Cattle Market Guys - Tuesday Check In 8-25-2026

Trump's surprise 90-day tariff waiver just cracked open the door to 300,000 metric tons of imported beef, and cattle producers are furious—even as feeder cattle prices are already sliding hard and fast. Brock and Jim break down why this move eerily echoes a 1986 trade decision that hammered feeder prices before tight domestic supply forced a rebound, and question whether history is about to repeat itself. This Tuesday Update covers the full market picture: 500-549 weight steers down over $22 in a month, 600-649 weights forecast to keep sliding before stabilizing by mid-September, and a deep dive into the tariff waiver's political and economic fallout, including how producers' share of the retail beef dollar has collapsed from 63 cents in 1980 to just 37 cents today. Brock and Jim also unpack the Mexican border reopening for cattle imports, complicated by rising screwworm detections in Chihuahua and Sonora that could delay the anticipated 150,000-head import estimate. The episode closes with a look at July's cattle marketings—the lowest since 1996—Tyson's plant closure in Joslin, Illinois, and what historically tight supply combined with packer restructuring could mean for leverage shifting back to producers this fall. Jim draws on his own experience from the 1996 drought and the 1986 import policy shift to frame today's headlines in historical context, offering listeners a grounded perspective on where these markets may be headed next.