EPISODE · Aug 21, 2025 · 1H 7M
Brent Johnson: Expect a terrifying DRAWDOWN before YEAR-END when the DOLLAR rises
from Macroscopic Podcast · host GoldRepublic
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, lays out why a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger a global financial crisis before the end of the year. He explains why the dollar can only fall if the U.S. allows it, how rising rates and geopolitical fragmentation are setting the stage for a major liquidity event, and why most investors are completely unprepared. We also cover: – The coming terrifying drawdown and how to position for it – Why Trump’s America First policies are breaking the rules-based order – How a yen + dollar carry trade unwind could freeze global capital flows – Why swap lines may not be available in the next crisis – The role of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins in the evolving system – Why central banks fear a return to a gold standard 🏆 GET ONE FREE GRAM OF GOLD by opening an account at GoldRepublic: 👉 https://qrco.de/Macroscopic_1Gram 📲 Download the GoldRepublic app: - Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.goldrepublic - Apple Store: https://apps.apple.com/nl/app/goldrepublic/id475643876 🟠 Buy and store physical allocated gold, silver and platinum. 👉 Open an account: https://bit.ly/38stf7p ⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️ The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent. The information provided in this video statement is not an offer, investment advice, or financial service. It is also not intended to encourage you to buy or sell a product or to purchase a service from GoldRepublic, nor as a basis for an investment decision. A decision to invest in a GoldRepublic product can and may only be based on the information contained in a final prospectus and any Key Investor Information and other information about the product concerned (such as annual or semi-annual results). This information is available on the website (www.goldrepublic.com). If necessary, call in an advisor. 00:00 – Why the Dollar Can’t Fall Unless the U.S. Allows It 03:10 – What Is the Dollar Milkshake Theory? 06:17 – Why Critics Misunderstand the Milkshake Framework 8:45 – Why the 2022 Crisis Didn’t Materialize 14:40 – Trump, Trade Wars & the End of Cooperation 17:05 – Is 2025 Another 2018 or 2008 Setup? 20:15 – Everyone’s Bearish: Dollar Sentiment Breakdown 23:20 – The Dollar Danger Zone & Fed's Dilemma 26:50 – Why the Dollar Falls First in a Crisis 31:00 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind & Global Liquidity Risks 35:00 – Where Does the Crisis Start? 38:00 – Can the U.S. Survive the Drawdown? 40:10 – The Future of Swap Lines Under Trump 42:10 – The Fed–Treasury Merger Scenario 47:00 – Portfolio Strategy: Hedges, Cash & Tail Risk 51:00 – Bitcoin: Asset vs Currency Debate 54:00 – Stablecoins, XRP & Digital Dollar Strategy 58:00 – Gold’s Role: Store of Value or Money? 1:02:00 – Why Non-U.S. Buyers Are Driving Gold Higher 1:04:30 – Is Gold Money Today?
What this episode covers
Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital and creator of the Dollar Milkshake Theory, lays out why a stronger U.S. dollar could trigger a global financial crisis before the end of the year. He explains why the dollar can only fall if the U.S. allows it, how rising rates and geopolitical fragmentation are setting the stage for a major liquidity event, and why most investors are completely unprepared. We also cover: – The coming terrifying drawdown and how to position for it – Why Trump’s America First policies are breaking the rules-based order – How a yen + dollar carry trade unwind could freeze global capital flows – Why swap lines may not be available in the next crisis – The role of gold, Bitcoin, and stablecoins in the evolving system – Why central banks fear a return to a gold standard 🏆 GET ONE FREE GRAM OF GOLD by opening an account at GoldRepublic: 👉 https://qrco.de/Macroscopic_1Gram 📲 Download the GoldRepublic app: - Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.goldrepublic - Apple Store: https://apps.apple.com/nl/app/goldrepublic/id475643876 🟠 Buy and store physical allocated gold, silver and platinum. 👉 Open an account: https://bit.ly/38stf7p ⚠️ DISCLAIMER ⚠️ The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent. The information provided in this video statement is not an offer, investment advice, or financial service. It is also not intended to encourage you to buy or sell a product or to purchase a service from GoldRepublic, nor as a basis for an investment decision. A decision to invest in a GoldRepublic product can and may only be based on the information contained in a final prospectus and any Key Investor Information and other information about the product concerned (such as annual or semi-annual results). This information is available on the website (www.goldrepublic.com). If necessary, call in an advisor. 00:00 – Why the Dollar Can’t Fall Unless the U.S. Allows It 03:10 – What Is the Dollar Milkshake Theory? 06:17 – Why Critics Misunderstand the Milkshake Framework 8:45 – Why the 2022 Crisis Didn’t Materialize 14:40 – Trump, Trade Wars & the End of Cooperation 17:05 – Is 2025 Another 2018 or 2008 Setup? 20:15 – Everyone’s Bearish: Dollar Sentiment Breakdown 23:20 – The Dollar Danger Zone & Fed's Dilemma 26:50 – Why the Dollar Falls First in a Crisis 31:00 – Yen Carry Trade Unwind & Global Liquidity Risks 35:00 – Where Does the Crisis Start? 38:00 – Can the U.S. Survive the Drawdown? 40:10 – The Future of Swap Lines Under Trump 42:10 – The Fed–Treasury Merger Scenario 47:00 – Portfolio Strategy: Hedges, Cash & Tail Risk 51:00 – Bitcoin: Asset vs Currency Debate 54:00 – Stablecoins, XRP & Digital Dollar Strategy 58:00 – Gold’s Role: Store of Value or Money? 1:02:00 – Why Non-U.S. Buyers Are Driving Gold Higher 1:04:30 – Is Gold Money Today?
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Brent Johnson: Expect a terrifying DRAWDOWN before YEAR-END when the DOLLAR rises
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