Can Miami's Condo Market Survive Without Foreign Buyers?

Miami Condo Mondays™ is a live podcast hosted by Peter Zalewski of the Miami Condo Investing Club™ and veteran broker Jenny Huertas of CVRRealty.com providing an in-depth look at the latest residential real estate trends in South Florida.Recorded weekly in Greater Downtown Miami, the podcast offers a one-hour discussion on various real estate topics, including pre-construction condos, market trends and investment strategies.The hosts share their expertise, with Zalewski focusing on macro perspectives and Huertas offering micro insights from her on-the-ground experience.Tune in every Monday at 4 PM (EST) on the social media accounts of Zalewski and Huertas for insights on the latest trends in the South Florida condo market.In this episode of the Miami Condo Mondays™ podcast, the hosts discuss a new report from Zalewski that shows overseas passenger traffic through Miami International Airport is declining, raising concerns about the future supply of prospective buyers.In the first half of the year from January through June of 2025, MIA handled about 12.6 million passengers, which is down nearly 1.2 percent - or nearly 149,000 - compared to the same six-month period of 2024 when nearly 12.8 million passengers transited through MIA.If the current trend continues, this year would mark the first drop in international passenger traffic through Miami since the pandemic year of 2020, according to the newly released statistics tracking January through June from Miami International Airport.Bigger picture, a drop in MIA’s international passenger traffic this year would mark only the fourth time in 20 years that there was an annual decline.Since 2003, MIA’s international passenger traffic has only fallen on an annual basis in the years of 2020, 2014 and 2009.Even though the current pace through the first six months of the year suggests only a slight decrease, it is worth noting that projections coming into 2025 predicted MIA international passenger traffic would continue to grow by about 8.5 percent or more than 2.1 million passengers (both enplaned and deplaned).This year’s projected 8.5 percent increase is based on the 8.5 percent annual growth recorded in both 2023 and 2024.If MIA somehow meets the 8.5 percent projected growth rate this year, international passenger traffic would reach nearly 27.3 million rather than the current pace of about 25.2 million.International buyers are the lifeblood of the South Florida condo market where there are some 13,000 associations with more than 610,000 units in the tricounty region of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach.The fall in international passenger traffic comes at a time when the U.S. dollar has lost about 13 percent of its value against the Euro so far this year.Back on Jan. 1, 2025, one Euro returned $1.04 US. Fast forward to Friday, Aug. 8, 2025, one euro returned $1.17 US, according to the currency conversion website OANDA.com.A weaker U.S. dollar is typically a good thing for the South Florida condo market as foreign nationals - especially from countries in Latin America - have more buying power.Despite the falling U.S. currency, fewer foreign nationals are coming through MIA.It does suggest that condo developers and owners may have fewer people to sell units to at a time when the South Florida condo supply stands at more than 13 months.The months of supply is even greater in several key Miami-Dade County markets, including Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and Sunny Isles Beach.A balanced market is considered to have about six months of supply. Fewer months of supply suggests a sellers market while more months suggests a buyers market.We are pleased to offer a portion of our research for free to our newsletter subscribers and MiamiCondo.Club readers, providing a glimpse into our insights.An added benefit of the Club is that members receive discounts on all Miami Condo Correction Walking Tours™. Please visit MiamiCondoClub.eventbrite.com for a schedule of tours.