Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Polling Numbers Should Terrify The GOP + Trump Has No Good Options For Iran War

Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign.  Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free! Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. 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Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump 09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters 10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border 10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base 12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump 14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president 16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises 18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters 20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself 21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things after himself 24:30 Republicans expected ethics in government to improve & they haven’t 25:45 Both parties still have almost identical unfavorability ratings 26:15 The Democratic brand hasn’t improved amongst swing voters 28:15 Voters of both parties don’t want leaders to work across the aisle 29:15 Neither side is incentivized to compromise 31:15 Voters are rewarding confrontation 33:45 Dems more trusted on healthcare, Republicans trusted on crime 34:15 Almost every other issue is up for grabs for both parties 34:45 Neither party has trust on dealing with AI 36:15 There’s a huge opportunity for independents in this political climate 36:45 There’s a huge enthusiasm gap favoring the Democrats 38:00 This is a political disaster in the making for Republicans 38:30 Iran war is more unpopular than worst polling for Iraq & Vietnam 40:15 Trump’s only escalation option in Iran is to send in ground troops 41:15 If Trump wants to escalate he better have a plan 41:45 Far more damage to American military assets than we were told 42:30 The Iranian framework for a deal will likely be the one agreed to 43:30 There is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily 44:00 Trump risks total political collapse if he escalates in Iran 45:00 Tucker Carlson forced to face facts in recent interview 46:00 Tucker is a combination of Pat Buchanon and Roger Ailes 47:45 Carlson feels like someone who is trying to build a movement 49:00 Expanding congress would fix SCOTUS Voting Rights Act ruling 50:30 There will be angry voters in the south after this ruling 52:00 Republicans could pay a political price due to backlash from SCOTUS 53:45 If Republicans try to disenfranchise black voters, they could juice turnout 54:45 Trump is more focused on targeting disloyal Republicans than Democrats 56:00 Janet Mills drops out, Dems trying to come around on Graham Platner 56:45 Platner race feels like mirror image of 2016 campaign for president 1:02:15 ToddCast Time Machine - May 6th 1937 - The Hindenburg Disaster 1:03:15 Crowds arrived to watch the Hindenburg  1:04:30 Commercial zeppelin travel had existed for 30 years already 1:05:15 The Hindenburg carried the symbols of Nazi Germany 1:06:00 In 34 seconds the entire airship was destroyed 1:06:45 “Oh The Humanity” becomes an iconic term from broadcasting 1:07:15 The recording wasn’t broadcast live, but was presented as breaking news 1:08:30 Airships fell out of fashion and airplanes made them uncompetitive 1:09:15 The Hindenburg didn’t just fail technically, it failed publicly 1:10:15 Ask Chuck 1:10:30 Have you fallen into the normalization trap? Trump has impeachable offenses 1:16:00 Thoughts on Adam Hamilton running as a Dem in Kansas? 1:19:30 Has any president been as intentionally divisive as Trump? 1:21:45 Take on the expansion of March Madness tournament? 1:26:15 How much impact could the Forward Party have? 1:31:45 Thoughts on the weekend in sportsSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.