CHPT Stock: First Op Profit + Guide Beat Q1 FY2027

CHPT Inc. Q1 2026 earnings breakdown - conversational walkthrough with a price-aware verdict and Wall Street consensus comparison. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5 conviction, MODERATE) - CURRENT @ $7.48 - HOLD - BUY below $5.50 with $4.40 stop - AVOID above $11.00 TRIGGER: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrows below ten percent of revenue for two consecutive quarters AND FY27 full-year EBITDA breakeven path reaffirmed WINDOW: Through Q3 FY2027 earnings (early December 2026) TRACKER: charged-alpha.com/calls/CHPT WALL STREET CONSENSUS - Ratings: 0 Strong Buy / 1 Buy / 5 Hold / 1 Sell / 0 Strong Sell - HOLD - Median 12-month price target: $9.36 (range $5 - $14) - Charged Alpha vs consensus: IN LINE THESIS CHPT is the largest networked EV charging operator in North America, finally putting back-to-back-to-back quarters of growth on the board while narrowing the adjusted EBITDA loss four hundred basis points year over year. Bull lever: Express Solo six hundred kilowatt is the world's fastest standalone DC fast charger - a clear product-leadership claim. Subscription revenue compounding seven percent at forty percent mix improves quality of earnings. If adjusted EBITDA gets to breakeven within four quarters, the multiple expands from a fraction-of-sales floor. Key risk: Free cash flow is still MINUS thirty eight million and total liquidity of two hundred and forty six million is finite. Another year of this burn rate consumes the revolver. Reverse-split share base of roughly twenty five million diluted means any equity raise hits hard on a per-share basis. QUALITY CHECK - Management quality grade: B- (Rick Wilmer took over in late 2023 and has stabilized the business - three quarters of growth, narrowing EBITDA loss, and a marquee product launch in twelve months. But the company has not delivered the EBITDA breakeven that has been promised repeatedly, and dilution risk is meaningful on the current burn.) - Earnings quality grade: C+ (Subscription revenue compounding at seven percent and now forty percent of mix is genuinely higher-quality. Gross margin at twenty seven percent leaves no room for error. The cash conversion is poor and stock-based comp at thirteen million is one third of the cash burn.) CHAPTERS 0:00 Hook 0:12 The Print 1:33 The Trend 2:47 The Segments 3:50 The FCF Bridge 5:03 Guidance & The Narrative Diff 6:17 Peer Dot-Plot 7:21 Management & Earnings Quality 8:37 S8a_Call 9:29 S8b_Call KEY METRICS - Q4 2025 - Revenue: $4,713M (+73.4% YoY, +8.3% vs est) - EPS GAAP: ~$0.01 (first profitable quarter; vs -$0.11 est) - Gross margin: 17.53% - Operating margin: +1.47% (first positive operating quarter ever) - FCF: negative on a trailing-twelve-month basis (~-$2.9B) - Cash & ST investments: ~$6.3B; net debt near zero - EV/Sales: ~1x vs LI ~0.7x, TSLA ~8.5x BRAND HIGHLIGHTS - CHPT premium brand: core SUV and sedan revenue - ONVO: mainstream family marque, primary 2025 volume driver - Firefly: compact model, early European deliveries - Power & Services: battery swap network and energy GUIDANCE - Q1 2026 deliveries guided 72,000-75,000 vehicles - Management targets full-year operating profitability for 2026 DATA SOURCES - FMP (financialmodelingprep.com) - CHPT Inc. Q4 2025 / FY2025 Results (filed 2026-03-10) DISCLAIMER This is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Not financial advice. Charged Alpha does not have a position in CHPT. Do your own research before any investment decision. #CHPT #CHPTInc #ChinaEV #electricvehicles #batteryswap #earnings #investing #ChargedAlpha