Brazil: Bolsonaro on Trial, Lula Under Pressure

With Brazil about a year and a half away from the 2026 elections, political dynamics are shifting once again. The economy is growing at 3%, and employment remains high, yet President Lula’s approval rating has dropped to 41%—the lowest of any of his three terms. Meanwhile, the right may be gaining momentum, fueled by the Supreme Court’s decision to put former President Jair Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged 2022 coup attempt. Bolsonaro has appealed to conservative global figures, comparing his legal battles to those of Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen. In this episode, Guilherme Casarões analyzes Brazil’s evolving political and economic landscape. Casarões is a professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas’s São Paulo School of Business Administration and a contributor to AQ.