Can Europe Go Nuclear?

On this week’s episode, we ask an urgent question: what happens to European security when American nuclear deterrence becomes optional? The New START treaty is lapsing, Russia is deploying exotic new capabilities like the Poseidon drone, and Trump is pitching a Golden Dome missile defense system that may or may not work. The old Cold War certainties are cracking.The episode hinges on a credibility problem that nobody really wants to talk about. France and Britain have nuclear weapons. But would they actually use them to defend Poland? But if geography matters—if standing next to your enemy with your own bomb is more convincing than relying on Washington’s promise to incinerate Moscow—then maybe European deterrence isn’t as crazy as it sounds. That’s the tension we’re exploring: does proximity create credibility, or is it just a dangerous illusion? And even more, do the British and French consider themselves “European” enough to launch on behalf of their neighbors, with whom they share major historical enmities? The history matters here. NATO tried something called the Multilateral Force back in the 1960s, a half-baked scheme to give Europeans a say in nuclear weapons without actually giving them the bomb. It failed. Now we’re asking whether Germany could “borrow” nuclear weapons without blowing up the NPT, whether Britain’s arsenal is big enough to scare Russia, and whether France would really risk Paris for Tallinn.We discuss the military realities, the NATO nuclear sharing arrangements that quietly persist today, and why the credibility of European deterrence might actually hinge on whether Trump really believes in the American nuclear umbrella anymore. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit globaltantrum.substack.com