“Comment on “Forecasting is Way Overrated, and We Should Stop Funding It”” by Jhrosenberg

Originally posted as a comment on this post. Reposting for visibility and since it is lengthy enough to be a standalone post. I plan to post a more comprehensive update in future describing FRI's impact and theory of change in more detail. Summary [Relevant context/COI: I'm CEO at the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI), an organization which I co-founded with Phil Tetlock and others. Much of the below is my personal perspective, though it is informed by my work. I don't speak for others on my team. I’m sharing an initial reply now, and our team at FRI will share a larger post in future that offers a more comprehensive reflection on these topics.] Thanks for the post — I think it's important to critically question the value of funds going to forecasting, and this post offers a good opportunity for reflection and discussion. In brief, I share many of your concerns about forecasting and related research, but I'm also more positive on both its impact so far and its future expected impact. A summary of some key points: Much of the impact of forecasting research on specific decision-makers is not public. For example, FRI has informed decisions on [...] ---Outline:(00:27) Summary(05:29) Examples of impact(09:21) AI timelines, impact, and adoption forecasts drive a huge amount of career decision-making, attention, etc.(11:46) Relevant comparison class for forecasting research(12:58) My critiques of forecasting research(15:36) Some notes on FRI-style forecasting research vs. other forecasting interventions(16:38) Reasons for optimism about future impact --- First published: April 28th, 2026 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/vDw9tf4BTHgYshJW5/comment-on-forecasting-is-way-overrated-and-we-should-stop --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.