Conflict in the Middle East: Reverberations for Food Systems

While the global food system has largely adjusted to the disruptions in agricultural commodities and fertilizers following the invasion of Ukraine, the new conflict in the Middle East introduces a new set of challenges at a time when markets and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the world’s oil and natural gas, as well as fertilizers, transit. Concerns about potential impacts on production sites in the region have added to the uncertainty. These developments have implications for countries heavily reliant on Gulf producers for oil, gas, and fertilizers, as well as for food-import dependent economies in the Gulf, should agricultural shipments to the region face prolonged delays. While the immediate effects on trade flows and prices are still unfolding, higher energy and fertilizer costs can influence agricultural production decisions and, over time, shape food security outcomes. Understanding these dynamics early is important for anticipating where pressures may emerge and how they may interact with existing vulnerabilities. As global food systems become increasingly exposed to conflict-related and geopolitical risks, timely analysis is essential for informing both rapid response and longer-term resilience efforts. Clear insights into potential stress points and market adjustments can help governments, value chain actors, development partners, and humanitarian organizations prepare and respond effectively. The event will feature: Presentations from IFPRI experts, who will provide an up‑to‑date assessment of these developments and discuss their implications for vulnerable low‑ and middle‑income countries. A second panel of senior representatives from governments, international organizations, and the private sector, who will reflect on how they are addressing the immediate effects of the crisis and share perspectives on priorities for strengthening resilience and improving risk management strategies going forward. An opportunity for questions, comments, and discussion. Moderated by: Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI Opening Remarks Ismahane Elouafi, Executive Managing Director, CGIAR Johan Swinnen, Director General, IFPRI Ramifications for Asian Economies Albert Park, Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank Food Security Considerations and MDB toolkits Renaud Seligmann, Director for Strategy and Operations, World Bank Planet Vice Presidency Early Analyses Market Responses to the Conflict in the Middle East: Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus, IFPRI Understanding Vulnerabilities at the Country Level: James Thurlow, Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling, IFPRI Comments on Rapid Analysis: Mark Diamond, Economist-IBRD Lead, World Bank Group Team, International Financial Institutions Dept., Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) External Panel on Rapid Response and Risk Management Moderated by: Anna Gawel, Managing Editor, Devex Humanitarian Needs: Rania Dagash-Kamara, Assistant Executive Director, Partnerships and Innovation, World Food Programme (WFP) Considerations for Food Import Dependent Gulf Countries: Josef Schmidhuber, Chief Sustainability Officer, Pure Harvest Smart Farms, UAE Considerations for India: Rakesh Kapur, Joint Managing Director, Indian Farmers Fertilizers Cooperative (IFFCO) Food Security Investments in Times of Conflict: Jonah Gold, Managing Director of Insurance, US International Development Finance Corporation More about this Event: https://www.ifpri.org/event/conflict-in-the-middle-east-reverberations-for-food-systems/ Subscribe IFPRI Insights newsletter and event announcements at www.ifpri.org/content/newsletter-subscription