It's Fantasy Draft Season, which means you need the Ultimate Draft Kit to dominate your draft. Premium stat projections, tier-based rankings, 100-plus player profile videos, and a sweet, cheat-cheap creator that you can dive in, mark all of your players, print it out, or use it on the app. Lots more. Where that came from, check it all out at ultimatedraftkit.com.
Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers Podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Welcome in. Welcome.
It really was. I know we've all got drafts going on, which have been very fun. We're through two weeks of the preseason. I watched the third episode of Hard Knocks yesterday.
How was it? I've got thoughts. Yeah, how big was Keenan? Keenan has lost all the way.
He looks fine. It was a temporary... Tell me your secrets, Keenan. Keenan's in good shape.
He was rather dominant. The two thoughts that I have is, one, just general commentary. It's opinion. It's subjective.
I think they need better stories. I do. I think they need better stories on... They're found in an end?
Not on purpose. I mean, some people, I think, maybe were better at finding them in years past. It's not the danger of reality television. Sometimes they're there, sometimes they're not.
Yeah, no, that's true. And you have these teams. I mean, there's more and more and more media training for all these players. We've got to get rid of that nonsense.
Like, protect yourself, protect the brand, all of these types of things. Say nothing controversial. Yes, but compared to when Hard Knocks... I mean, the show's been on, I don't even know how long, for a very long time.
So, it's a different type of... These are players who grew up watching Hard Knocks. You're not getting me like that. That's fair.
That's fair. I mean, I think the other takeaway is, and again, complete, just my opinion, based on three episodes of kind of candid access to Caleb Williams in the team. There's a lot of people going out there and making a big deal about the Bears. They're kind of a posh pick to make a run with a rookie quarterback, which I think is scary in some regards, especially for Chicago, who's never had an All-Pros since 1950, to put that kind of pressure, right?
Like, if that's the prediction, you save the franchise. That's hard. That's hard for... It'd be hard for Peyton Manning.
It was hard for, you know, Phillip Rivers. It's hard for any of these young rookie quarterbacks. But, I think it's going to work with Caleb. Okay.
I think the demeanor and the kind of... Like, he's not Tom Brady. Like, his mindset is not Kobe. It's not chip on the shoulder, I've got to prove you wrong, and I'm going to outwork you.
But, it's also a little bit... The skill and talent is there, and he's got a level of unflappable to him, that I think will translate really well to being an NFL quarterback, where, you know, to forget the bad play, when you're a rookie, you're going to make bad plays, and to go on to the next one. So, I am... I do think it's going to work with Caleb Williams in Chicago, and for all the Chicago fans, long-suffering...
But, how long? I mean, because, you know, I believe it's going to work for... Like, how long until it works? Yeah, like, are you saying that you think it's going to work this year?
Because, obviously, saying, you know, it should work for Caleb Williams long-term, that seems easier. But, your take is... You don't want to give it easy. No, I don't want to give it easy.
I don't think Chicago's a playoff team this year. I think they'll... Most of them, Chicago! I think they're right on the fringe, though, and I think it's possible.
I just think that... I think long-term, this was an amazing decision, obviously, by them, from the trade to get the pick to moving on from Justin Fields. I think it's very different. I think Caleb Williams is going to break that 4,000-yard passing record, and I think the future's bright.
That's all. That's all. It's always fun to watch. I'm not saying, like, it's not been entertaining.
It is entertaining. A couple of big announcements. Oh, this announcement sounds terrible. Wow.
Okay. What happened is that we have the loser button. No, I mean, what's the terrible... Yeah, I don't know.
What is this bad news? Papa Josh is really constipated. Oh, yeah. That sounds pretty normal.
That's the news. No, look, the loser horn is a trumpet, and then the horn announced, has no graphic, and I just mixed them up. You saw the trumpet. I just saw the trumpet.
I'm like, this is going to make this sound. But we announced it. He's clear. His headphones are free.
Just now. Breaking news. We did put one of those buttons in our bathrooms, and so when... It goes through the whole studio.
When you've completed, you push the button, and everyone knows. I wonder who that was. It wasn't a falcon. I know that.
All right. The Megalobull. I just wanted to mention it again here at the top. You can go to Megalobull.com, and every FootClan supporter gets a free entry to the largest fantasy football league in the world.
We've made some awesome changes. Trades are back. If you've played in the past, normally we've got... I mean, over 20,000 people have entered the last couple of years.
5,000 people are in as of this morning. We really opened it up yesterday, so they're flooding it. And so that's Megalobull.com. Head over there, and the community is JoinTheFoot.com.
We announced a bunch of unique stuff yesterday about the chance to get in there, including the Ultimate Tier, which if you bought the UDK and you want to become a FootClan supporter, you can translate the purchase of the 2024 UDK into an Ultimate membership, which is available at JoinTheFoot.com. And don't forget, if you win the Megalobull, you are in our 2025 Listener League, and you get a FootClan Ultimate Tier for life. And Jason, we do have one more announcement before we jump into all that we have prepared on today's show, including Hungry for More and NFL News. Do I know what it is?
Well, you wanted to share some of the things happening at the live show. Okay, so I did want the list. We've got the live show on Saturday. I think there are a few tickets left if you want to go to BallersLive.com.
That's Los Angeles Palace Theater. Yeah, sorry. But we're giving away a bunch of stuff there, signed stuff. And I just wanted to give an example of some of the stuff.
If you're there, you might just catch this. We're throwing them out. Throw them from the stage. Signed Justin Jefferson jersey.
Signed Jalen Waddle. We've got two Jalen Waddle jerseys. We had two. You kept one?
Okay, we'll throw out one. No, I don't know what happened to it. I'm just saying we had two. Oh, okay.
We've got a Kyron Williams jersey, a James Cook jersey, a Nico Collins jersey, a DJ Moore jersey, an Evan Ingram jersey. And we've got classics that have been around the studio for a while. Can I read them? Yeah, yeah, yeah.
We're giving away some classics. Yeah. So we're giving away tons of those jerseys you mentioned. But then we have, we were looking around the studio and what we had autographed.
And we thought it would be fun. There is a signed Deontay Pettis jersey. Yes. Going into the crowd.
There's a signed Calvin Ridley jersey. Alshon Jeffrey. Kenny G, baby. Kenny G.
We've got David Johnson going out there. Austin Eckler, Michael Crabtree. We have Michael Crabtree. I remember that guy.
So a lot of fun stuff. So ballerslog.com. Come on down there. Man, I want the Crabtree.
All right. Moving on. Welcome to Hungry for More, presented by Uber Eves. All right.
This week on Hungry for More, we're looking for those rising stars players you've seen a flash from. Had some nibbles in preseason. You want to see more of it? And Jason, why don't you kick off?
Yeah, I'm going to bring up a guy who was my number one favorite rookie running back coming in in the draft season before the NFL draft. It was rookie Trey Benson, who just so happens to go to our Arizona Cardinals. It was exciting. And he's a backup.
Through the offseason program, it was pretty disappointing. You know, listening to local beat reporters, it was like, he's not, you know, he's competing with Amari DiMarcato. And guys that he should just, you know, Michael Carter. We're not even sure he is the backup.
However, lately it has gotten better and better for him. It seems like he is establishing himself as a running back, too. If you watch this last preseason game, he had nine carries for 43 yards. That does not include a 20-yard run that was called back due to holding.
And he played every first and second down snap before he was removed. Amari DiMarcato played on third down. So I do feel like if James Conner goes down, which James Conner has never played a full season, ever, in his entire career, Trey Benson will be really valuable. And he's a good back.
This is a guy, I mean, I've said this many times. I am always hot and bothered for any running backs that weigh 215-plus pounds and run sub 4-4. Those guys just work very hot and bothered. And so, I mean, that's a check and a check.
216 pounds, 4-3-9. I love the film and just the fact that we saw him break out, I want to bring him up also for Dynasty. If you're in the Dynasty League, I do believe that halfway through this year, before James Conner gets injured, I mean, Trey Benson is going to be a forgotten man. He's going to be irrelevant.
He's going to be cheap to acquire. Define cheap, though. Because people are spending first-round rookies. Did you say James Conner?
Because I think you said James Conner's going to be cheap to acquire. Yeah, I can agree with you. Were you talking about Trey Benson? I did not mean to.
No, I'm talking about Trey Benson. Trey Benson, I think, because of James Conner. I said before James Conner gets injured, I believe that Trey Benson will be much more affordable to acquire. Trey McBride is very similar to a former Arizona Cardinal, Trey McBride, who comes out and is behind a veteran.
And then he was in the draft season. Mike and I, we spent a first-round pick, which I usually don't do on rookie tight ends. We pulled the trigger on that in our champ-champ-champ league. You love rookie tight ends?
It looked like a dead pick because he was just not involved. And I think Trey Benson's not going to be involved to start the year. However, James Conner's not the future of this franchise. James Conner, I'm guessing, is not even back the next season.
And Trey Benson will be, I believe, a star in fantasy in the future. So halfway through this year, if he's really relevant, I would try to scoop him up. I'll just throw out a really deep name here, Deontay Foreman, for the Browns. Really deep.
Was that sarcasm or real? No, that was real. He looked great in preseason this last week. He always does.
And he also got the two snaps he got with the first-team offense happened on the one-yard line. We have highlighted this throughout the offseason with Jerome Ford. Like, if Deontay Foreman has the goal line opportunities, like, it's funny because Foreman looks very Kareem Hunt-esque in his opportunities. He was 5-for-46 in the receiving game.
He had, you should look it up, he had a cut in the open field that was pretty amazing. And his opportunities with the first team came on the goal line. So depth at running back in Cleveland is interesting. But how much they'll use Jerome Ford, Pierre Strong, Deontay Foreman, the free agent acquisition, I think he has the opportunity to earn more snaps.
So, look, it's hungry for more for a reason. So, he had nine rushing touchdowns last year, Kareem Hunt did, in Cleveland's offense. They do look for somebody else to be the goal linebacker. Like, that wasn't Jerome Ford.
Yeah, Ford is not going to be the goal linebacker. So, I mean, if it's Foreman and his team is as good as I think they will be, which is going to be an incredible defense, that is, you know, their playoff team last year going through four quarterbacks, I think that the goal line role is valuable. So, you know, even if you're in basketball and you look at the chance, like, Ford could have a couple, you know, two touchdown games or something like that. Mike, why is your hungry for more?
Boys, I am hungry for cold, hard cash. I am hungry for some wide receiver contracts. What is happening in the world today when we have three top-tier wide receivers, like we can, let's say, two elite wide receivers and one top-tier guy, Jamar Chase, Brandon I, UCD Lamb, all out there, not practicing, not with new contracts, and we are, we're in draft season now. So, I just, I wanted to bring this up because I think it's worth having just a quick conversation of, are there elevated levels of concern starting to grow for these players?
Yes. They're elites, but, and they're not running backs, but they're still not out there practicing, getting the rest, making sure that the timing is good with the quarterbacks, and the playbook. So, where are you guys at? Because these are, that's two first-round picks, and one, and Brandon Iyuk is going, you know, often in the third, maybe even like second sometimes, so where, are you growing a concern of adjusting projections?
I haven't adjusted projections, but I mean, this is such a great hungry for more call-out because, gosh, I'm sick of it. Yeah, it's super annoying now. It's like, when I'm at the, you know, if I'm in the top three picks, two of those top three are going to be, you know, or top four, for me, two of those top four are Jamar Chase and CD Lamb. And it's like, I would love for these guys to be playing football.
And the report coming out, I don't know how much I believe it because game checks are different, but like the report that Jamar Chase isn't going to step on the football field without an extension, when he's got two years left, all three of them are, they just feel different. Each situation feels different. I, like, yesterday there was some positive news from Jerry Jones that they're making progress on CD Lamb. I put the poll out, who do you want to sign first of the three guys, middle of yesterday, almost 50% said CD, and then Chase, and then Iyuk, in terms of, but that's like, kind of draft order.
So it's like, how desperate are you? I would imagine that, if I had a handicap right now, my guess is CD signs, and Brandon Iyuk re-signs with San Francisco, and Chase does not get a deal done, but maybe they restructure something. I don't like it. It's not fun.
There were other things that went wrong in Las Vegas beyond Jacobs being late to camp, but we're all tired of it. We want certainty. We want to know what we're doing. We're drafting now.
It was all funny games before we were drafting. Yeah, we're in drafts right now. We've got drafts this weekend, important drafts, real drafts. Like, your main league listener could be this weekend.
So let me ask you, you know, push comes to shove. If you're on the clock, and you've got to decide between Jamar Chase, who I would have had ahead in my rankings, do you switch and pull the trigger on Bijan or Brees, because of these fears, like, not knowing as of this moment? Yeah, I mean, I would. I would.
I mean, I'm probably drafting those guys ahead regardless, but, yeah, I would let that be a differentiator. What are we talking about? You know what, Bijan or Brees on your team? Jarrett Chase has had a bumpy ride for a couple of years.
I mean, I think everyone's waiting for that year, which will probably happen at some point. The 2,000 yards, you know, 17 touchdown year. That'll probably happen, but. You know you're going to pay them.
Like, this is what's the most frustrating, stupid part. We all know how this ends. You write a big fat check. The number that they're asking for, you're going to give them.
You're going to do it. Like, fast forward two weeks, four weeks, however long it is, we're going to report that you're paying bananas money for these guys. So do it now and get them on the field. Stop hurting your team.
Save face by adding two dumb contract stipulations that make you feel like the big man. Yeah. And get the deal done with the money they want, because you know every team in the league would do it. Per article 70, hi, Jerry Jones.
Yeah. Voice my disdain. You have put me through this. I just won another record.
Yeah. Do that. I will be paying your fourth check in pennies, but otherwise, all terms agreeable. All right.
That was Hungry for More presented by Uber Eats. Get almost anything for game day delivered with Uber Eats. Official on-demand delivery partner of the NFL. You can order it right now.
News and notes from around the league. Well, Tyreek Hill will be ready for week one. That is a report from PFN, Adam Beasley. Did you see Mike McDaniel, his comments?
No, I didn't. Were they as entertaining as everything he says all the time? He says, I'm really good at thumb wars. He lost.
Oh, that's good. So it's a thumb injury for Tyreek, and apparently it happened playing Coach McDonald's. That's good stuff. Yeah, that's fun.
AJ Dillon didn't practice due to a stinger. Nothing big there. This one, Jelani Woods, expected down to go surgery. The man in the myth.
Yeah, I mean, it does hurt the team, who is kind of, you know, they need more weapons, and Jelani Woods is a big weapon, but they have a pile, you know, Will Mallory, and Mo'ally Cox, and Kylan Granson, like they have a bunch of tight ends anyway. This is every year. Every year the Colts have four or five relevant tight ends. Three of them get hurt, and the other two are irrelevant, and we move on.
This is why I was so sure that Brock Bowers would be a Colt until the Raiders ruined it. Juwan Johnson has been activated from the PUP list, tight end of the Saints, underwent foot surgery this spring. So another... Deep sleeper.
Yeah. We don't have players outside of a lobby in the past game right now anyway. So, Brock Bowers missed Tuesday's practice with a sore foot and missed the last preseason game with the same issue. So, yeah, just something to monitor.
That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USA.com slash insurance. We'll take a break. We'll come back with some bus picks.
All right, we're going to jump right in. The last two days we did breakouts and sleepers, our individual picks for these categories. All of our consensus picks are in the opening draft kit where we have at least two-thirds agreement. Most of them, I think, this year.
Are we getting soft? No, I think we're getting better and we all agree on some of these clear more lifts. This episode, we do not agree. This episode, we've got some bad takes.
Yeah, I agree. Yours are troubled. Bus. All right, we each have an individual bus pick.
Jason's is deeply upsetting. I agree. Mike, do you want to go first? Do you want me to go first?
I'm happy to go first. I'm trying to say, like, I can see the analytics of people that watch our show and a lot of people listen to the whole thing. But, like, statistically speaking, there's drop-off over time because people have a certain amount of time to listen. So, you can watch it, you know, like, 100% of people listening and it goes down a little bit.
So, then I'll go next to them. I'm trying to push yours to the back, Jason. All right, Mike, you go first and then we'll get to Jason and I's very controversial picks. It's kind of been the same the whole offseason and my opinions haven't changed.
I think that Joe Mixon of the Houston Texans now, I don't think he returns on his ADP. My main point of argument is that he cannot keep getting away with this. And what I mean by that is... He cannot keep getting away with this!
I am Jesse Pinkman right now. The guy has been good for fantasy football. You can't argue with that. But it has been inefficient and gross to watch and he can't keep getting away with it.
Last year, he was the RB5. However, fantasy points per game, that's his worst since 2019. Yards per route run, worst of his career. Yards after contact, worst since his rookie year.
Breakaway 15-yard runs, the good stuff that we want. The worst of his career, just seven runs of 15 or more yards on 299 rush attempts. Guys, that's a breakaway percentage that is in line with last year's Alvin Kamara, Rashad White. Like, guys who, when you watch them, you go, well, that guy's getting it done by pure volume, just being on the field.
And that's what Joe Mixon was last year. He had 39 attempts inside the 10. Wow. 39 and he scored eight rushing touchdowns.
That is an inefficient player. Yeah, he's just like, awesome. How'd you do that? How'd you do that?
And this is running back five on the season. However, that is... We're not taking out the final week of the season for him, but if you do, because not everyone's playing fantasy football that week, he was a running back 13 in points per game from weeks 1 through 17. His best ability last year was availability.
Over the first half of the year, he was scoring basically as many points as Tony Pollard, who people were big mad at Tony Pollard. Joe Mixon just happened to finish a little bit better. And it's the question of, does this work for the Houston Texans? Yes.
The Cincinnati Bengals, high-powered offense. Houston Texans, high-powered offense. For the most part, I want running backs who are in that type of a system. I just think that Joe Mixon is being a little bit overdrafted.
He's not off my board, but I think that he is being overdrafted. I'm not sure that he's going to work in this system. This is Bobby Slowick, a.k.a. San Francisco South.
And the players that we see work for that system, they got juice. Joe Mixon, at this point in his career, where he's seen his efficiency of yards per carry in the last five years, he's 4-1, 3-6, 4-1, 3-9, 4-0. He is not explosive. I don't know who on this team goes in and takes work away from Joe Mixon.
That's why I'm saying he's not totally off my board. It could be nobody, because the Damian Pierce numbers are like Barnum and Bailey type circus numbers. They are so laughably bad. I'll whisper the name Can Makers.
I will whisper that into the ether. He was potentially my Hungry for More. Yeah. His preseason performance has been pretty good.
We must whisper it together about Can Makers. I just, I see so many things going wrong for him. And of course, the targets I brought that up before of Joe Mixon. Love checking it down to Joe Mixon.
Last year, the Texans and CJ Stroud, while Singletary started to turn it on a little bit at the end, they were still one of the lowest targets to the running back position because of CJ Stroud, how he plays the quarterback position. So again, this is not, I'm not saying it's gloom and doom for Joe Mixon. It's an absolute disaster. There's some things that I love about it, but I'm just, he's in that dead zone.
He's in the dead zone for running backs for a reason. I know that Jason has a very different opinion on Joe Mixon. Yeah, I don't agree that he is. I mean, I think he's a quality back.
Do you think he can keep getting away with this? I think he can. I think he will keep getting away with this. I mean, I agree with you that.
That system is much better with an explosive speedster. I mean, that's where you're going to get the juice of the real high upside. And I would agree with you that Mixon does not have that. But would you say Devin Singletary has explosive juice?
I think that he's got good short area speed, better than Joe Mixon. Okay. I mean, maybe he's... Rebuttal.
I'm just like, no one has ever talked about Devin Singletary as an explosive athlete. He's a quality back that has good vision and, you know, can make the first guy miss in a box. And Joe Mixon can break that first tackle in a box. And my point is, last year, when they made that transition away from trying to make Damian Pierce work, and they said, okay, Singletary's better.
You're the lead back. From that point forward, he was running back nine in this system. I can't wait for them to find that running back this year. I mean, this is why he's not a consensus.
Yeah. Joe Mixon is 28 years old. That's what I said. We're at age cliff.
He's going into season eight. He is at season cliff. Like, the red flags on Joe are waving rapidly in the wind. I lean, lean, like a slight two steps to the right towards the Mixon being okay for this year.
Yeah. I don't think he's going to be a top five guy, but I don't think he's going to be, you know, the running back 20. I look at him and Jacobson, where good offense, good money, red flags from previous inefficiencies, but I could be just wrong about them in either direction. Yeah, at least Jacobson's younger.
I'm going to offend, and then Jason will offend. My best pick is not going to make people happy. It's Jackson Smith and Jigba. Boo!
And I know you're both booing. Yeah. But it's from the heart. I just want you to note that.
There are a number of things that I will point to on Jason that are concerning, and I feel like the only way to really believe in Jason is excuse making to a large degree. It is either leaning on collegiate production. It's leaning on a change in offensive philosophy and coordinator and head coach, but it's not leaning on the signs that we saw in the football field last year. And what we saw in the field was concerning, not even drawing attention to weeks one through six, where Terrence Marshall and Jonathan Mingo and Kadarius Toney and Alan Robinson had more fantasy points than he did, because he was hurt.
And I'm willing to allow that beginning of the season to be a bit of a washout. You would have loved to have seen him do more, but banged up, so we'll give you that excuse. Let's check that one off the box. Thank you.
The problem is that he didn't make the kinds of splash plays over the duration of the season that I wanted to see beyond that point. And I genuinely believe that there are two wide receivers on the team that today are better wide receivers. They're better route runners. They're better, they have a better history of production.
Tyler Lockett is still a better wide receiver. They went out and they gave Tyler Lockett more money. He's still a part of this offense. We are just tired of him in the fantasy world, so we want to move on to JSN.
Over the last decade, and mind you, he averaged 37 yards per game last year. Over the last decade, here are the first round rookie wide receivers to average fewer than 40 yards per game with 10 games played. JSN's one of them. Quinton Johnson, Rashad Perryman, Devontae Parker, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Aguilar, Jalen Rager, Corey Davis, Philip Dorshat, Mike Williams.
That's a bad news. It's not good company. That was just if you played 10 games as a rookie or more and averaged less than 40 yards a game. That was in your first round.
In your first round. Did you say Jameson Williams? Jameson Williams? Yeah, he didn't play 10 games as a rookie.
No, no. I'm sorry, I'm looking at 23. My apologies. And for whatever reason, like we have to make leaps with JSN.
We have to say, okay, well, you're not going to use him like he did last year. That's going to change because we have to use him differently for him to be productive because his average depth of the target was 6.4 yards. Yeah, it was vomit. So, I mean, he had 29 receptions behind the line of scrimmage.
We did this once and I'm not saying they're the same player but the draft capital isn't that insanely far apart. Like Rondell Moore, we kept saying like, dude, this guy's great on this field. We need to use him that way. He got boxed in and I'm worried about Jason getting boxed in when you have a better talent in DK Metcalf on one side, a better talent in Tyler Lockett on the other side, a dependency on Geno Smith who may or may not be the future.
You don't have to pay a ton for JSN but this is a bust section on the show. This is a bust segment. I think JSN is not going to deliver on the promise this year. And this is not something that like eventually the first round draft capital becomes a fun factoid about a player like some of those guys, like it's not impossible.
I'm not saying Jackson Smith is a lifetime bust but I do think there are two better wide receivers on this football team. That's all I'm going to say. Yeah, I mean, I hear some of your arguments and it is upsetting from an emotional standpoint because I still believe that he is very talented and the utilization, the way they used him, Shane Walder, it was just so gross. It was so nasty and you're right, obviously if he gets boxed into that role, that's not going to work.
Part of what we talked about this offseason, the new grub system coming over, you saw so much success from the slot players. You know, Jalen Polk, you know, was in that role that JSN has now effectiveness in the slot. Like you have to be really effective. Like historically speaking in fantasy, if that's your full-time role, you really have to do a lot.
You can be an amazing asset to the team and not deliver fantasy from the slot. So it just feels like maybe we're asking too much this year. I'm not sure, but that's what I wanted to bring up. And moving on to the values.
Not yet, sucker. Can I leave the room? No, you need to listen. You of all people need to listen.
Mike doesn't need to listen. I don't know, probably. Can you get the blue button for yourself? Yes, I can.
My bust pick is Marvin Harrison Jr., rookie wide receiver for the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah, I know. Look, this pains me as much as anyone. I love Marv.
He is not going to be a bust in the NFL. He is not going to be a bust in his career. He is the most surefire prospect I can ever remember. This is not about whether he is good or not.
He's great. This is about whether where he's being drafted in fantasy football during his rookie season is a good pick. That's all this is. And I don't believe it's a good pick when I look at the opportunity cost that you can, you know, the shots you can take on him.
And really, it's almost more, when I look at my strategy, it's like the wide receivers here at the break, at that one-two turn. Like, I think he would be a good pick and right around guys that I feel like there's a big tear break. The Devontae Adams, where it's like, ah, he's older, you know, he wasn't consistent last year. He's got a bad quarterback.
Okay, Chris Olave, no, you know, he's the one, but he's got their car. Drake London could break up. He hasn't done it yet. And then that's why Marv is going super high because you're like, well, what if he is the next greatest player and you get that top five breakout rookie season?
I'm not saying that it's impossible that that happens, but the odds are that that doesn't happen. So when we look at drafting, you know, first of all, he's the highest drafted rookie wide receiver of all time. There's never been anyone close to this. The second highest was a fourth round draft pick.
In fact, the second highest is in Leak neighbors this season when you look at average draft position of a rookie wide receiver. He's going to the wide receiver nine. And if you look at the opportunity cost, the expectation over the last six years, a top 10 wide receiver has averaged 148 targets, over 100 receptions, 1,366 receiving yards, 9.6 receiving touchdowns. That's what you're going to need for this pick to pay off for him to be a top 10 guy.
Right now, he's drafting sportsbook line for receiving yards is 1,500 yards, not 1,366. 9.6 touchdowns is a rookie. 1,000 yards? I'm sure.
1,000 point five. It's a high bar for a rookie. And if he comes out and hits 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns on 80 receptions, that is an amazing rookie season. You will absolutely not have made a good draft pick at the one, two turn getting that kind of a production.
So when I look at it, you've got to put names into, okay, how else could you play? Are you taking him over Kyron Williams? That, look, I was going to say, there's a peacemaking that can happen right here. And it's not selecting a different wide receiver.
Right. It's selecting the opportunity cost at running back, which more often than not I would do despite loving Martin. I feel like the bust pick for me really here is the beginning of the second wide receivers. I feel like those are mistakes because when I look at the wide receivers you can make up in rounds three through five, there are names we just love.
Malik Neighbors in the fourth, Cooper Cupp, DK Metcalf. I mean, maybe they don't... Would you pick Pacheco over him? Over Marvin?
No, no, just because of the ADP game. I'm really... Pacheco's in the third. Purely for our league record mock draft they did last night.
I know you've got the fifth pick and I want to know if you're taking Marvin, honestly. That's funny. So I just think if you go a different route, there's a couple running backs there that I think are more valuable and then there are chock full of the Waddles, Devontae Smiths rounds later that I think are going to produce pretty similarly to Marvin Harrison Jr. So it pains me as a Cardinals fan but I think where he's going drafts is bad.
Yeah, it's unfortunate that bust, four letters, very powerful word. But it means something different in fantasy. He's my wide receiver 14. So it's like, is that a bust of a rookie season for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
No, that's awesome. But if you draft him as the wide receiver 9 and he finishes as the wide receiver 14, you aren't going to be happy. Do you agree, Mike? Or do you think that Marvin might just...
Maybe the thousand and a half will be what I define it as? I agree that the risk is tremendous. And this is not the risk on the player. All three of us, despite how our projections, our feelings of evaluating the situation, Andy, you're at 10, at least with the most recent projections, that's still a spot behind his ADP, which, like, that's not a ton, of course.
But when you're in the top 10 of a position, that is a gap. I have him right now at 11 where he's being drafted as a wide receiver 9 on sleeper. So it just comes down to how much risk are you willing to take on because it is. The numbers when you actually see them laid out of what he has to hit to pay off at that or even exceed your expectations, it's a gigantic season.
All right. Going to take a break. Come back with some values. One final thought on Marvin Harrison as we jump into the values is there is a...
I think one thing going into the equation is fun, enjoyment. Yeah. The type of player you want to put on your roster that you don't want to miss on. Nobody wants to take, I don't know, somebody going back behind him and miss out on that special year, especially in keeper leagues where the potential is to hold that guy.
Oh, yeah. I mean, keeper league is... That does ring different because where you're going and those other wide receivers around him, you know, you're going to want to want to add on keeper league or more for sure. All right.
Let's jump into some values. Values. Well, we'll go on the same order, Mike. You can kick it off and follow up my hungry...
with the starter yeah the current starter from the cleveland rounds it's jerome ford who i don't understand the adp i i do not get it jerome ford last year had to step into a big time role because nick chubb went down to the devastating injury very early in the season and it was jerome ford time and while it was not this isn't the real sexy oh man i'm getting weak winning performances from jerome ford he was in the top 24 the bar that we we need people to be in 11 times that's one more time the breeze hall was in the top 24 again not saying they're the same player but just that he averaged nearly 16 opportunities per game he is uh he's a good pass catcher he was third on the browns in targets per route run 44 receptions i guess more than second barkley had this past year he had five receiving touchdowns that could be a bar that could be definitely harder to hit again but only christian mccaffrey had more among the running back position like he is a competent player and he's going to be the starter on the cleveland browns for at least a chunk of the season maybe it's only four games i i don't care those four games that's a good percentage of the season should you should you build your your team heavy with wide receivers and some onesie positions jerome ford is sitting in here just as a christmas gift to to someone that could be your rb2 for the first quarter of the season while you try and figure out more guys or or nick chubb is older has had the same knee destroyed multiple times and nick chubb really never gets back to the player that he was that you would hope he could get to and it's just jerome ford's time for half the season 75 of the season so it's just like the fact that you can get someone who's gonna see that many opportunities for i'm i don't know that i'm as bullish on the browns as andy is but i think they're gonna be a good offense like stefanski has given us good stuff even with that even with that quarterback play so getting him at running back 40 is it just it's an absolute value and a steal for me guys going like trey benson trey benson's going right around around drone ford play corum there is going around drone ford like what are we doing here we are we are seeing the dismissal of the boring in drone ford i had him on the roster last year watching him play is mostly boring yes he's effective but he's boring which is what my pick is here i'm going boring as well in a lot of people's minds but so very much the number one on this team that i think will be better than people think on offense and i'm going brian robinson jr going brian robinson is my value pick i've been talking him up this offseason brian robinson is boring boring and he was so boring that he was the number he was rb4 in fantasy football for 11 weeks to start last year on the highest passing volume team in the national football league that's what brian robinson was for your team and this is a guy that can catch the football that's been the evolution of brian robinson he can catch it he will catch it he'll be a part of what we've seen with kingsbury and effectiveness on the ground like kingsbury's pass rate in arizona was much lower than people thought he ran the football a ton and brian robinson was super effective he had a hamstring injury at the end of the year but this was a this was one of the biggest mvps of fantasy that you found late in your draft last season that you started plugging him in every single week he's been drafted in the late ninth round as the rb34 so um the efficiency went up in year two i like what i see on film every time i watch brian robinson he brings you the intangible factors of an every down back that coaches love clearly that got him play ahead of that spunkier antonio gibson that's gonna give him play in front of a older austin eckler and that's gonna give him an opportunity to catch the football they're still searching for a wide receiver too on this roster so to me brian robinson is the most boring late round running back that you should take on your team um and every comment that i've seen out of cliff kingsbury in this roster and the way they played in the preseason you know this has been very very good under cliff kingsbury when you're running back kenyan drake james connor 10 rushing touchdowns was the average brian robinson loves the end zone i was gonna say we know about cliff kingsbury is look he loves the route bush or when he has superstars like the under half he's got to keep a close to the line scrimmage and number two what we know about cliff kingsbury is his favorite play to call for sure of all time is when you get close to the goal line no trickery no shenanigans we are higher team than you we're gonna run up the mid it's gonna be that's what a handoff to that running back that you see and he's gonna go nowhere but straight yeah did it work no do it again it's gonna work this time did it work no it's gonna work this time you want to see how many at the next season we're gonna talk about brian robinson and how many carries inside the five he received simply because they'll do it three or four times in a row um we we live that cliff kingsbury experience and it actually ended up working i mean james connor had a lot of uh rushing touchdowns from inside the one if these guys are on the board same time mike are you are you looking brian robinson are you looking drone ford uh better offense versus if i mean if it's the two of them together i'll go with brian robinson they're separated by about a round so you can get both of these guys but brian robinson like drone ford you just i still think he's a rental but it's just how long does that how long before your landlord comes in here and evicts you from the building brian robinson should be the starter all year i think some of the years of my past when i look at values they're easy to pick their guys are gonna beat their adp but they're not really guys that necessarily help you win a fans football championship i worry a little bit with both these guys it's like i i totally think both these guys beat their adp they're better than running back 34 they're better than running back 40 but are they good enough to really like truly change the landscape and that's part of the roster construction i think these guys are good if you loaded up on wide receivers if you're going zero running back and then you can find guys that are just going to give you enough points to hold those positions while you dominate elsewhere um but that's why my value pick to jump on that i i am in full agreement i think like if you're riding the whole year and brian robinson for your running backs no that's not going to be strong enough to to win the championship but it's it's you need depth at the position and these are guys that help you in the meantime they're band-aids that you can get really these are not expensive at all either you just put the band-aid on they help you out for for a couple weeks throughout the season like maybe you're waiting on instruments running backs uh to turn into starters because of injury in the meantime while those guys are getting five opportunities of a game brian robinson and drone ford are going to be seeing 15 plus opportunities again yeah yeah it's an interesting discussion but it was neat to see last year that brian robinson didn't just have you know he had the high upside games to finish number one on the week to finish number two on the week to have some performances that were um because of the receiving work way higher than people expect yeah that was what was so surprising was his receiving work i just worry with austin eckler there now is he going to lose some of that it was a concern to me but gifts is a great pass catcher and he was part of that office last year and all the commentary has been so positive about his pass catching chops i look at it as neutral it's so funny because i don't feel like he came into the league as some like pass catching extraordinary talent but he has been used that way uh since he's been in the nfl and scoring through the year four touchdowns through the year but go on yeah my uh my value pick is a guy i do think can help you actually bring home a championship and he is undervalued in fact he's the lowest he has ever been drafted this is a breakout um this is a guy i've been off of the last couple of years uh from the boom bust potential it's the why the tight end for the san francisco 49ers george kittle you're gonna call him a wide receiver i was uh but i mean he's got enough receiving yards to be a wide receiver he is uh you guys have i think you guys have persuaded me towards kittle or taking another look at kittle over the last month or so we did the ranking show um mike i think you have him really high or maybe it's jason but i think you have me take another look and it was it was deucer than than i remember yeah i mean this is a guy who has been a top five tight end um in five of the past six years so it's like to say he should be a top five tight end this year seems like that's way in the range of outcomes and you know he's uh it worked it worked both ways in those years like to finish top five but also the ride was bad sometimes well and you were usually drafting him you know as the tight end two right you were chasing that two thousand one record break he had 215 fantasy points that year and then since then it's been 180 one a down year where you only play a game but then 162 170 170 so it's it's about your expectations of what george kills he's not gonna give you the 215 right unless i mean look he has paths yeah you get traded and he becomes more of a number two number three target this offense but even in 2023 last year he let all tight ends in receiving yards he had the most uh he had the most 20 plus yard plays um his yards per route run were the best in the league he's a super good player um and it's easy to label him as a boom bust and move on but i want to highlight two things uh his draft capital and his splits with brock purdy because that's yeah that's who he's playing with now he's got 23 games so far with purdy 12 of the 23 are 10 plus fantasy points 52 that's a pretty solid floor for a tight end um to give you a reference that is a higher percentage than dj moore who's wide receiver one last year in terms of 10 plus points yeah 10 plus points uh he had nine of those 23 with 15 plus points those are the weak winning performances from a tight end when you get 15 plus you're like oh man good luck dealing with that uh that is that's an awesome boom potential we've known he's got that only kelsey is better in the last two years of the percentage of real true weak winning performances and then if you look at the bus rate fewer than seven points real bad games he has 10 of those which sounds pretty bad 43 but the more i looked into it all the elite tight ends bust sandlaporta last year had 36 percent bust rate he had six games where he busted uh kelsey was at 27 so i think where he's going because his positional draft position you know used to be the tight end two tight end two tight end three he is the tight end seven right now he's being drafted oftentimes behind you know kyle pitts and other people that we just got name fatigue with uh with and he does have a path for superstardom should brandon not end up being on this roster which any minute he's probably a long-term deal it's not just that it's brandon you could be on this offense he gets hurt depot it's kind of his favorite thing to do is to miss games so that there are paths and it's well even uh cmc is like it's like a race to get ready for week one yeah and i think it's the fact that you are drafting him appropriately and not still chasing the dragon of 2018 i'm i'm with you jay i think that he's a great value yeah i um i think you guys have have kind of opened my eyes on kittle a little bit in terms of where i have him ranked and maybe making some tweaks so those are our individual value picks on today's episode following up those and uh one more reminder head over to megalobull.com uh or jason will explode he'll explode either way but uh really fun to come and play in the largest fantasy football league in the known universe uh megalobull.com has all the details on how the league is played and the rules and how many people make the playoffs and how the draft times go because we are drafting from the 31st of august through september 4th i believe the day before kickoff uh will be the last draft so lots of times to choose from to pick something that you prefer and the three of us are in uh i think different time slots so we got a chance to play with us even this gentleman never tells his draft slot yes okay where are you then okay boom roasted you're the scoundrel okay that's it we're done for now but don't worry brand new segment tomorrow you do not want to miss a big swap goodbye thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on twitter at the ffballers