Cattle Market Guys - Week Wrap Up 7-3-2026

The Trump administration just dropped a bombshell: USMCA will not be extended, triggering a 10-year wind-down clock that has farm groups sounding alarms across the agricultural sector. With feeder cattle prices hitting historic highs and the cattle herd now the tightest since the 1950s, this week's Cattle Market Guys breaks down why the market is bracing for impact before the data even arrives. Brock and Jim open with a deep look at current feeder steer pricing, showing steady climbs across weight classes and a sharp jump in futures contracts over just five weeks. They then dive into the USMCA wind-down announcement, examining the fractured US-Mexico-Canada dynamics and new tariff-rate quota legislation targeting live cattle, beef, and lamb imports. Jim draws a compelling parallel to the 1994 NAFTA rollout, reminding producers that fear-driven herd decisions often backfire before real trade data emerges. The second half tackles supply fundamentals, unpacking the June Cattle on Feed report showing feedlot inventories rising for a second straight month, even as total beef production is projected to fall 4.5-5% in 2026. Brock and Jim explain why more cattle in feedlots doesn't mean more beef supply, and how the tightest cattle herd since the 1950s is squeezing everyone from jerky producers to retail meat counters. It's a data-driven, historically grounded conversation about navigating uncertainty without panic—essential listening for cattle producers watching both trade policy and herd economics collide this summer.