Civil War, Global Conflict, Extreme Market Volatility & The Fourth Turning with Neil Howe

Interview recorded - 25th of September, 2024On this episode of the WTFinance podcast I had the pleasure of welcoming back Neil Howe. Neil is the co-author of the ground breaking “The Fourth Turning” and author of the updated version of the book “The Fourth Turning is Here: What the Seasons of History Tell Us About How and When This Crisis will End” which I had the pleasure of reading. During our conversation we spoke about the Fourth turning, the current political shifts, the challenges with democracy, nullification of governments, impact on markets, financial repression, risk of recession and more. I hope you enjoy! 0:00 - Introduction 3:19 - What is the Fourth Turning?8:24 - Where are we in the cycle?13:29 - Cycles increasing in time?17:19 - Political shifts driven by leaders?22:49 - Extreme centralisation during dictatorship28:59 - What can be learnt from pushes to dictatorship?34:40 - The issues with democracy?38:40 - Five outrageous predictions41:55 - What would succession look like?46:30 - Nullification of the federal government49:00 - Geopolitical brinkmanship51:02 - How do Fourth turning impact markets?54:30 - Financial repression56:30 - Pre-empt and create anti-fragile systems?1:00:25 - What is happening in the economy?1:04:20 - What is the economic lag?1:06:26 - Passive investing impacting1:13:35 - One message to takeaway from our conversation?Neil Howe is an acclaimed historian, economist, and demographer and the bestselling author (with William Strauss) of The Fourth Turning, as well as over a dozen books on demographic and social change. The nation’s leading thinker on today’s generations—who they are, what motivates them, and how they will shape America’s future—Howe is Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye Risk Management, an independent financial research firm, as well as President of LifeCourse Associates, which serves hundreds of corporate, nonprofit, and government clients. He lives with his family in Great Falls, Virginia.Neil Howe - LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/neilhowe/Twitter - https://twitter.com/HoweGenerationHedgeye - https://app.hedgeye.com/WTFinance - Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/wtfinancee/Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/67rpmjG92PNBW0doLyPvfniTunes - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/wtfinance/id1554934665?uo=4Twitter - https://twitter.com/AnthonyFatseas