Can You Bet on War? Inside The Dark Side of Prediction Markets

Text the ATB Team! We'd love to hear from you! What happens when people are financially incentivized not just to predict events but to shape them?On this episode of At the Boundary, GNSI Senior Director Jim Cardoso sits down with authors of a recent guest essay on prediction markets for the New York Times, Dr. Amy Nelson, senior fellow at the Future Security Program at New America and Dr. Sean Guillory, CEO of Betting Intelligence, to unpack one of the most unexpected emerging national security threats: prediction markets.Once considered a niche sites, platforms like PolyMarket and Kalshi have exploded into billion-dollar industries influencing politics, geopolitics, elections, and public discourse. But as these markets grow, so do concerns about insider trading and coercion.Drs. Nelson and Guillory explain how prediction markets are evolving beyond harmless speculation into systems that can incentivize real-world actions and create new vulnerabilities for democracies. The conversation explores Congress’s growing scrutiny, and why adversaries could weaponize these platforms in the future.Listen now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.Links from this episode:• "A Journalist Covered a Missile Strike. Then the Death Threats Started"- By Amy Nelson and Sean Guillory.GNSI on X GNSI on LinkedinGNSI on YouTubeAt the Boundary  from the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida,  features global and national security issues we’ve found to be insightful, intriguing, fascinating, maybe controversial, but overall just worth talking about.A "boundary" is a place, either literal or figurative, where two forces exist in close proximity to each other. Sometimes that boundary is in a state of harmony. More often than not, that boundary has a bit of chaos baked in. The Global and National Security Institute will live on the boundary of security policy and technology and that's where this podcast will focus. The mission of GNSI is to provide actionable solutions to 21st-century security challenges for decision-makers at the local, state, national and global levels. We hope you enjoy At the Boundary.Look for our other publications and products on our website publications page.