Brewing Uncertainty: The Coffee Supply Chain Shock

Coffee is one of those products people think of as routine, almost automatic. It is part of the morning, part of the commute, part of the office, part of the café economy. So when something changes in the coffee supply chain, people feel it. In late 2025, coffee prices started rising thanks to a combination of forces: weather shocks in major producing countries, tariff policy changes that altered landed cost, shrinking exchange inventories, currency volatility, and the lag effect that happens when sourcing decisions do not hit the consumer shelf for months.  What makes coffee especially revealing is that this is not just a story about one bad harvest or policy move. It is a story about how a globally traded commodity reacts when short-term disruption and long-term structural risk overlap. In this episode of the Art of Supply podcast, Kelly Barner covers:  How weather in Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia tightened supply and pushed coffee futures higher Why tariffs mattered even in a market where climate and crop conditions were already under strain How those upstream shocks moved through inventories, contracts, roasters, and retail pricing, but with a delay What this example reveals about uncertainty, substitution, margin pressure, and strategic repositioning   Links: Kelly Barner on LinkedIn Art of Supply LinkedIn newsletter  Art of Supply on AOP Subscribe to This Week in Procurement