China seeks spheres of influence as Trump abandons strategic consistency

Park Won-gon The author is a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University. "We can't continue to allow China to rape our country." "Together, we have the chance to create a future of greater prosperity, cooperation and happiness." Both remarks came from U.S. President Donald Trump. The first was delivered during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, while the second came during a toast at last week's U.S.-China summit. Trump's China policy, which has swung sharply between extremes, may now culminate in effectively elevating China to equal status alongside the United States, forming a de facto "Group of Two." Chinese President Xi Jinping was unusually direct in addressing Washington. During opening remarks at the summit, he invoked the "Thucydides Trap," the theory that war often erupts when a rising power challenges an established hegemon. According to Graham Allison of Harvard University, the current U.S.-China rivalry represents the 17th historical case of the Thucydides Trap, with roughly 75 percent of previous cases ending in war. Xi's decision to raise the concept directly in front of Trump carried a clear message: avoiding conflict requires the United States to recognize China as an equal partner. In effect, Xi was demanding that Washington stop fearing Beijing's rise and formally acknowledge its enhanced status. Xi's dinner remarks were equally revealing. He stated that "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and making America great again can go hand in hand." The "great rejuvenation" refers to China's long-term strategy, often linked to the "Chinese Dream," which aims to restore the country to a central global position by 2049. MAGA, by contrast, increasingly reflects a form of selective isolationism centered on domestic priorities and reduced involvement in regions lacking vital U.S. interests. The Trump administration has translated this into preserving overwhelming U.S. influence across the Western Hemisphere. Xi's remarks suggested a broader strategic vision: a division of global influence between the United States and China. Under such a framework, Washington would dominate the Western Hemisphere while Beijing would secure primacy in Asia. The idea echoes Xi's repeated statement since 2013 that "the vast Pacific Ocean is large enough to accommodate both China and the United States." Implicitly, the proposal amounts to a division of spheres of influence, with the United States overseeing the eastern Pacific and China asserting dominance over the western Pacific. China has framed this approach as a "constructive strategic stability relationship." According to the Chinese foreign ministry, the concept envisions stability based on cooperation, manageable competition, controlled disagreements and a commitment to peace. This marks an evolution from Xi's earlier concept of a "new type of major-power relations," introduced in 2012. That framework also treated the United States and China as equals, but largely downplayed rivalry while emphasizing mutual respect and shared interests. Washington never fully accepted it. The new formulation differs in openly acknowledging strategic competition and seeking to manage it rather than denying it. Unlike the earlier proposal, it was explicitly referenced during a formal summit and included in Chinese foreign ministry statements, increasing the likelihood that it could shape real-world diplomacy. While Beijing arrived at the summit with a coherent strategy focused on establishing equal status with Washington, the Trump administration appeared to lack a clear China strategy altogether. There was little evidence of a consistent framework for managing relations with a rising China. Instead, the summit was shaped by domestic political pressures, including economic strain linked to the Iran war, falling approval ratings and Trump's highly personalized approach to international relations. According to polling analyst Nate Silver, Trump's approval rating fell to 3...