Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville on forecasting the war in Ukraine

In this episode of 80k After Hours, Rob Wiblin interviews Clay Graubard and Robert de Neufville about forecasting the war between Russia and Ukraine.Links to learn more, highlights and full transcript.They cover:Their early predictions for the warThe performance of the Russian militaryThe risk of use of nuclear weaponsThe most interesting remaining topics on Russia and UkraineGeneral lessons we can take from the warThe evolution of the forecasting spaceWhat Robert and Clay were reading back in FebruaryForecasters vs. subject matter expertsWays to get involved with the forecasting communityImpressive past predictionsAnd moreWho this episode is for:People interested in forecastingPeople interested in the war in UkrainePeople who prefer to know how likely they are to die in a nuclear warWho this episode isn’t for:People who’d hate it if a friend said they were 65% likely to come out for drinksPeople who’d prefer if their death from nuclear war was a total surpriseGet this episode by subscribing to our more experimental podcast on the world’s most pressing problems and how to solve them: type ‘80k After Hours’ into your podcasting app. Or read the transcript below.Producer: Keiran HarrisAudio mastering: Ben CordellTranscriptions: Katy Moore