China Risk Shared Confessions by Hugh Hendry & Tom Roderick

Send us Fan MailHedge fund manager, Hugh Hendry, again invites his former colleague, Tom Roderick, who manages macro at Trium in London, to review the revelatory and impending bust of China's legendary Evergrande Property. Macro hasn't been seen in Chinese waters for almost a decade. A strong currency with a positive carry and a stock market seemingly impervious to shocking state interventions has ensured a lack of willing naysayers. The Acid Capitalist, Hugh, and Tom, explains how China's property companies were the safest stocks in the global sector owing to their ability to transfer risk quickly. That the least risky companies are now in jeopardy does not bode well especially as Chinese property, relative to household wealth, is 4x greater than in the US. The boys consider a bull market in fear where sovereign Chinese bonds will supplant property as the de facto collateral position. They can conceive of a steeply inverted yield in a land more accustomed to wearing flats and they ask whether flaunting opulence and the mania for luxury may not sit well with the modern creed of common prosperity. Buckle up! This is macro conjecture for grown-ups.Chapters:00:00 Shared Confessions China's Geometric Risk Taking02:45 Why Macro didn't Short the Red Lines05:15 Why the $ is red Cabbage in Beijing10:55 China Property Market was Risk Free15:35 Fechner and the Geometry of Chinese GDP Growth17:25 Why Now ? And the Grapes of Wrath21:30 FX chart, Mad Max Leverage Internal or External ?26:45 Everything is Macro32:40 Is there a China Macro Trade with no Tears for Fears?37:35 China the Land Of Flat Yield Curves40.45 Stay At the Money with Your Strikes42:00 Apathy is the Catalyst for Perplexing & Engaging Trades46:15 Common Prosperity Questions Luxury ValuationsSupport the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes  ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐  Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!🧢 Hats & Merch 📸 Instagram 🐦 Twitter / X📩 Substack👂Listen and 🔥 Subscribe📺 YouTube🎧 ...