Bribery Fines, Canadian Tariffs, and the Destock Reality

- Compliance: Southern Glazer’s $12.5 million NPA over retailer bribery; TTB no further action; Almave NA listing continues.- Inventories & destock: Evercore ISI July data, 1.66 inventory-to-sales ratio, pantry levels rising.- Off-premise NIQ (4 weeks to Aug 29): total alcohol –4.3% dollars / –6.1% volume; beer weakest; RTDs, NA, imports, super-premium holding; detailed brand and manufacturer gainers (Pacifico, Victoria, Surfside, Super Lyte, Josh, LaMarca, Deutsch, etc.).- Depletions: WSWA SipSource wine/spirits –6.8% LTM; spirits weaker than wine; on-premise less damaged.- Earnings & leadership: Molson Coors S&P 500 exit despite beat; Pernod U.S. –14%, recovery 2029; Fever-Tree guidance; Boston Beer CMO Allison Stransky; Brown-Forman whiskey “exaggerated demise,” barrel/bulk collapse, craft distillery contraction.- M&A, bankruptcy, capacity: Reyes/Western Maryland; RNDC DIP, Reyes settlement, Martignetti Control States; Signorello Ch. 11; Brookside/Sbragia; Saothair/FIFCO USA (Genesee, Labatt, etc.) restoring North American Breweries.- Trade policy: Trump proclamation banning most Canadian alcohol Sept 29 (section 338, 50% duties); DISCUS/AWA export collapse; Sapporo shifting production onshore; SpiritsEurope EU exports down; O’Charley’s closures.- Hemp: Ohio injunction (Delta Beverages v. Canepa); Hemp Beverage Alliance new directors; Dec 11 federal deadline.- Legal/IP: Cielo e Terra TTAB win; Vintage 99 trade-secrets injunction hearing; Bordeaux Cellars fraud sentence.- Consumer: SAMHSA AUD and use declines; Southern Glazer’s Raise the Bar H2 themes (Gen Z, RTDs 94% of spirits growth, on-premise discovery, K-shaped, NA year-round); IWSR per-capita –11% vs 2019; Costco still spending.- Other: Wine Institute toolkit; Christina Aguilera/Beau Joie; NRA “Made in Restaurants”; obituaries (Gayheart/Buffalo Trace, Coleman/Gallo, Rinaldi/Duckhorn); Illusionist/Benchmark; Kendall Jenner/Trip; Bain holiday forecast (F&B flat).