Charged Alpha Stock Encyclopedia

Andersen Group (ANDG) Q2 2026 — Andersen released after the close on Wednesday August 12 and held its call at 5:00pm ET, so Thursday August 13 was the reaction session. The shares OPENED at USD45.37 against a USD50.00 prior close - down 9.26 pct - traded as low as USD44.11 (-11.78 pct), then were bought back all session to close USD48.30, only 3.40 pct lower, on 854,720 shares (2.4x the 20-session average). By August 17 they were USD49.00. Andersen Group is the San Francisco tax, valuation and legal advisory firm that IPO'd on December 17 2025 - 2,690 people, 28 offices, 13,500 client groups. Q2 revenue was USD217.7M, up 23.7 pct, with adjusted net income of USD39.0M up 38.8 pct and a 21.1 pct adjusted EBITDA margin. It also reported a USD10.1M GAAP net loss and a USD0.09 diluted loss per Class A share. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE BUSINESS IS GOOD, THE PRICE AND THE STRUCTURE ARE NOT) — base-case value ~$37.26 vs ~$49.00 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD37.26 against the USD49.00 close, -24.0 pct. Bear USD24.27 / base USD37.21 / bull USD50.36, weighted 25/50/25 on 2027 adjusted EBITDA less the USD30.1M of equity pay that recurs. - THE ANGLE: the growth is real and organic, but Class A owns 12.0 pct of it. 13.6M Class A shares against 99.4M Class B, which carry ten votes each and NO economic rights. One holder keeps 98.1 pct of the vote. - THE GROWTH IS NOT BOUGHT: acquisitions contributed USD5.5M of the USD41.7M revenue increase, so organic growth was 20.6 pct and accelerated from 15.7 pct in Q1. All four service lines grew; no one-time items. - THE EPS BASIS: the data vendors carried USD0.34; the income statement prints USD(0.08) basic and USD(0.09) diluted on 13,261,049 weighted-average Class A shares. USD0.34 is adjusted net income over all 113.0M units and appears nowhere in the filing. - THE ADD-BACK: USD48.3M of non-cash equity pay, 22.2 pct of revenue. USD42.3M is the December reorganisation vest and does run off; USD6.0M is LTIPs, RSUs and stock issued to acquired firms - all three were ZERO a year ago. - THE CASH: six-month operating cash flow was USD65.8M (up 6.4 pct on revenue up 19.4 pct) and free cash flow USD52.7M, half the USD106.3M of adjusted net income. USD132.5M went out to the pre-IPO owners in distributions and note repayments. - THE GUIDE: revenue reaffirmed at USD980M-USD1,000M (about 18 pct growth) but adjusted EBITDA at USD225M-USD250M, a 23-25 pct margin against 27.1 pct actually delivered in 2025. And on August 17 insiders registered 4,284,457 Class A shares for sale. What to watch: UP: a full-year adjusted EBITDA guide raised above USD250M while revenue growth holds in the high teens; receivables growing slower than revenue so free cash flow converges on adjusted profit; or a Q3 print (the seasonally large one) that beats the margin guide. DOWN: the August 17 secondary pricing below USD49.00; receivables above USD189.4M again; or adjusted EBITDA margin landing at the 23 pct bottom of the guide against 27.1 pct delivered in 2025. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Octave Intelligence plc (OCTV) Q2 2026 — Octave issued the release at 13:00 CEST (07:00am ET) on Wednesday August 12 and held the call at 8:00am ET, so August 12 was the reaction session. The shares OPENED at USD16.66 against a USD19.72 prior close - down 15.5 pct and the low of the day - then were bought back all session to close USD19.08, only 3.25 pct lower, on 7,793,542 shares (6.9x the 20-session average). By August 17 they were USD18.02. Octave Intelligence is the industrial software business Hexagon AB spun off on May 22 2026 - design, build, operate and protect software for asset-intensive industries and the public sector, run from Madison, Alabama. Q2 revenue was USD398.4M, down 3.6 pct, with ARR of USD1,143M up 7 pct, free cash flow of USD93.5M up 7.6 pct, and adjusted EPS of USD0.36 against a USD0.30 bar. It also booked USD2,134.7M of non-cash impairment charges. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE ACCOUNTANTS, THE MARKET AND THE MODEL ALL AGREE) — base-case value ~$19.60 vs ~$18.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD19.60 against the USD18.02 close, +8.8 pct. Bear USD16.22 / base USD19.39 / bull USD24.41, weighted 25/55/20 on FY27 free cash flow of USD345M discounted at 9.25 pct over five years, fading to 2.25 pct. - THE ANGLE: the write-down that the share price wrote. The 10-Q says the interim goodwill test was triggered because market capitalisation had fallen below carrying value - the accounting followed the tape, not the business. - THE CHARGE: USD2,134.7M total - USD1,671.0M of goodwill plus USD463.7M of trademarks, 5.4x a quarter of revenue. 100 pct NON-CASH, added straight back in the cash-flow statement. Goodwill fell USD6,221M to USD4,555M. - IT DID NOT CLOSE THE GAP: even after the charge, equity of USD5,080M sat USD704M ABOVE the June 30 market value of USD4,376M - the filing calls that a reasonable control premium. Book is USD18.92 a share; the stock is USD18.02. - THE EPS BASIS: GAAP EPS was USD(7.34); ADJUSTED EPS was USD0.36 against USD0.30 modelled, a 20 pct BEAT and FLAT on last year. Proved: H1 adjusted USD0.69 less Q2 USD0.36 = USD0.33, exactly the vendors' Q1 row. - WHAT ACTUALLY DETERIORATED: United States revenue fell 12.1 pct to USD151.2M, perpetual licences 23.3 pct and services 19.5 pct, and adjusted operating margin went 31 pct to 29 pct with Q3 guided to about 27 pct. SaaS grew 22.9 pct. - THE BALANCE SHEET: USD304.1M cash against USD646.0M of brand-new borrowings, drawn to fund a USD625.0M cash payment to Hexagon at the spin. Net debt USD341.9M against a 3.5x covenant. Tangible book value is MINUS USD636.9M. What to watch: UP: market capitalisation back above carrying value at September 30, which retires the impairment trigger; or the perpetual licence and services lines stabilising so reported growth converges on the 7 pct recurring rate. DOWN: a Q3 adjusted operating margin below the ~27 pct guide, another leg down in US revenue after the 12.1 pct fall, or a second goodwill test against the USD4,555M still carried. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Cellebrite DI Ltd (CLBT) Q2 2026 — Cellebrite is a foreign private issuer and files 6-K, not 8-K. The results 6-K cleared EDGAR at 11:15am ET on Thursday August 13 - BEFORE the open, so August 13 itself was the reaction session: the shares opened USD10.32 against a USD15.25 prior close, traded as low as USD9.58 and closed USD10.80. That is minus 29.18 pct on 36,750,400 shares, 30.9x the 20-session average. By August 17 they were USD10.44. Cellebrite DI is the Israeli digital-forensics company whose software is used by more than 7,000 law-enforcement, defence and intelligence agencies. Q2 revenue was USD131.138M, up 15.8 pct, with annual recurring revenue of USD507.8M, up 21 pct, non-GAAP gross margin of 85.5 pct and USD545.7M of net cash against no borrowings. The shares fell 29.18 pct on the print. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE CRASH REMOVED AN OVER-VALUATION, IT DID NOT CREATE ONE) — base-case value ~$9.44 vs ~$10.44 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD9.44 against the USD10.44 close, minus 9.5 pct. Bear USD5.27 / base USD9.48 / bull USD13.53, weighted 25/50/25 on owner earnings of USD83.2M discounted over five years at 10 pct. - THE ANGLE: USD15M of ARR, USD1.1bn of market value. Cellebrite cut its full-year recurring-revenue target from a USD570M midpoint to USD555M. The equity lost USD1,125M the same session - about USD75 of market value per USD1 of ARR removed. - THE DECOMPOSITION: at the 5.81x forward ARR multiple the market paid on August 12, a USD15M cut is worth USD87M - 7.7 pct of the fall. The other USD1,038M, or 92.3 pct, is pure multiple compression: 5.81x down to 3.94x forward ARR. - THE EPS MISS DOES NOT EXIST: the Street bar is non-GAAP. Non-GAAP diluted EPS was USD0.11 against about USD0.07 modelled - a BEAT. Revenue of USD131.138M missed by 0.3 pct. Comparing GAAP USD0.0252 to that bar manufactures a fake miss. - WHAT ACTUALLY BROKE: ARR of USD507.8M missed Cellebrite's OWN May 14 guide of USD510-513M by 0.7 pct, and consensus of USD512.1M. Guided second-half net new ARR of USD47.2M is 23.7 pct below the USD61.9M added in the second half of 2025. - THE GAAP FALL IS NOT OPERATING: net income fell USD13.105M year on year - USD7.468M operating, USD2.136M lower interest income, USD3.501M tax. Last year's 6.3 pct effective tax rate was the anomaly against 43.0 pct now. - THE SOFT LINE IS CASH: quarterly free cash flow was USD14.521M against USD28.975M, a margin of 11.1 pct against 25.6 pct. The release leads with a trailing-twelve-month 28.0 pct instead. Backlog fell 8.7 pct since December to USD370.4M. What to watch: UP: third-quarter ARR printing at the top of the USD524-528M guide, which would weaken the deceleration case in a single quarter; or the equity-compensation run rate holding flat at USD61M while revenue compounds. DOWN: another sequential fall in remaining performance obligations after the 8.7 pct decline since December, or an ARR print starting with a four. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Septerna (SEPN) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:03pm ET on August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 was the reaction session: the shares opened only +1.85 pct at USD39.57, traded as low as USD38.62, then were bought all day to close +22.93 pct at USD47.76 on 2.91x average volume. USD44.50 on August 14. Septerna is a clinical-stage biotechnology company developing oral small molecule drugs against G protein-coupled receptors, listed on the Nasdaq in October 2024. The June quarter beat on both lines: revenue USD26.7M against a USD19.2M bar, loss per share USD0.29 against USD0.426. But 54.6 pct of that revenue is amortisation of a Novo Nordisk upfront paid in July 2025, 41.9 pct is fully reimbursed research services, and only 3.4 pct is newly earned. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE MARKET PAID 23 PCT FOR A PHARMACOKINETIC PARAMETER) — base-case value ~$31.92 vs ~$44.50 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD31.92 vs the USD44.50 close, -28.3 pct. Bear USD20.89 / base USD29.46 / bull USD42.31, weighted 50/25/25 across ONE model in which only the SEP-479 probability of success moves: 20 pct ours, 13 pct the industry base rate, 50 pct Stifel's own published figure. - THE PRINT: revenue USD26.7M vs USD19.2M expected, a 39.1 pct beat. Loss per share USD0.29 against a USD0.426 bar. R&D USD35.1M vs USD22.2M, G&A USD8.5M vs USD6.9M, operating loss USD16.8M. Net loss USD13.0M against USD24.8M a year earlier, helped by USD4.8M of interest income. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: Q1 USD0.19 loss plus Q2 USD0.29 equals the filed six-month USD0.48 exactly, so the vendor epsActual series is GAAP. Basic and diluted are identical - 6,071,300 dilutive securities were anti-dilutive. FMP did NOT double-count the collaboration revenue. - THE REVENUE IS A SCHEDULE: Note 3 splits the USD26.7M three ways. USD14.6M is amortisation of Novo Nordisk's USD195.0M upfront, USD11.2M is research services Novo reimburses at 100 pct, USD0.9M is milestones. Only 3.4 pct is newly earned. USD140.4M of deferred revenue remains. - WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED IT: the observed elimination half-life of SEP-479 is approximately three to four days, which the company says supports once-daily oral dosing. The same release extended MAD dosing to 14 days and pushed Phase 1 SAD/MAD data to Q1 2027. SEP-631's planned Phase 2b in urticaria was dropped. - CASH IS NOT THE ISSUE: USD516.5M of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, plus USD33.7M net from the July ATM. Operating outflow USD22.2M in the quarter and USD47.8M in the half. No financial debt - the USD22.5M a screener shows is an operating lease. Runway guided at least into 2029. - THE STREET: 5 dated targets, all bullish, averaging USD50.60 (USD43-USD60). H.C. Wainwright USD60 Aug 12, Guggenheim USD51 Aug 11, Wells Fargo USD50 Aug 12, Stifel USD49 Aug 11, Truist USD43 Jul 1. We sit 36.9 pct below. The tape requires a 55.1 pct probability of success - above Stifel's 50 pct. What to watch: UP: a clean fourteen-day multiple-ascending-dose readout in Q1 2027 showing calcium control with no bilirubin signal, which lifts our 20 pct probability of success materially - every ten points is USD4.28 a share. Also a named, dated trial for SEP-631 in a mast-cell indication. DOWN: any unconjugated bilirubin signal in the extended cohorts, the event that ended SEP-786 on February 18 2025, which takes the model to USD20.89. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Quantinuum Inc (QNT) Q2 2026 — The results 8-K cleared EDGAR at 8:11pm ET on Monday August 11 - well AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 12 was the reaction session: the shares opened USD59.65 against a USD56.06 prior close, traded as high as USD72.40 and closed USD71.74. That is plus 27.97 pct on 4,584,200 shares, 3.45x the 20-session average, and it never traded back below Monday's close. By August 17 they were USD66.01. Quantinuum is the trapped-ion quantum computing company spun out of Honeywell. It priced its IPO at USD60.00 on June 5, 2026, so this is the FIRST quarter it has ever reported to a public market. Q2 revenue was USD7.998M, up 279.4 pct against a USD2.108M base quarter, with adjusted gross margin at 61.7 pct and USD2.107bn of cash against no debt. The shares rose 27.97 pct on the print. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL COMPANY, AT THE PRICE OF A CERTAINTY) — base-case value ~$26.56 vs ~$66.01 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD26.56 against the USD66.01 close, minus 59.8 pct. Bear USD5.87 / base USD18.59 / bull USD65.71, weighted 30/45/25 across three 2030 revenue outcomes, each at a terminal sales multiple and discounted 4.5 years at 15 pct. - THE ANGLE: the bull case IS the price. Take the lowest target on the Street - Morgan Stanley's, at USD78 - and its own published model of 12x USD2.5bn of 2030 revenue. Discount that to TODAY instead of to 2027 and it is USD65.71 a share. The stock closed USD66.01. - WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: USD263.3M as-converted shares at USD66.01 is a USD17.38bn market value, less USD2.107bn of cash equals USD15.27bn of enterprise value. That is 509x the USD28-32M of revenue the company guides to for all of 2026. - THE SANITY CHECK: justifying today's enterprise value at 12x terminal sales needs USD2,387M of 2030 revenue - 164 pct growth a year for 4.5 years. BCG sizes the ENTIRE 2030 quantum provider market at USD1-2bn; BCC Research says USD7.3bn. - THE LOSS IS NOT WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE: GAAP net loss was USD596.520M, but USD464.587M is equity compensation vesting at the listing and USD47.615M is a non-cash warrant mark. 87.7 pct is non-cash or one-off. Adjusted EBITDA was minus USD68.310M. - THE COMP CUTS BOTH WAYS: revenue grew 279 pct off a USD2.108M trough, yet SIX-MONTH revenue FELL 37.6 pct, USD13.235M vs USD21.193M. Strip 2025's one-off USD16.526M lease sale and the recurring line is up 167 pct - that is the real number. - THE GUIDANCE NOBODY QUOTES: first formal guidance is USD28-32M, a USD30.0M midpoint against FY2025 revenue of USD30.931M. Flat to down on the total; roughly double the FY2025 recurring line of USD14.780M; and only 29 pct above FY2024's USD23.256M. What to watch: UP: a 2027 revenue range starting with a six or a seven rather than a three or a four, which moves the base case onto a different track entirely; or the Sol machine landing on schedule in 2027, which raises the odds on Apollo in 2029 where all the value sits. DOWN: contracted backlog converting slower than the 39.6 pct of USD74.2M the company schedules for the next twelve months, or any slip in the Apollo date. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

WeRide Inc. (WRD) Q2 2026 — The results 6-K cleared EDGAR at 9:22am ET on August 12 - eight minutes BEFORE the open, so Wednesday August 12 was itself the reaction session: the shares opened USD6.27 against a USD6.33 prior close, were sold all day, traded as low as USD5.64, and closed USD5.72. That is minus 9.64 pct on 11,169,549 ADSs, 4.16x the 63-session average. By August 17 they were USD6.08. WeRide is a Guangzhou-based, Cayman-incorporated autonomous driving company listed on both Nasdaq and the Hong Kong exchange, and it calls itself the first publicly traded robotaxi company. It reports in renminbi under IFRS and files 6-K and 20-F, not 10-Q. Q2 2026 revenue rose 82.2 pct to RMB231.717M with gross margin at 37.5 pct - and the quarterly loss barely moved. The ADSs fell 9.64 pct on the print. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - REAL GROWTH, ALREADY IN THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$5.98 vs ~$6.08 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD5.98 against the USD6.08 close, minus 1.6 pct. Bear USD3.25 / base USD6.10 / bull USD11.16, weighted 40/35/25 across 7.0x our 2027 revenue estimate, a 14 pct equity DCF that runs past the guided break-even, and 12x the 2026 revenue the Street models. - THE ANGLE: revenue rose 82.2 pct to RMB231.717M and gross profit rose 143.3 pct - and the loss for the period went RMB406.445M to RMB400.665M. It narrowed by RMB5.780M, or 1.4 pct. A full year of near-doubling revenue moved the bottom line by almost nothing. - WHY THE LOSS LOOKS FLAT: share-based compensation halved, RMB119.858M to RMB55.091M, and RMB64.270M of that RMB64.767M drop is in the administrative line alone - listing-related pay and global-offering fees rolling off. Non-cash and non-recurring. It is not operating leverage. - THE COMPANY'S OWN MEASURE GOT WORSE: non-IFRS adjusted loss, which strips exactly those items, went RMB300.558M to RMB338.453M. That is 12.6 pct WIDER year on year. Research alone was RMB434.329M - 1.87x total revenue - and it still grew 36.2 pct year on year. - THE ADS TRAP: one ADS is THREE Class A ordinary shares, not one, and the company reports in renminbi. Filed loss per ordinary share RMB0.41; per ADS RMB1.23, or USD0.18 at the company's own RMB6.7851 rate. Against a USD0.13149 bar that is a MISS of roughly 38 pct, not a beat. - THE VENDOR DATA IS DEFECTIVE: the Q2 feed row of minus USD0.18103 is per ADS, but the prior quarter's minus USD0.05507 is per ORDINARY SHARE - a threefold basis switch in adjacent rows. The filed quarters themselves foot: RMB114.140M plus RMB231.717M equals RMB345.857M. - THE CLOCK: cash, deposits and products fell RMB7,131.354M to RMB5,398.520M in six months - the company prints minus 24.3 pct itself - while also drawing RMB160.784M more bank debt. That is about 6.2 quarters of runway against a guided 2029 full-year break-even. What to watch: UP: the driver-assistance line reaching the 100,000 cumulative installations management targets for year end, against roughly 30,000 shipped in this quarter alone, or gross margin holding above 35 pct for another quarter. Either re-rates the sales multiple. DOWN: a quarterly cash draw that stays near RMB866M, which turns a funding question into a financing event well before the guided 2029 break-even. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

HawkEye 360 (HAWK) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:05pm ET on August 13 - AFTER the close, so Friday August 14 was the reaction session: the shares opened minus 1.5 pct at USD24.00, fell as low as USD21.52 (minus 11.7 pct), and closed USD22.78, minus 6.52 pct, on 1.7M shares against a 1.29M average since listing. HawkEye 360 flies over 30 satellites that geolocate radio-frequency emitters and sells the intelligence to governments. It listed on the NYSE in May 2026, so this was only its second quarter public. Revenue was USD49.81M, up 87 pct, and the loss per share was USD0.07 against a USD0.1075 bar. But the press release and the 10-Q, filed on consecutive days, describe two different quarters. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL BUSINESS ON AN IPO-FLATTERED QUARTER) — base-case value ~$15.47 vs ~$23.16 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD15.47 vs the USD23.16 close, minus 33.2 pct. Bear USD11.57 / base USD18.14 / bull USD25.55, weighted 40/35/25 across 5.0x 2028 consensus revenue, a discounted cash flow at 11.5 pct, and 20x 2028 consensus Adjusted EBITDA, on 97,965,552 shares. - THE EPS BRIDGE: the filed net loss was USD15.278M. A POSITIVE USD10.925M preferred stock dividend line - the reversal of accrued dividends when USD465.7M of preferred converted at the IPO - cut the loss to common to USD4.353M. Over 61,924,756 weighted shares that is USD0.07. - THE DENOMINATOR: 61,924,756 weighted shares against 97,960,719 actually outstanding on June 30, because the IPO closed May 8, mid-quarter. The same USD15.278M loss over the real share count is USD0.156. Next quarter the denominator has to rise 58.2 pct with no credit left. - THE GROWTH: revenue USD49.810M, up 87.1 pct as printed. But the 10-Q Note 3 pro forma restates Q2 2025 at USD41.632M including the December 2025 ISA acquisition - growth of 19.6 pct. Sequentially, USD49.798M became USD49.810M: plus 0.02 pct. International rose 0.8 pct QoQ. - THE BACKLOG: the release headlines USD292.2M of confirmed backlog, a management-defined term. The GAAP remaining performance obligation in the 10-Q is USD105.3M - and USD100.0M of that is ONE agreement to 2032 at USD5.0M a quarter starting Q2 2027. Next twelve months: USD8.291M. - THE CASH FLOW: free cash flow was plus USD5.389M on USD6.240M of cash capex. But gross satellites and equipment went USD199.215M to USD232.473M in the half - USD33.258M of additions on USD10.295M of cash capex. USD20.922M was a non-cash reclassification of prepaid deposits. - THE LOCK-UP: Item 8.01 of the same 8-K moved the release forward. The 180-day period ends November 2, inside a blackout, so the early-termination clause fires and 79.6M shares - 81 pct of the company - are free to trade September 2, against a float of 18.4M shares, or 18.8 pct. What to watch: UP: September-quarter revenue landing at the USD57.1M the Street already models, roughly 15 pct sequential growth, which puts HawkEye back on the full-year guidance path. Also a second sovereign award of the size already won. DOWN: a back half that misses the USD215-220M guide, into a float that quintuples on September 2 when the lock-up releases. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

H World Group (HTHT) Q2 2026 — The 6-K cleared EDGAR at 6:30am ET on August 17, with the call at 7:00am - BEFORE the open, so August 17 was the reaction session itself: the ADSs opened plus 8.66 pct at USD45.51, ran to USD46.73, never traded below Friday's USD41.88 close, and finished plus 11.37 pct at USD46.64 on 2.2x volume. H World Group is the largest hotel operator in China - Hanting, JI, Orange, plus the Steigenberger brands abroad - with 13,539 hotels and 1,335,445 rooms at June 30. June-quarter revenue was RMB7,121m, up 10.8 pct, and adjusted earnings USD0.78 per ADS against a USD0.74 bar. But same-hotel RevPAR, for every China hotel open at least 18 months, FELL 3.0 pct to RMB233. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - A FEE BUSINESS PRICED LIKE A HOTEL OWNER) — base-case value ~$55.38 vs ~$46.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD55.38 per ADS vs the USD46.64 close, plus 18.7 pct. Bear USD42.47 / base USD55.38 / bull USD72.18, weighted 50/30/20 across a ten-year cash flow discount at 12.0 pct, 11x 2026 adjusted EBITDA and 21x adjusted earnings, on 316.1M ADSs. - THE PRINT: revenue RMB7,121m, up 10.8 pct, about USD1,050m at the filing rate. Manachised and franchised fee revenue RMB3,586m, up 25.2 pct. Leased and owned revenue RMB3,233m, DOWN 4.9 pct by design. Operating margin 31.1 pct against 27.8 pct. Adjusted EBITDA RMB2,725m, up 20.0 pct. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: the USD0.78 is ADJUSTED diluted per ADS, not GAAP. The filing prints RMB5.29, and 5.29 divided by the company's own RMB6.7851 rate is 0.7796. GAAP diluted was RMB4.87, or USD0.72 - a miss on that line. Q1 RMB3.36 plus Q2 RMB5.29 foots to the filed half of RMB8.65. - THE ANGLE: same-hotel RevPAR, every China hotel open at least 18 months, fell 3.0 pct to RMB233 from RMB240, on a flat room rate and occupancy down 2.4 points. The blended figure the release leads with rose 1.1 pct - but that blend includes hotels opened inside eighteen months. - WHY GAAP LOOKED FLAT: net income attributable rose only 2.1 pct to RMB1,577m and GAAP EPS per ADS was RMB4.87 against RMB4.85. One line explains it: currency gains were RMB366m a year ago and RMB49m this year, a RMB317m non-cash swing. Strip it and adjusted net income rose 26.9 pct. - THE GUIDANCE ARITHMETIC: full-year revenue growth was RAISED to 4-8 pct from 2-6 pct. But the first half already grew 11.0 pct. Against FY2025 revenue of RMB25,307m and a first half of RMB11,821m, that implies second-half growth of MINUS 2.1 pct to PLUS 5.4 pct - a raise embedding a slowdown. - THE BALANCE SHEET: RMB14,249m of cash against RMB4,226m of total debt - RMB10,165m of NET cash, about USD1,498m. A USD2.5bn three-year return plan was approved the same morning, and RMB2,844m of dividend plus RMB1,857m of buyback went out in the June quarter alone. What to watch: UP: same-hotel RevPAR turning positive through the September peak quarter, or a second-half revenue print above the top of the raised 4-8 pct guidance range. DOWN: the closure rate climbing above the 35 pct of gross openings it ran at this quarter, or overseas adjusted EBITDA falling further from RMB131m. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Firefly Aerospace (FLY) Q2 2026 — The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:08pm ET on August 11, AFTER the close, so Wednesday August 12 was the reaction session: the shares opened +1.33 pct at USD26.71, ran to USD27.74 (+5.24 pct), then gave it back and closed +0.68 pct at USD26.54 on 1.02x average volume. USD26.67 on August 14. Firefly Aerospace is a space and defense technology company that listed on the Nasdaq in August 2025. The June quarter set a revenue record: USD117.7M, up 657 pct, beating consensus by 33.4 pct, with non-GAAP loss per share of USD0.42 against a USD0.51 bar. But launch revenue inside that record was USD9.4M - 8.0 pct of the top line - and free cash burn was USD106.3M. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A RECORD QUARTER THE ROCKETS BARELY JOINED) — base-case value ~$22.89 vs ~$26.67 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD22.89 vs the USD26.67 close, -14.2 pct. Bear USD12.09 / base USD23.34 / bull USD44.27, weighted 50/30/20 across a scenario-weighted 2028 revenue multiple, 15x 2028 gross profit and 5.5x 2027 revenue, discounted at 13.0 pct to 180.0M shares. - THE PRINT: revenue USD117.7M vs USD88.2M expected, up 657 pct year on year and 45.5 pct sequentially - a 33.4 pct beat. Non-GAAP loss per share USD0.42 vs a USD0.51 bar, a USD0.09 beat. GAAP loss per share USD0.57. Adjusted EBITDA USD-61.2M against USD-47.9M a year earlier. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN BOTH WAYS: Q1 non-GAAP USD0.46 loss plus Q2 USD0.42 equals the filed six-month USD0.88, so the vendor epsActual series is non-GAAP. Q1 GAAP USD0.61 plus Q2 USD0.57 equals the filed USD1.18. The USD0.15 gap is the published bridge, USD24.6M exactly. - THE MIX, AND THE ANGLE: note 4 splits revenue two ways only. Launch revenue USD9.4M, up 48 pct - 8.0 pct of the record. Spacecraft Solutions USD108.3M, up 1,077 pct - and the 10-Q credits that to the inclusion of SciTec, acquired October 31 2025. Three customers are 72.1 pct of revenue. - THE MARGIN WENT BACKWARDS: gross margin 20.3 pct against 25.7 pct a year earlier, a fall of 541 basis points on revenue that grew more than sevenfold. Operating expense of USD119.1M is 101.2 pct of revenue. Stock compensation alone was USD17.0M, 14.5 pct of everything billed. - THE CASH CLOCK: free cash flow USD-106.3M in the quarter on the company's own reconciliation - USD81.6M operating burn plus USD24.7M capex. That is 90 cents out for every revenue dollar in. Cash and short-term investments USD635.3M, about 6.0 quarters, and liquidity still fell USD257.7M in the half after a USD181.6M June raise. - THE ORDER BOOK, AND WHAT IT IS WORTH: backlog USD1,468.1M at June 30, up 8.7 pct, book-to-bill 1.59x across the half. But remaining performance obligations are USD563.7M - only 38.4 pct of it - and USD403.1M is unscheduled multi-launch agreements. Enterprise value USD3,856M is 13.4x trailing revenue. What to watch: UP: a quarter where the launch line is a fifth of revenue rather than 8.0 pct, or gross margin recovering toward the 25.7 pct of a year ago, which is about USD6.4M a quarter of extra gross profit on this base. DOWN: free cash outflow holding above USD106.3M a quarter through Q4, which cuts runway under four quarters and forces a raise into weakness. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

Elbit Systems (ESLT) Q2 2026 — Elbit is a foreign private issuer, so Q2 2026 arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 6:01am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 was the reaction session: the shares gapped down 5.96 pct, traded to USD760.42 and closed -8.27 pct at USD776.08 on 2.36x average volume. USD783.62 on August 14. Elbit Systems is an international defense technology group. The June quarter was excellent on every operating measure: revenue up 15.9 pct to USD2,287.1M, Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 against a USD3.69 bar, GAAP operating margin up 160bp to 9.6 pct, and a record USD32.0bn order backlog. The shares fell 8.27 pct anyway. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A FLAWLESS QUARTER AT AN UNFORGIVING PRICE) — base-case value ~$487.49 vs ~$783.62 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD487.49 vs the USD783.62 close, -37.8 pct. Bear USD313.24 / base USD487.49 / bull USD730.80, weighted 35/35/30 across an unlevered DCF at 8.5 pct, 30x our 2027 Non-GAAP EPS and 18x 2027 EBITDA. Even the bull road sits 6.7 pct under the tape. - THE PRINT: revenue USD2,287.1M vs USD2,251.5M expected, up 15.9 pct. Non-GAAP diluted EPS USD4.14 vs a USD3.69 bar, a 12.2 pct beat and 28.2 pct growth. GAAP EPS USD3.61. Gross margin 25.3 pct from 24.0, GAAP operating margin 9.6 pct from 8.0, Non-GAAP 10.4 pct from 8.9. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN BOTH WAYS: Q1 Non-GAAP USD3.87 plus Q2 USD4.14 equals the filed six-month USD8.01, so the vendor epsActual series is Non-GAAP. Q1 GAAP USD3.34 plus Q2 USD3.61 equals the filed USD6.95. The USD0.53 gap is the published bridge, USD25.5M exactly. - THE ORDER BOOK: USD32.0bn at June 30, an all-time record, up 34.5 pct from USD23.8bn a year earlier and 6.0 pct from USD30.2bn at March 31. That implies about USD4,087M of gross intake on USD2,287.1M of revenue - a book-to-bill near 1.8x and 3.7 years of revenue contracted. - THE TAX LINE, THE ONE THING THAT CHANGED: the effective rate went 5.6 pct to 16.4 pct on the OECD global minimum tax named in the release. That is USD25.7M more tax, about USD0.53 a diluted share - the size of the whole Non-GAAP bridge. FY2025 was 9.9 pct. Structural, not timing. - GROWTH MIX: Land +32.1 pct, ISTAR and EW +21.9, the American arm +16.5, C4I and Cyber +11.5, Aerospace -7.8 on project mix. By region Israel +27.5 pct, Asia-Pacific +22.1, North America +14.9 - and Europe FLAT at USD563.3M vs USD563.8M, though the release says the book grew mainly from Europe. - CASH: first-half operating cash flow USD517.8M, up 70.3 pct - but contract liabilities (customer advances) rose USD698.8M while receivables and contract assets rose USD834.4M, so they nearly cancel. Capex doubled to USD157.6M. Net cash USD695.4M. Trailing FCF USD681.5M, a 1.81 pct yield. What to watch: UP: a clear beat against the USD3.82 third-quarter bar on November 17 rebuilds our 2026 line and lifts every valuation road; European revenue inflecting from a flat USD563.3M confirms the order wave is converting. DOWN: book-to-bill falling toward 1.0x, or the tax rate settling above 16.4 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision.

BBB Foods (TBBB) Q2 2026 — BBB Foods is a foreign private issuer, so the 2Q26 release arrived on a Form 6-K, not an 8-K. It cleared EDGAR at 4:30pm ET on August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 was the reaction session: the shares opened +8.2 pct and closed +16.31 pct at USD49.20, the highest close of the twelve-month window, on 4.4x average volume. They eased to USD47.79 on August 14. Everything is reported in Mexican pesos (Ps.) under IFRS. Tiendas 3B is Mexico's leading grocery hard discounter: 3,624 stores, 21 distribution centres and 29,202 staff. The quarter was excellent - revenue up 38.7 pct to Ps. 26,037M, same-store sales up 20.0 pct, 155 net new stores. But the release carries TWO EBITDA growth rates: 13.8 pct on the income statement, 43.8 pct excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based charge. That charge is settled in real shares, and the company says so itself. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS, PRICED ON A SHARE COUNT THAT IS 42 PCT TOO SMALL) — base-case value ~$39.58 vs ~$47.79 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD39.58 against the USD47.79 close, -17.2 pct. Bear USD23.37 / base USD39.58 / bull USD58.08, weighted 50/30/20 across an exit-multiple road, a free-cash-flow DCF and a sales multiple. All three roads land within a dollar of each other; the disagreement is with the share count, not the method. - THE PRINT: total revenue Ps. 26,037M, up 38.7 pct year on year, decomposing as 20.0 pct same-store sales compounded with about 15.6 pct from the wider network. Gross margin expanded 54 bps to 16.8 pct. 155 net new stores took the base to 3,624, and a new distribution centre took the logistics network to 21. - THE TWO EBITDA NUMBERS: reported EBITDA Ps. 960M, up 13.8 pct. Excluding a Ps. 615M non-cash share-based payment charge it is Ps. 1,575M, up 43.8 pct. The charge itself rose 143.8 pct. Administrative expense rose 95.3 pct, and even stripping the charge out it still rose 69.8 pct to Ps. 813M. - THE SHARE COUNT: Appendix 1 of the release gives 121,187,774 shares outstanding and, on the company's own net-settlement method run at the USD47.79 close, 164.7M fully diluted. The data vendor carries 115.9M. So market value is USD7.87bn, not the USD5.54bn a screen prints - 42 pct larger at the same share price. - THE MULTIPLE: enterprise value on the fully diluted count is Ps. 143.6bn, which is 28.8x trailing EBITDA before the charge and 1.58x sales on a 5.48 pct trailing margin. On the screen share count the same company looks like 20.8x. A third of the multiple vanishes purely because the denominator is wrong. - STORE ECONOMICS, AND THEY ARE GOOD: revenue per store reached Ps. 7.34M a quarter, up 15.8 pct from Ps. 6.34M. Stores per distribution centre FELL to 173 from 189, so logistics runs ahead of the build. Operating cash flow was Ps. 2,325M; after all capital spending and every peso of lease payment, free cash flow was Ps. 675M. - THE STREET: 14 firms cover it, 11 positive. Six published targets - UBS USD51 (Aug 4), Citigroup USD49 (Jul 31), Scotiabank USD48 (May 5), HSBC USD47 (May 27), Morgan Stanley USD46 (Jan 28), Itau BBA USD42 (Mar 13). The average is USD47.17 and NOT ONE postdates the print. The tape closed above that average on the reaction day. What to watch: UP: same-store sales holding near 20 pct for two more quarters, or the margin before the charge clearing 7 pct, which brings our USD58.08 bull case within reach of the tape. DOWN: the same-store line fading toward the mid-teens while capital keeps going out of the door, or any fresh equity grant that resets the schedule in Appendix 2 of the release. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

ERock (EROC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30), the first quarter reported since ERock listed on the NYSE on June 11 2026 at USD21.50. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 4:19pm ET on August 11, AFTER the close, so August 12 IS the reaction session: it gapped up 16.62 pct and closed plus 22.84 pct on 2.56x volume. Two more sessions took it to USD16.72 - plus 48.62 pct, yet still 22.2 pct below the listing price. ERock builds utility-grade natural gas generators that supply data centres and factories with power the grid cannot deliver fast enough. In its first quarter as a public company revenue FELL 41.7 pct to USD39.9M - and contracted backlog rose to about USD1.7bn, up 10x. The income statement and the order book tell opposite stories, and the whole USD3.67bn equity value rests on which one is right. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE ORDER BOOK IS REAL, THE PRICE ALREADY PAYS FOR IT CONVERTING IN FULL) — base-case value ~$14.36 vs ~$16.72 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD14.36 against the USD16.72 close, -14.1 pct. Bear USD6.18 / base USD14.10 / bull USD23.07, weighted 25/50/25. Each case takes a 2028 revenue figure, applies ERock's own second-half margin ambition, capitalises it, discounts back at 12 pct and adds the USD626.6M of cash. - THE TWO HEADLINES, BOTH TRUE: revenue of USD39.878M was DOWN 41.7 pct against Q2 2025's USD68.458M - the figure the company prints itself - and UP 25.7 pct against Q1 2026's USD31.736M. The widely reported plus 23 pct was neither: it was the SHARE PRICE on August 12, the reaction session. - THE ANGLE: contracted backlog reached about USD1.7bn from about USD0.2bn a year earlier, up 10x, in the same quarter revenue fell 42 pct. A 470 MW equipment order from Anthropic extends production commitments into 2028, and the 10-Q states the backlog will be worked off over approximately two years. - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY A REFINANCING: the USD67.719M net loss contains USD48.774M of loss on extinguishing debt, booked when listing proceeds retired the borrowings - 72 pct of it, and non-operating. Filed loss per share is USD0.06, but struck on only 48.2M weighted shares for the post-listing days. - WHAT THE GUIDE REQUIRES: first-ever guidance of USD435-465M revenue and USD3-9M adjusted EBITDA. The first half delivered USD71.614M, so the second half must produce about USD378M - 5.3x the first half, roughly USD189M a quarter, against USD39.9M just delivered - and swing margin about 44 points. - WHO IS FUNDING IT: operating cash flow was POSITIVE USD268.9M for the half, but USD358.4M of that is the increase in customer prepayments. Strip it and operating cash flow is MINUS USD89.4M. Contract liabilities stand at USD528.4M. Cash is USD626.6M with zero borrowings and an undrawn USD250M facility. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: on 219,400,080 economic shares at USD16.72 the market value is USD3.67bn and enterprise value USD3.04bn - 1.79x the entire contracted order book. That price already discounts about USD2.21bn of 2028 revenue, 12.1x FY2025's USD183.1M and more than the whole backlog. What to watch: UP: a September quarter near the USD189M the guide implies, another order on the scale of the 470 MW Anthropic award, or evidence the Hyperion factory is shipping at rate. DOWN: a third-quarter print anywhere near the USD39.9M just delivered, any slip in the 2028 commitments, a guidance cut in November, or collection trouble on the customer owing 62 pct of receivables. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

DPC Holdings (DPC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 28). DPC Holdings, trading as Doncasters, listed on the NYSE on June 25 2026 - this is its first reported quarter as a public company. The 8-K cleared EDGAR at 7:05am ET on August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened plus 1.11 pct, ran to plus 11.19 pct, traded BELOW the prior close intraday, and closed plus 4.45 pct on 1.74x volume. By August 14 it was USD50.09 - the entire gain handed back. Doncasters casts the superalloy blades that sit inside jet engines and industrial gas turbines, and it has been a public company for seven weeks. Its first print was a record: revenue up 34 pct to USD268.7M, adjusted EBITDA up 33 pct to USD48M, and the first full-year guidance the company has ever given. And in that same quarter the group adjusted EBITDA margin went DOWN ten basis points. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GROWTH IS REAL, THE MARGIN THAT JUSTIFIES THE MULTIPLE IS NOT THERE YET) — base-case value ~$46.27 vs ~$50.09 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD46.27 against the USD50.09 close, -7.6 pct. Bear USD32.92 / base USD46.27 / bull USD58.63. Three roads, weighted 45/30/25: 30x our 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate of USD222M, the 32.5x peer median applied to the year DPC has actually guided, and a 36x growth premium. - THE PRINT: revenue USD268.7M against a USD246.0M bar - a 9.2 pct beat and a record, up 34 pct. But adjusted EPS was USD0.05 against USD0.07, a two-cent MISS on a genuinely comparable non-GAAP basis. The GAAP loss of USD1.14 a share contains USD158.5M of listing-triggered pay, not operations. - THE ANGLE: group adjusted EBITDA margin FELL 10 basis points, 17.9 pct to 17.8 pct, in the quarter revenue grew 34 pct to a record. Engine Products added 210bp to 23.5 pct - but Turbo Wheels, 17.9 pct of revenue, lost 430bp to 3.3 pct as its segment EBITDA fell 55.6 pct to USD1.6M. - THE GUIDE IS THE TELL: first guidance ever, USD1.00-1.04bn revenue and USD182-187M adjusted EBITDA. H1 revenue was USD505.3M, so the implied second half grows only 10.4 to 19.4 pct against 29.9 pct in H1 - while needing margin of 18.8 pct against 17.4 pct. A margin guide, in the half margin fell. - CASH: free cash flow was minus USD36.5M in the quarter and minus USD53.8M across the half, against POSITIVE USD11.0M a year earlier. Operating cash flow was minus USD27.0M on USD48M of adjusted EBITDA. Working capital of USD307.0M is about 30 pct of guided revenue, so growth consumes cash. - THE BALANCE SHEET, AND WE GIVE IT FULL CREDIT: from USD524.6M of net debt at 3.8x in December to USD118.2M of transaction-adjusted net CASH at 0.7x. The 14.0 pct shareholder PIK loan is extinguished, USD460M of a 10.2 pct term loan was repaid June 29, and Moody's upgraded to Ba2 positive. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD50.09 on 149,393,016 shares the enterprise value is USD7.36bn - 45.9x trailing adjusted EBITDA and 39.9x the company's own guide. Howmet, which casts the same parts for the same engines, trades at 43.5x on a 30.2 pct margin. DPC is guiding to 18.1 pct. What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of positive free cash flow, evidence that Turbo Wheels has stopped diluting - a disposal or a genuine margin recovery toward the 7.6 pct it earned a year ago - or a November print that delivers the second-half margin the guidance promises. DOWN: metal-cost pass-through continuing to dilute reported margin, working capital absorbing the growth, a soft first guide revision, or the 180-day lock-up releasing around December 21 2026 into a float that is seven weeks old. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Belite Bio (BLTE) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). Belite is a foreign private issuer - no 10-Q, the quarter is a 6-K. It cleared EDGAR 9:50pm ET August 12, AFTER the close, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened dead flat, closed -7.07 pct on 3.04x volume. On August 11 the FDA accepted the first New Drug Application ever filed in Stargardt disease and granted Priority Review. The stock closed up 0.77 pct. Thirty hours later Belite printed the quarter and the stock fell 7.07 pct on triple volume. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE APPROVAL IS PRICED, THE LABEL IS NOT WRITTEN) — base-case value ~$136.18 vs ~$162.80 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD136.18 against the USD162.80 close, -16.4 pct. Bear USD52.96 / base USD139.29 / bull USD213.17. Risk-adjusted NPV, every assumption stated: 46 pct peak operating margin, 11x exit multiple, 8 years to peak, 11 pct discount rate, 85 pct odds of approval. - THE PRINT: net loss USD28.4M against USD16.3M, GAAP loss per share USD0.70 against a USD0.73 consensus. That three-cent difference is about USD1.2M of spending timing on 40,182,310 weighted shares - not operating news. Six-month net loss USD55.4M against USD30.6M. There is no revenue line. - WHAT ACTUALLY MOVED IT: cash selling and administrative expense, excluding share compensation, went USD1.3M to USD10.9M - 8.2 TIMES - in twelve months, and USD2.8M to USD16.6M across the half. Cash operating expense rose 181.8 pct to USD28.1M. Share compensation FELL, USD7.6M to USD6.8M. - THE ASYMMETRY: the FDA accepted the first NDA ever filed in Stargardt disease, with PRIORITY REVIEW, after the close on August 11. The August 12 reaction session closed +0.77 pct. The Q2 results landed after the close on August 12, and August 13 opened dead flat and closed -7.07 pct. - BALANCE SHEET: USD279.9M of cash plus USD500.1M of US Treasury bills and notes is USD780.0M, 98.5 pct of total assets, against USD14.9M of total liabilities and no debt. Liquid assets fell only USD18.6M in the quarter from USD798.6M. About 9 years of runway on the USD21.6M non-GAAP loss. - THE ASSET: tinlarebant, a once-daily oral RBP4 antagonist. Phase 3 DRAGON, 104 subjects aged 12 to 20 over 24 months, cut atrophic lesion growth 35.7 pct versus placebo. PDUFA February 12 2027. DRAGON II enrolled 73; PHOENIX in geographic atrophy enrolled 530, with an interim analysis ahead. - WHAT THE TAPE REQUIRES: at USD162.80 the enterprise value is USD5.79bn, or USD109,269 per US Stargardt patient against a company estimate of 53,000. That price needs USD3.51bn of peak sales, 20.5 pct above our base case - roughly 14,049 patients at USD185,000 a year, 26.5 pct of the pool. What to watch: UP: an approved label on February 12 2027 covering adults rather than the 12-to-20 trial population, or a positive PHOENIX interim in geographic atrophy. DOWN: a label written to the DRAGON population, payer resistance to an imaging endpoint, or a commercial build sized for patients who never come. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Stantec (STN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30). The 6-K cleared EDGAR at 21:03 on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -1.20 pct, fell as far as -4.59 pct intraday, then closed -0.32 pct on 1.60x volume. Stantec reported record net revenue, record adjusted EBITDA margin and a record CAD 9.2bn backlog, then raised its margin target. The United States - 51.9 pct of net revenue - grew organically by exactly zero. All figures Canadian dollars. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD BUSINESS ALREADY PRICED FOR ITS GUIDANCE) — base-case value ~$69.36 vs ~$73.70 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD69.36 (CAD96.22) vs the USD73.70 close, -5.9 pct. Bear USD40.20 / base USD71.26 / bull USD108.35 weighted 30/50/20 on a free-cash-flow DCF: CAD600M normalised, 8.25 pct discount, 2.5 pct terminal. - GROWTH DECOMPOSED: net revenue CAD1,780.6M, +11.5 pct. Acquisition supplied 7.1 points and currency 0.7, leaving organic growth of just 3.7 pct. In FY2025 the ratio ran the other way: organic 5.0 pct against acquisition 3.9 pct. The mix has flipped. - THE UNITED STATES: net revenue CAD924.5M vs CAD819.6M, and organic growth of 0.0 pct. Every dollar of the CAD104.9M increase was the Page acquisition (CAD105.1M) less CAD0.2M of currency. Canada managed 2.4 pct; Global 12.8 pct. - WATER CARRIED IT: Water is 22.4 pct of net revenue and delivered CAD41.9M of the CAD58.8M of organic growth - 71.3 pct. Strip Water out and the other CAD1,381.6M of Stantec grew organically 1.4 pct. Infrastructure, the No.2 business, SHRANK 1.1 pct. - THE WIDENING WEDGE: adjusted EPS CAD1.61 vs IFRS diluted CAD1.32 - a CAD0.29 gap against CAD0.17 a year ago, up 71 pct. After-tax amortisation of acquired intangibles is CAD22.7M of it. IFRS net margin FELL to 8.4 pct from 8.5 pct. - GUIDANCE CUT INSIDE A RAISE: the adjusted EBITDA margin target went UP to 17.8-18.3 pct, but organic growth was cut from mid- to high-single digits (May filing) to mid-single digits, and the US and Canada with it. Only Global was raised. - CASH: first-half free cash flow was NEGATIVE CAD6.2M against positive CAD129.0M a year earlier; operating cash flow halved to CAD116.3M. Stantec still returned CAD231.4M via buybacks and dividends. Net debt CAD1,642.4M, leverage 1.3x. What to watch: UP: US organic growth turning visibly positive at the November 12 Q3 print, which would validate the deferred-work explanation and largely close our gap. DOWN: a second flat US quarter, which makes the full-year organic guide arithmetically unreachable, or backlog conversion slipping further. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

SABESP (SBS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:55 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened -4.71 pct at USD4.86 and CLOSED -8.24 pct at USD4.68 on 5.05x normal volume.) Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo is the water and sewage utility for Sao Paulo state - 371 municipalities, privatised in 2024. Q2 adjusted EBITDA fell 3.2 pct. Adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct. The gap is the financial line. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD ASSET, ALREADY PAID FOR) — base-case value ~$4.24 vs ~$4.60 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD4.24 an ADS (R$22.09 a share) vs the USD4.60 close, -7.9 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: 1.25x the concession base gives R$21.84, 10x trailing earnings of R$2.27 gives R$22.70, 8x annualised adjusted EBITDA gives R$22.10. BEAR USD3.42, BULL USD5.66. - THE ANGLE - THIS IS A RATES STORY, NOT A WATER STORY. Interest and charges on borrowings rose R$825.3M year on year while adjusted net revenue rose R$378M: 2.18x faster. Adjusted EBITDA fell just 3.2 pct but adjusted net income fell 41.2 pct, and 76 pct of the pre-tax decline is the financial line. - LONG INFLATION, SHORT THE REAL RATE. CDI-linked borrowings went from R$30.7bn to R$43.3bn in six months - 82 pct of the whole stack. Net of cash that is a R$26.4bn CDI liability costing R$3.7bn a year at 13.98 pct, against a R$17.0bn IPCA-linked concession asset earning R$693M a year. - THE REGULATED SPREAD IS 158 BASIS POINTS. ARSESP allows 7.86 pct real post-tax on the base. CDI money at 13.98 pct nominal, with IPCA at 4.07 pct, costs 6.28 pct real after 34 pct tax. Every debt-funded real of the R$20bn-a-year capex earns that point and a half, before any overrun. - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS R$0.33 vs R$0.57; reported IFRS R$0.41 vs R$0.62. Net revenue R$10,209M was a record but R$3,616M is IFRIC 12 construction revenue earning R$13.3M of margin. Q2 2025 also carried about R$200M of legal releases plus a R$280.3M financial credit - clean, the fall is 29.8 pct. - THE TARIFF WORKED, THE CUSTOMER DID NOT. The average rate rose 9.4 pct to R$6.01 a cubic metre but billed volume rose only 0.8 pct and mix took 3.1 pct back out as social tariffs expanded. Net price landed at 8.7 pct against a 9.9 pct schedule. Active water connections FELL 0.2 pct. - THE PRICE RECONCILES. 1 ADS = 1 ordinary share, unchanged; the 28 April 2026 EGM approved a 1:5 split and BNY Mellon issued four extra ADRs per ADR. 3,524,534,025 shares x USD4.60 = USD16.21bn. USD4.60 x 5.2132 = R$23.98 against SBSP3 near R$24.28. Screens quoting 683M shares are pre-split. What to watch: UP: a January 2027 ARSESP tariff adjustment materially above inflation (January 2026 delivered 6.5 pct); or Selic cuts below 13 pct, worth about R$264M a year per 100 bps on the net floating book. DOWN: one more quarter of services up 39 pct and chemicals up 97 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Alliance Laundry Holdings (ALH) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR 07:12 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so Thursday IS the reaction session: it OPENED +7.9 pct - the high of the day - then closed -7.9 pct from that open, -0.6 pct on the session.) Alliance Laundry's pre-tax profit improved by USD33.4M year on year. Only about USD8.0M of it - 24 pct - came from the business getting better. The rest is a cash interest saving, a non-cash swap mark and a one-off refund. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE GAP IS ONE ASSUMPTION WIDE) — base-case value ~$23.27 vs ~$25.47 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD23.27 vs the USD25.47 close, -8.6 pct. Three roads weighted 40/35/25: a 9.0 pct DCF fading to a 2.5 pct tail USD22.97, 12.5x forward Adjusted EBITDA USD23.69, 17.5x forward adjusted EPS of USD1.32 USD23.15. BEAR USD16.02, BULL USD32.26. Street average USD31.25. - THE ANGLE - ONLY A QUARTER OF IT WAS THE BUSINESS. Adjusted pre-tax profit improved USD33.4M: operating income +USD11.8M, interest -USD21.6M. Inside that sit a USD4.87M non-cash swap mark (15 pct), USD3.8M of insurance and tariff refunds (11 pct), USD16.7M of cash interest saving (50 pct) - and USD8.0M of operating growth. - THE SWAP MARK IS NOT CASH. The derivative note shows the interest-rate swaps booked a USD3.245M GAIN inside interest expense this quarter against a USD1.625M LOSS a year ago. Across the half, reported interest fell USD48.6M while CASH paid for interest fell USD35.0M - the USD14.08M swap swing closes the gap exactly. - THE REFUND WAS NEVER ADJUSTED OUT. MD&A discloses USD3.8M of insurance proceeds and tariff refunds inside gross margin and inside North America segment EBITDA. Strip it and Adjusted EBITDA grew 8.8 pct, not the 12.0 pct headline, and the North America margin was 30.6 pct, not the 31.6 pct printed. - THE ANNUITY DID NOT GROW. Service parts - the installed-base revenue meant to be the defensive ballast - was USD43.742M against USD43.439M, up 0.7 pct. North America parts +3.7 pct, which MD&A attributes to price increases; International parts -7.0 pct. New equipment grew 7.6 pct, Commercial-In-Home 19 pct. - THE RAISE DID NOT RAISE REVENUE. Adjusted EBITDA guidance went to +8-10 pct from +7-8 pct; revenue guidance did not move at +6-7 pct. Against the filed first half that implies second-half revenue growth of 4.1-6.0 pct (H1 was 8.0 pct) and EBITDA growth of 5.2-9.2 pct against the 12.0 pct just posted. - THE PRINT: adjusted EPS USD0.41 vs a USD0.3415 bar, +20.1 pct - but revenue MISSED at USD476.8M vs USD479.4M. Basis proven both ways: GAAP 0.28 plus 0.34 equals the filed 0.62; adjusted 0.31 plus 0.41 equals the filed 0.72. The bar was NOT cut: last year rebased plus the interest saving is USD0.344. What to watch: UP: a return to mid-single-digit service parts growth, or International revenue turning positive - it is 25 pct of the top line and went backwards this quarter. DOWN: the November 12 print, where a USD0.32 consensus on USD461M has to absorb the 4-6 pct second-half revenue growth guidance implies. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Riot Platforms (RIOT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 10-Q cleared EDGAR 17:01 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it OPENED +21.5 pct, fell back to USD19.34, and CLOSED +4.33 pct on 4.54x normal volume.) Riot Platforms signed 241 megawatts of AI data-centre leases worth USD9.8bn in seven months and issued zero new shares to pay for it. It sold 9,665 bitcoin instead - 3.16 coins for every one it mined, and 54 pct of the stack it began the year with. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - THE BULL CASE STILL CLEARS THE TAPE) — base-case value ~$11.47 vs ~$19.02 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD11.47 vs the USD19.02 close, -39.7 pct. Three roads weighted 50/20/30: asset sum of the parts USD13.42, signed contracts and treasury only USD7.03, and a 2028 balance sheet rolled forward with the convertible's shares inside the count USD11.19. BEAR USD6.94, BULL USD21.44. - THE ANGLE - RIOT PROMISED NO NEW EQUITY, AND ON SHARES IT MEANT IT. Financing activities for the half were NEGATIVE USD2.9M; the at-the-market raised USD0 against USD123.9M in 1H25. Shares went 371.6M at Dec 31 to 378.0M at Jun 30 - all restricted stock - then FELL to 375.3M on the 10-Q cover at Aug 7. - SO THE EQUITY CAME OUT OF THE TREASURY. Note 5: 18,005 bitcoin on Jan 1, 3,060 mined, 9,665 SOLD for USD732.5M, 11,380 left. That is 3.16 coins sold per coin mined against 0.46x in 1H25. Riot's own deck calls BTC sales the primary funding source for the equity component of data-centre capex. - AND THE SECOND CURRENCY IS THE CONVERTIBLE. The 0.75 pct 2030 Notes - USD594.4M principal, USD14.86 conversion, 67.2767 shares per USD1,000 = 39.99M shares - became convertible at holder option in Q3 2026, and Riot intends to settle in stock. Fully diluted 415.2M, not the 375.3M on screens. - THE MINE STOPPED PAYING. Cost to mine one bitcoin INCLUDING miner depreciation was USD90,631 against USD71,667 of production value - 126.5 pct, versus 92.4 pct a year earlier. Segment cash gross profit USD34.5M, then USD64.6M of miner depreciation. Adjusted EBITDA -USD69.7M against +USD495.3M. - THE EPS MISS IS 84 PCT NON-CASH. GAAP -USD0.68 vs a -USD0.3033 bar. Basis proven: Q1 -1.44 plus Q2 -0.68 equals the filed six-month -2.12. Add back USD74.6M of bitcoin mark, USD28.0M impairment and USD8.4M derivative marks and it is -USD0.363, a 6-cent miss. Revenue BEAT by 12.9 pct. - LIQUIDITY: the deck shows USD1.21bn. Unencumbered is USD796.8M - 5,821 of 11,380 coins are pledged to Coinbase and USD77.5M of cash is restricted, a 34.4 pct haircut. A signed megawatt costs USD9.96M and is worth USD19.17M at a 9.5 pct rate; the tape pays USD7.50M for unsigned ones. What to watch: UP: a signed Corsicana lease at Rockdale economics, worth roughly USD9.80 a share of development profit; or the Morgan Stanley bridge converting to permanent investment-grade debt. DOWN: that USD573M facility matures December 31 2026, and another half at this pace takes the stack under 5,000 coins. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Suzano (SUZ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 18:11 ET Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close, so Thursday August 13 IS the reaction session: it opened +1.12 pct, which was the high of the day, and CLOSED -0.37 pct at USD7.99 on 1.51x normal volume.) Suzano is the largest producer of hardwood market pulp on earth. It prices pulp in dollars and reports in Brazilian reais, and in Q2 2026 that split did all the damage: the realised pulp price rose 8 pct to USD599 a tonne, and adjusted EBITDA still fell 23 pct. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - THE RIGHT ASSET ON TOO MUCH DEBT) — base-case value ~$8.92 vs ~$8.11 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD8.92 vs the USD8.11 close, +10.0 pct. Three roads weighted 40/30/30: mid-cycle EBITDA of R22.0bn at 5.75x gives USD9.38, free cash flow to equity at a 14 pct cost of equity gives USD8.02, pulp at 5.5x plus paper at 7.0x gives USD9.21. BEAR USD4.83, BULL USD14.03. Reais at R5.2132. - THE ANGLE - THE PRICE TURNED AND SUZANO STILL MADE LESS. Realised pulp price USD599 a tonne, +8 pct year on year and +7 pct sequentially; PIX/FOEX hardwood rose 13.8 pct in Europe. Adjusted EBITDA fell 23 pct anyway to R4,705M, and adjusted EBITDA per tonne fell 14 pct to R1,424. - THE CURRENCY DID IT, ON BOTH SIDES. Suzano's own bridge: pulp revenue -15 pct = volume -11, average dollar against average real -11, price +8. The identical tonne fetched R3,022 against R3,147. The cost base is in reais too: all-in cash cost R972 a tonne, +16 pct. Cash margin R2,050 against R2,309. - THE BEAT IS A TREE. Other operating income carried R1,158M of NON-CASH revaluation of standing timber - 64 pct of the R1,807M reported net income, against a R73M charge a year earlier. Tax it at Brazil's 34 pct rate and diluted EPS is R0.8372 (USD0.161) - a 35.8 pct MISS on the USD0.2501 bar, not a 12 pct beat. - THE PROFIT FALL IS ONE LINE. Net financial result was NEGATIVE R10M against a POSITIVE R4,425M a year ago, as exchange gains on dollar debt shrank to R197M from R3,444M. That swing alone exceeds the entire R3,204M fall in net income. Gross margin: 24.4 pct against 35.3 pct. - THE STACK: net debt R66,089M (USD12,767M) FELL 7 pct year on year, and leverage still rose from 3.1x to 3.4x in dollars because EBITDA fell faster. On July 1 Suzano paid USD1.3bn for 51 pct of a Kimberly-Clark tissue venture (22 plants, 14 countries). Pro-forma 3.65x. Net debt per ADR is USD10.35. - TWO FREE CASH FLOWS: the headline adjusted figure is R9,423M trailing, an 18.1 pct yield. After the R5,095M of expansion capex and R1,519M of dividends it adds back, real free cash flow is R2,809M - a 5.4 pct yield. The ADR is 1:1 (Note 1). Filed diluted EPS R1.45457; ROIC 10.3 pct from 13.1 pct. What to watch: UP: a weaker real, which lifts reported revenue without a single extra tonne; or the first disclosed earnings figure for the Kimberly-Clark tissue venture, which consolidates in Q3 2026. DOWN: the full-year cash-cost target of about R800 a tonne, which needs the second half to average roughly R778. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K cleared EDGAR 16:18 ET Monday August 10, AFTER the close, so Tuesday August 11 IS the reaction session: it opened +2.41 pct at USD14.02, traded up to USD14.33, then CLOSED -8.33 pct at USD12.55 on 3.34x normal volume. By August 14 it closed USD12.64.) Brookdale is the largest US senior housing operator - 541 communities, 43,320 units, 41 states. Q2 occupancy reached 82.4 pct, up 230 bps, and RevPAR rose 8.2 pct. But in the same 515 communities held through both years, operating margin was 29.5 pct a year ago and 29.5 pct now: Brookdale's own supplemental prints the change as ZERO basis points. And the year-on-year occupancy gain has faded from +210 bps in January to +50 bps in July. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL RECOVERY ON THE WRONG CAPITAL STRUCTURE) — base-case value ~$8.36 vs ~$12.64 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD8.36 vs the USD12.64 close, -33.9 pct. Three roads weighted 40/25/35: owned assets at a 7 pct cap rate USD7.92, an equity DCF on Brookdale's own Adjusted Free Cash Flow at 11 pct USD6.53, and 12x 2027 Adjusted EBITDA USD10.18. BEAR USD5.48, BULL USD13.81. - THE ANGLE - SAME-COMMUNITY MARGIN GAINED ZERO BASIS POINTS. 29.5 pct in Q2 2025 and 29.5 pct in Q2 2026; the supplemental prints the change as 0 bps. That is on a 110 bp occupancy gain and 5.5 pct RevPAR growth. Incremental margin was 30.1 pct - the same as the average, so no operating leverage. - THE RAMP IS DECELERATING. Same-community occupancy vs the same month a year earlier: Jan +210 bps, Feb +180, Mar +120, Apr +130, May +120, Jun +90, Jul +50. Seven months of 2026 added 30 bps in total; the same seven months of 2025 added 190. Monthly reporting ends after December 2026. - WHY: LABOUR COOLED, NOTHING ELSE DID. Same-community labour rose 3.6 pct and fell to 45.2 pct of revenue from 46.1. Every other facility cost - insurance, maintenance, bad debt - rose 9.1 pct, to 25.3 pct from 24.4. The leak moved rather than closed. - THE PRINT: GAAP EPS USD0.10 vs a -USD0.0555 bar, but a USD45.4M gain on selling six communities is larger than the USD23.3M of net income it sits inside. Ex disposal, impairment, debt extinguishment and transaction cost the quarter is -USD0.045 a share - it MET. Revenue USD718.6M missed by USD17.0M. - THE STACK: net debt USD3,897M, adjusted net debt USD5,067M, 8.4x leverage, book equity NEGATIVE USD29.0M. Refinancings priced at 5.38 pct in March, 5.97 pct in June and 6.16 pct in July, against a 5.09 pct book. Adjusted EBITDA USD122.1M, +4.3 pct, but -6.9 pct sequentially. - WHAT REACHES THE EQUITY: Adjusted Free Cash Flow, Brookdale's own measure, was USD22.8M for all of 2025 and USD25.1M trailing - against a USD3.02B market value, and struck before USD22M-USD51M a year of principal. At USD12.64 the tape caps the buildings at 5.6 pct. What to watch: UP: same-community margin expanding about 100 bps as non-labour inflation normalises, worth roughly USD28M a year; or a re-acceleration in the monthly occupancy series before it is retired after December 2026. DOWN: the USD949M of 2028 maturities repricing above 6.5 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Oruka Therapeutics (ORKA) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K cleared EDGAR 07:00 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open, so August 10 IS the reaction session: opened -2.29 pct at USD96.56 and CLOSED +6.40 pct at USD105.14, on 0.68x normal volume. By August 14 it closed USD111.04, a 52-week high.) Oruka is a clinical-stage immunology company with no revenue, no debt and USD1.25B of cash, whose lead antibody ORKA-001 cleared 40 of 63 patients completely at Week 16 in EVERLAST-A. But two headline figures are understated: the release's USD1.1B cash omits a USD122.5M July share sale disclosed only in the 10-Q, and the USD6.70B screen market cap omits 11,428,149 Series B preferred shares. Fixed, the pipeline costs USD7.37B. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - GOOD SCIENCE AT A PRICE THE MODEL CANNOT REACH) — base-case value ~$54.31 vs ~$111.04 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD54.31 vs the USD111.04 close, -51.1 pct. Risk-adjusted sum-of-parts, every input an ASSUMPTION: peak sales x probability of success x 2.2, discounted 11 pct. BEAR USD19.36, BASE USD45.25, BULL USD97.04, weighted 25/45/30. - THE ANGLE - BOTH HEADLINE NUMBERS ARE UNDERSTATED. The release says cash and securities of USD1.1B at June 30. Only the 10-Q liquidity note adds that in July 2026 Oruka sold 1,499,500 shares for USD122.5M net. Pro forma cash is USD1,248.1M. The release never mentions it. - THE SHARE COUNT: the 10-Q cover says 66,209,699 common at July 31, and 137,138 Series B preferred convert 83.3332:1 into 11,428,149 more. Economic count 77,637,848 = USD8.62B, not the USD6.70B screens print. Enterprise value USD7.37B, not USD5.57B. - THE REVERSE TEST: at USD111.04, ORKA-001 alone must carry USD7.28B of risk-adjusted value - USD11.7B of peak annual sales at 50 pct odds. Skyrizi, the biggest drug in the class, did USD17.562B in 2025 (AbbVie FY25). The Street's USD153.25 needs USD17.0B. - THE QUARTER: R&D USD43.3M (+80 pct, incl a one-time USD5.0M Halozyme upfront), G&A USD6.9M, opex USD50.1M, interest income USD8.9M, net loss USD41.2M, EPS -USD0.55. No warrant or preferred revaluation - other income is USD4 THOUSAND. Pure burn. - RUNWAY IS NOT THE CONSTRAINT: USD1,248.1M against USD56.7M of H1 operating cash use is about 44 quarters. The calendar is: EVERLAST-A Week 28 end-Q3, EVERLAST-B Week 16 Q4, ORKA-004 into clinic Q4, EVERLAST-A 52-week DECEMBER. Cash funds a BLA FILING only. - STACKED THIRD-PARTY ECONOMICS: ORKA-001 and ORKA-002 are licensed in from Paragon Therapeutics, a related party whose board Fairmount appoints. Low single-digit royalty each; Halozyme takes MID single-digit plus USD150.0M of sales milestones; WuXi under 1 pct. What to watch: UP: December 2026 EVERLAST-A 52-week data showing responses hold at six-month dosing intervals, which turns convenience into a label and lifts our 50 pct probability of success; also EVERLAST-B Week 16 across 187 patients in Q4. DOWN: any loss of response between Week 28 and Week 52, or a Phase 3 program that slips past 1H 2027. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Embraer (EMBJ) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 06:19 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open, so August 10 IS the reaction session: opened +8.00 pct at USD78.85 and CLOSED just +1.08 pct at USD73.80, then fell to USD71.39 - BELOW the pre-print close - the next day.) Embraer posted its best-ever second quarter - USD2,235.3M of revenue, up 23 pct, 65 aircraft delivered, a record USD34.5B backlog - and lifted 2026 guidance. But its own release splits the ~USD110M increase into USD68M of tax credit, USD38M of tariff exemption and USD4M of improved business. Delivery and revenue guidance never moved. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A GOOD PLANEMAKER ON A FULL PRICE, WITH A BIG SECOND-HALF RAMP TO PROVE) — base-case value ~$68.39 vs ~$75.38 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD68.39 per ADS vs the USD75.38 close, -9.3 pct. A probability-weighted 2028 grid: BEAR USD8.9B revenue at 9.0 pct exited at 11.5x = USD41.97; BASE USD10.0B at 10.5 pct at 14.0x = USD67.32; BULL USD11.0B at 12.0 pct at 16.0x = USD96.97. Weighted 25/50/25, net debt USD123.6M off each, discounted 2 years at 10 pct. - THE ANGLE - A USD110M RAISE WITH USD4M OF BUSINESS IN IT: Embraer's own release attributes the increase to the 2026 adjusted EBIT midpoint to (a) USD68M from an extraordinary tax credit, (b) USD38M from the exemption of direct US import tariffs in 2H26 and (c) USD4M from an improved business outlook. That is 96 pct tax and trade policy. Deliveries were reiterated at 80-85 commercial and 160-170 executive jets; revenue was reiterated at USD8.2-8.5B. - THE CLEAN MARGIN WENT DOWN: adjusted EBIT margin printed 13.3 pct against 10.5 pct. Embraer says that ex the USD68M credit and ex the USD8M of tariffs it paid, the margin was 10.6 pct. Do the same to Q2 2025 - add back its USD10.4M of tariffs - and that quarter was 11.1 pct. Revenue grew 23 pct and the underlying operating margin fell about half a point. - THE CASH IS CUSTOMER MONEY: adjusted free cash flow without Eve was USD401.0M, and contract liabilities - non-refundable advances taken before delivery, mainly Defence - rose USD301.2M. Strip that and the quarter is USD99.8M. The half is still MINUS USD46.1M, so the guided USD400M needs USD446.1M in 2H26. Eve used USD117.8M and is excluded. - THE ADS TRAP: 1 ADS = 4 ORDINARY SHARES, proven inside the filing - EPS of USD1.1880 per ADS divided by USD0.2970 per ordinary share is exactly 4.000. Embraer reports in US DOLLARS under IFRS. Our vendor's calendar carries USD1.22 (adjusted net income per ADS) while its income statement carries R$6.24 - reais at an unstated 5.186 rate - and labels neither. - SEGMENTS AND BACKLOG: Executive Aviation revenue USD725M (+32 pct) at a 23.4 pct adjusted EBIT margin, only 16.1 pct ex-credit and ex-tariff. Commercial Aviation revenue USD625M (+8 pct), gross margin down 10.1 to 8.4 pct and EBIT margin down 4.3 to 2.9 pct on legacy contracts. Backlog USD34.5B (+16 pct): Defence +42 pct, Commercial +15 pct, Services +12 pct, Executive just +5 pct. What to watch: UP: a September quarter at 10.0-10.6 pct adjusted EBIT margin with NO tax credit inside it, plus deliveries at the top of the 80-85 commercial guide. DOWN: a fourth-quarter delivery miss, executive-jet backlog still growing at only 5 pct, or the tariff exemption being withdrawn. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Legend Biotech (LEGN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 07:53 ET Tuesday August 11, BEFORE the open, so August 11 IS the reaction session: closed +5.66 pct at USD21.83 on 1.6x volume, then gave all of it back - USD20.37 by Friday, 1.4 pct BELOW the pre-print close.) CARVYKTI sold USD657M worldwide in the June quarter, up 50 pct, and Legend printed its first operating profit at USD57.7M. But USD56.0M of that was a one-time Janssen milestone. Strip it and the CARVYKTI franchise contributed MINUS USD2.3M - USD190.1M of gross profit against USD192.4M of operating costs. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - AN UNSIGNED CHINA TAX DEAL AND AN INTERIM CEO SIT UNDER THE NUMBERS) — base-case value ~$20.21 vs ~$20.37 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD20.21 per ADS vs the USD20.37 close, -0.8 pct. Ladder: CARVYKTI free cash flow 2026-2035 at 11.5 pct = USD2,172M, plus a USD406M terminal = USD2,578M franchise; plus USD965M cash, less USD156M owed to the partner, plus USD230M of risk-adjusted milestones and USD300M of pipeline = USD3,917M over 193.8M ADSs. - THE ANGLE - THE PROFIT IS A MILESTONE, NOT A MARGIN: operating income of USD57.7M decomposes exactly. Collaboration gross profit USD190.1M less Legend's own operating costs USD192.4M = MINUS USD2.3M from the CARVYKTI franchise; plus USD60.0M of net licence income, of which USD56.0M is one-time Janssen milestones. Ex-milestone, operating income is USD1.7M. - THE ADS TRAP: 1 ADS = 2 ordinary shares, proven by June's offering of 7,700,000 ADSs representing 15,400,000 ordinary shares. Legend reports EPS of USD0.09 - that is PER ORDINARY SHARE. Per ADS, the security that trades at USD20.37, the same USD33.2M is USD0.18 basic. Adjusted net income of USD63.1M is USD0.34 per ADS. Data vendors publish both bases and label neither. - THE HEADLINE WAS FOUR WEEKS OLD: Legend pre-released CARVYKTI net trade sales of approximately USD657M in a separate 6-K on July 15, 27 days before the print. US sales grew 32 pct to USD472M, everywhere else 128 pct to USD185M. J and J books the sale; Legend recognises a pro-rata 50 pct as collaboration revenue - USD328.5M less USD2.4M of currency = USD326.1M. - THE CASH DISAGREES: the profitable quarter used USD20.9M of operating cash, and the half used USD106.0M against six-month operating income of USD7.9M. Legend repaid USD170.9M of debt as the partner's interest-bearing advanced funding fell from USD319.1M to USD156.4M. June's raise - 7.7M ADSs at USD29.35 - substantially went to paying J and J back; the greenshoe expired unexercised. - THE MARGIN AND THE MULTIPLE: collaboration gross margin was 58.3 pct in June against 41.2 pct in March, and management guided September to the low-50s and December to the mid-50s - both BELOW what was just printed. On EV over annualised gross profit Legend costs 4.0x against a five-peer median of 13.3x, but its own opex of USD770M a year is 99 pct of that gross profit. Effective tax rate: 40.2 pct. What to watch: UP: a September quarter that holds the 58.3 pct margin instead of the guided low-50s, an operating profit with no milestone in it, or a permanent CEO. DOWN: bispecifics taking 2L-4L myeloma share, a margin print in the 40s, or a PRC tax assessment above the accrual. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Golar LNG (GLNG) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 6-K cleared EDGAR 06:57 ET Thursday August 13, BEFORE the open, so August 13 IS the reaction session: opened +8.2 pct at USD55.27, closed +0.27 pct at USD51.21 on 2.4x volume.) Golar LNG printed its best quarter ever - revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct, Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct - and the stock gave back 97 pct of an 8.2 pct opening gain by the close. The same release committed USD2.45B to a fourth FLNG that has no charter, in the fortnight FLNG Hilli finished Cameroon and stopped earning until H2 2027. THE CALL: REDUCE (3/5, MEDIUM - A LIVE SALE PROCESS IS THE ONE THING NO DCF CAN PRICE) — base-case value ~$34.00 vs ~$52.49 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: REDUCE, 3/5. Fair value USD34 vs the USD52.49 close, -35 pct, from a sum-of-the-parts DCF: FLNG Gimi USD1,485M at 9 pct, Hilli USD2,181M and Esperanza USD2,758M at 11 pct, less USD1,013M capex to finish them, less USD707M for the uncontracted FLNG Four, less USD450M overhead, plus USD77M of stakes = USD4,331M EV, less USD1,773M net debt, plus a USD914M commodity tranche. - THE ANGLE - A FOURTH SHIP WITH NO CUSTOMER: on August 12 Golar signed the EPC for a second 3.5 MTPA MKII FLNG at a fully-delivered USD2.45B for year-end 2029 delivery. It lifts controlled capacity 41 pct to over 12 MTPA - and it has no charter. Management puts the earnings uplift at ~50 pct, explicitly conditional on chartering it at Esperanza terms. - THE PRINT: revenue USD130.5M up 72 pct but USD0.8M under the USD131.3M consensus; Adjusted EBITDA USD127.4M up 159 pct and up 21 pct on Q1's USD105.6M; net income attributable to Golar USD38.3M after USD17.6M went to the Gimi minority; USD29M of non-cash items inside it (a USD38M mark-to-market loss, a USD7M swap gain, a USD2M disposal gain). - THERE IS NO EPS LINE: the 6-K prints revenue, Adjusted EBITDA and net income and stops. GAAP diluted attributable to Golar is USD0.37 (USD38.3M over 102.1M shares). The USD0.54 the wires carried maps to total net income of USD55.8M - USD0.547 a share - which is BEFORE the minority interest in FLNG Gimi. The 0.547 estimate it was scored against is the same basis. - THE TROUGH: FLNG Hilli's 8-year Cameroon contract ended July 27 after 156 cargoes at 100 pct economic uptime, and it earns nothing until H2 2027. USD37.4M of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA - 29 pct - was realised commodity gains under that contract. Consensus models Q3 revenue of USD80M against USD130.5M delivered, and EPS of MINUS USD0.03. Full-year EPS goes USD0.97 to USD0.53 before jumping to USD4.33 in 2028. - THE FUNDING BRIDGE: USD3.53B of committed capex - USD279M left on the Hilli refit, USD800M to finish Esperanza, USD2.45B for FLNG Four - against USD908M of Total Golar Cash and a new USD600M RCF at SOFR plus 3.00 pct for 18 months. A USD2.02B gap still to raise. Hilli is the obvious source: USD493M of sale-and-leaseback debt against USD5.7B of backlog. - THE BACKLOG AND THE MULTIPLE: USD16.6B of Adjusted EBITDA backlog - USD8.0B Esperanza, USD5.7B Hilli, USD2.9B Gimi at 70 pct - and a 2029 run-rate of USD838M. EV is USD7.13B: 17.5x trailing Adjusted EBITDA of USD407M, 14.0x the June quarter annualised. Only at 2029, fully funded, does it reach 9.8x - where Cheniere (10.0x), Excelerate (10.9x) and CCEC (9.9x) trade TODAY. What to watch: UP: a long-term charter for FLNG Four on Esperanza terms, a Hilli refinancing that releases liquidity against its USD5.7B backlog, or a bid out of the strategic review. DOWN: Esperanza slipping past Q4 2027, the San Matias pipeline financing failing, or an equity raise to fill the USD2.02B gap. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

monday.com (MNDY) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Form 6-K cleared EDGAR at 07:00 ET Monday August 10, BEFORE the open - so August 10 IS the reaction session. It opened down 12.6 pct at USD81.40, bottomed at USD80.22 and closed down 4.84 pct at USD88.62, then USD87.52 by August 14.) monday.com beat by 33 pct - non-GAAP diluted EPS of USD1.48 against a USD1.11 bar, revenue of USD364.6M up 22 pct, record non-GAAP operating income of USD61.1M. Underneath: 64 pct of that per-share growth was BOUGHT not earned, the entire USD870M buyback is spent, and the Q3 guide implies about 1 pct sequential growth. Yet at USD87.52 the enterprise value is USD2.82B - 1.9x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, with USD1.07B net cash and no debt. BUY, 3/5, fair value USD140. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - CHEAP, BUT THE CATEGORY QUESTION IS UNRESOLVED) — base-case value ~$140.00 vs ~$87.52 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD140 vs the USD87.52 close, +60 pct. Four methods converge and all four clear the price: a 5-year DCF at 10 pct gives USD155; 18x guided free cash flow plus net cash USD140; 3.0x guided revenue plus net cash USD123; 26x the Street's 2027 EPS of USD5.56 USD144. - THE ANGLE - THE BUYBACK IS FINISHED: non-GAAP diluted EPS rose USD0.38 y/y, but at the prior-year share count only USD0.14 came from earnings. USD0.24 - 64 pct - came from retiring 16.6 pct of the shares. The whole USD870M authorisation is spent, USD735M in H1, and no shares remain available. - THE PRINT: revenue USD364.6M up 21.9 pct (incl. 110bp of FX help); a GAAP operating LOSS of USD1.5M; RECORD non-GAAP operating income USD61.1M on a 17 pct margin vs 15 pct; non-GAAP diluted EPS USD1.48 vs a USD1.11 bar; GAAP EPS USD0.08. The bridge: USD41.2M of SBC plus USD21.4M restructuring. - THE GUIDE IS THE STORY: Q3 revenue guided USD368-370M against USD364.6M delivered - about 1.2 pct sequentially, versus 5.9 pct a year ago. The FY2026 revenue range did NOT move after a USD9.6M beat, so implied H2 revenue was quietly cut. Implied Q4 is about USD385M, up 15 pct. - THE RAISE THAT NEVER REACHES CASH: FY2026 non-GAAP operating income guidance went USD185-191M to USD230-234M - a USD44M raise. Adjusted free-cash-flow guidance stayed at USD280-290M, unchanged to the dollar, because USD30-35M of the restructuring is cash severance still to be paid. - THE COHORTS: customers above USD500k ARR grew 68 pct to 114 and those above USD100k grew 37 pct to 2,019. But customers with more than 10 users - 82 pct of ALL recurring revenue - grew just 6 pct to 65,783, adding 767 in the quarter. Net dollar retention slipped to 109 from 110 in March. - THE BALANCE SHEET AND THE MULTIPLE: USD1,072.8M of cash and securities, USD24.14 a share, 28 pct of the market cap, and NO debt. Enterprise value USD2.82B is 1.92x guided revenue and 9.9x guided free cash flow, against 30.4x last September. A reverse-DCF implies MINUS 0.1 pct growth forever. What to watch: UP: the July 22 restructuring - a 20 pct workforce cut - shows up as margin in the March quarter and free cash flow turns back up as severance clears. DOWN: net dollar retention breaks below 105 (109 now, from 110 in March), cash flow falls y/y a fourth straight quarter, or 2027 revenue guidance lands in the low teens. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Cerebras Systems (CBRS) Q2 2026 — Second quarter 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:09 ET Wednesday August 12, nine minutes AFTER the close - so the reaction is Thursday August 13, down 11.9 pct to USD231.01, then USD218.98 on August 14.) The release led with core revenue of USD209.9M, up 103 pct, and a core net loss of only USD6.9M. The 10-Q income statement says revenue was USD180.1M and the net loss was USD450.5M, or USD2.98 a share. Both are correct. The largest item between them is USD44.3M of stock Cerebras granted to its own customers, which GAAP charges AGAINST revenue and core adds back. We rate CBRS AVOID, 3/5, fair value USD91. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A REAL BUSINESS, AT A PRICE THAT NEEDS A DECADE TO GO RIGHT) — base-case value ~$91.00 vs ~$218.98 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value USD91 against the USD218.98 close, -58 pct. A probability-weighted scenario DCF at a 12.5 pct cost of capital: bear USD29 at 30 pct, base USD70 at 45 pct, bull USD204 at 25 pct. The close is 1.07x our BULL case. - THE ANGLE - THE ADD-BACK IS THE GROWTH: GAAP revenue USD180.1M, core revenue USD209.9M. The largest item in the bridge is USD44.3M of customer-warrant amortisation, stock granted to Cerebras customers, which GAAP charges AGAINST revenue and core adds back. - BEAT OR MISS - BOTH WERE PUBLISHED: one vendor showed USD209.9M against a USD190.6M estimate, a 10 pct BEAT. Benzinga showed USD180.1M against USD194.2M, a 7.3 pct MISS. The bar was core: at the Q1 print Cerebras guided Q2 core revenue to about USD194.0M. - THE SIGN FLIP: GAAP hardware revenue FELL 23 pct to USD54.1M from USD70.3M. Core hardware revenue ROSE 17 pct to USD82.1M, because USD28.0M of the warrant charge sits there. GAAP hardware gross profit was USD978 THOUSAND, a 1.8 pct margin against 33.6 pct. - SEQUENTIAL: GAAP revenue went BACKWARDS, USD193.4M in Q1 to USD180.1M in Q2, -6.9 pct, while core went USD191.3M to USD209.9M, +9.7 pct. GAAP gross margin fell from 45 pct to 14.2 pct. GAAP net loss USD450.5M, minus USD2.98 a share; core net loss USD6.9M. - STILL TO COME: USD1.13B of customer-warrant assets are charged against reported revenue through October 2031, which is 128 pct of the whole FY2026 core revenue guide. Three customers were 34, 32 and 10 pct of Q2 revenue, and two are 76 pct of receivables. - CASH AND BACKLOG: first-half operating cash flow minus USD47.5M and capex USD548.9M, so free cash flow of minus USD596.4M, a capital spend of 1.47x revenue. Liquidity USD8.6B. RPO USD25.4B, 29x the FY2026 guide, but only 22 pct converts inside 24 months. - VALUATION: market cap USD52.0B on 237.6M shares in three classes; most feeds quote USD49.6B and miss a class. EV USD44.3B is 50.1x the FY2026 core guide and 61.5x annualised GAAP revenue. A reverse DCF needs about USD55B of revenue by 2036, 51 pct a year. - THE STREET: 7 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, average target USD300.50 in a USD279 to USD330 range. All four dated targets post-date the print - Morgan Stanley USD279, Wedbush USD290, Mizuho USD300 cut from USD310, UBS USD330, every one on August 13. We differ. What to watch: UP: GAAP gross margin recovers toward the 45 pct printed in the March quarter, capital spending falls below one dollar per dollar of revenue, or any single customer drops below 20 pct of the top line. DOWN: core gross margin lands at the bottom of the 38 to 40 pct guided for Q3 while the capacity build holds, which moves the base case toward the bear case at USD29. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Madison Square Garden Entertainment (MSGE) Q4 FY2026 — Fiscal Q4 and full-year FY2026 (year ended June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 08:09 ET Wednesday August 12, BEFORE the open - so the reaction session is August 12 itself, up 11.40 pct to USD88.42, the highest close of the year, then back to USD85.44 by August 14.) MSG Entertainment reported the best year in its history - revenue of USD1.06B up 13 pct, adjusted operating income of USD262.2M up 18 pct, diluted earnings of USD1.38 against USD0.77 - and did all of it without adding a single seat. It owns or leases the same five rooms it owned a year ago, so every dollar of the USD118.1M increase came from price, yield or a fuller calendar. At USD85.44 the market pays 16.5x adjusted operating income against 7.6x at last August's low. We rate MSGE REDUCE, 4/5, fair value USD60. THE CALL: REDUCE (4/5, HIGH - AN EXCELLENT YEAR, ALREADY PAID FOR TWICE OVER) — base-case value ~$60.00 vs ~$85.44 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: REDUCE, 4/5. Fair value USD60 against the USD85.44 close, -29.8 pct. Four independent methods converge: a ten-year DCF on owner earnings gives USD57, 12.5x EV to adjusted operating income USD63, 27x the Street's FY2027 estimate USD63, owner earnings capitalised at 3.5 pct USD54. Not one reaches the market price. - THE ANGLE - NO SECOND GARDEN: revenue rose 13 pct to a record USD1.06B with ZERO new venues and ZERO new seats. The same five rooms - The Garden, Radio City, the Beacon, the Chicago Theatre, the Infosys Theater - seat 2,800 to 21,000, and that is fixed. All growth is price, yield or calendar density. - THE FY2026 BRIDGE: entertainment revenue rose USD97.8M - concerts USD33.4M, Christmas Spectacular USD20.9M, the MSG Sports arena-licence split USD17.5M, other live events USD13.2M, sponsorship and suites USD10.9M. The 10-K notes the concert gain was partly offset by FEWER concerts at the theatres. - THE PRINT: FY2026 revenue USD1,060.8M up 12.5 pct; operating income USD141.5M up 15.9 pct; adjusted operating income USD262.2M up 17.8 pct on a 24.7 pct margin; net income USD66.2M up 76.8 pct; diluted EPS USD1.38 vs USD0.77. Fiscal Q4 revenue USD196.3M up 27 pct on an operating LOSS of USD8.6M. - THE CASH IS HALF TIMING: operating cash flow tripled to USD351.4M, but USD180.8M of it - 51 pct - is working capital, mostly USD126.0M of accrued liabilities the 10-K ties to promoter event-settlement timing. Strip every working-capital line and cash generation was USD170.6M vs USD159.2M, up 7 pct. - CONCENTRATION AND TAX: one 92-year-old Christmas show is 18 pct of annual revenue, grown by 15 extra performances and higher ticket yield in the same 6,000-seat hall. The effective tax rate is 38 pct - 21 points federal, 16 New York State and City, 4 of disallowed pay - so MSGE keeps 62 cents per pre-tax dollar. - WHAT MANAGEMENT DID: MSGE repurchased 623,271 Class A shares in FY2026 for about USD25M, an average of USD40.11. It bought NOTHING in the June quarter and left USD44.8M of authority unused at USD85.44. Net debt is USD285M, just 1.09x adjusted operating income against a 3.50x covenant. The balance sheet is not the issue. What to watch: UP: management restarts the buyback here - it bought 623,271 shares in FY2026 at an average of USD40.11, none at all in the June quarter, and USD44.8M of authority sits unused. DOWN: the September quarter, reported early November, decelerates toward the low single digits the Street already models, and 16.5x compresses toward the 12.4x 200-day average. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

International Seaways (INSW) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 07:30 ET on Monday August 10, BEFORE the open - so the reaction session is Monday August 10 itself, down 2.18 pct to USD90.40. The shares then recovered to USD97.05 by Friday August 14, a 12-month closing high.) International Seaways printed the best quarter in its ten-year history - record net income of USD294.9M, record adjusted EBITDA of USD345.2M, record free cash flow of USD260.7M and the largest dividend it has ever declared - and the shares closed DOWN 2.18 pct on the day. The whole quarter is rate, not scale: revenue days FELL 17.1 pct because seven ships were sold in the first quarter, while the blended TCE rate went to USD79,726 a day from USD28,740. At USD97.05 the market pays about 1.20x the value of the fleet itself. We rate INSW HOLD, 3/5, fair value USD83. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - A SUPERB QUARTER, AT A PRICE ABOVE THE FLEET THAT EARNED IT) — base-case value ~$83.00 vs ~$97.05 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value USD83 against the USD97.05 close, -14.5 pct. Built from mid-cycle distributable cash of USD9.34 a share (USD42,500 a day blended TCE over 22,000 revenue days, less USD21,341 of cash breakeven) capitalised at 11 pct, blended with net asset value of USD81.04. - THE ANGLE - RATE, NOT SCALE: revenue days FELL 17.1 pct to 5,446 from 6,570 after seven ships were sold in Q1, yet TCE revenue rose 129.9 pct. The blended rate went to USD79,726 a day from USD28,740, up 2.77x. Every dollar of the increase is price. None of it is volume. - THE PRINT: shipping revenue USD467.3M up 138.8 pct; TCE revenue USD434.2M up 129.9 pct; adjusted EBITDA USD345.2M up 240 pct; net income USD294.9M against USD61.6M; diluted EPS USD5.91 against USD1.25; free cash flow USD260.7M, beating the prior record by nearly USD100M. All company records. - THE BAR AND THE BASIS: GAAP diluted EPS and adjusted EPS are BOTH USD5.91 this quarter - the only reconciling item was a USD43,000 disposal LOSS. Consensus was USD5.55 on one feed and USD5.28 on another, so the beat is 6 to 12 pct. Q1 2026's USD5.75 included USD88M of vessel gains, about USD1.77 a share. - NO HEDGE IN THE BOOK: the time charters are not fixed. The VLCC charter bucket earned USD214,216 a day against USD118,883 on spot, on profit sharing. Only 13 vessels are on charter, averaging 1.5 years and USD240M of contracted revenue to expiry - against USD434M earned in this one quarter. - THE DIVIDEND: a record USD5.05 declared August 7, payable September 24 to holders of record September 10. It costs USD250M against USD260.7M of free cash flow, so it consumes 96 pct of it. Policy is 85 pct of adjusted net income, so it tracks the spot rate. LTM declared USD12.61 is 13.0 pct at USD97.05. - PRICED ABOVE THE STEEL: the company's own approximately 6 pct net loan-to-value implies a fleet market value of USD3.94B against USD2.19B of carrying value. Marked to it, NAV is USD81.04 a share and the stock trades at 1.20x. The Street is 10 buy and 3 hold, but its USD93.33 average target sits BELOW the close. What to watch: UP: the September-quarter blended TCE rate, reported in early November, prints above USD42,500 a day again - which would say our mid-cycle assumption is too low - or the shares move back toward the USD81.04 of net asset value. DOWN: the blended rate normalises toward USD30,000 a day, which is only USD3.82 a share of cash on this cost base, and vessel values re-rate with it, taking the asset floor down alongside the earnings. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Resideo (REZI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to July 4; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:18 ET on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close - so the reaction session is Thursday August 13, down 20.42 pct to USD20.46 on 7.9M shares, 3.3x normal volume.) Resideo beat on revenue, on Adjusted EBITDA and on Adjusted EPS, printed a record 43.6 pct gross margin at Products and Solutions, and fell 20.42 pct the next session. The reason given was that 2026 guidance came in USD341M of EBITDA below consensus. It did not. Resideo spun off ADI Global Distribution on August 3, ten days before the print, and consensus had not been rebased. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - THE SELL-OFF WAS MOSTLY ARITHMETIC, THE DISCOUNT IS ONLY MODEST) — base-case value ~$23.27 vs ~$20.50 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD23.27 against the USD20.50 close, +13.5 pct, from a ten-year owner-earnings DCF off the company's own guidance at a 9.0 pct discount rate and 2.25 pct terminal growth. At 9.5 pct the model prints USD20.91 - almost exactly the tape. We are BELOW all three post-spin Street targets. - THE PHANTOM CUT: FY26 Adjusted EBITDA consensus was USD956M on the OLD consolidated company; the standalone guide is USD605-625M. Oppenheimer, carrying USD949M before the print, rebased its own standalone number to USD611M - four million BELOW the USD615M guide midpoint. Nothing was cut. The models had not caught up. - THE PRINT: revenue USD1,981M, up 2.0 pct, a record. Products and Solutions USD695M up 4.4 pct, ADI USD1,286M up 0.7 pct. P and S gross margin 43.6 pct, up 70bps, the 13th straight quarter of expansion. Adjusted EBITDA USD249M up 18.6 pct. Adjusted EPS USD0.83 vs USD0.66. GAAP diluted USD0.51. - THE BAR: one widely used data feed shows a USD0.4695 estimate, making this a 77 pct beat. That feed's estimate has landed BELOW its own reported actual in each of the last five quarters, by 18 to 43 pct. The real consensus was USD0.68 and the real beat was 22.1 pct. Revenue beat a USD1,940M bar by 2.1 pct. - WHAT THE RECORD WAS MADE OF: USD27M of tariff refunds sit inside that gross margin, and about USD20M of it was earned by ADI, which left on August 3. A USD77M gain on terminating the Honeywell Tax Matters Agreement sits in other income, against USD44M of deferred tax assets written off and USD88M of cash paid out. - THE BALANCE SHEET IMPROVED: total debt went USD3,622M to USD2,322M - USD400M of notes went with ADIG and a USD900M dividend from ADIG retired the 2028 term loan in full plus USD382M of the 2031 tranche. Net debt USD1,773M is 2.9x guided EBITDA against 3.3x consolidated before the spin. USD500M revolver undrawn. - WHAT NO SCREEN SHOWS: on August 3 the preferred conversion price was reset from USD26.92 to USD18.844. At a USD20.50 close that is in the money - 350,000 preferred shares, USD350M of liquidation preference, about 18.6M shares, 12.2 pct dilution. Separately, one data feed prints a USD4,461M market value; the real figure is USD3,113M on 151,847,378 shares. What to watch: UP: Q3 Adjusted EBITDA lands at the top of the USD145-155M guide, the extra USD200M term loan repayment completes, and the 13-quarter gross margin run continues. DOWN: the large OEM security customer slowdown proves to be a pattern rather than one contract, margin stalls, and the preferred converts at USD18.844 into 18.6M shares. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

EquipmentShare (EQPT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months to June 30; the Item 2.02 8-K cleared EDGAR at 16:48 ET on Wednesday August 12, AFTER the close - so the reaction session is Thursday August 13, up 3.53 pct to USD21.41 on 5.0M shares.) EquipmentShare grew revenue 26 pct to USD1,449M and Rental Segment revenue 39.5 pct, and reported Adjusted Core EBITDA of USD531M - so it now screens at 4.4x EV/EBITDA against United Rentals at 10.8x. That 4.4x is the wrong number: 56.2 pct of the fleet it rents out belongs to third-party OWN Program participants. THE CALL: SPEC BUY (3/5, MEDIUM - THE DISCOUNT IS REAL, BUT HALF OF IT IS AN ADD-BACK) — base-case value ~$24.83 vs ~$20.63 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SPEC BUY, 3/5. Fair value USD24.83 against the USD20.63 close, about 20 pct upside, at 7.0x the FY2026 Adjusted Core EBITDA guidance midpoint of USD2,002M with the leased fleet in enterprise value at the company's own USD4,090M appraisal - within 1.3 pct of the USD24.50 median of the four post-May Street targets. - THE FLEET: original equipment cost under management was USD9,851M at June 30, up 34 pct - USD4,235M EquipmentShare-owned, USD5,533M OWN Program fleet owned by third-party participants, USD83M leased. That is 56.2 pct by dollars, 89,775 machines by count. Guidance holds it at 55-60 pct of OEC. - THE ADD-BACKS: net income of USD19M plus tax, USD113M of D&A, USD73M of interest and USD26M of stock comp gives EBITDA of USD245M. Add USD234M of OWN payouts and USD60M of start-up costs and you get Adjusted Core EBITDA of USD531M - 55.4 pct of it is those two lines. The payout share has gone 39.8 to 43.8 to 47.8 pct. - WHAT THE PAYOUTS ARE: the 10-Q accounts for the OWN Program under ASC 842 as a lease in which EquipmentShare is the LESSEE. The rent is a share of what each machine earns, so it is a VARIABLE lease payment excluded from the lease liability - the balance sheet's USD769M supports the real estate, not the fleet. - LEVERAGE AND CASH: the company's own schedule divides USD3,263M of net debt by EBITDA of USD847M PLUS USD245M of start-up costs to print 3.0x - not by Adjusted Core EBITDA, on which the same debt prints 1.7x. Meanwhile operating activities USED USD142M of cash in the first half. United Rentals runs 1.8x. - IS THE ADD-BACK FAIR? On the margin, yes, and we say so: a dollar of OWN fleet costs 15.1 pct a year in payouts, a dollar of owned fleet 14.7 pct in depreciation and interest. The MULTIPLE is where it breaks - enterprise value covers only the USD4,235M the company actually owns, while the EBITDA carries all USD9,851M. - THE MULTIPLE, REPAIRED: put the leased fleet into enterprise value at the USD4,090M appraisal and EQPT is at 6.5x guided EBITDA; take the USD957M of guided payouts out of EBITDA instead and it is 8.5x. United Rentals is 10.8x. The screen says a 59 pct discount; corrected it is 40 pct - and a half turn is USD3.95 a share. What to watch: UP: mature sites reach the guided 264 from 186 while start-up costs stay near USD60M a quarter, and OWN appraisals hold near 74 pct of cost. DOWN: used-equipment values soften, enrolment slows, and the fleet has to come back on balance sheet at 7.125 pct. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

GDS Holdings Limited (GDS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the Form 6-K hit EDGAR at 08:15 ET on Thursday August 13, before the open, so Thursday IS the reaction session): net income RMB837.6M against a RMB70.6M loss, revenue RMB3,088.0M (USD455.1M) up 6.5 pct, guidance raised. The stock closed up 6.20 pct on 2.66x volume. GDS swung to a RMB837.6M net profit, raised full-year revenue, adjusted EBITDA and capex guidance, and the ADSs closed up 6.20 pct. What is in dispute is where the profit came from: share of results of equity method investees contributed RMB959.9M, a non-cash dilution gain booked when DayOne - which GDS does not consolidate - issued Series C preferred shares. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MEDIUM - REAL ASSETS, BUT THE MOVE WAS PAID FOR AN ACCOUNTING ENTRY) — base-case value ~$32.30 vs ~$34.41 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Scenario-weighted fair value USD32.30 against the USD34.41 close - 6.1 pct below the tape and 42 pct below the USD55.83 Street average. That fair value lands almost exactly on the USD32.74 PRE-print close, which is the point: the print itself earned none of the 6.20 pct move. - THE PROFIT IS ONE LINE: income before tax and before equity-method results was RMB91.2M; income tax was RMB213.5M. So after tax and before that line the quarter LOST RMB122.3M. Share of results of equity method investees added RMB959.9M - 114.6 pct of reported net income, more than all of it. - AND IT IS NOT CASH: the company states the gain arose mainly on dilution of its holding in DayOne after DayOne issued Series C preferred shares. GDS sold nothing and received nothing. Ex that line, income available to ordinary holders was minus USD0.12 per ADS, versus USD0.61 reported. - THE FEED HAS THE UNITS WRONG: GDS reports in renminbi and its USD column is a convenience translation at RMB6.7851. FMP epsActual of 0.52 is the RMB per ORDINARY share figure, against a near-zero USD-per-ADS estimate. Eight ordinary shares make one ADS, proven off the filing. - OPERATIONS ARE THIN, NOT BROKEN: revenue grew 6.5 pct but adjusted EBITDA only 2.5 pct, with margin down 180bp to 45.5 pct and gross margin down 230bp to 21.5 pct on utility costs. Income from operations of RMB439.2M covers net interest of RMB366.8M just 1.20 times, against 1.02 times a year ago. - THE RAISE IS ARITHMETIC, NOT AN UPGRADE: full-year adjusted EBITDA was lifted to RMB5,900-6,100M, but H1 already delivered RMB3,354.6M. The implied second half is RMB2,645M - about RMB1,323M a quarter against the RMB1,406M just reported, an implied margin of 41.4 pct versus 45.5 pct. - AND THE CAPEX HAS NOT LANDED: guidance went from about RMB9,000M to about RMB10,000M while H1 cash capex was only RMB2,019.8M, so H2 must spend roughly RMB7,980M - 3.95x the first-half rate - against RMB6,000M of full-year EBITDA. Net debt is already RMB31.2B, or 5.20x that EBITDA. What to watch: UP: the utility-cost drag stops so gross margin stabilises above 21.5 pct; the second C-REIT injection completes at a price that validates the estate; utilisation climbs past 80 pct. DOWN: the implied H2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 41.4 pct proves optimistic; the RMB4.2B of convertibles due inside twelve months reprice higher. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

InterContinental Hotels Group PLC (IHG) H1 2026 — H1 2026 (six months ended June 30; the Form 6-K hit EDGAR at 06:08 ET on Tuesday August 11, before the open, so Tuesday IS the reaction session): adjusted EPS 274.7c vs a 265c bar, IFRS basic EPS 283.3c, down 5.6 pct. The adjusted line BEAT; the stock rose 0.15 pct. IHG grew adjusted EPS 13.3 pct, lifted fee margin 120bp to 65.9 pct and raised the interim dividend 10 pct for a fifth straight year - and the shares closed up 0.15 pct. The half is not in dispute. The price is: 4.6 of those 13.3 points came from a 4.0 pct fall in the share count, not from profit. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MEDIUM - A SUPERB BUSINESS AT A DOUBLE-COUNTED PRICE) — base-case value ~$118.68 vs ~$160.22 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 120.26 USD against the 160.22 USD close - 24.9 pct below the tape and 26 pct below the 162.83 USD Street average. Ten years of IHG's own adjusted free cash flow discounted at a 9.33 pct cost of equity: bear 85.94, base 118.68, bull 157.75. Even the bull case is below the price. - THE 13 PCT IS PART ARITHMETIC: adjusted earnings grew 8.71 pct, from 379M to 412M USD. The basic weighted average share count fell 4.03 pct, from 156.3M to 150.0M. 1.0871 divided by 0.9597 is 1.1327 - so 4.6 of the 13.3 points, about 34 pct of the headline growth, is the denominator, not profit. - AND THE DENOMINATOR IS NOT FREE: adjusted interest expense rose 16.5 pct to 106M USD, which IHG attributes largely to returning capital to shareholders. After the 26 pct adjusted tax rate that is 11.1M USD, or 2.9 points of earnings growth handed straight back to fund the same buyback. - THE MINUS 6 PCT IFRS EPS IS THE FAKE NUMBER: the bridge swings 77M USD year on year and 79M of it is foreign exchange - a 79M gain in H1 2025 against a 7M loss now, on translation of intra-group balances. The System Fund adds 29M more, and exceptional items were a 28M TAILWIND. Adjusted is honest here. - THE Q2 EXIT RATE IS THE REAL RISK: H1 RevPAR was plus 4.1 pct but Q2 alone was plus 3.5 pct. EMEAA went 5.6 pct to 0.6 pct; Greater China 5.7 pct to 0.8 pct. Only the Americas accelerated, to 5.4 pct, and IHG says roughly 1.0pt of that was the FIFA World Cup. Two of three regions exited under 1 pct. - THE RETURNS EXCEED THE CASH: 2026 shareholder returns of about 1,235M USD - 950M of buyback plus 285M of dividends - against roughly 845M USD of adjusted free cash flow. About 390M USD must be borrowed. Net debt rose 330M in six months, 564M of the movement being returns, and leverage is 2.63x. - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET ON THE GROWTH RATE, NOT THE HALF: at 160.22 USD the tape needs 12.6 pct annual growth in TOTAL cash flow for five years. IHG's 12-15 pct algorithm is PER SHARE and says it assumes ongoing buybacks. The Street average is 162.83 USD but the MEDIAN of 152.00 is already below the close. What to watch: UP: two consecutive quarters of RevPAR above 3 pct in BOTH EMEAA and Greater China; fee cost base held at the low end of the 1-3 pct guide while margin adds 150bp. DOWN: the Q2 exit rate of 3.5 pct proving to be the run rate, Middle East disruption persisting, adjusted interest running past the 240M USD guide. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Astronics Corporation (ATRO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (thirteen weeks ended July 4; the Item 2.02 8-K hit EDGAR at 16:20 ET on Tuesday August 11, so Wednesday August 12 is the reaction session): revenue 260.0M USD up 27.0 pct, adjusted EPS 0.70 USD vs a 0.59 USD bar. Both lines BEAT; the stock rose 17.33 pct. Astronics beat the TOP of its own guidance by 10.0M USD, raised the full-year outlook a third time and set a third consecutive record backlog - and the shares rose 17.33 pct. The quarter is not in dispute. The price is: at 93.45 USD the market pays 24.5x this year's EBITDA for a supplier with 68.1 pct of sales in one end market. THE CALL: AVOID (2/5, LOW - A GREAT QUARTER AT A FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$60.54 vs ~$93.45 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 2/5. Fair value 58.38 USD vs the 93.45 USD close - 37.5 pct below the tape and 32 pct below the 85.98 USD Street average. Five years of free cash flow discounted at 9.5 pct with a 14x exit on 2031 EBITDA: bear 34.44, base 60.54, bull 78.02. - THE BEAT IS REAL: revenue 260.0M USD, up 27.0 pct, and 10.0M USD ABOVE the top of the 245-250M USD the company guided in May. The Street sat at 245.3M USD - the FLOOR of that range. The bar was not cut: the 0.59 USD EPS bar was above the 0.49 USD adjusted delivered in Q1. - EPS BASIS, PROVEN: GAAP diluted EPS was 0.75 USD - 35.06M USD over 46.535M shares. The 0.70 USD the feeds carry is the company's ADJUSTED figure - five cents BELOW GAAP, because the bridge normalises tax to 25 pct and removes 8.08M USD. Reported tax was 2.79M USD, a 7.4 pct rate. - MARGIN, ON THE ADJUSTED SERIES: adjusted operating margin went 8.9 to 16.6 pct, up 770bp; adjusted Aerospace margin 16.3 to 21.4 pct. Adjusted EBITDA was 51.5M USD at a 19.8 pct margin. A soft prior-year base flatters the reported figures; the adjusted series removes it. - THE BACKLOG QUESTION: backlog is a record 780.6M USD, a third straight high, up 20.9 pct. But revenue grew 27.0 pct, so coverage FELL from 3.15x a quarter of shipments to 3.00x. 82 pct converts inside twelve months - 640M USD against roughly 1.08B USD of forward revenue. - WHERE THE ORDERS CAME FROM: bookings were a record 306.2M USD, book-to-bill 1.18, trailing 1.13. But Aerospace alone was 1.02, and stripping the 27.4M USD MV-75 award takes it to 0.91. Test Systems booked 63.1M USD including a 44.7M USD US Army full-rate production order. - TEST SYSTEMS IS AN OPTION, NOT A DRAG: 22.7M USD of sales, 8.7 pct of the group, at a 2.6 pct margin with 4.1M USD recognised at zero margin. Segment backlog went 73.7M to 123.3M USD - 5.4 quarters of cover against 3.0 for the group. Our base case assumes no further gain there. - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET: 5 firms cover ATRO - 3 strong buy, 1 buy, 1 hold, no sells - yet the 85.98 USD average target sits 8.0 pct BELOW the 93.45 USD close. On August 12 Craig-Hallum CUT to 95 from 100, TD Cowen held at 100, Truist reiterated Buy with no target. What to watch: UP: another book-to-bill above 1.15 in November with backlog coverage rising rather than falling; capital spending falling back toward depreciation in 2027. DOWN: narrowbody build-rate pauses, cabin-refit deferrals, working capital absorbing the growth. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Liftoff Mobile, Inc. (LFTO) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 16:05 ET on Wednesday August 12, so Thursday August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 219.5M USD up 35.4 pct, loss per share 0.03 USD vs a 0.45 USD bar. Both lines BEAT; the stock fell 20.59 pct. Liftoff beat the earnings bar by 42 cents a share and revenue by 5.6 pct - then fell 20.59 pct. The beat was noise: that consensus was built for a company four weeks old, and no analyst could size the IPO stock-compensation charge. The guide was the news - Q3 revenue is guided flat at 219.5M USD after eleven straight increases. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - THE CASH IS REAL, THE GROWTH IS NOT) — base-case value ~$23.80 vs ~$21.61 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 23.80 USD vs the 21.61 USD close - about 10 pct above the tape but 33 pct BELOW the 35.69 USD Street consensus. An owner-earnings DCF at an 11.0 pct discount rate and 3.0 pct terminal growth, stock comp deducted as a real cost: bear 12.70, base 24.10, bull 39.68. - THE BEAT WAS NOISE: a 0.03 USD loss against a 0.45 USD consensus (Zacks had 0.52 USD) is a 42-cent gap measuring a modelling problem, not the business. Liftoff listed June 4 at 23.00 USD, five weeks into the quarter, so nobody could size the IPO share-award charge. - THE LOSS IS BELOW THE LINE: income FROM OPERATIONS was POSITIVE 77.4M USD, a 35.3 pct margin, vs zero a year earlier. Interest took 33.3M USD, debt extinguishment 7.4M USD, an earn-out mark 17.5M USD - yet pre-tax income was STILL positive at 19.2M USD. A 122 pct tax rate made the loss. - SIXTY PER CENT MARGIN, FORTY-NINE CENTS OF CASH: adjusted EBITDA was 132.3M USD, a 60.3 pct margin, up from 52.5 pct - but the reconciliation adds back 136.5M USD, 62 pct of revenue. First-half free cash flow of 124.2M USD on 252.4M USD of adjusted EBITDA is 49 cents on the dollar. - THE GUIDE IS THE NEWS: Q3 revenue guided 217-222M USD, a 219.5M USD midpoint against the 219.5M USD just delivered - flat, after five quarters averaging better than 6 pct. Adjusted EBITDA guided DOWN 4.8 pct to 126M USD, margin 60.3 to 57.4 pct - the first guided contraction. - GROWTH IS ONE REGION: US revenue rose 74 pct to 87.8M USD, now 40.0 pct of the company; Asia Pacific added 34 pct. But EMEA grew 2.5 pct - 55.0M to 56.4M USD - and is still 25.7 pct of revenue. Deceleration ladder: 35.4 pct now, 22.3 guided, 18.6 implied for Q4, about 14 for 2027. - THE BALANCE SHEET THE IPO HALF-FIXED: of 472.4M USD raised, 409.2M USD prepaid term-loan principal on June 29. Debt fell 1.855B to 1.437B USD, net debt to guided EBITDA 3.61x to 2.20x. What remains is floating to September 2032. EV 4,790M USD, 9.3x the 514M USD guide. - WE DIFFER FROM THE STREET: 13 firms cover LFTO - 12 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell - averaging 35.69 USD, median 35.00, range 30-42. Twelve initiated June 29 as the quiet period expired. On August 13, as the stock fell 20.59 pct, UBS raised to 39, Wells Fargo to 34; only Cantor cut. What to watch: UP: Q3 at or above the 222M USD top of guidance; EMEA re-accelerating from 2.5 pct; the 60 pct adjusted EBITDA margin holding rather than the guided 57.4 pct. DOWN: Q3 at the midpoint or below; the top customer passing 15 pct of revenue. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Ondas Inc. (ONDS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 08:26 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x, diluted loss 0.19 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. Guidance was RAISED and the stock still closed DOWN 8.80 pct on 1.56x volume. Ondas posted the best revenue line in its history - 83.8M USD, thirteen times a year ago - and raised full-year guidance. Then the stock fell 8.80 pct. Note 5 of the 10-Q explains why: five businesses bought during 2026 contributed 32.1M USD from their acquisition dates, which is 38.3 pct of the quarter and 41.4 pct of the growth. The demand is real. The arithmetic is bought. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND REAL, ARITHMETIC BOUGHT) — base-case value ~$8.24 vs ~$9.24 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 8.24 USD against the 9.24 USD close on August 14 - about 11 pct BELOW the tape and 55 pct below the 18.50 USD Street consensus. No net income, no free cash flow, and no company-wide adjusted-EBITDA breakeven promised before Q4 2027, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 5.41, base 8.11, bull 11.34 USD. - THE REVENUE WAS BOUGHT: revenue 83.8M USD, up 13.4x and 67 pct sequentially, beating the 68.0M USD consensus by 23 pct. But Note 5 of the 10-Q itemises 32.1M USD of it - 38.3 pct - as Omnisys, Mistral, Bird, Rotron and World View, all bought during 2026. The 10-Q's own pro forma grows the quarter 185 pct, not thirteen-fold. - THE LOSS IS MOSTLY ACCOUNTING: the 89.7M USD net loss carries 107.9M USD of non-cash charges - MORE than the entire loss. Stock comp 69.1M USD, intangible amortisation 18.6M USD, earn-out remeasurement 19.2M USD. Strip that plus a 29.1M USD deferred-tax credit and 44.2M USD of other income and adjusted EBITDA is MINUS 50.6M USD, against minus 10.9M USD in Q1. - THE EPS BASIS, PROVEN: basic is 88.6M USD over 500.7M shares = 0.18 USD as filed. Diluted subtracts a 7.4M USD warrant gain to give 95.9M USD over 503.6M = 0.19 USD, so the diluted LOSS is bigger than the basic one. The six-month column proves the method: 273.1M USD less 77.5M USD to participating warrants, over 473.1M shares, is the 0.41 USD printed. - THE DILUTION NOBODY PRICES: 380.8M shares at December 31, 529.8M at June 30, 570.6M on the 10-Q cover for August 11 - up 49.8 pct in seven and a half months. A further 45.0M are owed to DZYNE's sellers on January 4, 2027, with 196.3M warrants behind that at 28.00 USD. The January raise priced at 16.45 USD. - SEVEN DEALS IN EIGHT MONTHS: about 1.75B USD of acquisitions completed in 2026 - 749.1M USD in the first half, then DZYNE for 879.0M USD on July 2 and Cyberhawk for 118.2M USD of cash on August 10. Of the DZYNE price, 92 pct is goodwill and intangibles. Group goodwill plus intangibles is already 1.24B USD, 42 pct of total assets, before DZYNE is consolidated. - GUIDANCE IS REAL BUT BACK-LOADED: full year raised to 525-550M USD, Q3 guided to 140-155M USD. Against 133.9M USD booked in H1, the second half needs about 403.6M USD - and after Q3 that leaves roughly 256.1M USD for Q4, a further 74 pct step. Backlog 613M USD, 757M USD pro forma. Cash 1.39B USD against 6.4M USD of debt. What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of improving adjusted EBITDA from the minus 50.6M USD here; the 140-155M USD Q3 guide landing on volume already in backlog, not another mid-quarter deal. DOWN: the implied 256M USD Q4 slipping; gross margin below 43 pct; a raise below the 16.45 USD January price; goodwill impairment. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 07:35 ET on Thursday August 13, so August 13 is the reaction session): revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x, loss per Class A share 0.29 USD against a 0.09 USD bar. The stock GAPPED DOWN 15.7 pct at the open, traded to 14.18 USD, then reversed the whole move to close 17.56 USD, up 3.60 pct. Friday added 8.26 pct to 19.01 USD - that Friday number is the one most feeds call the reaction, and it is the session AFTER. Intuitive Machines posted the best revenue line in its history: 206.2M USD, more than four times a year ago. Decompose it and the quarter is two companies stapled together. Product revenue of 166.7M USD - against ZERO last year - is Lanteris, the satellite maker bought on 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD of cash, at a 28.4 pct gross margin. The original lunar business FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD and cost 48.2M USD to deliver: a gross margin of MINUS 31.5 pct. Demand is not the problem. The cost curve is. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - DEMAND IS REAL, THE COST CURVE IS NOT) — base-case value ~$14.59 vs ~$19.01 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 14.59 USD vs the 19.01 USD close on August 14 - about 23 pct BELOW the tape and 50 pct below the 29.33 USD Street consensus. No net income, no EBITDA and no free cash flow to put a multiple on, so this is an EV-to-2027-revenue grid: bear 9.67, base 14.37, bull 19.95 USD. - THE GROWTH WAS BOUGHT: revenue 206.2M USD, up 4.1x on 50.3M USD. Product revenue of 166.7M USD came entirely from Lanteris Space Systems, acquired 13 January 2026 for 447.1M USD net of cash, against ZERO a year earlier. Service revenue - the original lunar business - FELL 27.1 pct to 36.7M USD. - THE MARGIN SPLIT IS THE THESIS: acquired product earned 47.4M USD of gross profit on 166.7M USD, a 28.4 pct margin. Legacy services earned MINUS 11.5M USD on 36.7M USD because delivery cost 48.2M USD - a margin of minus 31.5 pct. Blended 17.4 pct, flattered by mix, up from 16.1 pct in Q1. - LOSS CONTRACTS, IN THE FILING'S WORDS: as of June 30, 2026, the IM-3 and IM-4 contracts are in a loss position. IM-4's accrued loss rose 13.5M USD on an unfavourable cost revision; NASA Near Space Network revenue fell 7.3M USD on delay plus an unfavourable EAC. 87 pct of revenue is now fixed-price, from 55 pct. - THE SHARE COUNT IS NOT WHAT THE SCREEN SAYS: this is an Up-C. The 10-Q cover for August 6 gives 173,231,343 Class A, ZERO Class B and 55,692,725 Class C paired to exchangeable LLC units - 228.9M economic shares, 4,352M USD. The feed prints 3,030M USD, understating it by 43.6 pct. - BACKLOG AND CASH: backlog 1,762.0M USD, up 8.3x - but 612.8M USD came WITH the acquisition, the backlog definition was rewritten the same quarter, and audited performance obligations are only 814.7M USD. Cash 367.4M USD after first-half free cash flow of MINUS 145.8M USD and 413.8M USD of stock issued. What to watch: UP: two straight quarters of POSITIVE service gross margin with IM-3 and IM-4 out of their loss positions; the second half delivering the 507M-607M USD the guide needs through volume, not through the rewritten backlog policy. DOWN: another unfavourable EAC revision on a fixed-price lunar contract; the 587M USD satellite programme failing to convert past its 45.0M USD authority to proceed. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Keel Infrastructure Corp. (KEEL) Q2 2026 — The 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 06:52 ET on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session. The stock barely gapped - it opened 3.85 USD against a 3.88 USD close - then bled all session and finished 3.40 USD, down 12.37 pct, on just 0.74x normal volume. Keel - formerly Bitfarms - did not lose its revenue, it switched it off. Bitcoin mining was 85 pct of the quarter, and every U.S. site was decommissioned inside the period, the last three on June 29. So the sequential decline is deliberate, and it is the smallest one still to come. What replaces it is a 2,161 MW pipeline with ZERO megawatts under a customer lease. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - THE POWER IS REAL, THE CUSTOMERS ARE NOT SIGNED) — base-case value ~$1.89 vs ~$3.51 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value 1.89 USD vs the 3.51 USD close on August 14 - about 46 pct BELOW the tape and 66 pct below the 5.60 USD Street consensus. Per-megawatt development NPV: bear 0.33 (30 pct), base 1.42 (45 pct), bull 4.63 (25 pct). - REVENUE: 30.4M USD, down 50.0 pct year over year and down 17.7 pct from 37.0M USD in Q1. Bitcoin mining was 25.9M USD of it (85 pct), energy sales 2.4M, electrical services 2.0M, hosting 0.2M. By geography: U.S. 11.4M, Quebec 19.1M. - THE BLACKOUT: all four U.S. sites were decommissioned inside the quarter - Washington State on April 28, then Panther Creek, Scrubgrass and Sharon on June 29, the second-to-last day. The 10-Q: as of August 7 no HPC operations had commenced and no related revenue was recognised. - CAPACITY: 2,161 gross MW pipeline, of which 648 MW is secured data centre capacity (a UTILITY supply agreement, NOT a tenant) and 1,513 MW is expansion under load study. 341 MW is energised, but 123 MW of that has no energy service agreement. Under customer contract: ZERO. - PER SHARE: loss from continuing operations 0.11 USD vs a 0.068 USD bar - a four-cent MISS. NOTE THE BASIS: feeds carry 0.24 USD for Q1, the TOTAL including discontinued ops; on the continuing basis Q1 was 0.21 USD. A 77.0M USD derivative gain and 63.0M USD of accelerated depreciation nearly cancel inside it. - BALANCE SHEET: 819M USD of liquidity at August 7 (698M cash, 121M bitcoin) against 1.046bn USD of convertibles at 1.375 and 1.25 pct due 2031 and 2032, which add 147.5M shares. Net debt 177.9M. Book equity 328.7M, about 0.53 USD a share. - WHAT THE PRICE ASSUMES: each leased MW is worth about 2.26M USD today (0.95M NOI, 8.75 pct cap, 7.60M build, discounted 3 years at 13 pct). The 2.17bn USD market cap implies 985 MW leased - 46 pct of the pipeline and 152 pct of secured capacity. The Street's 5.60 USD needs 1,557 MW. - STREET: 5.60 USD consensus across 5 firms, median 5.50, range 3.00 to 8.00. Four buy and one overweight; not one hold, not one sell. Verified by firm and date: Alliance Global Partners 7.00 (cut from 8.00 on print day), BTIG 8.00, H.C. Wainwright 5.50, Chardan 4.50, Cantor Fitzgerald 3.00. What to watch: UP: an 8-K Item 1.01 announcing a definitive lease with a NAMED counterparty, a stated term, a megawatt figure and a start date; Quebec approval of the Sherbrooke 96 MW conversion. DOWN: the 60.8M USD letter of credit due by January 31 2027 going unposted; a third quarter of negotiations with no signature. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Boost Run Inc. (BRUN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K Item 2.02 hit EDGAR at 08:46 ET on Friday August 14, so August 14 is the reaction session). The stock gapped to 26.25 USD against a 22.55 USD prior close, ran to 26.90 USD (+19.3 pct), then fell to 21.93 USD and closed 22.93 USD - just +1.69 pct, giving back 91 pct of the gain on 8.3x normal volume. Boost Run's first earnings as a public company produced a 75.0M USD GAAP net loss and a 1.67 USD loss per diluted Class A share - and almost none of that is an operating event. 55.7M USD of it (74 pct) is a one-time non-cash deferred tax recognised when the operating LLC converted to a C-corporation at the de-SPAC closing. Strip it, plus stock compensation and debt extinguishment, and the adjusted net loss is 10.8M USD and EBITDA is POSITIVE. Revenue grew 270 pct, organically. The bears read this print wrong. We are still sellers, because the 1.9bn USD backlog implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex on the company's own ratio - against 120.2M USD of cash and 100.0M USD of equity. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, MODERATE - REAL DEMAND, UNFUNDED PLAN) — base-case value ~$17.02 vs ~$22.93 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value 18.00 USD vs the 22.93 USD close on August 14 - about 21 pct BELOW the tape and 60 pct below the 45.00 USD Street consensus. Scenario-weighted on year-end ARR: bear 200M at 4.0x = 5.73 USD (25 pct), base 300M at 6.5x = 17.02 USD (50 pct), bull 400M at 9.0x = 32.22 USD (25 pct). - REVENUE: 31.1M USD, up 270 pct from 8.4M USD, and organic - clusters coming online, not an acquisition. Six-month revenue 42.1M USD vs 12.6M USD. NOTE: the data feeds carry 18.0M USD for this quarter and are 42 pct light; 42.1M less the 11.0M first quarter reproduces 31.1M exactly. - THE LOSS: GAAP net loss 75.0M USD, of which 55.7M USD (74 pct) is a ONE-TIME NON-CASH deferred tax under ASC 740-10-25-32, booked when the LLC became a C-corporation at the May 8 de-SPAC close. Adjusted net loss 10.8M USD. EBITDA POSITIVE 3.9M USD; adjusted EBITDA 12.3M USD (40 pct margin). - PER SHARE: GAAP diluted loss 1.67 USD per Class A share; adjusted 0.24 USD - both on 45,032,269 diluted weighted-average Class A shares. The feeds print 0.48 USD on TWO rows, a duplication defect, matching neither. Dual class: 47.3M Class A and 29.5M Class B, 76.8M total at June 30. - THE CASH FLOW ILLUSION: first-half operating cash flow was 114.2M USD, but 112.9M USD of it (99 pct) is an increase in CUSTOMER DEPOSITS - prepayments for compute not yet delivered. The company's own deck says it should not be run-rated. Underlying: 1.3M USD. - THE FUNDING GAP: the 1.9bn USD backlog at the company's own 1.2x-1.4x contracted-value-to-capex ratio implies 1.36bn-1.58bn USD of 2026 capex. Against 120.2M USD cash, 100.0M USD equity, 642.2M USD liabilities, 238.1M USD finance leases and a 0.87 current ratio. - BACKLOG AND ARR: total contract value 1.9bn USD as of July 31, over 1bn USD signed in the quarter. ARR tripled from 30M to 145M USD against a 400M USD year-end target - a further 2.8x in six months. Six data centres live, three more coming, 253MW of power. - GOVERNANCE FLAG: Boost Run did NOT file its 10-Q. It filed a Form 12b-25 late notice the same morning it reported - the SECOND consecutive quarter. Every figure here is from the unaudited 8-K earnings deck, not a filed financial statement. What to watch: UP: the late 10-Q lands clean with low customer concentration; year-end ARR tracks toward 400M USD; lease financing stays open. DOWN: a shelf or at-the-market equity programme; ARR growth below a 2.8x six-month pace; a customer-concentration disclosure showing the backlog leans on a few names. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; the 8-K hit EDGAR at 08:06 ET on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session): no revenue at all, net loss 96.4M USD, GAAP loss per share 0.52 USD vs a 0.55 bar. The print moved the stock just 2.03 pct on 0.68x volume - then a 400M USD equity program was filed at 17:17 the same day and the next session fell 6.81 pct. Cogent has won. PEAK is the first positive Phase 3 in second-line GIST in over twenty years, three NDAs are filed and two PDUFA dates land inside twenty weeks. The stock is up 249 pct in a year. And at 17:17 on the afternoon it reported, Cogent registered another 400M USD of stock. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - GREAT DRUG, FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$26.14 vs ~$37.93 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value 26.48 USD vs the 37.93 USD close on August 14 - about 30 pct BELOW the tape, and 45 pct below the 47.80 USD Street consensus. With no revenue and no earnings to put a multiple on, this is a probability-weighted NPV: bear 20.47, base 26.14, bull 33.15, weighted 25/50/25. Even the bull case sits below the price. - THE QUARTER (ended June 30, 2026): NO revenue line at all - the income statement opens at operating expenses. R and D 70.8M USD, up 13.8 pct. G and A 31.8M USD, up 137.9 pct on the commercial build. Net loss 96.4M USD, up 31.1 pct. Loss per share 0.52 USD via the TWO-CLASS method; a flat division gives 0.56 and is wrong. - THE ANGLE - THE PRICE OF THE WIN: on November 7, 2025, the Friday BEFORE the PEAK read-out, Cogent lifted its ATM ceiling from 75M to 300M USD. The Monday after, the stock rose 119 pct in one session. Eight days later it sold 230.0M USD of 1.625 pct converts at 44.95 USD with NO capped call - then filed a NEW 400M USD program on print day. - THE DILUTION, FULLY COUNTED: the 10-Q cover shows 173,524,982 shares at August 6, yet the screens print a 6,481M USD market cap - implying only 170.9M. Add preferred as-converted, 5.12M convert shares, 27.11M options at 11.08 USD, restricted stock and the new program: 235.6M claims, 35.8 pct more paper than the screen shows. - THE EVIDENCE IS GENUINELY STRONG: PEAK Phase 3 in second-line GIST gave median PFS of 16.5 months vs 9.2 on sunitinib alone, hazard ratio 0.50, and a 46 pct response rate vs 26 pct. APEX in advanced systemic mastocytosis: 65 pct response. But overall survival in PEAK is still IMMATURE, and survival is what payers price. - CASH AND RUNWAY: 792.3M USD at June 30 plus 73.6M raised since gives 865.9M USD pro forma, against 230.0M USD of converts. Operating burn was 164.2M USD across the half - 82.1M a quarter, or 10.5 quarters. Management guides into late 2028, but that assumes burn never rises through a launch. Runway and dilution are the same decision. What to watch: UP: approval on November 30 (GIST) and December 30 (non-advanced SM); the avapritinib-switch SUMMIT extension reading out by year end; the equity program left undrawn into strength. DOWN: a complete response letter on either filing; the 400M USD program drawn hard after approval; AYVAKIT holding share. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; released before the open on Tuesday August 11, so August 11 is the reaction session): total revenue RMB 8,933M (US$1,317M) vs a US$1,300M bar, non-IFRS EPS US$0.25 per ADS vs a US$0.24 bar - a beat on both lines, and the stock still fell 11.9%. Tencent Music beat on revenue and earnings and fell 11.9% anyway. Revenue rose RMB 491M - and RMB 407M of that came from Ximalaya, acquired May 18. Organic growth was 1.0%. The metrics that would prove otherwise were withdrawn in March. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP BUT UNAUDITABLE) — base-case value ~$11.33 vs ~$8.84 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $11.38 vs the $8.84 close on August 14, about 29% higher - and we are still not buyers. This is an EV/owner-earnings grid: non-IFRS profit less all stock compensation and half the deal amortisation. Bear $8.58 (8.0x), base $11.33 (10.5x), bull $14.27 (13.0x), weighted 25/50/25. Headline Street target is $15.22, but targets written since the print average $11.50. - THE QUARTER (ended June 30, 2026; IFRS, in RMB at 6.7851/USD): revenue RMB 8,933M (US$1,317M), up 5.8%. Music related services RMB 7,605M, up 11.0%. Social entertainment RMB 1,328M, down 16.4%. Gross margin 44.2%. IFRS diluted EPS per ADS RMB 1.57 (US$0.23); non-IFRS RMB 1.70 (US$0.25). One ADS = two Class A shares, per the 6-K. - THE ANGLE - 83% OF THE GROWTH WAS ACQUIRED: revenue rose RMB 491M, and the release states Ximalaya, consolidated from May 18 (about six weeks), contributed RMB 407M. Strip it and organic growth was 1.0%. Music related services grew 11.0% reported, 5.0% ex-Ximalaya. The six-week stub annualises near RMB 3.4bn, so Q3 reported growth improves and means less. - AND THE METRICS THAT WOULD CHECK IT ARE GONE: on March 17, 2026, under Planned Disclosure Change, TME discontinued quarterly online-music MAU, paying users and ARPPU, reporting total paying users annually instead. Last disclosed: 127.4M paying users, ARPPU RMB 11.9 (flat two quarters), MAU 528M, down 5.0% and falling faster. Four downgrades followed within days. - THE CASH IS SMALLER THAN THE HEADLINE: cash, deposits and short-term investments rose 16.2% to RMB 44,222M (US$6,518M). But borrowings went from zero at December 31 to RMB 13,139M for Ximalaya; total debt is RMB 16,529M. Net cash is RMB 27,693M (US$4,082M), DOWN 19.8% in six months. Operating cash flow was strong at RMB 2,864M, up 74.8%. - THE BUYBACK DOES NOT SURVIVE DECOMPOSITION: TME repurchased 43.5M ADSs for US$400.0M at an average US$9.2 - yet weighted-average basic ADSs ROSE 2.2%, to 1,564.2M. Treasury shares rose RMB 2,725M while paid-in capital rose RMB 5,014M: roughly twice as much stock issued as retired. Tencent holds 93.6% of the votes in this Cayman-incorporated VIE. What to watch: UP: the annual paying-user figure showing the base compounded through the blackout; Q3 separating Ximalaya from the organic base; the ADS count finally shrinking. DOWN: another quarter of ~1% organic growth; net cash falling again; a year-end disclosure with no ARPPU beside it. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

California Resources Corporation (CRC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (three months ended June 30; released before the open on Monday August 10, so August 10 is the reaction session): total revenue $1,297M vs a $960M bar, GAAP EPS $5.76, adjusted EPS $0.99 vs a $1.36 bar - a 27% miss. The stock gapped down 1.6%, then closed up 3.21%, and finished August 14 at $53.31. California Resources printed a 35% revenue beat and a 27% adjusted EPS miss in the same release, and both came out of the commodity derivative book. Marking the open hedge position to market created a $370M non-cash gain booked inside revenue; settling the hedges that expired cost $165M in cash. Strip the mark and revenue is $1,092M - a 13.7% beat, not 35%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP ON CASH, FLAT ON OPERATIONS) — base-case value ~$56.43 vs ~$53.31 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $57.84 vs the $53.31 close on August 14, about 8% higher. This is an EV/adjusted-EBITDAX grid, not an earnings multiple, because GAAP profit here is dominated by derivative marks. Bear $37.85 ($1,150M at 4.0x), base $56.43 ($1,250M at 5.0x), bull $80.64 ($1,400M at 6.0x), weighted 25/50/25. The Street is Buy - 18 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell - with an $80.00 average target. We are 28% below them. - THE QUARTER (three months ended June 30, 2026): total operating revenues $1,297M vs a $960M consensus. Revenue BEFORE commodity derivatives - the company's own line - was $1,092M, up 33% from $821M. GAAP net income $514M, diluted EPS $5.76 vs $1.92. Adjusted net income $88M, adjusted EPS $0.99 vs a $1.36 bar and vs $1.10 a year ago. Zacks put the bar at $1.31 and the miss at 24%. - THE ANGLE - ONE HEDGE BOOK MADE BOTH HEADLINES: marking the open position to market produced a $370M non-cash gain on oil plus $20M on gas, and the net $205M lands inside REVENUE. That entry is the whole difference between a 13.7% beat and the 35% one the feeds printed. Settling expired contracts cost $165M cash. Of the $5.76 GAAP EPS, $4.77 came back out in the adjustment column. - THE BARREL SHOWS IT WITHOUT ACCOUNTING: CRC realized $91.55 a barrel WITHOUT derivative settlements - 95% of the $96.87 Brent average. WITH hedge settlements it kept $76.43, only 79% of Brent, vs 100% a year ago. That is $15.12 a barrel handed to the counterparty on 120 thousand barrels a day. Natural gas realized $1.84 vs $3.56 in Q1. - THE OPERATING TRUTH: adjusted EBITDAX $338M vs $324M, up only 4.3%, on production up 8.8% to 149 MBoe/d and after absorbing the Berry merger that closed December 18, 2025. Per barrel that is a DECLINE, $25.95 to $24.94. Overhead per barrel rose 13.9% even as management captured $103M of annualized Berry synergies. First-half free cash flow fell 66%, $240M to $82M, on capital up 152%. - THE GUIDE POINTS DOWN: full-year adjusted EBITDAX is guided $1,200M-$1,300M. With $642M booked in the first half, the back half implies about $608M - 5.3% BELOW the half just finished. Q3 alone is guided $285M-$325M vs the $338M just delivered. What was raised was efficiency: maintenance capital cut about 5% to $450M-$475M on six rigs, not seven. What to watch: UP: Crimson closing in Q3 with the promised incremental guidance; adjusted EBITDAX per barrel recovering from $24.94; the hedge book rolling off toward the 95% of Brent CRC realizes unhedged. DOWN: a third quarter at the low end of the $285M-$325M guide, overhead per barrel rising above $6.57, or California permitting slowing 2027. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

YETI Holdings (YETI) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (13 weeks ended July 4; 8-K accepted 6:04am ET Aug 13, before the open, so Aug 13 is the reaction session): sales $483.9M up 8.5%, GAAP EPS $0.94 up 54%, adjusted EPS $0.67 against a $0.54 bar, guidance raised. The stock fell 10.56% that day on 4.6x volume and closed Aug 14 at $44.56. YETI grew sales 8.5%, printed a 66.7% gross margin, raised guidance and reported EPS up 54%. The stock fell 10.6%. The reason is one line item: a $45.6M IEEPA tariff refund, about $0.40 a share, recognised in a single quarter. Strip it out and GAAP EPS is roughly $0.54 against $0.61 a year ago - and adjusted operating income FELL 6.8%. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, MODERATE - REAL BRAND, BROKEN OPERATING LEVERAGE) — base-case value ~$42.05 vs ~$44.56 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value $41.28 against the $44.56 close on Aug 14, about 7% lower. Bear $32.40 ($2.70 at 12.0x), base $42.05 ($2.90 at 14.5x), bull $52.70 ($3.10 at 17.0x), weighted 30/50/20. Cross-checked on cash: durable free cash flow near $185M is $2.53 a share, a 6.1% yield at fair value and 5.7% at the close. The Street is Buy - 12 buy, 10 hold, 0 sell - with a $56.25 average target, 26% above the tape. - THE QUARTER (13 weeks ended Jul 4, 2026): sales $483.868M, up 8.5%, essentially level with the $483.8M consensus. GAAP diluted EPS $0.94 against $0.61, up 54%. Adjusted EPS $0.67 against a $0.54 bar - a 24% beat, but only about +2% year over year. Adjusted operating income FELL 6.8% to $68.240M from $73.197M. Adjusted net income fell 8.2% to $50.685M. Diluted shares fell 9.2%, 83.462M to 75.782M. - THE ANGLE - THE TARIFF REFUND IS THE HEADLINE: YETI concluded during the quarter that recovery of IEEPA tariffs was probable and booked a $45.6M net benefit - $42.6M as a reduction of cost of goods sold plus $2.9M of interest income. That is the whole of the 890 basis point gross margin gain (66.7% against 57.8%) and about $0.40 of GAAP EPS. Without it GAAP EPS is roughly $0.54 against $0.61 a year ago: down, not up 54%. - THE OPERATING LEVERAGE INVERTED: sales added $37.976M. Adjusted gross profit added $30.522M. Adjusted SG&A added $35.479M. So adjusted operating income fell $4.957M - 80 cents of new gross profit against 93 cents of new operating cost, an incremental adjusted operating margin of -13.1%. Over the first half it is -20%: sales up $67.3M, adjusted operating income down $13.5M, margin 13.6% to 11.0%. Adjusted gross margin still rose 170bps to 59.5%. - THE GUIDE AND WHAT IT REQUIRES: 2026 sales growth held at 7-8%; adjusted operating margin raised to 14.9% from 14.6%; adjusted EPS raised to $2.94-$3.00 from $2.83-$2.89; diluted shares cut to 75.4M from 76.6M; free cash flow held at $200M-$225M; capex $60M-$70M. That needs roughly $204M of second-half adjusted operating income against about $161M last year, up 27%, straight after a first half that fell 12.5%. The outlook assumes US tariffs return to about 20%. - THE BALANCE SHEET AND THE RISKS: cash fell to $59.8M from $188.3M at the year end. First-half operating cash flow was $29.8M against $40.0M of property and intangible additions, so H1 free cash flow was negative $10.2M. YETI still spent $130.0M repurchasing 2.8M shares at about $46.43 and drew a net $30M on its revolver. Inventory $359.1M, up 23.6% since December. Drinkware, half the company, grew 2%; Coolers and Equipment grew 16%. What to watch: UP: a September quarter where adjusted operating income grows rather than falls; free cash flow arriving on the guided path rather than through the tariff receivable; or a credible margin target at the September 17 Investor Day. DOWN: costs outrunning gross profit again, tariffs above the assumed 20%, or Drinkware stuck at 2%. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Heartflow (HTFL) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (quarter ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:02pm ET Aug 13, after the close, so Friday Aug 14 is the reaction): revenue $64.1M up 47.6% and 13.1% above consensus, non-GAAP loss $0.07 vs a $0.13 bar, full-year guidance raised to $246M-$250M. The stock closed Aug 14 at $42.08, up 35.70% on 9.91M shares - 9.0x its average volume. Heartflow beat revenue by 13%, printed an 83.0% gross margin and raised full-year guidance by $18M. The stock gapped 35.7%. But subtract the $116.7M already booked in H1 from that raised guide and the second half implies just +1.6% sequential growth per quarter - one day after the company printed +21.9%. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, MODERATE - GREAT BUSINESS, FULLY PRICED) — base-case value ~$31.20 vs ~$42.08 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value $31.20 vs the $42.08 close on Aug 14, about 26% lower. Bear $9.29, base $26.89, bull $50.06, weighted 15/55/30. The Street is Buy - 5 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell across 6 firms - with a $42.83 average target that is only 2% above the tape. Conviction is 3 not 4 because our own bull case is $50.06, and the business is genuinely excellent. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $64.082M, up 47.6%, against a $56.635M consensus - a 13.1% beat. GAAP net loss $15.743M or $0.18/share; non-GAAP net loss $5.767M or $0.07/share against a $0.13 bar. The $9.976M bridge is $7.912M of stock compensation plus $2.064M of litigation expense. Adjusted EBITDA negative $6.7M vs negative $10.1M. US revenue $59.6M, up 51%. - THE ANGLE - WHAT THE RAISED GUIDE ACTUALLY SAYS: H1 revenue was $116.669M. Full-year guidance is $246M-$250M, up from $228M-$232M. So H2 must be $129.3M-$133.3M. Solved as two equal sequential steps off the $64.082M just printed, that is +0.6% to +2.7% per quarter, or +1.6% at the midpoint - implying Q3 near $65.1M and Q4 near $66.2M. Sequential growth ran +6.6%, +6.2%, +7.0%, then +21.9%. - WHAT THE MARKET REPRICED: enterprise value went from $2,442M to $3,402M, up 39.3%, while the full-year revenue midpoint went from $230M to $248M, up only 7.8%. The forward revenue multiple went 10.6x to 13.7x, up 29.2%. Decomposed, 77% of the move was multiple and 23% was the estimate change. On the $212.1M of revenue actually booked over four quarters the enterprise trades at 16.0x. - THE UNIT ECONOMICS ARE REAL: gross margin 83.0% from 75.5%. Cost of revenue rose just 2.3% on revenue that rose 47.6%, so incremental gross margin was 98.8%. Non-GAAP operating margin improved 14.0 points, negative 26.4% to negative 12.4%. Break-even needs about $73.6M of quarterly revenue at frozen opex, 15% above this quarter. Cash and investments $246.8M with zero debt - roughly 4.2 years of runway. - THE RISKS: in October 2025 Heartflow and certain employees received civil investigative demands from the DOJ under the federal Anti-Kickback Statute and Civil False Claims Act, aimed at its arrangements with providers and its sales and marketing. There are 11.7M potentially dilutive securities, 13.5% of the 86.7M shares. Three Form 144s covering 365,560 shares worth $15.3M were filed on Aug 14, the reaction day. What to watch: UP: a September quarter clearing $65.1M with the full-year range raised a third time, proving the June step was a slope; or the DOJ civil investigative demand closing without action. DOWN: September landing on the guide, an adverse finding on provider arrangements, or the 11.7M dilutive overhang converting into the move. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

H&R Block (HRB) Q4 FY2026 — Q4 and full fiscal 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:10pm ET Aug 11, after the close, so Aug 12 is the reaction): Q4 adjusted EPS $2.38 vs a $2.21 bar, full-year revenue $3.95B up 4.9%. The stock gapped 16.1% to $54.18 and closed the week at $53.92. H&R Block beat, raised its dividend a 9th straight year and guided FY2027 earnings up 15.6%. But the 10-K says total assisted tax return volume FELL 0.1% and DIY paid volume fell about 4%. All the growth was price, and the buyback supplied 47% of the earnings growth. THE CALL: BUY (3/5, MODERATE - CHEAP, NOT RISKLESS) — base-case value ~$66.42 vs ~$53.92 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: BUY, 3/5. Fair value $66.42 vs the $53.92 close on Aug 14, about 23% higher. Bear $43.95, base $69.12, bull $87.05, weighted 25/55/20. Street is a genuine Hold: 5 buy, 8 hold, 3 sell across 16 firms, target $46.50 - BELOW the tape, implying 14% downside. Conviction is 3 not 4: the bear case is a real 18% loss. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1,144.9M, up 3.0% vs a $1,118.0M consensus. Adjusted diluted EPS $2.38 vs a $2.21 bar - a 7.7% beat. GAAP continuing-ops EPS $2.31, consolidated GAAP $2.30. EBITDA $420.5M. The line nobody quoted: net income from continuing operations FELL, $300.4M to $294.5M. EPS rose anyway - the share count did it. - THE FULL YEAR (FY2026): revenue $3,945.4M, up 4.9%. Net income from continuing ops $736.3M, up 20.8%. EBITDA $1,056.9M, up 8.3%. Adjusted net income $688.0M, up 6.9%. Adjusted EPS $5.31, up 14.0%. GAAP continuing EPS $5.69, up 28.7% - but that includes a one-time non-cash $84.1M IRS settlement benefit worth $0.65/share. Strip it and GAAP growth is 14.0%. - WHERE THE GROWTH CAME FROM - the two 10-K sentences that decide this: U.S. assisted revenue rose $147.7M or 6.1%, from a 4.0% rise in NET AVERAGE CHARGE and 2.0% more COMPANY-OWNED volume. But total assisted return volume, company-owned AND franchise together, DECREASED 0.1%. DIY revenue rose 0.2% on a 4.2% price rise, so DIY paid volume fell ~4%. All growth was price; unit growth was zero. - THE BUYBACK DID HALF THE WORK: adjusted net income rose 6.95%, adjusted EPS rose 13.95%. The 6.55-point gap is the denominator. HRB retired 10.5M shares, 7.9% of the company, for $500.3M at an average $47.48. Diluted shares fell 6.2%, 137.3M to 128.9M. The buyback supplied 47% of adjusted EPS growth; ~$600M is left on the $1.5B authorisation. - THE CASH AND THE VALUATION: operating cash flow $838.7M, up 23.2%; capex only $82.6M. After $57.6M of franchise acquisitions, owner free cash flow is $698.4M - a 10.5% owner yield. Dividend raised 10% to $0.46/qtr, a 9th straight increase, 3.41% yield; $713.7M returned, a 10.7% shareholder yield. 123.3M shares off the 10-K cover, EV $7,179M: 8.8x guided FY2027 EPS, 6.4x guided EBITDA. Capitalise owner cash at 10% assuming it NEVER grows again: $52.34, roughly the share price. What to watch: UP: total assisted return volume turning positive in March while net average charge still rises, plus a re-authorised buyback. DOWN: assisted volume down more than a point, charge growth under 3%, or free filing reaching assisted clients. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

StubHub Holdings (STUB) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:28pm ET Aug 12, after the close, so Aug 13 is the reaction): GMS $3.09B up 34%, revenue $573.1M up 33.2%, adjusted EBITDA $105.7M up 94%, diluted EPS to common $(0.00). The stock fell 10.1% to $7.68, printed $6.78 intraday, and closed the week at $8.08. StubHub reported record GMS up 34%, revenue up 33%, adjusted EBITDA up 94%, and raised full-year volume guidance. The stock fell 10.1%. The reason is in the guidance: volume went up $200M, profit guidance did not move at all, and the raised range implies second-half volume growth of 0.2% to 4.3%. THE CALL: SELL (4/5, A REAL MARKETPLACE AT A PRICE ITS OWN GUIDE DENIES) — base-case value ~$3.87 vs ~$8.08 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 4/5. Fair value about $3.87 vs the $8.08 close on Aug 14, roughly 52% lower. Bear $1.27, base $3.27, bull $9.30, weighted 30/50/20. Our BULL case is only 15% above the price. Street: 3 buy, 6 hold, 0 sell, target $10.75 - but no rating action post-dates this print. A valuation call, not a solvency call. - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, 2026): GMS $3.09B, up 34% from $2.30B. Revenue $573.1M, up 33.2% against a $513.3M consensus - an 11.6% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $105.7M, up 94%, an 18% margin. Net income $14.6M vs a $53.8M loss. Diluted EPS to common is $(0.00): $14.6M of preferred dividends took the whole profit. - THE GUIDANCE RAISE, READ CLOSELY: full-year GMS went from $9.9-10.1B in May up to $10.1-10.3B in August. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $400-420M in May and is $400-420M in August - unchanged. Volume up $200M, profit up zero. At this quarter's take rate that $200M is worth about $37M of revenue. - WHAT THE RAISED GUIDE IMPLIES: first-half GMS is already banked at $5.31B. Subtract it and second-half GMS has to land between $4.79B and $4.99B against $4.78B in 2H 2025 - growth of 0.2% to 4.3%. This quarter grew 34%; Q1 2026 grew 6.8%. The 10-Q credits the 34% to the World Cup by name. - THE TAKE RATE WENT THE WRONG WAY: revenue was 18.55% of GMS this quarter against 18.71% a year ago, 19.05% across FY2025 and 20.40% across FY2024. Volume compounds while the fee take shrinks. The MD and A attributes growth to higher GMS per transaction - dearer tickets. FY2025 revenue fell 1.4%. - WHAT ADJUSTED EBITDA LEAVES OUT: $69.0M of stock compensation expensed plus $27.7M capitalised into software equals $96.7M - 92% of the $105.7M adjusted EBITDA. Annualised at the first-half rate that is $269M against a $410M guide. Enterprise value of $4.47B on that guide less stock comp is 31.7 times. - THE CASH AND THE STACK: of $1.69B of cash, $1.20B is money owed to sellers. TTM free cash flow of $597.6M contains $418.3M of float; ex-float it is about $179M. Ahead of a $3.09B market cap sit $930.9M of net debt and preferred carrying a $721.1M liquidation preference accruing about $60M a year. What to watch: UP: a take rate back above 19.5% on the November print, gross stock compensation under $120M a year, and open distribution or advertising finally showing up in the other-revenue line. DOWN: a fourth quarter implied at flat or negative volume once the World Cup rolls out of the comparison. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Kopin Corporation (KOPN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 27; 8-K accepted 4:05pm ET Aug 10, after the close, so Aug 11 is the reaction): revenue $12.7M up 50.6%, loss from operations $3.5M, GAAP EPS $0.00 vs $(0.03), net income $0.83M. The stock rose 23.5% to $5.20 and closed the week at $5.50. Kopin reported revenue up 51% and its first net income in years. The operating line still lost $3.5M: the profit is a $2.3M investment gain plus a $2.1M tax benefit from a statute of limitations expiring on Korean operations closed in 2018. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, REAL TECHNOLOGY, ALL OF IT IN THE PRICE) — base-case value ~$2.66 vs ~$5.50 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value about $2.66 vs the $5.50 close on Aug 14, roughly 52% lower. Bear $0.67, base $2.41, bull $5.53 (30/45/25) on 2029 revenue of $70M/$130M/$220M at 2.5x/5.0x/7.0x EV-to-sales plus net cash. Our BULL case is 0.5% ABOVE the current price. Street: 5 buy, 2 hold, 0 sell, target $7.83. A valuation call, not a solvency call. - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 27, 2026): revenue $12.7M vs $8.5M, up 50.6%. Loss from operations $3.50M vs $5.46M. Cost of product revenue 86% of product revenue vs 94%. R and D $4.52M vs $1.95M, but $3.33M of that is FUNDED and billed back out as revenue. GAAP EPS $0.00 vs $(0.03), and Kopin publishes no non-GAAP measure at all. - WHERE THE GROWTH CAME FROM: revenue grew $4.28M, and $2.87M of that is NON-ASC-606 revenue that did not exist a year ago - $2.60M of government grant income and $0.27M of Fabric.AI collaboration income, 67% of the increase. ASC 606 growth is 16.7%, not 50.6%. PRODUCT revenue grew 1.9%, $7.50M to $7.64M. - WHERE THE PROFIT CAME FROM: below the operating line. A $2.34M gain on investments took the pre-tax loss to $1.26M, then a $2.09M tax BENEFIT - a statute of limitations expiring on Korean operations liquidated in 2018 - made it $0.83M of net income. Ex both items EPS is $(0.0191) vs a $(0.0125) bar: a 53% MISS. - THE PATTERN, NOT THE QUARTER: over the last four reported quarters Kopin booked $7.91M of cumulative GAAP net income on $15.08M of cumulative OPERATING LOSSES. The rescue item differed each time - litigation accrual, deconsolidation gain, investment marks, now a tax expiry. Trailing revenue $43.6M. - THE CASH THAT IS NOT SPENDABLE: of $50.3M of cash and restricted cash, $24.2M collateralises the supersedeas bond posted Oct 2, 2025 for the appeal of the $19.7M BlueRadios judgment. 48% of balance-sheet cash is pledged to a court, and management's own 12-month liquidity assertion uses only the $24.9M unrestricted. - VALUATION AND THE POSITIVES: 185,872,614 shares off the 10-Q cover at $5.50 is a $1.02B market cap, $997M EV, 22.9x trailing revenue - and 8.6x the $119.5M of 2030 revenue the SELL SIDE'S OWN model reaches. POSITIVES: H1 financing cash flow was NEGATIVE $1.10M, contract liabilities rose to $6.96M, no debt. What to watch: UP: Drone Dominance volume orders that land in PRODUCT revenue, not grant income, plus a successful BlueRadios appeal releasing $24.2M. DOWN: another quarter where total revenue rises but product revenue stays near $7.6M. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

York Space Systems (YSS) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:06pm ET Aug 13, after the close, so Aug 14 is the reaction): revenue $92.5M up 10.4%, gross margin 24% from 11%, GAAP loss per share $0.31. Full-year guidance cut from $545M-$595M to $375M-$405M. The stock fell 5.04% to $10.93. York grew revenue 52% in 2025, IPO'd in January 2026, and guided the year to $545M-$595M - reaffirming it word for word on May 14. On August 13 it cut to $375M-$405M. Growth did not slow. It stopped. THE CALL: SELL (3/5, REAL FRANCHISE, GROWTH GUIDE AT ZERO) — base-case value ~$9.43 vs ~$10.93 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: SELL, 3/5. Fair value about $9.43 vs the $10.93 close on Aug 14, roughly 14% lower. Bear $6.38, base $9.33, bull $13.51 (25/55/20) on 2027 revenue of $430M/$500M/$650M at 1.5x/2.1x/2.5x EV-to-sales plus net cash. The Street disagrees: 4 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell across 7 firms, consensus target $33.38. A call on the revision cycle, not on solvency. - THE QUARTER (ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $92.5M, up 10.4% but DOWN 20.5% from Q1's $116.3M. Gross profit $22.2M vs $9.5M, a 24% margin against 11%; cost of revenue FELL 5.3%. GAAP loss per share $0.31 vs $0.25; York reports no adjusted EPS. Adjusted EBITDA minus $9.5M vs minus $8.9M - WORSE, because SG&A rose $15.0M, more than the entire $12.7M gross profit gain. - THE GUIDANCE ROUND-TRIP: FY2026 revenue guidance was $545M-$595M on March 19, REAFFIRMED verbatim on May 14, then cut to $375M-$405M on August 13 - minus $180M at the midpoint (31.6%), and 30.1% below the $557.6M consensus. Against FY2025 actual revenue of $386.2M the new range is minus 2.9% to plus 4.9%, after York grew 52.3% in 2025. - THE IMPLIED SECOND HALF: first-half revenue was $208.9M, so the guide leaves $166.1M-$196.1M for H2 against $196.1M in H2 2025 - minus 15.3% at the low end. At the VERY TOP of management's own range the implied second half is $196.110M against $196.112M a year ago: flat to within two thousand dollars. The best case in the range is no growth. - WHY IT HAPPENED: 91% of Q2 revenue came from ONE customer, down from 96%. York became the first performer to COMPLETE its T1TL deliveries, putting 21 more satellites on orbit for a 42-for-42 record. The program that is essentially the whole revenue line is finished; follow-on work moves to IDIQ vehicles management concedes are slow to start. Backlog fell 7.8% to $592.0M. - THE COVENANT NOBODY READS: the Nov 2025 credit agreement sets a MINIMUM REVENUE covenant, trailing twelve months, tested quarterly. The Dec 31, 2026 test is $372.5M, and at a calendar year end that figure IS full-year revenue. The low end of the new guide, $375.0M, clears it by 0.7%. The March-guide cushion was $197M; now $17.5M. NOT a default warning: equity cures and a leverage toggle exist; York was in compliance at June 30. - THE CASH, AND WHO FUNDED THE WORK: contract liabilities - customer cash collected in advance - fell $110.3M to $18.2M. Roughly 51% of the $186.6M first-half operating burn was the float unwinding. Receivables went $11.5M to $55.8M, unbilled contract assets $76.8M to $115.0M. Cash was $534M at June 30, but All.Space took $155M out on July 8, so pro forma cash is about $379M, or $231M net of the term loan. What to watch: UP: a funded task order York must quantify in a filing, or 2027 guidance above the $617.0M minimum-revenue level its lenders set. DOWN: another quarter of falling backlog with task orders unfunded. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Legence Corp. (LGN) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 7:23am ET Aug 13, BEFORE the open): revenue $1.262B vs a $1.074B estimate, GAAP EPS -$0.37 vs a $0.37 bar, adjusted EBITDA $154.6M (+114%), gross margin 17.4% from 21.5%, backlog $5.67B (+105%), FY26 guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B. The stock fell 7.9% that session to $63.24, then closed at $66.375. Legence doubled revenue to $1.26 billion, doubled backlog to $5.67 billion and raised full-year guidance - and the stock fell 7.9% that morning. The same filing impaired $41.1 million inside Engineering and Consulting, citing lower demand for sustainability services. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, REAL BUSINESS, THEME PRICE) — base-case value ~$38 vs ~$66.375 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value about $38 vs the $66.375 close on Aug 14 - roughly 43% below. Bear $21, base $38, bull $54, weighted 25/50/25 on an 11.0% base-case discount rate. A separate frame agrees: 10x 2028E adjusted EBITDA of $715M, net of debt and the tax agreement, is $57. The Street disagrees - 8 buy, 1 hold, 0 sell across 9 firms, median target $99. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1,262.1M, UP 110.7%, against a $1,073.9M estimate - a 17.5% beat. Adjusted EBITDA $154.6M, up 114.1%, a 12.2% margin vs 12.1%. GAAP loss per share $0.37 against a $0.37 profit bar. Gross profit $220.2M at 17.4%, from 21.5%. Strip the impairments and operating income was $34.5M, a 2.7% margin. - THE MIX - THE WHOLE EPISODE: Engineering and Consulting revenue grew just 5.5% to $206.9M and its gross profit FELL 12.4% to $56.1M. Installation and Maintenance grew 162.0% to $1,055.2M. Engineering is now 16.4% of revenue, from 32.7%. Existing-building work fell from 68.5% of revenue to 37.8%. Data centers went from 35.9% to 62.5%, or $789.5M. - THE IMPAIRMENT: $21.6M of goodwill plus $19.5M of long-lived assets, $41.1M in total, all in ONE reporting unit inside Engineering and Consulting. The 10-Q gives the cause twice: a decline in projected cash flows driven by lower customer demand for sustainability services. FY2025 carried another $25.0M, so $46.6M has come off in twelve months. - BACKLOG AND GUIDANCE: backlog and awarded contracts $5.67B, up 104.6%; book-to-bill 1.2x vs 1.3x. But contracted remaining performance obligations are $4.02B, so $1.65B (29%) is awarded, not contracted. Installation is 80.2% of backlog, from 68.0%. FY26 guidance raised to $4.7B-$4.8B and $565M-$585M. Q3 revenue midpoint $1.25B is BELOW Q2. - BALANCE SHEET AND VALUATION: cash $292.0M, total debt $1,026.4M, net leverage 1.6x - genuinely low. First-half free cash flow $152.6M; receivables plus unbilled improved from 104 to 94 days. Share count is 108.1M fully exchanged (76.9M Class A plus 31.2M Class B), so market cap is $7.17B, not the $8.03B screens show. TRA owed $342.7M. EV/EBITDA 13.8x. What to watch: UP: Engineering and Consulting revenue back above 15% growth with adjusted gross margin over 32%, or the shares near $46 (20x owner earnings). DOWN: a second impairment in that segment, or book-to-bill under 1.0x. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Celcuity (CELC) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 8-K accepted 4:15pm ET Aug 13, AFTER the close): no revenue line at all, R&D $31.1M (DOWN from $36.4M), SG&A $35.0M (up 361%), net loss $78.9M, GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate, adjusted loss $1.07. The stock closed +6.2% at $92.00 the next session. Celcuity spent $1.13 on selling and administration for every $1.00 of research this quarter - a year ago it was $0.21, and research actually shrank. It is the first quarter in company history that the commercial line is the biggest one. THE CALL: HOLD (3/5, REAL DRUG, FULL PRICE) — base-case value ~$81 vs ~$92.00 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: HOLD, 3/5. Fair value about $81 vs the $92.00 close on Aug 14 - roughly 12% below. Bear $38, base $79, bull $135, weighted 30/45/25. Cash plus risk-adjusted pipeline sum-of-the-parts, NOT a DCF: there is no revenue and no earnings. Probability of success: 85% approved label, 85% mutant sNDA, 35% first line, 12% prostate. The Street disagrees flatly - 12 buy, 0 hold, 0 sell, consensus target $153.22. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): NO revenue line at all - Celcuity has never recorded product sales. Operating expense $66.1M vs $44.0M. R&D $31.1M, DOWN from $36.4M. SG&A $35.0M vs $7.6M, up 361%. Net loss $78.9M vs $45.3M. GAAP loss per share $1.44 vs a $1.16 estimate; non-GAAP adjusted loss $1.07 - nine cents BETTER than that same estimate. - THE CROSSOVER - THE WHOLE EPISODE: SG&A is now $1.13 per $1.00 of R&D, against $0.21 twelve months ago, and it is now 53% of the entire cost base. Of the $27.4M SG&A increase the company attributes $14.5M to people, $10.8M to launch preparation and $2.1M to admin - with $23.4M of the $27.4M explicitly commercial. R&D fell on $7.0M less trial cost and $5.0M less in milestones. - THE 28-CENT GAP, DECOMPOSED: $0.21 of it is the NON-CASH $11.5M loss on extinguishing a term loan Celcuity prepaid with $137.0M of convertible-note proceeds. Non-cash items totalled $20.2M: stock compensation $6.9M, amortised debt issue costs $1.5M, investment accretion $0.3M, extinguishment $11.5M. Strip it and the gap to consensus is seven cents. - CASH, RUNWAY AND THE SHARE COUNT: $754.0M of cash and investments at Jun 30; operations consumed $55.4M in the quarter. $50.0M goes to Pfizer within 60 days of the Jul 14 approval, leaving $704.0M - 12.7 quarters at this burn, 10.1 at a launch-ramped $70M. The 10-Q cover shows 48.93M shares, but 6.15M pre-funded warrants sit in basic EPS: real market cap $5.07B, not the $4.49B on the feed. - THE ASSET: REVTORPYK (gedatolisib), licensed from Pfizer in 2021, was FDA-approved Jul 14, 2026 for HR+/HER2- PIK3CA wild-type advanced breast cancer and given a preferred NCCN Category 1 listing. Shipping starts late Q3 2026. The VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort hit its endpoint (hazard ratio 0.50, median PFS 11.1 vs 5.6 months); an sNDA follows in Q3. What to watch: UP: two quarters of REVTORPYK shipments tracking the Street's $392.4M 2027 revenue line, or an early VIKTORIA-2 readout. DOWN: an equity raise struck below $92, or a Q4 with nothing on the revenue line. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.

Bending Spoons (BSP) Q2 2026 — Q2 2026 (ended June 30; 6-K accepted 7:07am ET Aug 13, BEFORE the open): revenue $704.2M vs $682.8M, adjusted EPS $0.46 vs $0.24, GAAP diluted EPS $0.28, adjusted operating margin 54%, organic revenue growth just 3%, net debt $4.09B. The stock fell 16.5% that session, to $40.92, then to $39.31. Bending Spoons beat on revenue, nearly doubled the adjusted EPS bar and posted a 54% adjusted operating margin - and the stock fell 16.5% the same morning. Strip out the businesses it bought and organic growth was 3%, after 13% in 2025. First-half adjusted operating income of $689M produced $250M of free cash flow: 36 cents on the dollar. THE CALL: AVOID (3/5, GREAT OPERATOR, DEMANDING PRICE) — base-case value ~$20 vs ~$39.31 today. KEY METRICS: - CALL: AVOID, 3/5. Fair value about $20 vs the $39.31 close on Aug 14 - roughly 48% below. Bear $13, base $19, bull $35, weighted 30/50/20, on an 11.6% cost of equity (1.48 beta). Every branch sits under the price. The Street disagrees: 6 buy, 3 hold, 0 sell across the 9 firms we can name, mean target $47.55. A price call, not a quality call. - THE QUARTER (3 months ended Jun 30, 2026): revenue $704.2M, UP 126%, vs a $682.8M estimate - a 3.1% beat. Adjusted EPS $0.46 vs a $0.24 bar; GAAP diluted EPS $0.28 vs $0.11. Adjusted operating income $381.1M, a 54% margin vs 49%. Net income $177.0M, up 171% - helped by a $19.5M other-income credit and a $26.2M income tax BENEFIT. - THE ORGANIC SPLIT - THE WHOLE EPISODE: organic revenue growth was 3%, against 7% in 2024 and 13% in 2025. So 123 of the 126 points of growth were BOUGHT: AOL, Eventbrite, Harvest, MileIQ, Tractive, Vimeo. Tractive and WeTransfer led organically; Remini and Splice shrank. The prospectus says they underwrite on returns, not organic growth. - CASH CONVERSION: first-half adjusted operating income of $689M produced $254.2M of operating cash flow and $250.3M of free cash flow - 36 cents on the dollar, and 35 cents in the same half of 2025, so it repeats. The bridge: $177M of reorganisation and deal cost, $161M of interest paid, a receivables build. Acquisitions took $2.29B, new debt $2.57B. - LEVERAGE - READ FOOTNOTE 3: net debt $4.09B ($4.88B of borrowings less $793M cash). The reported 2.4x ratio is struck against an adjusted EBITDA that is pro forma for a full year of ownership and credits achieved savings plus certain EXPECTED savings. On trailing REPORTED adjusted operating income of $1,055M it is 3.9x. Cost of debt: 10.7%. - GUIDANCE AND VALUATION: Q3 revenue guided to $733M-$745M; FY2026 to $2.78B-$2.82B, a midpoint 2.8% BELOW the $2.88B consensus - that is what moved the stock. Our FY2026 owner earnings: $1.49B guided adjusted operating income, less $297M of recurring reorganisation and deal cost, less $430M interest, taxed 25% = $560M, or $0.83 a share. 47x. What to watch: UP: a full year of cash conversion held above 50%, or an acquisition disclosed under 6x post-transformation cash operating income. DOWN: organic revenue growth staying near 3% while the purchase multiple rises toward the Airtable end of the range. Also on YouTube: @ChargedAlpha DISCLAIMER: For informational and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Do your own research before any investment decision. Learn investing free in the Charged Alpha app: https://chargedalpha.com/app?source=youtube&ref=video Educational only. Not financial advice.