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Good morning, everybody. Welcome to the Tom Bill You Show Live. We had a wild weekend. If you were at all paying attention to international affairs, things got very crazy as Mexico is now under siege after the leader of one of the largest cartels in Mexico was killed in a raid by the Mexican government.
They were operating on US intelligence, so there's all kinds of drama that's still playing out there. Iran, also the center of massive drama, is apparently one week away from having enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. We've heard this story before, but Trump is giving them two weeks. I don't know.
Trump is certainly known for striking long before deadlines conclude, so we'll see exactly how this plays out and if that powder cake blows up. New York City Mayor, Mayor, Mom, and Donnie says you need two forms of ID to shovel snow, but zero to vote. That's fun. America's Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee says, it's cool.
If Israel wants to take over the Middle East, no worries. That did not go over well with, well, the Middle East. And so they are clapping back. Plenty of things happening in the world today, Drew.
Turning on the TV and seeing Mexico smoldering was pretty wild. The party is crazy. Like the practical effects they're using is wild. That is, I'm a sebumity field.
I'm not going to talk about that. It was bad. I just seen the gas station footage and I was like, oh, this is not real. This is AI.
I was waiting for the community. I was like, where's the community, guys? Seriously, where's the community? You know, please let there be a community note right now.
That's how I felt when it was old footage, but nonetheless, they were showing footage of they had a trader or something to the organization tied to a tree. And then they lit him on fire with a flamethrower. And there was something so jarring about watching the guys like trying to light the flame throw and it won't light. And so we asked like reach forward and thiddle with something and then it like sprays a bunch of flame on the ground.
And he's like, oh, I got it. And he like, dude, it's like humans are capable of such horrors. It's really insane. So again, that footage was old for anybody.
I'm not confused. I understand that. But just seeing all of the supercuts put together of people, things burning gas stations, being let on fire, Costco's burning down. I mean, it's really, really crazy.
If you guys haven't been watching, this one is worth paying attention to. They really are under siege from one of the largest and most dangerous drug cartels ever after their leader El Mencho was killed by the Mexican government. And he had a little bit of help from the US or they had a little bit of help from the US. Many analysts are saying that Mexico is now on the verge of civil war as the CJNG cartel is going on a rampage around the country within hours of his death yesterday.
CJNG unleashed massive coordinated revenge attacks across more than a dozen Mexican states, including Jalisco, Colima, Nairit, Temalipas, Guero, Baja, California, and Tijuana. There's a bunch more. Here are just some of the insane things that they've done so far. They've set up hundreds, hundreds of roadblocks by burning hijacks of billion cars, buses, trucks, semis, gunmen have forced people out of their cars at gunpoint before then just torching everything to paralyze highways and major routes.
They're digging up roads with backhoes. It's crazy. Like this is not your average run of the mill. Like we're putting up a blockade.
They're actually destroying the roads and making it impossible for people to drive. There's been mass arson as they've set fire to cars, buses, gas stations, convenience stores, bank branches, supermarkets, random-ass businesses, even full-on structures in cities like Guadalajara and Poit of Iarta. Smoke plumes are visible over beaches and skylines alike and tons of places just flat out look like war zones. Armed men have stormed into airport terminals at Guadalajara and Poit of Iarta, causing panic everywhere.
There's massive accusations, flight cancellations. Many tourists are just stranded sheltering in place. In fact, just off camera, we have a young man whose father-in-law is stuck and trapped, just absolutely wild. There have been attacks on security forces, sporadic shootouts, clashes with the National Guard and the Army, and one reported explosive attack on a National Guard base in San Juan de Los Lagos in Jalisco.
Some security personnel have been killed or injured in the follow-up confrontations. Exact numbers on injured and dead are still emerging, so we'll hold tight. But so far, there hasn't been any confirmations of mass civilian deaths. Thank God.
Unverified leak messages alleging allegedly coming from CJNG warned of all out war, including storming hotels and homes targeting civilians, unless the killers are handed over. They've made similar warnings here to the US saying if you're a border state, you can get ready for some acts of terror in your cities as well. So we'll see. Public transport has been suspended, schools have been closed, and stay-at-home orders are in place in Jalisco.
El Mencho was one of the most wanted drug lords on the planet. He had a $15 million bounty on his head, and from my understanding, that actually got collected. His cartel was responsible for a massive share of the fentanyl meth and cocaine that had been flooding into the United States. And this is the biggest cartel take-down since El Chapo was captured in 2016.
Now, one of the weird things about how this is all shaking down. In the firefight, four cartel members were killed. El Mencho was seriously wounded and died while being airlifted to a hospital in Mexico City. Now, I don't know if the footage is real, but there was supposed footage of El Mencho being airlifted.
He didn't look injured. Now, that doesn't mean he wasn't, but I certainly didn't see blood anywhere. So pretty wild. We'll see if this was, he was actually wounded in the firefight or if he was killed in custody.
Now, that's Tim Follhat City. We don't know the official reports or all just that he was mortally wounded in the raid and did not make it to the hospital. So we'll see. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitz of the US provided intelligence support to the Mexican government for the operation and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau called El Mencho one of the bloodiest and most ruthless drug kingpins and said his death was a quote, great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America and the world.
According to Reuters, a brand new US military led task force called the joint interagency task force counter cartel, very catchy name, played a direct role in the raid. This task task force was launched just weeks ago, run by US Northern Command out of Tucson, Arizona. Its entire purpose is to map out cartel networks on both sides of the border. It involves multiple US government agencies and according to a US defense official, it contributed to the operation that killed El Mencho just one week before the raid.
On February 15, 19 members of US Navy, Navy SEAL Team two arrived in Mexico. They came to the direct invitation of Mexican President Claudia Chaimba on despite all kinds of accusations that she's actually in bed with the Mexican cartels and show clip here in a minute for saying that she doesn't want to violate the, how could she call it? I can't remember she actually says a word like they're humanitarian rights, but it's pretty wild saying that she doesn't want to be violent towards the cartels hard to square with what just happened, but more on that later. The Mexican Senate voted to authorize the US's entry to help their state mission was to train Mexican Special Forces.
Multiple reports now indicate that the Mexican Army team that actually carried out the raid received specialized training from those seal instructors and according to sources, cited by Breitbart's cartel chronicles team, the seals confiscated the phones and communication devices of the Mexican soldiers that they were training because so many of them are suspected to have connections to the cartels, which is how El Mencho was able to avoid capture for 30 years. Okay, let's just play connect the dots for a second. February, 2025, the Trump administration designates CJNG, a foreign terrorist organization. Late 2025, the Pentagon launches a brand new counter cartel intelligence intelligence task force.
February 15th of this year, just very recently, nail seals, navy seals arrive in Mexico to train Special Forces on February 22nd. So what yesterday El Mencho is dead. The war on cartels just got really real. For me, this is Narcos, whatever season four.
So hit that subscribe button, boys and girls, stay abreast as things unfold. This is crazy. We'll see how fast it settles down, but I'm not super optimistic given Claudia Chime bombs, words of like, oh, we don't want to be violent. We don't want to hurt their feelings.
Like it's crazy, man. If your country is they are a paramilitary group operating inside of Mexico, I've seen a ton of footage of them showing off their weapons, showing how organized they are, their uniforms. I mean, this is crazy. We're hitting pause for a moment.
There's plenty more ahead. So don't go anywhere. Let's talk about money. You're leaving on the table.
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Okay. Invariaso. It's been a miso. But I'm not to kill without you.
Yes. So in Mexico, hold on. Hold on. Hold on.
Why not arrest them? Like the war doesn't have to be like the lady, like a guy takes on fire. I don't think you know, you know, he's put your hands up. No, if you're if you're wielding a flamethrower, whatever, and I tell you to drop it and you don't drop it, you get shot, not because you're a narco terrace and because we don't want to have rule of law, but because you're actively dangerous right now.
And that's how we deal with dangerous threats. But this, this is how I feel like when mom donny's like, we don't have any other choice other than to raise taxes and you're like, wait a second. How about lowering your spending? What are we talking about?
There's no other choice. She's making it sound like to interrupt them. The only option is to shoot them in the face. What?
Like look at what what's his name? Did? Bukelli didn't know Salvador. Now those jails are pretty full.
So they obviously just didn't go shooting people in the face like you're incarcerating people. And I get it. There is all kinds of interconnected people that are linked to the cartels that are actually running the government. And so there is very problematic things to deal with there.
But yeah, when people let politicians get away with like the absolute just bullshit of they're trying to narrow your options and make it make it seem like they're being completely reasonable and look, they all do it. They all do it. But I'm split because on one side, yes, Bukelli arrested a bunch of criminals, but I think the cartel in Mexico is in the most notorious cartel in like the Americas. And as we can see, they're emboldened to do whatever they want.
So her, I understand, if through the American lens, we could just do a rain on the house like training day and surround the house and everybody get your hands on the knees. But from the cartels perspective, there's no jail. There's no other there's like killer be killed. Like period, there is no negotiations.
This is war with them. So you're torn. What do you mean that she might be right? Because on her side, yes, there is no risk.
I'll just go in there and kill everybody. And then if I could go and designate one organization, a terrorist organization, I just go in there and kill everybody. Then who was to stop the next present to say civil rights organization that might have a bunch of guns, we just go in there and kill them. And it just makes a bad precedent.
So I understand the hesitation and not the I watch this movie, which is going there and bomb that house. There has to be a line. But to your point, yes, if somebody is walking on the street with the AK-47, yes, those people should get taken off. I don't know if you should go into the dancing hunt.
That is interesting. So I don't live in Mexico. So full disclosure, I am an outsider looking in. But if I put myself in the shoes of this is happening in the US and we have gangs, full blown cartels, whatever state this gets to, and they are doing some of the most horrific things, including at one point, they decapitated people, I think some politicians, but their heads on spikes.
They were killing kids. That's where I'm like, yep, we're going to have an ultra violent task force and they are going to come to your hideout and they are going to say put your guns down, put your hands up. And if you don't, they're going to shoot you dead in the face. Like at the end of the Tarantino movie where they get Hitler and they just like unload a clip in his face.
Yes, a thousand percent. If you're putting people's heads on spikes, bro, you cannot let that play on your country. That is some wild shit. And so listen, starting to comment, Tate on politics, I do realize like we all have a moral framework and mental map of how the world is, how the world ought to be.
And it is utterly fascinating to have to articulate mine. But you absolutely cannot let this kind of violence go where they know we can do whatever the fuck we want because people are going to back down. That's pure insanity. So now I don't know enough about the gun laws in Mexico, but what little I know it does seem like they have ultra restrictive gun laws.
And so that has led to the people who just completely flout the law who can afford to pay politicians off or police off to be the only ones with guns. And so now you create a scenario where you've got a populace that can't be armed going up against paramilitary groups that are not governmental. They are drug and sex trafficking, kingpins, who are extraordinarily well funded. And they're more than happy to go to war using modern military tactics from drones to high caliber weapons.
These guys, there's footage and assuming that this is an AI of them using backos. Imagine how fascinated this using backos to tear up roads so that it's like they're just isolating parts of the country. And so, yeah, I'm like, cool, where's your boot Kelly? Like you've got to get somebody in who's just like, this is absolutely something we are not going to tolerate and we're going to go ham.
And yeah, if you go in with that level of force, there is no doubt that it's going to create some peripheral problems, but nothing near my mental map of the world, nothing near what allowing narco terrorists to run your country does. That is way worse for my money. This is also the country that last political election, 37 politicians were murdered by the cartel. To your point of the, when the Mexican crumbler that call, he knows people's families and things like that.
So again, I think what she's saying is coded through civil rights, but is it where my entire family gets decimated, but I stopped the narco terrorists or hopefully they can just blow off some steam and this will blow over. And I feel like she's going to the blow over. That is so wild. To be 100% honest.
I feel like that's the human reaction. That's okay. So you read Claudia Shinebaum as very well intention. I'm only thinking of my people and she just knows the knock on effect of what that kind of ultra violent kickback will be that look, they're going to kill a few people.
They're going to burn some things down, but then it's going to re stabilize. Yeah. Wow. That's clear.
That's clear. Again, 37 like imagine, like you said in Bronta, America, so imagine if half the house was killed and then it's like me, having to go away with it. Like you have been very clear. I respect that neither of us are inside of Claudia Shinebaum's mind.
I will say if that is her read on the world, she is a moron of such unprecedented levels. I don't know how to make sense of that. And when you've got somebody who's like, bitch, I will cut people's heads off and put them on spikes. Who the fuck do you think you're dealing with?
Like these are, they're not animals. They're humans. Humans are far far more deadly than animals. So humans, when they break bad, they break so bad that you, you have to have a strategy for stopping this immediately.
I am utterly shocked that anybody gets to her position in power and does not understand that a bully will continue to ratchet up their paramilitary arm if they see that there is a gap they can exploit. And this is why I say you need the left and the right. The left and the right are evolutionary functions. They're not political functions.
The political manifestation is born of architecture of the human mind to have a society that can go to extraordinarily large numbers. You have to have this balancing mechanism. And what the left absolutely is apparently blind to is they will compassion spiral into death and suicidal empathy. And the right obviously has their own pathology over here and they become draconian.
And it's all fucking boot steps, goose stepping, hile hittlering, all of that. So I'm not saying that you can get away with one or the other. You need them both. So just as we need people that are compassionate as you fucking boot kelly your way to victory so that you do re-stabilize, it is insane to me that somebody looks at this and goes, we just, we have to be careful.
We don't want to violate any of the rights like Jesus Christ. Yes, you should do your best not to violate the rights for sure, but nobody has a right to torch everything to indiscriminately take over free ways. This is so crazy. Like I do not understand people that don't look at that and go, Oh, okay, well, cool.
We tried that and we've had however many decades of narco terrorism in our country. It's not working. We need to do something new. Just a repullip in the chat should Mexico go to war with the cartel.
Some people are there. Some might say, Drew, you stand for nothing. I feel like it's not a stand for nothing. There's two ways to approach this situation.
When we're looking at something like the cartel, historically, they have political figures, they have cops. You don't even have an army because half of the army that you would rattle up to go get the cartels are part of the cartel. So it's one of those things that I can understand her pause. Now, if Drew was president of Mexico, that is a tough toe to swallow.
I think you would have to do it just because as a leader, you can't say I can't do anything because of your point that you empower them. But at the same time, I can understand why she's not going full of Trump of like, get the drones is blow everybody up. Let's get it back. Let's push back right now.
You have to be strategic. You have to be surgical with this because one leak, one wrong move can lead to a blowback and political prisoners. It can lead to occupations of territories to your point. The populist actual citizens of Mexico can't own guns or anything like that.
So while we can beat tough guy and boots in our ivory tower, say, yeah, listen, the army go get them. Their push back can be OK. I'm confiscating this entire state now and now we're going to negotiate with ransom. You have a thousand hostages.
There's all these other things we have to think about as opposed to like, yes, bad guy. Let's go bomb them. I think that it's not as a straight yes or no. Yeah.
I mean, this is definitely worldview. And my worldview is that if you have somebody that is doing something as grotesque as what the cartels are doing. So, hey, if I can't get if I can't win you over by saying that drugs are bad, let me try to win you guys over with sex trafficking is bad. And the whole Jefri Fc thing is a failure of imagination on my part.
I just could not have fathomed that this is all playing out right now in real time. But if you start doing a deep dive on some of the way that women are traffic, like how they get sucked into it and then what happens to them afterwards? Absolutely horrifying. And so yeah, if I have an escalatory battle with a group that is willing to do that and they hunker down and they start arming themselves and going crazy, I'm going to be totally in support of a massive military push on my own soil to obliterate them.
It would be horrifying. But that is a tumor just like if somebody actually had a cancerous tumor that was going to take their life, I would say you got to do chemo, even though chemo is devastating for the body, but better than just giving up, tapping out, letting cancer run its course. And that feels directly analogous to what's happening here. They have to absolutely smash these guys into oblivion.
And yeah, we become very uncomfortable with state sponsored violence. We're right to be paranoid that it can spill over into being a problem for sure, but you can't be so paranoid about that that you let the people who are actively doing the thing you're afraid that the government will do. They're actively doing it fucking wild man. Like this is where trust that if this comes to the US, I will bang the drum for you got to root that out.
And if it gets violent, it gets violent. Oh, I was like, yeah, US one would play that US is a different animal. She should call the US she should be like a Trump. My hands are tied.
I trust that these people come as drone bodies. People who are going to stand us a little bit dear, dear President Trump. As the president of Mexico, I would like your help. I want a deeper economic relationship than we've ever had.
And I want the kinds of military protections that you have provided the world over since World War two. It clearly works. It's absolutely incredible. And I would like you to come into Mexico and help me clean all of this up.
We will work closely with you in a way that our Congress is totally supportive of. That may be information only great, but please lend us your technology at a minimum. If if possible, like we just sent Navy seals, apparently down to train them, some training would be wonderful. All of that, but help us do right by the millions and millions and millions of the vast majority of people in Mexico that want to raise their family and want to fall in love and they want to do red shit and they don't want to be looking over their shoulder because they might get killed.
So yes, law and order is necessary if we're going to economically continue to climb a ladder. And I've spent a reasonable amount of time in Mexico. It's awesome. So I don't know.
People have like a mental map of this like some like crazy backwater. This is not, but they have a problem. And if we want to help them keep climbing out, if Mexico wants to keep climbing out of that. Yes, asking for the US Alliance would be wonderful.
We share a border with them. That would be amazing. Chad said, um, Trump will be like, yeah, I hope you'll just become the 51st state. Listen, Trump is unhinged.
And so I certainly understand that. Take, um, at the same time, you've got somebody who is pliable. So whenever you're doing a negotiation, always look at your point of leverage. And if you have a point of leverage, which Trump that you know, he wants a legacy, he wants to be the peacemaker, but he wants specifically a legacy of peace through strength.
This is a guy. Look at what he's doing in Iran. This is what's happening in Iran is some of the craziest global politics I've ever seen in my life. This is wild, but this is exactly what he does.
He sends all of these carrier groups off your shore. He builds up the military presence in the most mohussive way possible. And then he sits across from you at a negotiating table and is like, I mean, he doesn't literally do this, but it's pretty close. He just like while he sits down, he puts his pens and pencils there and he reaches over and he pulls out of his bag, this big red button.
It's really fucking heavy. It's metallics and he sets it on the table. Makes it's really loud, like thumping sound clicks it open like super dramatically. And then the button just sits there.
And like another guy comes and leans over Trump's shoulder and like polishes. The red button jumps like, Oh, be careful. Don't put too much pressure on it. And that's how he negotiates.
Okay. So you've got this guy who you know gets down like that and he is very eager to help you just to show that America's the big swinging dick. And so yeah, do you leverage that to get what you need politically? A thousand percent.
So that would be the wise strategy, leverage his desire for that legacy, however bizarre it may be, uh, to get the help that you need and want for sure. And then you just say, ha, ha, ha, it's so cute that he says it'll be the 51st state. Obviously we'd never do that, but we do love being an ally. We do love, by the way, Mexicans are North Americans.
They're not central. They're not South. They are North Americans. And so for them to be like, let's be a strong United North America.
Fuck. Yeah. That would be dope. Um, or you just name a resort after Amina Trump to loom.
He'll say to a couple of trunks for that. Like that's all it takes. Taking a short break, but there's more impact theory after stay tuned. Okay.
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Now let's get back to it. Um, speaking of an Iran though, let's jump over there because we said everybody over. We know we said everybody over there. Um, man, the U.S.
Is clearly poised for a massive attack on Iran. If negotiations don't go the way that our beloved Trump wants Trump special on voice, Steve Whitkoff claimed Iran is roughly a week away from having enough and rich uranium to build a bomb. Now I'm a little skeptical. I won't lie since we've been down this road before.
This is exactly what caused the bombings that we did what last summer. Um, but Whitkoff confirmed on camera that he met also with Reza Palavi, who's the exiled son of the former shavi run at Trump's personal direction. Now for context, Palavi has been publicly calling for regime change and positioning himself as a transitional leader. If the current government falls, huh, why might that be?
So the same envoy that's negotiating a nuclear deal is also meeting with a man who wants to replace the government that Whitkoff is negotiating with. Now, Whitkoff also said on Fox News that the president, the president, Trump is curious as to why Iran hasn't, this is a quote capitulated. Now, that's not exactly the kind of talk you expect from two sides are supposedly negotiating, but welcome to the world when it is governed, nakedly by pure power politics. And that's the area that we're living in right now.
Everybody is realizing that, Oh, that's right. There is no parent. There's no adult in the room. It's literally just all of us.
It's Russia. It's China. It's the U S. It's Mexican drug cartels.
It's just a bunch of people with a whole lot of weapons holding each other at bay with a threat of ultra violence. Now, both sides are talking tough and each one on national television within hours of each other and basically told the world that they're ready for war. If the other side does not blink, okay, that's the negotiation that's going on. These massive carrier strike groups Iran talking big supposedly days away from having nuclear weapons.
Now, Iran's foreign minister went on CBS's face a nation and said Iran's nuclear enrichment program is a matter of national dignity and pride. He said Iran developed this technology on their own, which by the way is true, paid for it with 20 years of sanctions. Also true. They lost scientists to assassinations and survived a war over it.
And he made it very clear that they're not giving it up. This is a red line. Now, he also went on to say a diplomatic solution is still within reach. We'll see about that.
He said Iran is finalizing a draft counter proposal that could be ready in days. He said there are elements of a potential deal that could be better than the original Obama era JCPOA. And he announced that he expects to meet with Cough again this Thursday in Geneva for a third round of talks, which Oman's foreign minister confirmed just hours later is true. So you've got one side publicly using the word capitulate, basically surrender, give up and meeting with exiled opposition leaders.
And the other side saying this is about national dignity and they're not going to bow down. Those are the words Iran's president used on Saturday, but also saying, well, a deal is achievable and putting we're going to be putting a counter proposal on the table. Now, to really make this an unstable situation, the pressure inside of Iran is building from every direction. You've got university students in Tehran that are now holding fresh protests over the weekend.
These are the first significant demonstrations since the government's brutal crackdown in January that killed thousands of students or thousands of protesters. It's unknown exactly how many, but nobody seems to be claiming that it's under thousands in at this point. Students at Sharif University were reportedly chanting for the Supreme leader's removal once again, which is so ballsy. Can we take a second to be very impressed?
They just saw the slaughter of thousands of civilians that happened during the last protest and now they're back out there protesting again. I'll just say, God bless the young. It's wild. I'm at this weird stage of my life where I am so not really young anymore, but I still can still feel it.
I still remember, but it was like, and it really is a young man. The young are just not for play. So you need them. You want them, you celebrate when you see it.
And so shout out to all of the Iranian students that are protesting for a better life. Actually, I was reported on February 18th that there are no signs of breakthrough negotiations. Not what we want to hear. And so that's making military action look like the most likely outcome.
Boo. Senator Lindsey Graham, Freshoff meetings in Israel, the UAE and Saudi Arabia is publicly urging Trump, get ready to press ahead with strikes warning that voices counseling restraint are getting louder and that this is a narrow window for historic change. I actually don't agree. I don't disagree with that.
I think this is a narrow window for historic change, but I do think when you're talking this kind of military buildup, that restraint is always wise and that you want to be very prudent before you launch the attack. Now, they really are a week away from having a nuclear weapon. You can't back off that. I will say I'm totally on board with the idea that Iran having nuclear weapons is just a hard line and whatever you've got to do to stop that from happening, you've got to do Thursday's talks in Geneva will be the most consequential diplomatic meeting of 2026 so far.
That is for sure, maybe an even longer. So we're going to be watching this closely to see how it plays out. But also definitely tune in. Yeah, this is important.
How this one plays out, I think is going to echo for quite a while. There's the China connection. If we can actually get China, sorry, if we can get Iran to flip their regime by offering the kind of support and pressure that we're clearly doing so that the country can change from within, I think that that would be a huge deal for the Iranians in terms of being able to pull their country into the 21st century and then also stability in the Middle East would just be radically different. I wasn't able to verify enough of this ahead of time.
So it's rumored at this point, but it's rumored that there are countries within the Middle East that fully support regime change that they actively want to see it happen that they can feel an economically motivated Middle East on the other side of the current religiously destabilized Middle East that we have right now. And I don't expect everybody to agree with me on this, but I have said forever since I first started talking about what was going on in Gaza, the only solution is economic. And we don't think of economics as something placed on people from the top down. This is the most fundamental thing to the way that humans operate for hundreds of thousands of years.
If you want to understand that, this is going to be a weird example. I hope you can look past the sort of salaciousness of this and get to what I'm trying to point out is its architecture buried in the human mind. If you teach monkeys that grapes are a currency that can be exchanged, one of the first things that they exchange for is sex. Like they just immediately, it is so deeply ingrained in us to go, Oh, this thing is valuable.
Cool. I'm going to trade it for something I see. Great girl. Come through.
That's literally how it plays out. It is wild, but I'm trying to, I say that because it ties out deeply embedded. That structure is in the human mind to say, Oh, I can turn my time into a thing of value that I will exchange for another thing of value. That is how our minds are built.
And so once you understand that you realize we've got these two competing architectural elements, you've got religion, which is how we organize in larger and larger groups, how we can bump into somebody that we've never met before. They show the same symbols, they believe in the same things. We can just immediately convey value systems super rapidly. So incredibly potent thing that has allowed teams to become humans.
And then you have the other, which is we are economic units and we are constantly figuring out how to turn our time into an abstracting of value that can then be used as a currency to facilitate deep specialization in life. This other incredibly deep, incredibly foundational thing. And Iran is like this perfect collision. And what we have seen over and over and over is religion, tensile de tribalism, whereas economics creates a system that now facilitates inequality.
That is absolutely the point. It's very clear about that. It only becomes a problem when that becomes what we'll call toxic inequality, which is a real thing that has you have to do something to bastardize your system in order to get to toxic inequality. But nonetheless, if you can keep that in check, you create a system where people are maximally incentivized to innovate, to push, to work hard, to build things that the world wants so that they can capture more economic returns for their time.
It's the only thing that's pulled people out of poverty, boys and girls. So again, look at China, the most communist country on planet Earth. How do they pull hundreds of millions of people out of poverty? They did it by realizing, ah, we're economic units.
And yes, we must lean on an economy. And so, um, my hope is that we can help Iran get to that. But I really do think that that needs to come from within. Uh, we're there to run support.
Uh, and I really hope that we don't have to drop a whole bunch of bombs on them, because they're headed towards nuclear weapons. The China of it all is interesting because we have reports that China is actually providing Tehran with like live side of like images and stuff like that. So it seems like China is not at war with us, but they're giving intel to the person at war with us. They're kind of at war with us.
Yeah. Like there's, there's not even a kind of weird cold war with China. This is Russia 2.0. Uh, this is what a cold war looks like.
They have chosen sides. They are very, I mean, this is very interesting to see how people map this kind of Russia, uh, Iran all teamed up. Not sure North Korea feels a little bit like a hanging chat, but also they're a little too friendly friendly with them. China said many times that they don't want humanitarian things on the table with like the UN and stuff like that.
No constantly veto things that they believe, um, basically passes judgment on anybody's culture. So it's like, who are you to say that we can't put people in concentration camps? How dare you? Uh, so they then don't say that they have any beef with, you know, if Tehran wants to rule by an iron fist, then you know what it is.
Um, so seeing them group up is, uh, not too surprising, but it's certainly revelatory in terms of their, um, moral standards and what they believe is right. So yeah, but we are in a cold war with China. Let there be no mistake about that. They, they are your adversary.
They are no longer just your rival. Um, I'm going to get to the markets next, but what do you think? Do you think we actually bombs on the ground attack? I'm not talking Venezuela in the heat of the night moment.
Like do you think we actually have boots on the ground? Some type of like bombing or anything? You think this is just so you're saying, no, if you're taking Venezuela off the table, I'm saying we don't do it. If you're leaving Venezuela on the table, which is exactly what I think they're going to do.
I think they're going to go blow some stuff up. Um, if they know where, uh, Cumini is, I think they would go in and try to snatch them up. I think part of why Trump has been so slow is, I think he is absolutely rightly terrified about putting boots on the ground, doing something that then fucks up and then he really does just look unhinged. It's hard to attack him when he goes and like, think about how little scandal there really has been that he went in and kidnapped the president of a sovereign nation.
That's wild, but it works so well. And there were no American casualties. Everyone's like, well, it's hard to get people mad. So it's like, wait, are you saying my gas prices are going to go down and know Americans died and use cool technology that like sort of liquefied people's brand.
Yeah, I'm cool. Yeah. Let's look at this. Let's look at this.
Another guy. 100% of the 199 about the summer. That is so cynical and accurate. I love everything about it.
Uh, yes, that is exactly. I think what he's thinking. So he's obviously, I'm not a mind reader, but I love reading minds. Nonetheless, I think that Trump's math goes something like this.
Uh, we want the people to rise up. We would rather they do this. Um, I am going to get what I want out of Iran. I'm going to send, we've got more hardware there in the Middle East since we first launched an attack on Iraq, like in 2002 or whatever.
Uh, so this is massive. He is ready to go and he has shown. Yeah, I don't do this stuff for a bluff, man. Like, Bluffs only work.
And people also know that you're willing to play that card. And so yeah, I think he's ready to play the card, but he's not going to put boots on the ground. That would be insanity, uh, as you can get sucked in and the drum beat going into the midterms would just be, this is Iraq 2.0. So if you've got boots on the ground, that is all they're going to say over and over and over and over and over, that this is expensive for money printing.
Uh, he, this is their version of socialism and they wouldn't be wrong. And so it's like, yeah, this would be, that would be a catastrophic mistake. It'd be way too risky. Yeah.
Um, polymarket is heating up right now. The highest volume is 37 million says we're going to have a strike by February 28th, um, 19% chance. And then the one with the greatest percent chance, 73% of people saying it's going to happen at least before December 31st, 67% saying before June 30th. Um, so look at that.
June 30th on the volume. Yeah. It's crazy. Like on that March 31st is at 14 as well.
So that's on the heating up. So they're there. People are speculating. People are speculating.
Um, um, I don't know. It makes sense on paper, but again, I ran been a nuclear bomb away for a nuclear bomb a week away from a nuclear bomb since 1993. And we just did a victory. Like, yeah, V 52.
We killed a whole nuclear program. They're not going back to the stone ages, troubles high five and he said they were doing pushups and now it's like, oh yeah, they're back a week away. We need to go bomb them again. So it's, I just feel like, here's it.
So, uh, Iran is making it clear that they are pursuing nuclear enrichment. So there's no reason to believe that part is a lie. Now the week away from, I think Iran is in a weird position because if their own people believe that they're a week away, they're going to like button it up, tuck it in. They're going to be way less like cocky that we can overthrow these guys.
Um, so that if you say you are, then you invite the attack, but if you say you're not, then you are weak and you're now poised to have a whole bunch of people coming after you. So that's tough. Now I think that the, that politicians will say whatever they think will catch fire in your mind and truth be damned. Like I lived through the weapons of mass destruction thing and that clearly was just, it's a lie.
We're just going to repeat it enough that people know what to say to cocktail party when someone's coming at them. And so it's like that feels like the week away from nuclear weapons is just that just repeated enough. Uh, what are they really? Are they months?
Uh, are they a week, whatever, but like if we did all that we did in the summer and it didn't, I mean, it took them from being a week away to being whatever eight months away. And now we're just right back in the same position. And so if we're constantly in the position of, we've got to do all this stuff and it only ever sets them back like six to eight months, that's pretty crazy. That means that you have a far more systemic problem.
Uh, and therefore doing the things we're doing, it is not a long term solution. So how we work that out in the end, I don't know, but it seems like you have to break their will to do it. And I think the only way to do that is regime change, but that really, really needs to come from within, because if we're applying that pressure from the outside, it won't take, uh, we've seen this go a ride way too many times. Um, I have to shout out David in the chat.
David, I don't think that's your screen name. Um, he's saying it's all bullshit. They just don't have a central bank. That's why they want us to go after.
Is this the bankers? When we get myself to. So, um, so listen, do I think that central banks are the primary evil that allows for a lot of bad things? Yes, for sure.
But if I think about, okay, I'm going to put all of this at risk risk, getting sucked into a war also that we can install a central bank. It's far more compelling if they are trying to get the oil, like that seems like a way more believable thing. If you're doing this as a play to turn the Middle East into an economic hub, because imagine a world where you take another chip away from China in terms of cheap oil, you stabilize the Middle East where, I mean, even if you just need to believe that Trump is selfish, he's got a ton of business interests in the Middle East. And even just his son in law, like if you look at that, like, okay, I've got my son in law placed in the Middle East, if we can make the whole Middle East stable, if we can turn Gaza into the Riviera, the Middle East, if the UAE, basically, um, in cooperation with Saudi Arabia can run the table and it's just all now about economics, economics, economics.
I don't like going to the UAE, going to Saudi Arabia. I have been, I have boots on the ground in both Saudi Arabia, um, UAE and, oh, God, who is invaded? Oh, I cannot believe I'm blanking on a third country and you, you feel the wealth in a way. It honestly was, it was a gut punch being an American to be like, Oh, this is what wealth looks like.
It was wild. And so like Beverly Hills is the backwater, like shame, things didn't work out for you compared to like the UAE when dude, when you go through the airport and Dubai, it's like, holy, but Jesus, this is, it's unreal. I was taking photos of the airport. Just like, whoa, whoa, it was pretty crazy.
And so if you're Trump and you're thinking, cool, I've got my installed base and Jared Kushner in there. They are like, I forget the number, it's something like seven out of the 10 largest private equity firms are in the UAE. So it's coming out of Abu Dhabi and Dubai. Unreal.
So in terms of the accumulation of the world's wealth, people just have their eye there. And so if you're like, man, fucking Iran, will you stop fucking everything up? And so you're just like, all right, let's, let's get our oil. Let's fucking get somebody in there that will turn these guys into an investment hub.
Let's get this whole place going, forget all this theocracy bullshit. Like, let's just, this is going to be the place in fact. Yes. Yes.
OK. So drew. Let me, let me paint a picture for you. This, this is meant to be horrifying, but just honest.
This is going to get clipped out of context. I'm going to say it. OK. So what was Hitler's pitch?
Hitler's pitch was Ukraine becomes our wild West, America is doing as well as it is, because it's just expanding West and there's so many resources and all that and plus just land. Like people can go effectively for free, get a homestead, incredible. It's given the Americans like this spirit about them. That's incredible.
There's so much hope and it's just there, there are revived nation. We're going to do the same for Germany. We're just going to take over Russia, Ukraine and the Germans are going to be able to spill over and get their homesteads and all of that in Ukraine. It's going to be amazing.
At least if you can take it from just dry fucking desert and you just poor wealth, irrigation, grab all the oil and you go, OK, here's what we're going to do. We're going to transform this whole place into this gigantic economic tourism hub. If you don't believe me, look at some of the bets that Saudi Arabia is making it. So many of them are based on tourism and getting people there.
Mr. Visa part. I'm definitely out of my depth in terms of I don't know how real desalination is. And so maybe this part of what I'm saying is a bit far fetched, but Elon just keeps banging the drum desalination is cheap as shit and it's like once you get the right amount of energy going, you're good solar.
So you create safety in the region so they don't have to worry about terrorism. You are the capitals already being pumped into there. You just have this one destabilizing agent. You get that under control and you now build out the region and you turn it into this hub of tourism all eyes on us and they become the capital expansionary zone that we've been looking for.
And they're a little like OK with slave labor light. And so it's like you just import a bunch of people from other countries who by the way, like when you talk to their a ton of Filipinos there and you just ask them, like, hey, what are you doing here? Why'd you come here? It's a long way away from home.
And they're just like the opportunities here are incredible. And so I can make so much money here and send it back. So they're like, yeah, this is great. I'll do this all day long.
And so you're able to get you want to talk K-shaped like you've got the people at the tippy top ultra ultra ultra ultra ultra wealthy and then you've got people who are like for them, it's way better than where they were. And so they go there but they're at the bottom of the K-shape. They're perfectly happy to be there. Not an upper K of their perspective economy.
Correct. So it is again, this is not me going to bat for this. I'm sure people are going to say that that's what it is. And it is you get why.
Oh, this isn't about a central bank. This is about maybe something more crazy. The bankers are still getting their cut though. We can't act like the bankers are bankers.
Bankers run the world. But to your point, Trump is like, all right, I got the oil and cushion is going to have all his name on the paperwork. I'm going to get that money anyway. It's coming back to the house.
So Trump's going to get paid on both sides. America's going to love him. His coffee's going to get stuff. And then the central bank now is like, oh, you guys, you guys need a loan?
I can help you. Yes. Like, come on. Let me give one more piece of this puzzle to see if I can bring this all home.
I think if you map Trump as doing that, which enriches him, you were directionally correct, but you're missing a piece. There's a world that he wants to live in and he's trying to make that world come true. And that world is stable, safe, America first and economic prosperity. And so like, it's not just kleptocratic.
I won't say that there isn't some kleptocracy in the mix, but isn't just kleptocratic. So I mean, we'll see, but he's clearly planting trees under whose shade he will never know, right? And this guy is eighties. So we're almost.
So yeah. That's well. You did bring up my cuckooby. So let's jump into that story.
He was sitting down with Tucker Carlson and the America first agenda is lightly slipping. Let's jump into it. How much does it matter what Americans think? Well, it matters every bit what Americans think.
That's why Americans vote. It's why Americans have the opportunity to have free speech. We wanted to have that. OK, so what percentage of Americans support a war with Iran?
I don't know. Do you know? I do. I saw the numbers yesterday with it.
It was like 21%. OK. Is that enough to have a war with Iran? We don't live in a world where you have a poll taken to find out where there are policies should be a particular direction.
I thought you just said that. No, we care deeply about it. But on the other hand, do we make the decisions of foreign policy and even domestic policy based on what they like? We care to be about it in what sense.
If we're ignoring it, then in what sense do we care deeply about it? So your point, he likes, like, he doesn't know anything and he likes slowly. He's like, if you go on Tucker, Tucker has a trap for you. Like either you fit his narrative or he's got a trap for you.
And so if you're going to go on a show, bro, you better be ready. Mike Huckabee was not ready as you will see. Well, I think we care deeply when we see the. Is that the end of the clip?
No, no, wait, there's way better stuff. You know, Americans, they voted in this last election on the basis in part of the promise no more worse. So now we're about to have a word. It looks like 80% of people are against it in that range.
Let's say 70%, but nowhere near majority support for this war. And it's not right democracy, but it is a form of democracy. It's representative democracy. The ultimate form of democracy in our system and a republic is we're not a true democracy.
Right. It's a mediated deal. It'll be an opportunity for Americans to vote if they think that we've made the wrong policy decisions. I personally think the president is making the right policy.
But I guess it matters deeply what Americans think. And if the overwhelming majority are against it, in what sense does it matter? Because what I hear is it matters what they think, but it really doesn't matter what they think because you take it in. You certainly ingest that and then what do you want to ingest it?
Then you make you think you know why you. You know, this is not the other end of that. Ah, this is not the other one. So there's another clip.
I don't know if you can find it quickly, but where he presses my cuckabee on like, hold on, like, why do you think that they have a right to Israel and how much of Israel's land? Or how much of the land in the Middle East? Do you think they have a right to because in the Bible it says something like from the afraidies to the Jordan or something like that? Oh, here we go.
You got to hear that this was the one that I was like, yo, to Genesis, Genesis 15 says it's Abrams, pre Abraham's Abram receives from God the news that his descendants will inherit the land and you tell me as the as the theologian if I'm getting this wrong from. So Drew, I imagine you and I are going to feel very differently about this in terms of this is a classic example of two people looking at the same thing and we're going to see something very different for me because I believe these are books not inspired by God at all gods, not exist that this is just guys wrote some shit down and the way that that echoes through history. So I just interviewed Raymond Ibrahim about Islam and had a very similar sense of like, you know, the number of things that people do in the name of God that Tom Billy does not believe exists is crazy town. And this is one of those exchanges.
Now these two both believe in God, which is interesting to see them collide. But as people watch this, remember, you're in a frame of reference. You either believe God exists and that the book is revelatory of what God wants or you don't, but just like step into the other shoe for a minute as you hear it or at least like go back and forth of, okay, what does it sound like if I don't believe and what does it sound like if I do believe because this, this is, yeah, wildly different depending on which one of those two camps you're in. Okay, with that.
The Euphrates to the Nile. I think that's right. And that would include basically the entire Middle East that would be the Levant. So that would be Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, it would also be big parts of Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
I mean, I thought you would go that far. I mean, it would be a big piece of land. But here's the point. It would be a lot of places that are now countries that this particular area that we're talking about now Israel is a land that God gave through Abraham to a people that he chose.
It was a people, a place and a purpose. We can look at it that way. Christian Zionism. I want to go back because that's where we started.
I'm not going to let you off. I feel about this the way that I would expect people to feel about if a thousand years from now or two thousand years from now, people were like, okay, remember what Voldemort did and Hogwarts was given to you like, what is happening? People already do lending train stations. It's a wall trying to find a secret test.
So I keep going because he says something outrageous here coming up because you have three times that God gave this land to this people. And so it is entirely fair for me with respect to ask what land you're talking about because I just read Genesis 15 as I have any time. Good line of question. And that land, I think it says from the Nile to the Euphrates, which is once again, basically the entire Middle East.
So God gave that land to his people, the Jews, or he didn't. You're saying he did. What does that mean? Does Israel have the right to that land because you're appealing to Genesis?
You're saying that's the original deed. It would be fine if they took it all. Yo, damn. I mean, hey, he said it.