Can We Get To 2125? Humanity's Most Existential Threats Over the Next 100 Years

Can we humans make it to 2125? According to Gary F. Bengier, author of Journey to 2125, our species faces three existential threats over the next 100 years. His horsemen of the apocalypse are climate change, nuclear war and robots. No great surprises there. Where Bengier is more original is his stress on narrowing the manifold threats to humanity. Focus, focus, focus is Bengier’s species survival mantra. The ex-eBay technologist turned philosopher argues we're distracted by too many doomsday scenarios. His classic Silicon Valley solution: ignore the noise, solve these three core problems, and humanity might be able to "muddle through." But, as always in these cliffhanger narratives, there's a potential catch—nuclear war could destroy the resources needed to fight climate change, while robot factories in the business of building more robot factories could short circuit capitalism itself. Ooops. So there’s no guarantee that any of us - even (or especially) those Kurzweilian crazies who believe we can live forever - will squeak through to 2125. 1. The Three Threats That Actually Matter Bengier argues humanity faces three existential challenges over the next century: climate change, nuclear war, and mass unemployment from robots that build robot factories. His core message: stop getting distracted by "50 other things" and focus solely on these civilization-ending threats.2. The Dangerous Interconnection Nuclear war isn't just catastrophic on its own—it could destroy the economic resources needed to fight climate change. A limited nuclear exchange (losing "10 or 20 cities each") would consume so much wealth in rebuilding that climate action would become impossible, creating a cascade of existential failures.3. The Robot Revolution Will Be Different This Time While the current AI wave won't eliminate most jobs, Bengier warns of a second wave when AI-embedded robots become ubiquitous. When "robots build the robot factories that build the robots," the fundamental question becomes: who owns the robot factories? This could mark the end of capitalism as we know it.4. Nuclear Power Is Essential, Solar Isn't Enough Despite solar costs dropping 90%, Bengier argues we need nuclear power (especially small modular reactors) because renewables alone can't provide consistent baseline power. More critically, developing nations need accessible nuclear technology to avoid using their cheap fossil fuel reserves.5. Consciousness Isn't Coming to Machines Against Silicon Valley hype about AGI and conscious AI, Bengier (who studied philosophy of mind) argues machines lack "qualia"—the subjective experience of what things feel like. Machines can analyze an apple's 37 components but can't understand what an apple actually is. The "hard problem of consciousness" remains nowhere near solved.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe