinery orders took an outsized tumble in May. down -12.4% from April and far worse than market forecasts for a -4.2% decline. It seems a broad-based weakness in business investment is setting in. Orders from manufacturers dropped -14.9% (vs 5.1% in April), while non-manufacturing orders fell -9.3% (vs 6.7%). Chinese house prices are still falling but at a slower pace now as background support measures and market cleanup activity is putting a floor under this weakness. China’s new home prices across 70 cities fell -3.3% in June from a year ago, the mildest contraction since February. Shanghai was a standout with a +3.1% rise on that same basis, the only one with a measurable gain. Meanwhile, pre-owned home sales prices fell almost -6% on the same basis, and resale prices in Shanghai were negative too. Retail sales in China were up +1.0% in June from a year ago, restrained in large part by shrinking retail sales of cars. Without that, sales would have been up +3.0%, just enough to be higher than their CPI inflation. Industrial production in China rose +5.3% in June, its fastest pace in three months. Meanwhile, electricity production, which some think is a more realistic indicator of industrial activity because it is less susceptible to regional manipulation, rose +2.0% in June from the same month a year ago. Through all of this, China said its economic activity was up +4.3% in June from Q2-2025. This was slower than the +5.0% in Q1-2026 and lower than the anticipated +4.5% that analysts had forecast. And it is its slowest since Q4-2022, and prior to that pandemic interruption, the slowest since 1990. The uneven results posted today won't reassure Beijing. Markets are thinking they will announce new stimulus soon. China’s new bank lending came in at ¥1.61 tln in June, much more than the very weak ¥520 bln in May, but well below both year-ago levels and the expected ¥2 tln rise. Bank debt growth typically accelerates in June as banks step up lending activity to meet their quarterly targets, but loan demand remains subdued in 2026. This is adding to expectations of new stimulus measures from Beijing. Yesterday's news of the arrival of bird flu in New Zealand likely shows that Australia's monitoring is likely very inadequate. They say Australia has 14 confirmed detections of H5 bird flu in wild birds. There are eight confirmed in Western Australia, five in South Australia and one in New South Wales. These are probably just the tip of the iceberg. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, down -3 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has firmed slightly to US$4061/oz, little-changed from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$79/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have risen overnight There have been just 3 crude tankers and 15 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (9 dark) and most Iran-linked. More ships are crossing the Red Sea as well. The Kiwi dollar is up +40 bps from yesterday at just under 58.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.5 AUc. Against the euro we are also up +20 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.4 which is up +40 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,950 and up +0.7% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East. But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full event. Both butter and SMP dipped -0.4%, but the exception was WMP which rose +0.3%. The recently higher NZD has made those changes less in local currency, reinforcing the Fonterra payout reduction. Elsewhere, the US released its June CPI result with a somewhat surprising dip with it falling to 3.5% after May's three year high 4.2%. Markets had expected a lesser dip to 3.8%. The biggest retreat was the -9.7% fall in petrol prices (although this monitoring only recorded a +6.8% fall). Inflation was on the mind of Fed speakers overnight, especially Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation saying he had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". But he had no details or plans on how he is to tackle inflation. He was presenting the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The Fed's target is inflation at 2% and it has been above that for 63 consecutive months now, so the credibility of achieving that target is not high. The ADP weekly private jobs monitoring fell again, now under +20,000 and the first time it has reported a gain that low since mid-March. It has been tracking lower since early May. The lower fuel costs shifted the needle in the NFIB sentiment survey for SMEs, resulting in a less-negative June result. But these same respondents cited inflation as their biggest threat, the highest since October 2024. Yesterday, big US banks reported strong earnings gains, helped by their role in the Big Tech IPOs and other tech fundraising. Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome. China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month. In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going. The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4059/oz, up +US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1.5o from yesterday at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 3 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and all of those tied to Iran (1 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). No-one was prepared to pay Trump's tolls, so Trump backed down (in a weird rambling announcement), less than 24 hours after announcing the levies. It is unknown if any are paying Iran's tolls. Plans to build pipelines to avoid the area are getting new momentum now. So Iran is shifting its focus to blockading the Red Sea at Yemen. The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is up +50 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,477 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that at the close of business today in New York, the Q2-2026 earnings season will kick off with major banks JP Morgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo leading the pack. They will be reporting into a market that is jittery over the rebounding crisis in the Middle East. Adding to the confusion, Trump said the US is imposing a 20% toll on all ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That will close all traffic except Iranian-linked vessels. Separately, yesterday tech stocks from New York to Shanghai all took a beating. Meanwhile, US Fed governor Waller spoke today, emphasising he is watching the inflation signals closely and warning that more rate hikes may be necessary. He warned about the impact of "tariffs, energy prices, and spillovers from demand for the AI buildout". But he is wary of recent history, acknowledging that this evolving situation has different risks and "we shouldn't fight the last war" on inflation. We are seeing a long-time dove turning hawkish on the need for action on inflation. That comes as the US federal government posted a much wider deficit than expected, boosted by tariff refunds. Over the past nine months, that deficit has swelled to -US$1.36 tln on track for another unsustainable record, only one Trump could engineer with his dodgy fiscal strategies. In India, CPI inflation rose to 4.4% in June, its highest since December 2024 and slightly more than expected. Food prices rose +5.3% with tomato prices up almost a third on this year-on-year basis. In China, their climate and weather authorities are warning that there is an elevated chance of more serious storms this year. They have just had their first major one, and they say more than six national emergency level storms are expected before the end of their summer. In Australia, we should probably note that the Xero CEO has sold all her own shares in the company, a somewhat startling signal. Meanwhile OPEC is also turning glum. Their July Monthly Oil Market Report lowered the 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 780,000 bpd, citing economic instability from the geopolitical conflict. They see reduced demand in major markets. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.61%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3994/oz, down -US$126/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$57.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$6 from yesterday at just on US$77/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$82/bbl. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 6 crude tankers (1) and 5 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (0 dark with transponders off) but only 5 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from yesterday at just under 57.6 USc. But against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.1 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,935 and down -3.4% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest however at just under +/- 1.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Hormuz Strait is effectively shut again with Iran's 'strategy' winning against the US 'firepower'. It is hard to think of any other politician trashing their advantage perceptions so completely. There will be long historical echoes from all this ineffective breast-beating. But elsewhere and locally, this week will bring updates to our migration and travel data, indicators of June retail activity, and early signals of June inflation. We will also get an look at business sentiment, and likely get the June REINZ update. In Australia, they will chime in with their June labour market updates, after updates for consumer and business sentiment. In the US, apart from Trump's wars, investors will turn their attention to the Q2 earnings season, and a steady stream on important economic data that includes their CPI, retail sales and consumer sentiment updates. Fed boss Warsh will be briefing Congress and that will be interesting too, especially about his views on 'reform'. Canada will be reviewing their central bank's policy rate this week, although no change from the 2.25% is anticipated In Japan, it will be about machinery orders and industrial production with eyes also firmly focused on their currency - which will also impact their fast-rising interest rates. In China, it will be a busy week of June economic data releases including for trade, and debt, and highlighted by their Q2-2026 GDP growth rate. Over the weekend, in the fiercely competitive Chinese car market, they reported 2.8 mln vehicle sales in June which was somewhat unexpected because a dip from May was anticipated. But it is a -3% dip from year-ago June sales levels. That pushes their twelve month sales to 33.8 mln units, up from 33.0 mln in the prior equivalent year. Car exports rose above 1 mln units in June, the first time that level has been achieved as it floods global markets. It is storm season in China again, and severe flooding has hit a number of regions, enough to concentrate minds in Beijing. Elsewhere, China has banned the export of helium. Actually, the re-export of helium because it gets most of it from Russia. The Middle East conflict has restricted supply from there, and tech users in Europe and Asia are now in a tough spot, as are medical users everywhere. China is conserving its Russian imports for its own tech industry Japan is reporting that their producer prices rose +7.1% in June from a year ago, accelerating from an upwardly revised +6.6% increase in May and above market expectations of a +6.8% gain. It is the fastest annual increase since March 2023. Higher energy prices following supply chain disruptions linked to the war in Iran are driving this, of course. And Japan’s finance minister said they want to steer their state pension funds to "substantially" increase investments in domestic assets. This brought a sharp immediate reaction in both their currency and bond markets, due to the expected size of the shift. The yen gained, or at least it halted its fall, and their bond yields fell sharply (see below). Elsewhere, in the US initial jobless claims rose by +224,500 and about what seasonal factors can account for. There are now 1.767 mln people on these benefits, less than year-ago levels. After the good May rebound, existing home sales in the US fell back to average levels, and to levels lower than a year ago. The median price is up only +1.8% from a year ago. That modest rise is less than income growth, so overall affordability is getting a chance to recover there. On Wall Street, South Korean computer chip maker SK Hynix has raised US$26.5 bln in its New York IPO, the largest ever listing by a foreign firm in the US. SK Hynix is a key supplier to AI chip giant Nvidia. In Canada, their payrolls rose a minor +18,200 in June, slightly better than the expected +10,000, and holding on to the +88,000 gain in May. The June gain was all about a strong rise in the private sector (+32,000) which consolidated the good May private sector rise (+56,000). But most of the net June gain was from part-time employment. These positive shifts in June may have something to do with hiring for the football World Cup events. Global container freight rates rose another +2% last week to be +74% higher than year-ago levels, mostly about outbound freight rates from China to the US where demand is still high. Bulk cargo freight rates pushed higher too. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, unchanged from this time Saturday but up +7 bps for the week. The price of gold has risen to US$4119/oz, up +US$19/oz from Saturday, but down -US$55 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from Saturday, down -US$2.50 from a week ago. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just onUS$76/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$68.50 and US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have dived sharply as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 12 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours and 5 of those tied to Iran (5 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, again mostly Iran-linked (3 dark). The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just over 57.6 USc, up +50 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 50.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 61.5 which is the same as this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,084 and up +0.6% from this time Saturday, up +2.9% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.6%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Tuesday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the oil price, and benchmark interest rates have both risen on the renewed tensions between the US and Iran. But first today, the IMF has updated its global economic forecasts, and they are virtually unchanged from the main release in April. They note the world economy’s stronger-than-expected resilience to the Iran war and robust AI-related investment. They see global growth coming in at +3.0% in 2026 with the 2027 growth outlook revised up to marginally 3.4% from 3.2%. Despite the slight upgrades, the IMF warned that risks remain tilted to the downside, and the full economic impact of elevated tensions, including renewed US-Iran strikes, are still to be revealed. Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027. Australia gets little mention in this update except to note that its 2026 growth is forecast to come in at +1.9% (down -0.1%) and 2027 at +1.7% (unchanged). New Zealand gets no mention at all. For the US it is +2.3% and +2.2% for the same two year, both unchanged. For China it is +4.6% and +4.1% (marginally higher). For Japan it is +0.6% and +0.7% (little-changed). Malaysia was noted as a positive mover where their economy is projected to grow at a rate of +4.7% in 2026, benefiting from data center activity and the upturn in the global technology cycle. US mortgage applications fell again last week, especially refinance applications. US crude oil stocksactually rose last week with a modest gain which ended a ten consecutive string of declines. But their strategic oil reserve continued to fall at the same fast pace. The modest US consumer debt expansion recorded to April shrank to nothing in May, an unexpected weakness, and a significant variation from the continued expansion expected. However a one month hesitation occurs occasionally so we will need to wait for the June release to know if this is a significant indicator. The big mover was a sharp fall in credit cards and other revolving debt, also quite unexpected. The minutes of the June Fed meeting were released today, revealing that most officials broadly agreed they would need to raise interest rates if inflation remained elevated this year due to the war in the Middle East, tariffs, or strong demand from the AI-driven investment boom. And that included new boss Kevin Warsh. In Japan, their official sentiment survey of professionals recovered in June after three prior months of downbeat views In Australia, rents are rising faster, especially house rents. The increase was both stronger than seasonal norms and relatively abrupt in some cities, pointing to a step-change in pricing behaviour rather than a gradual tightening in market conditions. In a now somewhat dated update due to the renewed Middle East hot conflict, the New York Fed's global supply chain pressure index eased back in June after its April and May spikes. (Of course, with today's resumption by the US of its bombing of Iran, this is likely to flare up again in July.) The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.56%, up +8 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has fallen to US$4067/oz, down -US$78/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58.50/oz, down -US$2.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday at just on US$73.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$78/bbl and up +US$4. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply in a rush to get out despite the risks and renewed uncertainties with 35 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (8 dark with transponders off) but only 16 entering for new loads (2 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,052 and down -3.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and because tomorrow is a public holiday in New Zealand, Matariki, we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Shutterstock Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news renewed Hormuz attacks are raising oil prices and interest rates today, not helped by a pullback in tech stocks. But first today, there was another dairy auction overnight, a full one with new season volumes returning. But this one came in sharply lower, down -4.9% on USD terms although only a -2.5% retreat in NZD terms. Among the results, there was a notable -4.4% fall for WMP, a -7.0% fall for SMP, a -5% fall for butter and a large -12.3% fall for cheddar cheese. A few of the minor categories gained. But these falls were larger than the futures market was pricing in, so you have to say they are 'larger than expected'. While the new lower levels aren't that special in a longer perspective, the speed of the falls is concerning and analysts will be re-assessing their payout forecasts. In the US, the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose in July to a better than expected level but it is still well below the average over the past year and below its long term norm. Meanwhile, American consumer inflation expectations rose when a small dip was anticipated. It is now at 3.7%, its highest since September 2023 and is rising even though expectations for lower petrol prices are included in these results. The weekly private jobs growth monitoring by ADP shows a smaller rise ;last week than they have recorded in the past 15 week, since mid-March in fact. And the trend has been down for seven straight weeks. This is consistent with the easing that the official non-farm payrolls report showed for June. The US Logistics Managers Index rose again in June and to its highest since March 2022, driven by three factors; anticipation of more tariff action from Trump, stockpiling to get ahead of inflation, and an expectation that the end of year retail season will be 'normal'. US exports weakened in May and imports rose in the same time in the broader trade result that includes both goods and services, delivering a sharp rise in their deficit and their highest in over a year. This result matched the recent report of merchandise trade but brings their services trade into the picture. Meanwhile Canada reported rising exports and stable imports to give them a larger trade surplus in May. China said its foreign exchange reserves dipped slightly in June from their unusually high May levels. Part of this was due to the retreat in the gold price. But their central bank continued its gold-buying streak for a 20th month, with reserves reaching 75.44 million troy ounces by June’s end, up from 74.96 million in May. China’s excavator sales are rebounding, up by more than a third in June from a year ago, driven by major projects. New data out yesterday paints a much improved picture for Japanese household spending in May as households started to get their mojo back. And don't overlook that this was in the middle of the Trump Gulf War uncertainties. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.54%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has slipped to US$4146/oz, down -US$13/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$61/oz, down -US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just under US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up sharply despite renewed uncertainties with 27 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) but only 18 entering for new loads (4 dark). Interestingly. All this comes as attacks on ships in transit become daily events, so the rise in oil prices isn't surprising. Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen again to even lower levels on added risks there too. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are also little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,063 and up +0.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just under +/- 1.3%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news that now the Hormiz situation is settling down somewhat with oil prices easing, the global economy seems to be responding with a better outlook. First today, the widely-watched US ISM services PMI came in at a good level for June even if slightly softer than for May. Price pressures eased slightly, new business stayed at good levels even if less than for May, but employment was stronger even if it is still the weakest component. This Overall services measure has been at or about this level for seven months now is a relatively settled state. It is much more in positive territory than the S&P Global services PMI for the US. The S&P Global services June PMI for Canada is negative after a fall from May's small (but rare) expansion. Business activity weakened as new orders fell for a second straight month, with firms citing high prices and geopolitical uncertainty as key factors weighing on domestic and foreign demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada's June quarter Business Outlook survey found similar views. Overall business sentiment has deteriorated after improving over the past three quarters. Sales outlooks have softened slightly, but firms’ export outlooks have improved. Fewer firms said trade uncertainty and hesitancy among US customers are constraining exports, and more firms reported strong demand for commodity exports. Most firms did not report binding capacity constraints or labour shortages. Meanwhile a companion consumer survey shows inflation expectations are now over 3% there and right at the top of its target range of 1-3%. Singapore reported its May retail sales data overnight and it wasn't positive. Of course, this was during the height of the Middle East uncertainties. In China, a private bank in Wuhan with US$19 bln in assets has collapsed and been taken over by regulators. While it isn't a large institution, others are saying it won't be an isolated event among regional banks. (For comparative reference, the US FDIC has dealt with two US banks in 2026 that have failed.) And according to research by a Japanese consultancy, Chinese banks and tech companies led the world in applications for financial technology patents over the last decade, surpassing the US in a field that supports a wide range of financial services from lending and asset management to cryptocurrencies. They examined fintech-related patent filings in 118 countries and regions in the 10 years through 2025, working with Tokyo-based research firm Patent Result. The total tally reached roughly 120,000, nearly triple the number in the preceding decade. Also for May, the EU posted its producer price data, showing a rising +5.7% level from a year ago and driven by higher energy costs. But they also released May retail sales data and perhaps surprisingly, these rose on a real basis, up a creditable +1.9% from a year ago on a price-adjusted basis. In Australia, the Melbourne Institute survey of inflation expectations eased back slightly to 5.5% after the March spike that was rose again in April. But it has eased from there, and slipped again in June. Wage expectations, by comparison, have remained unchanged for the past seven months. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has slipped to US$4158/oz, down -US$15/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, down -50 USc from yesterday. Oil prices are down -50 USc from yesterday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low on renewed uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (0 dark with transponders off) but 20 entering for new loads (5 dark). Interestingly, Red Sea activity near Yemen has fallen to similarly low levels on added risks there. The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 57 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -30 bps at 82 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,554 and up +1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news an OPEC decision overnight may bring lower fuel prices much sooner. But then, this will depend on the volume of Hormuz crossings. But first, this coming week locally will be dominated by the RBNZ's OCR review on Wednesday. Economists are divided on whether an inflation-fighting hike will come, and financial markets are pricing one in at 76%. The split voting at the May 27 review, where the external members all wanted a hike, but the majority internal members didn't, is just as likely to be repeated. ASB is saying that locally, easing oil prices have strengthened our economic outlook and reduced the risk of a prolonged inflation shock. Lower fuel costs and stronger than expected economic momentum have put the recovery back on a firmer footing. In Australia, the data out this week will be mainly about the Melbourne Institute's monthly inflation gauge, and about job ad changes. In the US, their data releases will focus on service sector activity and existing home sales as they, like Europe, start to battle excessively hot conditions. In Japan, the focus will be on defending the yen. They will also release June machine tool order data. China will release June CPI and PPI data this week. Over the weekend, China released their unofficial services PMI and it came in quite positive for June, similar to May. Growth rates for activity and new business remain strong. They recorded the strongest rise in employment since July 2024 and the fastest input cost inflation in over two years. Service sector firms there are optimistic about the immediate future. The overall result was better than the official China services PMI. In Japan, their services PMI returned to growth in June, but cost pressures intensified, but here business confidence remained subdued. Which is in contrast to their quite positive factory PMI. In South Korea we should probably note a very bumpy run recently by their stock market. It is dominated by major technology and semiconductor companies like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, so it is like the Nasdaq on steroids. This gives it unusual volatility, and that volatility has been on display in the past two weeks. This market hit a new record high on June 22 but has fallen -11% since. On Friday, it rose +5.8% however but even that still left it down -3% for the week. Over the past year, this equity market has risen a stunning +165% with most of it in 2026 and most of it tech-related. In Vietnam, they posted a high Q2-2026 growth rate of +8.4%, building on their +7.8% Q1-2026 rate. (How can they report so quickly?) But this latest result will disappoint them because they have set a 2026 target of +10% and that now looks unlikely to be achieved, derailed somewhat by the Middle East conflict, also by missing their infrastructure build-out targets. Inflation eased to 4.7% in June from May's 5.6%, moving closer to the government's 4.5% inflation target this year. The World Bank has now reclassified Vietnam as an upper-middle-income economy, effective July 1. The FAO global Food Price Index retreated for a second consecutive month in June, led down by falling cereals prices as harvests stay high, despite concerns in the US and Australia. Dairy prices eased slightly too, but meat prices stayed elevated. However it is vegetable oil prices that are keeping this index from falling faster. In the US, the latest update of the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking reveals a sudden turn from high optimism about economic expansion, to a dour outlook. It has been rare that this model has come in lower than 'consensus' forecasts. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.49%, unchanged from this time Saturday but a +12 bps rise from this time last week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4174/oz, unchanged from Saturday, up +US$100 from a week ago. Silver is now under US$62.50/oz, unchanged from Saturday too, up +US$3.50/oz for the week. Oil prices are little-changed but slightly firmer from Saturday at just under US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still at US$72/bbl. Hormuz transits picked up Friday but then on renewed uncertainties fell back again over the weekend with just 10 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 19 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 15 entering for new loads (1 dark). Large tankers which are exiting are now choosing to do so in Oman-controlled lanes. And we should probably note attacks on a ships in the Red Sea near Yemen over the weekend, adding another layer of uncertainty. OPEC met over the weekend, and raised output by +188,000 barrels/day. They have Middle East members who need maximum revenues to recover from the conflict. So we may end up awash in oil and sharply lower prices. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just over 57.1 USc, up +70 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.9 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +60 bps for the week. The bitcoin price starts today at US$62,563 and up +0.7% from this time Saturday, but up almost +4% from this time last week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/- 0.8%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of a surprisingly weak American jobs report for June. There is no World Cup bounce there. And economists are divided over whether Federal Reserve policymakers will be holding rates steady, lifting or lowering them over the next six months based on this latest data. The US economy added just +57,000 jobs in June, the weakest gain in four months and far below expectations of +110,000. Their labour force participation rate dropped sharply to 61.5%, its lowest since early 2021. But seasonal adjustment has a lot to do with these headline results and the actual payroll change isn't anywhere near as weak. However, when you broaden this view to everyone in employment, not just those on a company payroll, things don't look so good. There are now 162.7 mln people in employment in June, down -175,000 from May and down -1.2 mln from June a year ago. In fact, that employed civilian workforce level is their lowest since the end of 2024. US jobless claims rose last week, but only marginally and by about what seasonal factors would have accounted for. There are now 1.76 mln people on these benefits, pressed lower by much tighter entitlement standards, which is consistent with the employment drop. US factory orders fell -1.3% in May and were down -4.5% for durable goods orders. But this needs to be seen in the context of rises in the prior three months, and April was revised higher. From a year ago though, the value of these factory orders were up only +1.8% overall but down -4.3% for durable goods. Given producer price inflation has been high over this period (+6.5%), these are terrible results. And surprising given the factory PMI data, so we should be sceptical of them. But don't forget this data is from agencies with imposed partisan leadership that replaced professional leadership when the President didn't like their earlier data. Meanwhile US vehicle sales rose in June to an annualised rate of 16.5 mln, a rise from May and from June a year ago. So that demand may improve their factory order data for June. The US vehicle market is about half the size of the Chinese equivalent (which currently runs at a 31 mln annualised sales rate). We got all this data today because tomorrow they will be on holiday for their 250th Fourth of July celebrations. It is a milestone worth celebrating but the background economy will likely take the gloss of it for those negatively affected. In China, those huge vehicle sales numbers mask structural problems. Prices have been low to build volume, but few of these manufacturers are profitable. A dramatic shakeout is coming because sales volumes are falling now. And that is already having implications for their steel industry, among others. In Australia, their May exports fell -6.9% from April to be just +3.1% higher than a year ago. Their imports were +2.6% higher than April to be up +13.9% from a year ago. So their merchandise trade balance shrank to -AU$1.7 bln in May, their first deficit since January 2018. They also reported that after hitting AU$7.9 bln in February, their gold exports retreated to just AU$4.5 bln in May. Global container freight rates rose +9% last week to be +61% higher than year-ago levels. This is all about demand for outbound cargo space out of China. Bulk cargo rates fell -2.8% last week to be +72% higher than year-ago levels, although that low base will rise quickly in future weeks. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, unchanged from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen to US$4106/oz, up a net +US$36/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60.50/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago. Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$68.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over 84% of vessel movements are related to cargoes headed to China, Russia or are Iran-linked. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just over 56.9 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.8 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$61,635 and up +2.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the new US Fed boss says price risks have come down in recent weeks, and repeated his determination to bring inflation back to the 2% target. Interestingly, US benchmark interest rates rose after these comments which tells you something about how they feel about the prospects for lower Fed Funds rates and inflation control. Meanwhile, US mortgage applications were little-changed last week and the 30 year benchmark mortgage rate changed little too. Refi activity was softer. The June job cut data for the US came in at about half the level of May and much less than expected, although layoffs due top AI remained the top reason. Meanwhile, the ADP monthly jobs report came in softer than expected, even if it is still expanding. A rise of +113,000 was expected after the prior month's +124,000. But this marker came in at +98,000. We will get the US non-farm payrolls change data tomorrow and markets expect it to rise +110,000, and down from May's +172,000. Meanwhile the widely-watched ISM factory PMI came in little-changed and moderately positive for June. New orders grew but slower; new export orders fell. Input prices rose again but at a slower pace. Most of this report was quite similar to yesterday's S&P Global US factory PMI. There was another fall last week in US crude inventories although the least in six week, even as the reduction has now cumulated to ten consecutive seeks. US strategic crude reserves are now as low as they had in 1983. Petrol inventories fell as well last week. American petrol prices remain a+28 higher than before the start of the Gulf War. In its aggressive trade relations, the US has told Canada and Mexico it will not renew the existing USMCA trade pact, one Trump himself negotiated and claimed was one of the 'best deals ever'. In fact the US ended up a net loser. Last year, the US had a -US$46 bln trade deficit ⁠in goods with Canada and a -US$197 bln deficit with Mexico. Of course the US has trade surpluses in services with both which they ignore. The existing USMCA will run another six years if it isn't eventually renewed, Factories the world over are expanding, although more than others in some places. The global factory PMI is a positive 53. In Australia it is lagging at 51.5. In New Zealand our last BNZ-BusinessNZ factory PMI came in at 49.9. Locally we are not participating in this global expansion. In China, their manufacturing conditions as measured by the S&P Global/RatingDog factory PMI improved further in June, completing their strongest quarter since 2020. This result was better than the official version but not quite as good as many analysts had expected. Input price inflation slowed to a five-month low while employment rose at its quickest rate since August 2023. Japan's Tankan industrial sentiment indexes have reached their highest level since 2018 in June. They came in at a level that was better than expected for large manufacturers, but a bit more modestly improved for service sector companies. South Korea is becoming Taiwanese, at least as regards its export prowess. Korean exports were up +71% in May from a year ago, to a record US$102 bln for the month. (For reference Taiwan exported US$78.5 bln in May, up +52% from a year ago.) However, their June factory PMI shows their softest rise in new orders in 2026 so far which limited production growth. And price and supply pressures remained pronounced. In Australia, their May building consent data shows that the number of dwelling approved were +5.3% higher than year-ago levels. But they fell -1.1% from April. Private sector house consents rose +2.8%, to the highest level since September 2021. This is the fourth consecutive month with over 10,000 private sector houses approved. This are quite soft for multi-unit dwellings however. And their June real estate market shows more signs of topping out. The Cotality home value index – covering all of Australia – fell -0.4% in June, following a -0.3% decline in May and a -0.1% dip in April. Annual growth slowed to +7.3%. The quarterly decline is the most significant since the 2022-23 price correction. Corrections in Sydney and Melbourne are becoming more pronounced, led by material declines in 'top tier' segments with turnover also down sharply. Momentum is slowing elsewhere but price and turnover growth are still mostly positive. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.48%, up another +5 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4070/oz, up a net +US$44/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$60/oz, up +50 USc from a day ago. Oil prices are down another -US$1.50 from yesterday at just over US$68/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down to US$71.50/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 26 entering for new loads (4 dark). Most exiting vessels are still headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 82.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.7 which is up another +10 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,115 and up +3.1% from this time yesterday and recovering most of yesterday's fall. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news the Persian Gulf situation is settling into a chronic stalemate after the acute hot conflict. US allies in the region are confused, Qatar's role in negotiations is questioned as to whether it can actually do anything, and Iran and Oman are moving forward with their plans for 'fees' and 'management' of the waterway. The US is getting sidelined. One outcome seems clear however; Chinese EV's are dominating world car sales so demand for crude oil is likely to be much less in the future, and that will limit oil price pressures. But first today, there was another dairy Pulse auction overnight, bringing lower prices again. AMF fell -2.5% from last week's event, butter was down -0.5%, SMP was down a chunky -6.2% and WMP slipped -0.6%. These build on trends we have seen since mid-May and given the rise in global milk production by the main exporters (New Zealand included), it is a trend likely to continue for a while yet. In the US, labour market data for May about job openings was little-changed from April even if it still is near a two year high, which was slightly better than was expected. But the June PMI report for the important Chicago manufacturing hub was quite a bit weaker than for May and what was expected. But it is only back to February levels which isn't bad at all. It was a fall away in new orders that drove the easing. Meanwhile the Dallas Fed's regional services survey became positive - just - for the first time in five months. They reported that selling price pressures increased slightly, while input price and wage pressures grew at a faster pace. The Conference Board sentiment survey barely moved in June from May, which actually was a result that disappointed analysts because a more marked improvement was anticipated. And that was because respondents turned negative about job prospects, with almost a quarter of them unexpectedly saying jobs are 'hard to get', the highest level sine early 2021. And we should perhaps note that the deadly screwworm cattle disease is still spreading in Texas and New Mexico, spreading to other animals too. Even though the number of animals reported as having contracted the disease remains small, the risks to cattle herds in these states in very large. In Canada, the expectation that it was falling into recession has proven not to be the case. Canada’s GDP rebounded from a first-quarter contraction to record a +0.5% monthly gain in April making this their largest economic expansion in nine months. Their May estimate points to a further if minor + 0.1% growth. Across the Pacific in Japan, the yen slipped into the 162-per-US dollar range yesterday for the first time in 39 years,and extending a slide that has accelerated in the past few months. A two month intervention effort isn't working, raising fresh questions about what is driving the yen's renewed weakness. China's official PMIs posted some marginal improvements in June, actually very marginal but at least they are not contracting. Their factory PMI is expanding, just. New orders picked up slightly. And their services PMI is now not contracting. But it isn't expanding either. New orders in this version are still negative, but the overall index was bolstered by expectations for improvement and lower lead times. All other more direct elements are negative to some degree. We should note that the unofficial PMIs by S&P Global/RatingDog have tended to be more expansionary in 2026. These unofficial results will come later today (Wednesday) and Friday. German inflation came in at 2.3% in June, down from 2.6% in May, 2.9% in April, and softer than anticipated, mainly because energy prices retreated there. Back in the US, Rocket Lab has agreed to buy Iridium Communications, a pioneer in satellite telephones, in a broadening attempt to compete with Starlink. It combines their launch capabilities and satellite manufacturing with Iridium’s network in low-Earth orbit and valuable radio frequencies for satellite communication. Yesterday we reported a +6% rise in May air cargo activity. But today the May air passenger travel data was released showing a declined -2.2% from a year ago, down -3.1% for international travel. The main diver of the pullback was international travel through the Middle East (-28.8%). But it is also worth noting that domestic air travel in China fell (-6.2%) as well as in the US (-1.9%). The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.43%, up +6 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold has risen to US$4026/oz, up a net +US$4/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$59.50/oz, up +US$1.50 from a day ago. Oil prices are down -US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$69.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is unchanged at just on US$73/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent volatility & uncertainties with just 19 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and 23 entering for new loads (5 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels have been headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +30 bps from this time yesterday at just under 56.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 82.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +20 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.6 which is up another +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$58.325 and down -3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.0%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Tuesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of new truce agreements in the Middle East, at least as claimed by the US. Iran is conspicuously quiet that there is any agreement however. But at the year's half-way point, economic prospects are generally far from dire. In the US, the next regional Fed factory survey for June is out from the Dallas Fed. That shows little-change. Price pressures were mixed, as selling prices and wages rose faster while input cost pressures held steady. Looking ahead, manufacturers remained optimistic, especially as they are able to recover their cost increases. It is a sign inflation is being tolerated and embedding. Despite that, company bosses say inflation is their top concern. Across the Pacific retail sales in Japan rose +5.3% in May from a year ago, rising from an upwardly revised +2.8% rise in April and higher than the expected +3.2% gain. It was also their strongest growth since November 2023. The strength was broad-based and especially in new car sales. Not driving this increase was fuel costs because they actually fell in the month. In South Korea, a monumental public-private investment announcement. They have announced an "unprecedented" US$520 bln (NZ$920 bln) plan with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to expand chipmaking capacity in the country to stay competitive in the global artificial intelligence race. It will feature the construction of new four production facilities, or "fabs" - two by each of the chipmakers. The surge that started in March for Singapore's producer prices has only risen from there, coming in +26.8% higher than year-ago levels. This doesn't include fuel, but it does include chemicals (+29%) and machinery (+31%). Malaysia’s producer prices rose +7.8% in May from a year ago, accelerating from a 5.4% growth in the prior month and marking the third straight month of gain. It was also the fastest increase since June 2022, with producer-level cost pressures mounting amid persistent disruptions linked to the Middle East conflict. India's industrial production stayed at an expansion rate of +5.1% in May from a year ago, held back by their mining industry, and no doubt by energy conservation issues. But it is still a fast expansion and higher than the 4.8% rate in May 2025. EU economic sentiment ticked up in June from a low level, mainly because of an improvement in consumer sentiment. But it was not matched by business a similar improvement in business sentiment. Globally, the FAO has been reviewing the outlook for the rural economy. Among many observations, they see China's demand for beef rising sharply so that beef and sheep meat prices will be underpinned. For dairy products, they note that most of the global growth will come from India, but for internal cosumption. Only 7% of global production is expected to be exported, and 70% of that will be by just three countries - the EU, the US and New Zealand. Prices are expected to stay high for exported product. Overall, they see rising rural productivity, especially in advanced countries. And staying global, the latest data for air cargo demand has been released, for May, and that shows a +6% expansion, driven by an +8.0% rise in Asia Pacific international trade, and a +12.9% recovery in trade with North America The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has retreated to US$4022/oz, down a net -US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now under US$58/oz, down -US$1 from a day ago. Oil prices are up +US$2 from yesterday at just on US$71/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$73/bbl. (Interestingly, while these prices rose, Russian oil prices fell, now down to US$57/bbl ).Hormuz transits have stayed at their lower level after the recent flare up in fighting with just 14 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) but 28 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, almost 70% of the exiting vessels were headed to China. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +30 bps at 821 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is up +20 bps from this time yesterday. The bitcoin price starts today at US$60,319 and up +1.4% from this time yesterday Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/- 1.4%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news clashes in the Strait of Hormuz are unstitching the uneasy ceasefire and giving credence to sceptics who saw the 'truce deal' between the US and Iran as superficial and flawed. The US believes its own propaganda, thinking it is negotiating from strength, but no-one else does, least of all Iran. US allies in the region are starting to realise the US will throw them under the bus for its own ends. Tankers (6), bulk cargo vessels (6) and other ships (4) are exiting the region, but most tankers are are heading to China, or in the Russian shadow fleet. Those who need insurance are holding back. But first, this week will feature the usual monthly real estate update releases later in the week, including for building consents. Plus the big end-of-month data dump from the RBNZ. In Australia, the focus will be similar where we will be looking for early signs of housing market reactions from their new Budget settings. Elsewhere there will be important PMI updates from everywhere to give us indicators. In the US, their July 4 public holiday will happen on July 3 this year, so it will be a compressed week of labour market data there culminating in an early release of their June non-farm payrolls report when a +114,000 change is expected. In China, they say artificial intelligence is reshaping the global labour market not by triggering mass layoffs of existing workers but by causing employers to pull back on hirings for new, entry-level positions. China also reported industrial profits are recovering, up +21% in May from a year ago to ¥3.1 tln, and faster than the +18.8% rise for the first five months. The latest result reflects the ongoing AI investment boom and continued policy support for advanced industries despite lingering weakness in parts of the property-related sector. In the EU, an ECB survey revealed that median year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 3.5% in May, the lowest level in three months, down from 4.0% in each of the previous two months which were the highest readings since 2023. Longer-term inflation expectations were steady, at 2.9% for three years ahead. Consumers also expect house prices to rise by 3.6% over the next year, slightly below 3.7% in April. Expectations for mortgage interest rates were unchanged at 4.9%. According to the World Meteorological Organization they are saying the severe heat dome over Europe is expected to continue affecting much of Western, Central, and Southern Europe over the next two weeks. There are likely to be economic impacts soon, and as the summer progresses these impacts may well affect economic activity in a material way. And the Bank of International Settlements said over the weekend global pressures from rising public debt to financial fragilities, and questions about the sustainability of ​the AI boom, are increasing systemic financial risks which they suspect could end in a bust. They warned of a complex mix of vulnerabilities, including strained fiscal positions, lingering supply shocks and the risk of a renewed bout of high and sticky inflation. In the US their merchandise trade balance worsened in May. Imports rose +3.6% while exports fell -5.4%. These were much larger shifts than were anticipated. Clearly tariffs aren't working other than making imports more expensive and hurting exports. The net result was a -US$103.5 bln deficit for May, the largest in a year. And their largest May deficit ever. And we should also note that US inventories are rising and quite quickly. In May, wholesale inventories were up +4.4% from a year ago, retail inventories up +3.1%. The stockpiling we noted in their PMI activity is adding deadweight to their logistics systems The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index was revised up to 49.5 in June, although that was less of a revision higher than expected. Still, sentiment improved from May which was the lowest level on record, supported in part by a moderation in petrol prices. And that is despite the fact they remain +31% higher than at the start of Trump's failed Iran adventure. But this didn't stop shoppers at Amazon's 'Prime Day' four-day shopping event. Prime Day 2026 was exclusively for Prime members and ran June 23-26. The wrap-up shows more than US$26 bln was spent in the period, up +9.3% from last year, and expected to be half related to inflation, half a volume gain. And in Australia, it seems that last week's auction results will show that they had their softest sales period in more than five years with many properties failing to sell. Also unfolding is the scale of mortgage fraud against banks by a surprisingly wide section of their mortgage broker community. To defend themselves, the banks are drawing up a black-list register so that brokers just don't go shopping around for vulnerabilities. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.37%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down -12 bps for the week.  The price of gold has risen to US$4089/oz, up a net +US$15/oz from Saturday. That is down -US$66/oz from a week ago. Silver is now under US$59/oz, down -US$5.50 for the week. Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just on US$69/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$72/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$77.50 and US$80.50 respectively. Hormuz transits have eased off noticeably after the recent flare up in fighting with just 16 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) but 24 entering for new loads (3 dark). Over the past two days, more than two thirds of the exiting vessels were headed to China, 9% were Russian-linked, 5% headed for Singapore 4% to South Korea. There are still hundreds (459) yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from this time Saturday at just on 56.4 USc, down -100 bps from a week ago. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.8 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at just on 49.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 which is down -110 bps for the week, and still its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,497 and down -0.5% from this time Saturday, and down -5.1% from this time last week Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/- 0.9%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news more vessels are moving out of the Strait of Hormuz, but 'incidents' are generating nervousness in a fragile situation. First, US PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May and as expected, a rise from 3.8% in April. Core PCE inflation rose too, also as expected and is now at 3.4%. Meanwhile both personal income and personal spending rose at essentially the same pace. More generally, it is not only the Gulf war impacts driving inflation. AI is pushing companies to raise prices to cover its 'investment'. For example, Macbooks and iPads are up +20% on this 'recovery' push. May durable goods orders in the US fell sharply from April, but recall that April was relatively strong. But from a year ago they are also lower, down -4.4%. Capital goods orders dived -21.5% in May from a year ago largely on very weak aircraft orders. US initial jobless claims fell slightly more than expected last week and more than seasonal factors would have indicated. There are now 1.73 mln people on these benefits, lower than year-ago levels. But much tighter requirements are preventing many from claiming this or other social safety net options. The Chicago Fed's national activity index slipped lower in May after the somewhat unusual improvement in April. That means it has decreased in eight of the past twelve months, and was flat in another one. However the Kansas City Fed factory survey was much more positive in that region in its June edition, delivering one of its most upbeat results since the post-pandemic recovery. Global container freight rates rose another +5% last week to extend its rising trend that started in early May by adding +82% in that period. From a year ago it is up only +40%. Driving this latest rise are outbound rate from China to the US West Coast. Bulk cargo freight rates were little-changed this week however, remaining +60% higher than year-ago levels. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.39%, down -1 bp from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has risen back to US$4032/oz, up a net +US$54/oz from yesterday. Silver is just on US$58/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday. Oil prices are up +US$1 from yesterday at just on US$71.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$75/bbl. Hormuz transits have picked up with 41 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (3 dark with transponders off) and 21 entering for new loads (3 dark). There are still hundreds yet to try their luck, no doubt inhibited by insurance issues. And overnight one ship was hit by live-fire after an Iran warning and this incident saw the oil price rise. The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -20 bps at 81.7 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.4 which is unchanged from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,377 and essentially unchanged from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been high at just over +/- 3.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI

Kia ora. Welcome to Thursday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand. I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz. Today we lead with news of falls in many metrics across the board today, highlighted by commodity prices, crypto and interest rates. Equities are lower too. But the USD is rising on risk-aversion. There is now international agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz ("without tolls") and that is expected to see a rush of hundreds of ships and cargoes on the move, flooding refiners with product just as indications are that demand is weakening. Urea prices are now back below pre-war levels although sulphur prices are remaining unusually high. (Key Chinese sulphur inventories are currently at a decade low.) But first in the US, mortgage applications were little-changed last week as were mortgage interest rates, when refi activity firmed but new purchase activity eased. And that is consistent with new home sales in the US that fell away in May to levels they had in the late stages of the pandemic in 2022. This was surprise because they were expected to rise from April's level. There was also a surprise bigger-than-expected fall in US crude oil stocks last week, extending the outsized trend to nine straight weeks. Again, this is the longest streak of weakness since the post-pandemic 2021-2022 period. Petrol stocks rose however, suggesting much lower demand is the new trend. There was a well-supported US Treasury 5yr bond auction earlier today and the median yield came in at 4.14% (4.20% high), little changed from the 4.12% median at the prior equivalent event a month ago. Across the Pacific, Taiwanese industrial production was up +11.8% in May from a year ago, easing from an upwardly revised 14.9% rise in April. But this was their slowest expansion since January 2025 even if it was a new all-time record high in value terms. Going the other way, Taiwanese retail sales are still rising fast, up +4.9% in May to extend their about +5% growth rate to four consecutive months. Clearly their stellar economic expansion is spilling into the wider consumer community. In Japan, the minutes of the last central bank meeting show its decisionmakers view it appropriate to continue raising its policy interest rate, as underlying inflation has been moving toward the 2% target while financial conditions have remained accommodative. They say that if the economy and prices evolve in line with the Bank's outlook, further rate hikes would become warranted. Some argued Japan's policy rate remains below the estimated neutral interest rate, seen at around 2%, and should be brought closer to that level. It is currently at 1%. In China, their important grain harvest season is well underway with record output and high yields. This is expected to keep Chinese import demand on the lowish side. In Australia, a +6.5% rise in housing costs (mainly from a +21% jump in electricity costs) drove their May CPI 4.0% inflation rate, not fuel or food. But that was lower than the expected 4.4% rate and in fact a four month low. The overall trimmed mean was up 3.6% however, a rise from April. So their underlying inflation trend is still firming. The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.40%, down another -6 bps from this time yesterday.  The price of gold has fallen to US$3978/oz, down a net -US$152/oz from yesterday. Silver is just under US$56.50/oz, down a huge -US$5.50 from yesterday (-9%). Oil prices are down -US$2.50 from yesterday at just on US$70.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is -US$3 lower and now just on US$74/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed modest with 13 crude or product tankers exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and 12 entering for new loads (2 dark). This is expected to change soon. The Kiwi dollar is down another -30 bps from this time yesterday at just on 56.4 USc and a seven month low. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 81.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also down -10 bps at just on 49.7 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.4 which is down another -20 bps from yesterday, and still near its lowest since the GFC in 2009. The bitcoin price starts today at US$59,403 and down a sharp -4.9% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at just over +/- 3.1%. You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz. Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow. Audio soundtrack opening is licensed from Shutterstock, Track 1219389 Monetization ID TFGEPGEI0LHEIJAI