Chuck’s Commentary - Trump Has Two Options For Iran: Escalate… Or Capitulate + The End Of Eric Swalwell

Chuck Todd opens with the unraveling of Trump's Iran peace talks and the president's threat of a naval blockade, breaking down why the administration has far less leverage than it's letting on, why Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz puts Trump in a corner with only two real choices—escalate or capitulate—and why markets have been dangerously complacent as the economic hit accelerates and consumer confidence sinks below COVID-era lows. From there, Chuck digs into the collapse of Eric Swalwell's career amid sexual abuse allegations and the bipartisan push to expel him along with three other members of Congress, the wide-open and underwhelming California governor's race left behind by a weak Democratic field and Tom Steyer's charmless self-promotion, the curious Roger Stone–Tulsi Gabbard connection and their shared Russia sympathies, and Trump's promise of preemptive pardons for White House staff—making the case for why Congress urgently needs a commission on the pardon power. Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Bay of Pigs debacle under John F. Kennedy and why that event still reverberates today, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.  Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.  Refresh your wardrobe with Quince. Go to https://Quince.com/chuck for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns.  Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 04:00 Trump threatens naval blockade after Iran peace talks fall apart 05:00 Trump admin has less leverage in talks than they’re letting on 05:30 Trump’s stupid rhetoric is not harmless 06:00 Control over the Strait is biggest piece of leverage & Iran has it 07:00 Will Trump send in ground troops if he can’t get what he wants? 08:30 Trump only has two choices: Escalate or capitulate 09:30 If Trump’s lucky he can get the Obama nuclear deal, but that’s unlikely 10:45 Markets will likely panic, they’ve been too complacent so far 12:15 Trump is begging for deal to save face and the Iranians know it 13:15 Trump keeps declaring victory despite reality being the opposite 15:00 Trump doesn’t understand regime, thinks they’re transactional like him 16:00 Iran looking like past failed military operations like Vietnam & Iraq 18:00 Iran saw Libya give up nuclear ambitions & regime was toppled 20:00 Economic hit is happening, consumer confidence lower than COVID 21:30 As Iran talks fell apart, Trump & Rubio were attending UFC fight 23:00 Rubio knows better, but has fallen in line anyway 24:30 Eric Swalwell’s campaign falls apart after allegations of sexual abuse 25:30 Rumors of Swalwell’s behavior existed for years 27:00 Swalwell is only denying criminal behavior, not all the allegations 28:45 Swalwell is trying hard to say he’s not Bill Cosby… he’s Bill Clinton 29:30 Push to expel Swalwell & possibly 3 other members of congress 31:00 It’s politically convenient for leadership to agree to boot them all 33:00 Will congress hold their members to a higher standard than the POTUS? 35:00 It’s likely all four members will get expelled  35:45 California dems had been reluctantly rallying around Swalwell  37:00 Major Democrats passed on running for CA gov, leaving weak field 38:15 Hard to blame Newsom for not setting up an “heir apparent” 39:00 Tom Steyer has spent an insane amount of money to promote himself 40:00 You need to have charm in politics, and Steyer doesn’t have it 41:30 Should prominent California dems all endorse the same person? 43:30 Schiff, Padilla, Harris & Newsom may need to play kingmaker 45:00 Likely there will be two weak candidates heading into November 46:30 Stories coming out that Roger Stone saved Tulsi Gabbard 47:15 Both Stone & Gabbard have been pro-Russia… coincidence? 47:45 Trump promises preemptive pardons for WH staff 48:45 We need a congressional commission on pardons 53:45 ToddCast Time Machine - Too many huge historical events to choose from 55:45 April 1961 - Bay of Pigs 56:30 Nixon meets with Castro after Eisenhower refused to 58:00 There a back and forth over whether to embrace or shun Castro 58:30 Cold War tensions were very high when the Bay of Pigs happens 59:15 Bay of Pigs was a presidential approved operation before JFK took office 1:01:00 Kennedy’s hands were tied by his predecessor 1:01:45 The plan required air superiority, but Castro’s air force had survived 1:02:45 Castro arrests more than 100,000 suspected dissidents 1:04:30 Most of the participants are captured 1:05:00 Kennedy promised a free Havana that never transpired 1:05:45 Cuban Americans became reliable Republican voters under Reagan 1:07:15 Ask Chuck 1:07:30 Will congress ever vote against rebuilding military after president launches war? 1:12:00 Why is the market not really reacting to the Iran war? 1:14:30 As norms become tested, will congress every reassert its role? 1:20:45 Outside of your Top 5 senate flips, what are your 6-10? 1:25:45 Suggestions to fix the NBA 1:28:45 Does anyone use Camp David since Trump doesn’t?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.