CIA Iran expert: This war will change global power

In this episode of The Brink, we sit down with Norman Roule to unpack the unfolding war with Iran and the strategic thinking behind the campaign against the Islamic Republic.We discuss how the military operation has unfolded so far, why Iran’s response has followed a predictable pattern of drones and ballistic missiles, and what the campaign reveals about the strengths and weaknesses of the Iranian regime. Norman explains why Tehran may avoid closing the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic miscalculations that may have shaped Iran’s early decisions, and how Gulf states are navigating a conflict happening on their doorstep.The conversation also explores the broader geopolitical stakes. We examine the role of intelligence cooperation between the United States and Israel, the limits of air power in forcing regime change, and the difficult question of what a post-conflict Iran might look like. Could the regime collapse, or could the country descend into fragmentation and unrest?Finally, we discuss the long-term implications for the Middle East, from the future of the Abraham Accords to the possibility of deeper security integration among Gulf states. This is a wide-ranging and sobering conversation about war, intelligence, and the uncertain path toward a more stable Middle East.Watch the full uncut interview HERE: https://open.substack.com/pub/thebrinkpodcast/p/cia-iran-expert-this-war-will-change?r=63dafp&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=trueDon't forget to check out our merch store: https://www.thebrinkmerch.com/Chapters 00:00 Introduction03:24 Inside the US Campaign Against Iran05:42 Why Iran Won’t Close the Strait of Hormuz08:00 Strategic Failures Inside the Iranian Regime10:05 Why This Was the “Moment” to Act11:54 The Courage of the Iranian People15:00 Trump’s Strategy: Keep the Enemy Guessing17:02 The Kurdish Question and Risks of Fragmenting Iran19:28 Why Iranian Protests Haven’t Overthrown the Regime22:09 Can Air Power Bring Down the Islamic Republic?25:37 US–Israel Intelligence Cooperation Against Iran30:32 The Gulf States’ Real Position on the War35:33 Why the Gulf Feels Abandoned by the International Community38:10 Europe, Trump and the Fracturing of the Western Alliance40:00 Will the Abraham Accords Expand After This War?42:12 How Defeating Iran’s Proxies Could Transform the Middle East46:57 The Intelligence Case for War With Iran49:40 Imminent Threats, Terrorism and the Logic of Military Action Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.