CBN Friday Special丨China's GDP rises 2.5% year-on-year in H1

Hi everyone. I’m Stephanie LI.大家好，我是主持人李莹亮。It’s a big day for Chinese economy today, as the world’s second largest economy officially releases economic performance in the first half of the year. Now let’s dig into the numbers.China's economy grew by 2.5 percent in the first half of 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.Figures released by the NBS showed value-added industrial output, a gauge of activity in the manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, grew by 3.4 percent compared to the same period last year.Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending, fell by 0.7 percent compared to the same period last year, while in the second quarter, they declined 4.6 percent from a year earlier.Fixed-asset investment – a gauge of expenditures on items including infrastructure, property, machinery and equipment – rose by 6.1 percent compared with a year earlier, while in the second quarter, it jumped 4.2 percent year-on-year.China’s consumer inflation in the first half came in at 1.7 percent, while production inflation rose 7.7 percent.China's potential economic growth rate is estimated to stand between 5 percent and 6 percent, which is still a global medium-to-high range especially considering the sheer size of China, reflecting the huge potential of the world's second-largest economy, NBS officials said. The country has set this year's annual GDP goal at 5.5 percent.But it’s no easy task. In the second quarter of the year, China's GDP grew at 0.4 percent, according to data from the NBS. “As the economy expands, constraints from labor and resource environment will also be amplified, which means the potential GDP growth rate will edge down gradually,” the NBS said.The foundation for sustained economic recovery is not stable, as the impact of domestic Covid outbreaks “hasn’t been eliminated entirely,” the NBS said in a statement accompanying the release of the data. It warned of “rising stagflation risks” in the world economy.However, China’s gap with developed economies in terms of GDP per capita also indicates huge room and potential of future growth. Official data show that China’s GDP per capita has exceeded $10,000, but still lags significantly behind when compared with an average of $40,000 in developed countries. Looking ahead, with strong resilience and long-term positive economic fundamentals, China’s economic activities in the second half is expected to improve and maintain recovery momentumdespite external and internal uncertainty, with a number of policies aiming to stabilise growth, easing of epidemic situation and the further leveraging of the country's strong governance ability. For instance, in addition to a rebound in investment and factory activity, innovation-driven development will also continue injecting new dynamics into China's growth.In the first half, China's high-tech manufacturing added value surged 9.6 percent, outpacing average industrial added value growth of 3.4 percent. Production of new energy vehicles, solar batteries and mobile telecom base station equipment rose 111.2 percent, 31.8 percent and 19.8 percent year-on-year, respectively, NBS data showed. More efforts will be made to implement a package of stimulus policy measures and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range.上半年中国经济成绩单来了！7月15日，国家统计局发布上半年经济数据。初步核算，上半年国内生产总值实现56.26万亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长2.5%。其中，一季度经济增长4.8%，二季度经济增长0.4%。今年以来，乌克兰事件、国内疫情多点散发等超预期因素对经济冲击明显，3月以来经济下行压力加大。不过，我国高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，加大宏观政策调节力度，推出稳经济一揽子政策措施，疫情反弹得到有效控制，国民经济实现企稳回升。考虑到4月份经济指标普遍下跌、5月部分指标仍然维持负增长，二季度顶住压力实现正增长，成绩得之不易。6月经济加快回升，是二季度经济实现正增长的主要原因。数据显示，6月主要经济指标均实现正增长，前期受疫情影响较大的消费、服务业指数均由负转正。比如，6月规模以上工业增加值增速回升至3.9%，6月服务业生产指数同比增长1.3%，6月份社会消费品零售总额同比增长3.1%，6月固定资产投资增速回升至5.6%，6月进出口总额增长14.3%，6月城镇调查失业率回落至5.5%。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，二季度受国际环境复杂演变，国内疫情冲击等超预期因素影响，经济下行压力明显加大。二季度我国经济克服多重压力挑战，主要指标止住下滑态势，实现企稳回升。稳经济一揽子政策，以及围绕促投资、稳就业等增量政策出台，是二季度经济顶住压力企稳回升的重要原因。基建投资连续几个月持续加快。当房地产投资仍在下行通道时，为了更好扩大内需，扩大基建投资成为重要抓手。1-6月份基建投资同比增长7.1%，相较1-5月份加快0.4个百分点，相较1-4月份加快0.6个百分点。下半年经济发展态势如何演绎？上半年我国经济增长2.5%，成绩来之不易。要实现全年5.5%左右增长目标，这要求下半年我国经济增长8%以上，这样的增速远高于我国经济潜在增速，实现难度较大。付凌晖表示，关于中国经济潜在增长率，很多机构和学者都进行了测算，多数结论认为，现阶段中国经济潜在增长率大概在5%-6%之间。未来随着中国经济体量增大，劳动力资源环境约束增强，潜在增长率水平也会逐步降低。从全球范围来看，5%-6%的潜在增长率仍然处于中高水平，中国经济未来发展有巨大潜力。需要指出的是，国际环境复杂严峻，叠加世纪疫情，全球化发展遭遇逆流，国内经济结构调整转型处于关键时期，我国经济增长达到潜在水平的难度在加大。付凌晖直言，当前，世界经济滞胀风险上升，外部不稳定不确定因素增加，国内需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力犹存，实现全年经济增长预期目标有挑战。但也要看到，我国经济长期向好的基本面没有改变，经济韧性强的特点明显，宏观政策调节工具丰富，推动经济持续恢复具备较多有利条件。从下半年情况看，随着高效统筹疫情防控和经济社会发展，有力推进稳经济的各项政策措施效应不断显现，我国经济有望继续回升保持在合理区间。下阶段，要抓住经济企稳回升的有利时机，统筹好疫情防控和经济社会发展，抓好一揽子稳定经济政策措施落地见效，夯实经济恢复基础，保持经济持续健康发展。