Central Asia between hunger, the atom and war

This week’s episode looks at two structural pressures shaping Central Asia’s future: food insecurity in Tajikistan and energy strategy in Kyrgyzstan, before turning to the wider regional impact of the war in Iran.We begin in Tajikistan, where President Emomali Rahmon has warned of unprecedented food price rises. His explanations point outward, to climate change and global instability, but the domestic picture complicates that narrative. At the same time as calling for food security, authorities continue to push farmers toward cotton production.Reporting suggests this is not voluntary: quotas and administrative pressure leave farmers little room to prioritize food crops. The result is a system that prioritizes exportable raw materials over local consumption.That trade-off looks increasingly untenable in a country where malnutrition remains widespread and infrastructure constraints, especially lack of storage, undermine food stability. The contradiction is stark: rising demand for food alongside policies that disincentivize its production.The second story turns to Kyrgyzstan, where officials have floated a referendum on building a nuclear power plant. There are no concrete plans yet, but the signal matters. Electricity demand has risen sharply, while generation has barely kept pace, leaving a widening deficit covered by imports. Hydropower still dominates the system, but its seasonal volatility and exposure to climate risks make it unreliable as a sole backbone. Nuclear is being framed less as a replacement than as a stabilizer, baseload capacity to smooth out fluctuations.In our interview slot, we speak with Shakhlo Kamaladinova, Central Asia Coordinator for the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. She explains how the war in Iran is affecting Central Asia not geographically, but structurally. Trade routes through Iranian ports remain critical, and disruptions are already feeding into higher insurance costs, logistical uncertainty, and long-term strategic recalculations. While alternative corridors exist, they lack the flexibility to fully compensate. The result is a region increasingly aware of its exposure, but not yet equipped to escape it.Links· Shakhlo Kamaladinova’s article at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation: · President Rahmon’s speech in Sughd: https://president.tj/event/news/55134· RFE/RL Tajik service report on Rahmon’s speech: https://www.azattyqasia.org/a/prezident-tadzhikistana-predupredil-o-bespretsedentnom-roste-tsen-na-prodovolstvie-v-etom-godu/33722989.html· Asia-Plus, April 2025, on farmers forced to destroy wheat for cotton: https://asiaplus.news/2025/04/18/v-rajonah-tadzhikistana-mestnye-vlasti-unichtozhayut-posevy-psheniczy-zastavlyaya-dehkan-sazhat-hlopok/· Asia-Plus, February 2025, on cotton coercion: https://asiaplus.news/2025/02/25/fermerov-tadzhikistana-zastavlyayut-sazhat-hlopok/· Avesta.tj, on cotton sowing campaign launch: https://avesta.tj/2026/03/27/v-kanibadame-nachalas-kampaniya-po-posevu-hlopka/· World Food Program, Tajikistan food security data: https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000172887/download/· Eurasian Development Bank, warehouse infrastructure study: https://eabr.org/analytics/special-reports/warehouse-infrastructure-in-eurasia-the-opportunity-of-the-decade/· Interfax on Kyrgyzstan nuclear referendum proposal: https://www.interfax.ru/world/1081927· Rosatom, RITM-200N memorandum with Kyrgyzstan: https://rosatom-energy.ru/media/rosatom-news/rosatom-i-kirgiziya-dogovorilis-o-sotrudnichestve-v-sooruzhenii-atomnoy-stantsii-maloy-moshchnosti/ Get full access to Havli - A Central Asia Substack at havli.substack.com/subscribe